HDR1012000160030615951500MILK PRODUCTION HDR2012000160030615951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS Released June 15, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. May Milk Production Up 1 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during May totaled a record high 12.0 billion pounds, 1 percent above production in these same States in May 1994. April revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds was 2 percent more than April 1994. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,478 pounds for May, 21 pounds above May 1994. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.10 million head, 2,000 head less than both May 1994 and April 1995. During the January-March period, the 22 major States produced 33.4 billion pounds of milk, 85.8 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 13.9 billion pounds for May 1995. Notice "U.S. Supply and Utilization of Milk"is available in this issue on page 5. For information call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Da 1-1 (6-95) HDR2012000160030615951500MILK COWS & PROD. BY QTR., US, 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,506 9,516 3,951 4,095 37,560 38,971 104 Apr-Jun : 9,530 4,188 39,916 Jul-Sep : 9,539 4,007 38,217 Oct-Dec : 9,524 3,983 37,933 : Annual : 9,525 16,129 153,626 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030615951500MILK COWS & PROD. BY MO. 22 SELEC. STS 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,092 8,090 1,343 1,394 10,870 11,280 104 Feb : 8,082 8,088 1,236 1,291 9,990 10,441 105 Mar : 8,074 8,103 1,401 1,444 11,315 11,698 103 Apr : 8,080 8,097 1,396 1,417 11,282 11,477 102 May : 8,097 8,095 1,457 1,478 11,799 11,964 101 Jun : 8,107 1,388 11,249 Jul : 8,104 1,389 11,260 Aug : 8,108 1,369 11,102 Sep : 8,109 1,318 10,689 Oct : 8,104 1,354 10,970 Nov : 8,098 1,312 10,624 Dec : 8,094 1,370 11,090 : Annual : 8,096 16,334 132,240 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030615951500MILK COWS & PROD. BY ST. MAY 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,232 1,254 1,770 1,770 2,181 2,220 102 FL : 178 164 1,400 1,330 249 218 88 ID : 205 229 1,580 1,560 324 357 110 IL : 165 163 1,350 1,380 223 225 101 IN : 145 144 1,370 1,380 199 199 100 IA : 264 262 1,295 1,350 342 354 104 KY : 170 163 1,035 1,130 176 184 105 MD : 92 93 1,295 1,310 119 122 103 MI : 328 326 1,525 1,515 500 494 99 MN : 610 595 1,395 1,420 851 845 99 MO : 198 193 1,270 1,300 251 251 100 NM : 166 188 1,777 1,700 295 320 108 NY : 722 704 1,430 1,460 1,032 1,028 100 NC : 91 88 1,475 1,480 134 130 97 OH : 296 288 1,345 1,390 398 400 101 PA : 637 639 1,430 1,470 911 939 103 TN : 159 156 1,090 1,120 173 175 101 TX : 404 400 1,435 1,370 580 548 94 VT : 156 156 1,370 1,420 214 222 104 VA : 130 129 1,275 1,340 166 173 104 WA : 261 266 1,750 1,755 457 467 102 WI : 1,488 1,495 1,360 1,400 2,024 2,093 103 : 22 State: Total : 8,097 8,095 1,457 1,478 11,799 11,964 101 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030615951500MILK COWS & PROD. BY ST APR 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1994-95 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 1994 : 1995 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,228 1,254 1,705 1,680 2,094 2,107 101 FL : 178 164 1,425 1,355 254 222 87 ID : 201 227 1,480 1,480 297 336 113 IL : 165 163 1,340 1,370 221 223 101 IN : 145 144 1,330 1,320 193 190 98 IA : 263 262 1,220 1,300 321 341 106 KY : 171 163 1,030 1,135 176 185 105 MD : 92 93 1,250 1,270 115 118 103 MI : 328 326 1,415 1,440 464 469 101 MN : 610 595 1,330 1,365 811 812 100 MO : 198 195 1,260 1,280 249 250 100 NM : 158 185 1,772 1,645 280 304 109 NY : 724 705 1,360 1,400 985 987 100 NC : 91 88 1,450 1,480 132 130 98 OH : 297 288 1,305 1,360 388 392 101 PA : 635 639 1,360 1,420 864 907 105 TN : 159 157 1,080 1,110 172 174 101 TX : 402 400 1,470 1,400 591 560 95 VT : 158 156 1,330 1,360 210 212 101 VA : 130 129 1,275 1,335 166 172 104 WA : 260 267 1,665 1,675 433 447 103 WI : 1,487 1,497 1,255 1,295 1,866 1,939 104 : 22 State: Total : 8,080 8,097 1,396 1,417 11,282 11,477 102 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1995 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030615951500SUPPLY & UTLIZ. OF MILK US 92-94 Supply and Utilization of Milk: United States, 1992-94 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Mil Lbs : Milk Production : 150,885 150,582 153,622 Net Imports of Ingredients (M.E.) 2/ : 145 127 148 Net Change in Storage Cream (M.E.) 3/ : -5 5 -1 Total Supply : 151,025 150,714 153,769 : Utilization (Milk Equivalent) : Used in Manufactured Products : Creamery Butter, Total M.E. : 30,478 29,493 29,127 M.E. of Butter from Whey Cream : 4,150 4,500 4,592 Net Milk Equivalent : 26,328 24,993 24,535 : Cheese : American : 29,263 29,415 29,676 Other : 20,195 20,456 21,438 : Cottage Cheese, Creamed : 592 557 524 : Canned Milk : Evaporated, Sweetened Condensed : 1,872 1,178 1,184 Bulk Condensed Whole Milk : Unsweetened : 417 244 205 Sweetened : 301 324 277 Dry Whole Milk : 1,227 1,130 1,227 Ice Cream and Other Frozen Dairy Products, : Total M.E. : 14,191 14,058 14,540 M.E. of Butter and Condensed Milk Used : in Ice Cream : 2,367 1,995 1,997 Net Milk Equivalent : 11,824 12,063 12,543 : Other Manufactured Products 4/ : 188 199 216 Total Manufactured Products : 92,207 90,559 91,825 : Available for Use in Fluid Products : Sold by Dealers : 54,244 54,361 53,583 Sold by Producers Directly to Consumers 5/ : 1,050 967 1,081 Total Available for Fluid Products : 55,294 55,328 54,664 : Used Where Produced : Fed to Calves : 1,436 1,408 1,353 Consumed as Fluid Milk and Cream : 455 428 404 Total Used by Producers : 1,892 1,836 1,758 : Residual 6/ : 1,632 2,991 5,522 Total Utilization : 151,025 150,714 153,769 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes on next page. HDR2012000160030615951500SUPPLY & UTILIZ. FOOTNOTES Supply and Utilization Footnotes 1/ Milk production plus the milk equivalent (ME) of net imports of dairy manufacturing ingredients and net out-of-storage movement of cream equals total supply. Data on milk used in manufacturing products are based on total milkfat required to produce the products and include the milk equivalent of any imported dairy ingredients used. 1992 and 1993 revised. 2/ Whole milk equivalent (milkfat basis) of net imports of dairy manufacturing ingredients such as frozen cream and butterfat-sugar mixtures. 3/ Whole milk equivalent of net out-of-storage movement of fluid and plastic cream during the year. A negative figure represents a net movement of cream into storage. 4/ Whole milk equivalent of dry cream, malted milk powder, part-skim dry milk, dry or concentrated ice cream mix, dehydrated butterfat, and other miscellaneous products using milkfat. 5/ Sales directly to consumers by producers who sell only milk from their own herds. Also includes milk produced by institutional herds. 6/ Residual, includes minor miscellaneous uses and any inaccuracies in production, utilization estimates, or milk equivalent conversions. HDR2012000160030615951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 105,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 190,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). HDR2012000160030615951500RELIABILITY TABLE Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.5 1.0 391 163 7 315 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.0 190 96 5 187 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. HDR2012000160030615951500EEO STATEMENT & NXT RPTG DATE The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 14, 1995 *********************** The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.