AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 345 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 .SYNOPSIS...STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) 15Z AND 18Z RUC IS THE ONLY NWP MODEL HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING REALISTIC. NEW 18Z META NOT GOOD BUT BETTER THAN 12Z META. THAT SAID...CURRENT SURFACE LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MOVE TOWARD THE KOMA AREA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FORCING TO PRODUCE MAINLY RA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA TONIGHT UP THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. DRY PUNCH SHOULD SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE PRECIP AFTER 06Z BEFORE VORT MAX ARRIVES TOWARD MORNING. LINGERING SHRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BREAK FOR MID DAY. NEXT VORT MAX TO ARRIVE ABOUT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. ...08... && .LONGER TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INTO THE LONG TERM ARE THREE-FOLD. FIRST IS THE RESIDUAL CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. THE SECOND IS MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST... OR EVEN ISOLATED FREEZE FAR NORTH. THE THIRD IS A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING IN OR NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD POOL AT 500MB...ALONG WITH PVA...WILL PRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAPID CLEARING COMMENCING BY LATE EVENING. MONDAY WILL SEE BREEZE TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE MERCURY FALL...BUT A LIGHT WEST WIND AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT A FREEZE FAR NORTH. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...FROST ALSO ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE. AFTER THAT...QUIET THRU WEDNESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FRONT MAY STALL TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY... BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST. AFTER THAT...A POSSIBLE TROF SATURDAY AT 500MB WITH A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MODERATELY GOOD THRU THE LONG TERM. WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. ...REA... && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ 08/REA il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1142 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MRNG UPDATE WAS PCPN TRENDS...BUT ALSO BUMPED UP WNDS A BIT AND LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO. CURRENT SITUATION HAS ANTI-CYCLONIC JET SEGMENT ARCING FM KS INTO SRN GRTLKS AHD OF RCKYS UPR LVL TROF. UPR LVL DVRGNC ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN INCRG OVR NE...AND FM TX INTO IL. SHRT WV LIFTING ACRS KS HAVING MOST IMPACT ON LCL WX WITH DEEP LYR QG FORCING LIFTING INTO NE AND WRN IA. THEMODYNAMIC FORCING IN TERMS OF H85/H7 THETA-E ADVCTN AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LIFTING NWD WITH Q CNVGNC TOO AS XPCD SO WE HAVE PLENTY OF UVM IN PLACE. ONLY MINIMIZING FACTOR IS LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATTM. HWVR LYR THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES INDC THAT WE SHOULD START SEEING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER BY MID-LATE AFTN. PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LOW LVL MSTR IN PLACE UPSTREAM SO WE PROBABLY WILL NOT CLR OUT TIL AFT HEATING IF AT ALL WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE OUR SFC BASED THREAT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH 15Z RUC MUCAPES NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND SHOWALTERS ONLY DOWN TO MINUS 2 THRU 03Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCRS TO AOA 50KTS ABT THAT TIME HWVR SO WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SVR TSTMS DRNG THE EVE EVEN WITH THAT MINIMAL INSTABILITY...MOST LIKELY HAIL OR WND. WL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. INCREASED WNDS SOMEWHAT TOO BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCRG PRES FALL CNTR LIFTING INTO ERN NE. 16Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW INVOF KHUT WITH PRIMARY WRMFNT INTO AR...BUT SCNDRY BNDRY STARTING TO SHOW UP INTO IL. WITH UPR LVL DVRGNC AND WRMFNT JUST TO THE S...WE MAY SEE SOME GRAVITY WV DVLPMT LATE WITH ELY WND GUSTS LATER TDA WHICH IS QUANTIFIED BY RUC DUCT FUNCTION 00-03Z. WITH EAST WNDS AND PCPN...DID NOT XPC MUCH OF A RISE TDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST. PRETTY MUCH LEFT IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF A DEGREE DOWNWARD. NO CHGS TO LATER PDS OUTSIDE OF BLEND INTO TNGT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1000 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA... WITH MOST OF CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SRN BRANCH FLOW. FAIRLY POTENT SHRTWV NOTED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD UPR RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND DEPARTING 1032MB SFC HI NEAR JAMES BAY. LLVL AIRMASS OVER UPR GRT LKS UNDER THE RDG IS QUITE DRY PER 00Z APX/GRB SDNGS...WHICH SHOW KINX -28/-18. ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TEMP THRU PROFILE IS ABV 0C...WBLB TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ARE MAINLY BLO 0C... EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SFC LYRS ON THE GRB SDNG. BUT SFC WBLB TEMPS OVER MUCH OF FA BLO 0C WITH SFC DWPTS AS LOW AS 10F AT A FEW PLACES...AND ACTUAL 01Z TEMP AT CMX DOWN TO 32 (DEWPT 26). OTRW... THICKENING HI CLDS NOTED ACRS THE FA AS HIER LVL MSTR STREAMING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF LIFTING SHRTWV AND OVRRNG THE LLVL COLD...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HI. RA IN ADVANCE OF SFC/H85 WARM FNT IN THE MID MS VALLEY HAS REACHED AS FAR N AS A MSP-MSN LINE AT 00Z. H85 DWPT UP TO 7C AT DVN JUST N OF H85 WARM FNT. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE TIMING ARRIVAL OF PCPN SHIELD ADVANCING FM THE S AND PCPN TYPE WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC/ETA GUIDANCE INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF PCPN WL REACH MNM ARND 06Z...ONT-MQT-ISQ ARND 09Z...AND CMX-WHITEFISH PT ARND 12Z...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOING FCST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/HIER H85 DWPTS TO THE S OVERSPREAD FA IN ADVANCE OF WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH CONCERNED INITIAL DRY AIR WL RETARD NWD PROGRESSION OF PCPN...OBSVD LEADING EDGE OF RA IN RSNBL AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER MODEL FCSTS (MAY EVEN BE A TAD FARTHER N). GFS/ETA ALSO SHOW AXIS OF H4-2 DVGC OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS WELL WITH APRCH OF MAIN SHRTWV...SO COMBINATION OF WAD/ MOISTENING/UPR DVGC SHOULD BE ENUF TO SATURATE A SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF ATMOSPHERE. PCPN TYPE CONCERNS PRIMARILY DUE TO LO WBLB TEMPS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF PCPN SHIELD. HOWEVER...RUC AND ETA PLAN VIEW/ SNDG FCSTS INDICATE H100-85 THKNS/WBLB PROFILE AT TIME OF PCPN ARRIVAL WL BE ARND 1320M/SUFFICIENTLY DEEP > 0C FOR JUST RA AS H85 DWPT QUICKLY RISES ABV 0C AND RADIATION FM CLD DECK PUSHES TEMP ABV 0C IN ABSENCE OF NR SFC CAD. ON THE OTHER HAND...CRUDER 12Z/18Z GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW MAINLY SN FALLING OVER AT LEAST THE NRN PORTIONS OF FA (EVEN THOUGH GFS MOS FCST INDICATES RA). CONSIDERING LO WBLBS OBSVD...HAVE OPTED TO PUT IN A MIX WITH SN/PL OVER THE NRN TIER ZNS AT THE ONSET OF PCPN. HOWEVER...DURATION OF SUB FRZG TEMPS AT MOST PLACES WL BE JUST AT ONSET OF PCPN WHEN EVAP COOLING MECHANISM WL COME INTO PLAY BEFORE HIER DWPTS/TEMPS IN CLD LYR ARRIVE TO BOOST SFC TEMP ABV 32F. SINCE SFC TEMPS TOPPED OUT WELL ABV FRZG TDAY AND SFCS ARE WARM UNDER THICKENING CLD DECK...NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SN ACCUMULATION OR FZRA AS DURATION OF SUB 32 AIR TEMP WL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO LOWER SFC TEMPS TO FRZG. COORDINATED WITH APX. KC .LONG TERM... THERMAL PROFILES IN BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND ETA40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COLD RAIN EVENT EARLY ON SUN...THEN TURNING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SUN AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT. EXPOSED SURFACES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPS ABOVE 925MB DROP TO BELOW 0C...AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MID 30S AS CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH CONSTANT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP WARMING TO A MINIMUM. LATE SUN EVENING ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH CWA. BY MON MORNING...MAIN COLD FRONT REACHES WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOVES THROUGH CWA BY MON AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVELS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -10C PER ETA. MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE ALSO PRETTY UNSTABLE FROM COOLING ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS DROP AROUND -30C. THIS WOULD GIVE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...AND WITH ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICTING GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY DIURNAL CU THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND MAYBE EVEN GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON MON BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS 500MB SHORTWAVE SKIRTING ALONG SOUTHERN CANADA APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. BY TUE AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE CWA...AND GFS INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT ON THE 290K-300K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GFS INDICATES 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM WITH FRONT...SO ELEVATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUE SLIDING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED. MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA AT THIS TIME...ONE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE OTHER SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST REACHING THE SW STATES BY FRI...THEN MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PER GFS. GFS SHOWS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MORE...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THU. ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HAVING IT MOVE THROUGH CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MORE INTERESTING IS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA TUE NIGHT AND REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT +12C 850MB ISOTHERM APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA AT 12Z WED...AND MOST OF CWA UNDER THIS WARM AIR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF IS STILL WARMER THAN GFS WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +16C ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. MIXING DOWN FROM +12C WOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS WAY ABOVE CURRENT EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE VALUES OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL UP HIGHS TO LOWER 70S TO REFLECT THE WARM AIR AND MECHANICAL MIXING FROM 850MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING WARMER AS SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER BEHIND WARM FRONT MIGHT INHIBIT SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST. GFS DEPICTS SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS WARMUP LATE IN DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH FROPA AS LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INTERIOR ZONES APPROACH -4C...AND DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS AS LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7C/KM. SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN TO CWA AS UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LEVELS. LAROSA && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 530 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION...UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF WW 119. ------------------------------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION-------- .DISCUSSION...A LINE OF OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW AREA IS NOT EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE LINE TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. MAY SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WAS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. RUC ESTIMATES OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AROUND 20-30KTS. FOR SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE IN THE ZONES AT THIS POINT. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT. IF THE LINE CLEARS THE AREA...ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE STRONG STORMS. BUT IF SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP NEAR THE RIVER...EASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN THE BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE WEST...WILL NOT GET SAME WARMING/INSTABILITY AS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA MONDAY...WITH AVN SHOWING DPT IN THE MID 30S. NOT SURE AIR WILL REALLY BE THAT DRY...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. INTRODUCED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND INCLUDED SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BOUNDARY AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST QPF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 UNTIL 7. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...SVA MSZ053-059>061 LA...SVA LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026 AR...SVA ARZ074-075 && $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 330 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION...A LINE OF OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW AREA IS NOT EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE LINE TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. MAY SEE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WAS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. RUC ESTIMATES OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AROUND 20-30KTS. FOR SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE IN THE ZONES AT THIS POINT. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT. IF THE LINE CLEARS THE AREA...ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE STRONG STORMS. BUT IF SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP NEAR THE RIVER...EASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN THE BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE WEST...WILL NOT GET SAME WARMING/INSTABILITY AS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA MONDAY...WITH AVN SHOWING DPT IN THE MID 30S. NOT SURE AIR WILL REALLY BE THAT DRY...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. INTRODUCED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND INCLUDED SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BOUNDARY AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST QPF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 UNTIL 7. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...SVA MSZ053-059>061 LA...SVA LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026 AR...SVA ARZ074-075 && $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 830 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004 CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVER ALL BUT FAR SRN PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC NOT INDICATING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF DRYING THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMS BUT LOW LVLS SHOULD SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE DRYING AS NE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG LOWER DEW POINTS...AND TEMPS INTO THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE LOWER TEMPS OVER NRN 2/3RDS OF CWA FOR TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES. SRN AREAS NOT LIKELY TO SEE AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMP DROPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF CLOUDS. RUC ALSO INDICATING MORE OF A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS AND FORECAST. .MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES TO THE S OF THE AREA...WITH NE TO E FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT FCST INITIALIZED WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ MLF/RAP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 356 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... SFC PRESSURE FIELD INDICATES FRONT CURRENTLY ON TOP OF THE ILM CWA. NOT MUCH PUSH LEFT TO THIS BOUNDARY...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES A RESEMBLENCE OF A SURGE IN THE CAPE LOOKOUT AREA MOVING SOUTHWARDS. SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY AND KLTX 88-D. THIS INDICATES SFC FRONT NOT ALL THAT POWERFUL ANYMORE. WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AND LIFT IT NORTH DURING SUN. PROGGED SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN INDICATES RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE FA...WITH ITS AFFECTS FELT MORE THAN THE COLD FRONT...TONIGHT AND SUN. AS A RESULT...SYNOPTIC NE-E-SE FLOW IN THAT ORDER WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...WHEREAS SC COUNTIES WILL GO FROM AN E-SE DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL TONIGHT THRU MON NITE. AS A RESULT...CULD SEE SOME STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG EARLY SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF FROM PLACING IT IN THE GRIDS AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT DECIPHER. SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUN. STILL BORDERLINE ON POPS...BEING UVVS NOT ALL THAT EXCITING AND TEMPS AT 7H WARMING A FEW DEGREES. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT AT THIS TIME. PROGRESSION OF UPPER FEATURES TO FINALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA...WITH A DECENT UPPER AMPLITUDE TROF TO SETTLE IN BY TUE. SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY CAA ON TUE...WHICH WILL BE PARTIALLY COUNTERED SOMEWHAT BY A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD. WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS ON TUE DUE TO THE UPPER TROF LINE LAGGING AND A VORT SWINGING THROUGH IT. WINDS TO DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 3 AM WED MORNING...UNDER DECENT RAD CONDITIONS. WILL GO WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. FOR THE REST OF WED AND THU...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME CU POSSIBLE ON THU. FOR FRI AND SAT...RATHER NOISY AND CHAOTIC 5H PICTURE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CWA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROF AND AWAITS THE NEXT IMPULSE FOR RE-AMPLIFICATION. WILL INCLUDE POPS FRI AND POSSIBLY LATE SAT...OR MAY JUST HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN. && .MARINE... SOMEWHAT SLOPPY WIND FIELD OVER THE ILM CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS NOT QUITE REACHED CAPE LOOKOUT...BUT AS THE SHAPE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES A WIND SHIFT LINE IS NOTED PARALLEL TO THE COAST. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE WIND FIELD AND I HAVE FOLLOWED IT INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT EAST WINDS OVER THE NC WATERS BY AROUND 00Z...AND OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...WHETHER IT IS DRIVEN BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS OR JUST THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOT MUCH PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL DOWNPLAY ANY SURGE...10-15 KT SHOULD DO IT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP THINGS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH 20 KT AND 4-5 FT. MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS A SECONDARY SURGE LATE TUE AS UPPER TROF MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP SPEEDS CAPPED AT 20 KT...AND OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL HOLD SEAS IN CHECK. BENIGN CONDITIONS WED-THU WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE...RESPECTIVELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WILMINGTON 60 79 64 81 / 10 10 10 50 FLORENCE 60 83 62 80 / 10 10 10 50 LUMBERTON 59 81 62 81 / 10 10 10 50 MYRTLE BEACH 61 75 64 78 / 10 10 10 50 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ MARINE...RAS PUBLIC...DCH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 200 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 GOOD MODEL AND FCST CONISTENCY AGAIN TODAY...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO FCST THROUGH DAY 7 (NEXT FRIDAY). FRIDAY'S GFS DID DO BETTER WITH 500 MB UPPER LOW AND ASSOC PCPN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA THAN ETA...AND WITH GFS GOOD CONTINUITY ON NEXT WED SYSTEM WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS MODEL WITH OVERALL FEATURES. .SHORT TERM... STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS NOW UP IN CANADA WITH 85H WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO AROUND 20 KTS SOUTH AND 40 KTS FAR NORTH ACCORDING 18Z RUC ANALYSIS. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SEEING SFC WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH PAST HOUR OR TWO AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THUS EXPECT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM ZFP ISSUANCE. UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH PCPN LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO ECNTRL SD THIS EVENING AS SFC-800 MB LAYER MOISTENS...BUT STILL LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. TO OUR NORTH...STRONG LOW OVER NRN SASK TO MOVE EAST INTO MANITOBA WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO DVL REGION 00-02Z THEN INTO THE VALLEY TOWARD 06Z AND THEN INTO FAR ERN AREAS BEFORE 12Z. ONLY NARROW BAND OF HIGH/MID CLDS WITH FRONT WITH NEBRASKA SYSTEM KEEPING MOISTURE AT BAY. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN MN TONIGHT SOME MOISTURE GETS BROUGHT NORTH JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND PER PREV FCST WOULD EXPECT A DECENT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER NW/WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE IN LOW POP FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN (ESPECIALLY SOUTH). ON SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION. QUESTION IS ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS EAST AND ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTN WITH -30C 500 MB TEMP COLD POOL DROPPING OVR NE ND/NW MN. 500 MB VORT SWINGS FROM NW ND INTO SE ND/CNTRL MN SUN AFTN AND WITH COOL POOL OVERHEAD DID MENTION ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH OF VORT TRACK (GENERALLY DVL-GFK-ADC LINE). ONE NEGATIVE IS STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL INTO SE ND...AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THERE FOR NOW. 850 MB COOLING CONTINUES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS MON NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT CANADIAN LOW. LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY A FEW DEGREES...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS. ON TUESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WITH WESTERLY SFC FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP WARMING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S. WEDNESDAY REMAIN A TOUGH CHALLENGE...AS STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH NRN AREAS BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. SHARP TEMP GRADIENT LIKELY DURING DAY. DID MODIFY HOURLY GRIDDS ON WEDNESDAY TO BETTER DEFINE COOLING DURING DAY NORTHERN AREAS. DID CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER WED AFTN...THOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT IS MEAGER AND INSTABILITY WEAK. BEST BET LOOKS LIKE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA...ENDING BY 12Z THU. .LONG RANGE (THU-SAT)... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN CANADA FORCING POLAR VORTEX SOUTH TOWARD ONTARIO AND KEEPING AREA IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NEXT LOW AND FRONT IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY DUE ON FRIDAY...WITH AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKING MEAGER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ DTR nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1029 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004 .UPDATE... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NEARLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING... EXCEPT FOR A FEW CU NEAR TN LINE. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BACK DOOR COLD FRONT S OF GMU. POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE AIR LOCATED SW OF SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR WORKING S ALONG BLUE RIDGE AS WELL. BELT OF MODEST DEW POINT POOLING...60 DEG... LOCATED ALONG FRONT. ADJUSTED WIND FOR FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ALTHOUGH TRIMMED CLOUD AMOUNTS DOWN THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL E COMPONENT SHOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUD DEVLOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. RUC LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHEN ADJUSTING FOR CLOUDS. KGSO SOUNDING YIELDED CAPE OF 1600 WITH AN 80 DEGREE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT NEAR 60. KFFC SOUNDING CAPPED AT 700...WITH WARM ADVECTION APPARENT AT THAT LEVEL IN 12Z ANALYSIS. THIS WARM ADVECTION COMES TO AN ABRUPT HALT SOMEWHERE NEAR SAVANNAH RIVER AS FLOW TURNS E ACROSS RIDGE AXIS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO ISOTHERMS...LIMITING CAPPING S PORTION OF AREA. ADJUSTING DEW POINT TO VALUES ALONG FRONT...AND USING MAX T NEAR 85 WOULD YIELD A SOUNDING JUST BARELY CAPPED AT 700 MB. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE TN LINE...AND LEAST E BORDER. LITTLE WIND SHEAR S PORTION OF AREA. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BEHIND FRONT N PORTION...WITH MODEST SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAIL WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG FRONT...AND SOME DRYING MID LEVELS. && .FIRE WEATHER... KGSO AND KFFC SOUNDINGS YIELD MIXING HEIGHTS ABOUT 100 FT BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES. ADJUSTED TRANSPORT WIND TO FOLLOW LATEST THINKING ON FRONTAL TIMING. MINOR CHANGES TO RH FIELDS BASED ON LATEST ADJUSTED 06Z AVN DEW POINTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 83 60 74 61 / 40 40 30 50 AND 85 62 78 62 / 30 30 30 50 CLT 81 58 72 61 / 30 30 30 50 HKY 79 57 70 58 / 30 40 30 60 AVL 78 56 72 54 / 40 40 40 70 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1000 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... THE WEATHER WAS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING,BUT WILL PROBABLY GET STORMY OVER SOME AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT 13Z, SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSON, TENNESSEE TO JUST SOUTH OF CROSSVILLE, SEPARATING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH. BY MID-MORNING, A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE NIGHT, HAD LIFTED NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BNA WAS MOIST, BUT RELATIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RATHER RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRYING SURGES NORTHWARD OUT OF MISSISSPPI AND ALABAMA. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND PROVIDE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR CONVECTION. BY MID AFTERNOON LI'S DECREASE TO AROUND -4 OVER THE MID STATE AND THE SWEAT INDEX INCREASES FROM 116 TO A LITTLE OVER 300. ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY SEND TEMPERATURES TO 80 DEGREES OR ABOVE AT MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS). PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 1.25 INCHES, IMPLYING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. MID-LEVEL DRYING TODAY SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS. THE VIL OF THE DAY IS 40, WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL YESTERDAY. BELIEVE 12Z NGM GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL PROBABLY GO WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE TEXT AND USE POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE. THE NGM MAY BE KEYING ON WEAK 700MB CAP DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, WHICH SHOULD BE COMMON IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WILL PROBABLY AMEND FORECAST TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AREA-WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND ADD THE MENTION OF "WARM AND HUMID." WILL ALSO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 FOR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TODAY, AND BUMP PLATEAU TEMPERATURES INTO THE "MID TO UPPER 70S." FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON (AND, ACTUALLY, THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL). && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH NW-NCNTRL THROUGH SUN. && $$ 19 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 733 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... NO PLANS TO CHG THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION TO THE WEST NEAR DRT BCMG BETTER ORGANIZED. RUC/MESOETA CONT THE TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG THE CDFNT THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVING MCS EWD ACRS THE CWA TDA...AND THEN STALLING OVER THE ERN CWA THIS EVENING. WITH SOILS GETTING A GOOD SOAK LAST NIGHT... SEE NO REASON TO DROP/CHANGE WATCH AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... REMAINS OF LARGE BOW ECHO OVR THE ERN CWA SPREADING OUT WITH MAIN THREAT OF SVR OVER THE SERN COUNTIES OVR THE NEXT HOUR SO MIGHT DROP THE SVR WATCH ON THE NEW PACKAGE IF BOW EXITS THE SE CWA. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THE NE CWA INTO NORTHEAST TX AS THE MCS LIFTS ENEWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION OVR N TX ALONG THE CDFNT...AND THEREFORE PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD HIGHER GFS QPF AMOUNTS. REDEVELOPING CONVECTION ALREADY STARTED IN THE WRN CWA WHERE GOOD CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG THE CDFNT AND THIS REDEVELOPMENT WAS INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS/ETA. WILL LEAVE FFA AS IS FOR NOW AND MAY ADJUST LATER DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST...SO MAY BE ABLE TO DROP WEST. HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO END BY TONIGHT THE CDFNT MOVES TO THE COAST AND INFLOW PUSHES EAST...HOWEVER CONT CHC POPS SUNDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FNT...THEN DRYING MON-TUE AS THE UPR TROF MOVS TO THE EAST...NO CHANGES FOR WED- THU WITH SLGT CHC POPS AS MSTR RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 61 78 58 / 70 50 40 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 61 76 54 / 70 50 40 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 64 80 59 / 50 40 20 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 62 75 58 / 60 50 40 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING THRU 4 PM. && $$ 01/13/PM/JB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 300 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT TERM... MUCH MORE TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING THAN THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO...AS BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES STREAMING E/NEWD AROUND 30 MPH BETWEEN I-20/30 AND A LAMPASAS...WACO...PALESTINE CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. FROM U/A ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK...SEEMS A BOUNDARY AROUND 850MB IS LOCATED IN THIS VCNTY AND WILL ONLY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY SEWD BY THIS AFTN...AS PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK LLJ 20-30 KTS FEEDING 11-13 DEG C 850 MB DEW PTS INTO THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER IT...ALONG WITH RRQ OF 70-90 UPPER JET ANCHORED FROM OK...NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY WITH SOME PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY ENE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF IT THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. DIFFICULT TEMP/POP FCST TO SAY THE LEAST THROUGH THIS EVE. LEANING STRONGLY TO THE ETA/UKMET/RUC FCST HERE AS OTHER MODELS TOO BULLISH/FAR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR...LOW LVL FOCUS/QPF. WILL GO HIGH POPS I-20 CORRIDOR TO KTPL-KPSN LINE AS DRIER AIR NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. WILL GO BELOW MOS IN BOUNDARY AREA...WITH HIGHS A CAT WARMER ON BOTH NW/SE FRINGES OF CWA. CONFIDENCE WAVERING THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T IGNORE SATELLITE...U/A...AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN ROCKIES THEN SWEEPS THROUGH TNGT AND WILL CONTINUE 20-30% POPS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHAOTIC SFC PATTERN WITH BOUNDARIES GALORE AND MSTR AVAILABILITY/DEPTH...BEFORE FINALLY SEEING UPPER FLOW GO W/NWLY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO N TX IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER GT LAKES ON MON WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS/COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS. && .LONG TERM... ONE MORE MILD SPRING DAY TUES...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES AND PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN A RETURN TO BREEZY SLY WINDS AND WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. MANY DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN MODELS LATE WEEK ON ROCKIES SYSTEM AND SLOW APPROACH OF SFC FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. VERY SUSPECT ON USUALLY TOO FAST/STRONG GFS SOLUTION AND WILL BUY OFF ON SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. THUS...CONTINUED VERY LOW POPS BY WEEK/S END AND THE WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE. && 05/ .PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 55 76 54 / 60 20 20 0 WACO, TX 70 56 77 53 / 90 30 30 0 PARIS, TX 74 52 74 50 / 40 20 20 0 DENTON, TX 75 54 75 52 / 30 20 20 0 MCKINNEY, TX 74 54 75 52 / 30 20 20 0 DALLAS, TX 72 55 76 54 / 60 20 20 0 TERRELL, TX 71 55 75 52 / 80 20 20 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 56 76 52 / 80 30 30 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 57 78 53 / 60 30 30 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 900 AM MDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC CONFIRMS RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS IN THAT SHORT WAVE OVER COLORADO WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TWO TIERS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FORECAST ALREADY SENT. $$ .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DLF ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1023 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .PUBLIC...HRLY TEMPS RUNNING CPL DEGREES WRMR THAN FCST VALUES. RUC SHOWG DCRSG MSTR DURING THE AFTN HRS. THRFR HV UPPD MAXES A CPL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SXNS WHR SKIES HV BEEN MSTLY CLR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HV BEEN TOYING WI IDEA OF POPS TDY SINCE THR IS ACTVTY OFFSHR ATTM. WL GO WI 20 POPS FOR MJRITY OF AREA. THIS IS IN LINE WI WHAT MIDSHFT WAS THINKG ALSO. .MARINE...MSAS DEPICTS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH STRUGGLED STH'WD THRU AREA YESTERDAY PRESENTLY TAKING A BREATHER NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC. FRONT TRANSFORMS ITSELF TO TITLE OF "WARM" LIFTING BACK N ONCE AGAIN THRU CWFA TODAY. IN THE INTERIM...OFFSHORE BUOYS ONCE AGAIN REGISTERING 3 FOOT SEA HEIGHT BEATS EVERY 7 SECONDS ALONG WITH EASTERLY 5-11 KT FLOW. SURF CAMS/SPOTTERS VISUALLY/VERBALLY SPEAK OF LETHARGIC 1-2 FT WAVES LAPPING INTO THE SURF ZONES FROM DUCK FIELD RESEARCH FACILITY PIER ALONG THE NOBX...S THRU ATLANTIC BEACH AND DOWN TO SURF CITY PIER. NEED-LESS-TO-SAY...LOW RIPS FOR ALL BEACHES WITHIN CWFA RESPONSIBILITY TODAY. WINDS VEER SE THEN S REMAINING ON THE WEAKISH SIDE (AS DO SEAS/SOUND WATERS) AS AFORMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK N DURING THE COURSE OF DAY AND NIGHT. CHANGES TO THE PLACIDNESS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS S-SW P-GRAD BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD SCA STANDARDS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS/SOUND WATERS ALSO TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT COURSE OF DAY AS S-SW FLOW KICKS INTO 20-25 KT RANGE BY NIGHTFALL. STILL STAYING THE 4-6 FT NORTHERN LEG...5-7 FT SOUTHERN LEG SEA HEIGHT COURSE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST 06Z NOAA WAVE WATCH III/OSBW04/09 DATA THROWS UP SOME 7 FT MAX HEIGHTS FOR NORTHERN LEG ENVIRONS...AND 8-9 FOOTERS CRUISING THROUGH 41013 WATERS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. REASON FOR NWW3 HIGHER SEA STATE NUMBERS COULD BE THE FACT THAT LAST NIGHTS GFS RUN SLOWS ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT INTO REGION AND OFF COAST BY SOME 3-6 HRS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS DUE IN PART AS FRONT ORIENTS ITSELF WITH PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT THUS SLOWING FRONT AS IT NEARS COAST. LATEST GFS ALSO DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES FORMING ALONG FRONT TO THE S AS IT NEARS ATLANTIC WHICH AGAIN WOULD ADD A BIT OF DRAIN TO THE GAIN. HENCE...PROLONGED SW FLOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY REASON FOR HIGHER SEA STATE NUMBERS SHOWING UP IN MARINE LEG PICTURE. FRONT SHOULD SLIP OFF COAST ANYWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TUESDAY THERE-BY SHIFTING 15-25 KT SW FLOW TO NW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM TEXAS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD CWFA/MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS BEGIN A BIT BRISK (15-20 KTS) WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FALL OUT QUICKLY LATER IN DAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE 1030MB HIGH SLIDES UP AND OVER REGION. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ CGG/GC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1010 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... VARIOUS MSAS PARAMETERS AND SAT IMAGERY DEPICT SFC BNDRY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. LATEST RUC HOLDS ENUF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO MSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS...AND WORD IT BECOMING MSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE OR IN TODAYS CASE...THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...PUSHES INLAND. RESULTANT WIND BNDRY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SURE TO INTERACT...AND WITH BORDERLINE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...WILL GO AHEAD AND STICK A 20 POP. MAY TWEAK MAXES A FEW DEGREES UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. && .MARINE... SATELLITE IMAGES DOING THE BEST JOB OF DEPICTING THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. LIGHT ENE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CWF RESPONSIBILITY. DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. RUC STILL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON INITIAL CONDITIONS AND I WILL FOLLOW ITS SLOWER VEERING TREND WITH THE WINDS. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...BUT THE TEXT OF THE CURRENT CWF LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THERE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WILMINGTON 80 63 80 58 / 20 10 50 70 FLORENCE 85 62 80 53 / 20 10 50 70 LUMBERTON 81 61 80 53 / 20 10 50 70 MYRTLE BEACH 77 63 77 59 / 20 10 50 70 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ MARINE...RAS/ALEX PUBLIC...RALF/JAN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1100 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .UPDATE... LATEST HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT DRAPED NORTH OF THE AREA BUT EXACT POSITION HARD TO PIN DOWN. LLVL MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILL AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WAA FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE STARTED TO THIN AS PREDICTED BY THE RUC/MESOETA/GFS. SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING IN MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...NOW INCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO REALIZE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...GIVEN THICKNESS SCHEME. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES IN NON-MOUNTAIN REGIONS...ESPECIALLY NC PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTRA HEATING. 06Z MESOETA WAS INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD HAVE KEPT THICKER CLOUDS CONFINED TO WESTERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NEW 12Z RUN JUST IN...HAS A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL KEEPS THE FRONT HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LONGER THAN THE GFS. HAVE CUT BACK ON SKY COVER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD INCREASE IN MOCLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS ARE WELL IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS FAR AS CONVECTION FOR TODAY...APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST CONVECTION WOULD MOST LIKELY INITIATE IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NC MTNS WHERE SOME OMEGA AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE EXIST. HOWEVER...INDICES ARE MARGINAL. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 AND BEST CAPE OFF MODIFIED SOUNDING OF NEAR 1300. ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IF THAT. MEAN LAYER FLOW STRONGER TODAY SO ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING SHOULD HAVE SOME MOVEMENT TO AVOID FLOODING CONCERNS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD PARAMETERS AND ADJUSTED MIXING HEIGHTS UP SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPS FORECAST. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ LAMB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 958 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ENTERING W TN AND NW MS...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. RUC MODEL AND 06Z MESO-ETA INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF EAST TN. MODIFIED BNA AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ABOUT 600 TO 800 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 C. THE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS WEAKER THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THUS...HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO WESTERN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AND REMOVE ANY AFTERNOON WORDING...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY OTHER CHANGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga, TN 80 61 69 47 / 50 100 70 10 Knoxville, TN 80 60 66 46 / 50 100 90 10 Bristol, TN 78 59 64 42 / 40 100 90 20 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 67 45 / 50 100 70 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 815 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... WILL ISSUE FLS AND CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. ALSO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RUN. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ BOYD 01 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 222 PM MDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY) ...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THE RAIN AND SNOW END... UPPER SHORTWAVE MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS OBVIOUSLY COME THROUGH A LOT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE TROUGH MUCH SHARPER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY. IN FACT...IT ALMOST CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BRIEFLY. IN RADAR IMAGERY...YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST PUEBLO COUNTY AT THIS HOUR...WITH LOTS OF NICE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WRAPPING AROUND IT. THE CLOSED-OFF NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM VS THE FASTER PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE THAT WAS EXPECTED...ACCOUNTS FOR THE GREATER INTENSITY AND SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN WAS THOUGHT. IF ONLY WE'D KNOW THIS YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM WAS NO SLOUCH...BRINGING 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS MORNING...AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE GRASS IN COLORADO SPRINGS. LEADVILLE REPORTED 4 INCHES IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA...AND AN ESTIMATED FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY. BELOW 6K...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE COS AIRPORT HAS RECORDED AT LEAST 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE PUB AIRPORT. BASED ON PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM THE RADAR...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THIS IN A FEW AREAS...SUCH AS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY...NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN INDICATED IN ISOLATED AREAS. ALSO...A COUPLE ALERT SENSORS AROUND PUEBLO INDICATE .16 INCHES...WITH ONE OVER NORTHWEST PUEBLO COUNTY INDICATING .28 INCHES. ANYWAY...SYSTEM IS TRACKING EAST SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE EXTENDED SOME LOW GRADE POPS INTO THE EVENING OVER THE COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND STARTING TO LOSE SOME INTENSITY...SO LOW GRADE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE AS IT TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THINGS START TO DRY OUT. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS...ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD TONIGHT...DUE TO THE COLDER AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON GUIDANCE...60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE SNOWPACK HAS RESPONDED WELL TO ALL THE MOISTURE. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE AVERAGE FOR THE ARKANSAS WAS BACK UP TO 93% OF AVERAGE...WITH THE RIO GRANDE BACK UP TO 96% OF AVERAGE. .LONG TERM... (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND WINDS INTO MID WEEK...WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MON NIGHT-TUE...A DRIER AND WARMER WX PATTERN ON TAP THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE TUE. H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +4C TO +8C ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH MODELS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS TO NEAR H5...WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TUE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS THE SW MTS TUE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH SOME CU BUILDUPS EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE VIRGA...AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. TUE NIGHT-SUN...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WED...WITH ETA MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT PAC NW SYSTEM...DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUE NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UTAH BY 00Z THU. 12Z GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM... CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE NEVADA AT THE SAME TIME...KEEPING WARM AND DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS DO AGREE ON INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WED...WITH WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WED. WITH MODELS DIVERGING...WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST INTACT...BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP THU WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH IF SLOWER SYSTEM PREVAILS...MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPSLOPE AND UPPER SUPPORT NOT JUXTAPOSED. AT ANY RATE...SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT...KEEPING A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND 9000 FEET. ON SUNDAY...GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND PARTING PAC NW SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. -MW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 530 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT TERM... MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING OF THE RAIN. CURRENT HTX/BHM RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF RAIN OVER ALABAMA...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY IT WILL GET INTO NORTHWEST GA. RUC MODEL WAY TOO FAST AND WILL GO WITH ETA TIMING WHICH PUTS IT INTO NORTHWEST GA BETWEEN 4 TO 6 PM...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL STAY OUT OF CENTRAL GA UNTIL MONDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END LATE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL CHANCES WITH LIFTED INDICES RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND CAPES LESS THAN 800...HOWEVER K INDEX RUNNING AROUND 35 FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA...AND WITH SEEING THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY OVER AL...WILL GO WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY ON TUESDAY AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FROST IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM... MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE SE U.S. COAST FINALLY FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. SYSTEM SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO DELAY PASSAGE OF MAIN TROUGH UNTIL LATE TUE. THIS WILL MEAN SHRA/TSRA AND ACCOMPANYING LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVE LATER AND STAY LONGER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MON N HALF OF CWA...BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CEILINGS...PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY...NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOK GOOD WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DRY SFC AIR MASS SHOULD PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THUS NO SOONER THAN 06Z FOR ATL AND FTY...09Z FOR AHN AND CSG...AND AFT 12Z FOR MCN. FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN IFR MID-LATE MORN MON. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR UNLIKELY. VISIBILITY...LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. FOR ATL...THIS IS CENTERED AROUND 18Z MON. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MID TO LATE MORN MON FOR ATL...FTY...INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AHN AND CSG...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MCN. GREATER CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY TOWARD AFTERNOON MEANS MORE ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CIGS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR IN HEAVIER TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY MCN AFT 18Z MON. WX...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PCPN FOR ANY TAF SITES UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. FOR ATL-AHN...ONLY ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK OF PCPN AS SHRA. GREATER THREAT FOR TSRA S/SE PORTION OF CWA...I.E...MCN FOR MON AFTERNOON. SEVERE TSRA NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE SE PORTION OF CWA AFT 18Z MON. WIND...WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA CURRENTLY AGAIN PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. AGAIN TODAY...DIRECTION HOVERING CLOSE TO 180. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR WEST SIDE OF S WESTERN PORTION OF STATE...E SIDE OF S EASTERN PORTIONS OF STATE. AS CURRENT SFC LOW MOVES NE OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MOVES UP FROM S AL BY MON MORN CONTINUING CHAOTIC WIND PATTERN. AGAIN...GRADIENT WEAK AND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME NW ACROSS N PORTION OF CWA BY MIDDAY MON...BUT S-SW WINDS CONTINUE S PORTIONS OF CWA UNTIL 00Z TUE OR LATER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 63 72 50 68 / 60 80 10 00 ATHENS 62 73 49 71 / 60 80 10 00 GAINESVILLE 61 71 48 69 / 80 80 10 00 ROME 61 71 47 70 / 80 80 10 00 COLUMBUS 64 76 52 73 / 40 70 40 00 MACON 63 76 51 73 / 20 70 60 00 && .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 17/19 ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 140 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... AIRMASS OVER LMK FA CONTINUES TO RECOVER NICELY AFTER THIS MORNINGS BAND OF PCPN. AXIS OF 1000+ SBCAPES FROM KFTK TO KBWG AS OF 16Z, AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVEN NUMEROUS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BDY NOW OVER SWRN IND AND WRN KY. LAPSE RATES BTWN 800 AND 600MB NOT OPTIMALLY STEEP PER RUC SOUNDINGS, WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. HWVR WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CHCS CERTAINLY GOOD FOR SOME THUNDER. WIND FIELDS AND INCOMING POOL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB SUGGEST ANY STG/SVR STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGH WINDS. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES MAINLY KLEX EASTWARD. BEST CHCS OF PCPN LOOK TO EXIT FA LATER THIS EVENING, WITH EXCEPTION OF AREAS S/E OF A KBWG-KLEX LINE, WHERE JET STREAK RELATED ASCENT MAY KEEP SCT SHRA GOING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROF THEN DIGS INTO ERN CONUS MON, WITH A SMALLER SCALE WAVE DROPPING INTO OH VLY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL INDICATE SOME SPOTTY -SHRA POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAINLY IN KSDF/KLEX VICINITIES. 850MB THERMAL TROF REMAINS IN AREA TUE, YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY WED MORNING IN RURAL/VALLEY AREAS E OF I-65 SHOULD CURRENT FCST TRENDS VERIFY. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE EXTENDED RUNS OF LATE...THREE DAYS OF VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WED NITE AS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW KICKS IN EARLY THURS WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEARLY 5-7 ABV NORMAL THURS AND FRI. TROUGH OVR PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST FRI...A FEW MORE CLOUDS FRI BUT DRY. TROUGH ENTERS GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION SAT WITH SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA AND STALLING OUT...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SAT AND SUN WHEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT MONDAY. SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1205 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RUC MODEL RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP CURRENTLY IN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NORTHEAST INTO MID STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BUMPED POPS UP A TAD EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ BOYD 01 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1217 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .AVIATION... IFR CIGS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY BECOME MVFR IN THE LAST HOUR AS CLOUDS DECREASE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP WORKING FURTHER SE AS WELL. THUS...WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS FOR AN HOUR FOR KDFW AND KFTW WITH NEW TAFS...HOLDING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AN EXTRA HOUR FOR KDAL. KACT SHOULD STAY MVFR A BIT LONGER...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO GO VFR AS WELL. LIGHT FLOW...WET GROUND AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME VERY LOW CLOUDS TO FROM TOWARD 11-12Z TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY. 80 && .SHORT TERM... MUCH MORE TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING THAN THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO...AS BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES STREAMING E/NEWD AROUND 30 MPH BETWEEN I-20/30 AND A LAMPASAS...WACO...PALESTINE CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. FROM U/A ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK...SEEMS A BOUNDARY AROUND 850MB IS LOCATED IN THIS VCNTY AND WILL ONLY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY SEWD BY THIS AFTN...AS PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK LLJ 20-30 KTS FEEDING 11-13 DEG C 850 MB DEW PTS INTO THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER IT...ALONG WITH RRQ OF 70-90 UPPER JET ANCHORED FROM OK...NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY WITH SOME PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY ENE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF IT THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. DIFFICULT TEMP/POP FCST TO SAY THE LEAST THROUGH THIS EVE. LEANING STRONGLY TO THE ETA/UKMET/RUC FCST HERE AS OTHER MODELS TOO BULLISH/FAR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR...LOW LVL FOCUS/QPF. WILL GO HIGH POPS I-20 CORRIDOR TO KTPL-KPSN LINE AS DRIER AIR NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. WILL GO BELOW MOS IN BOUNDARY AREA...WITH HIGHS A CAT WARMER ON BOTH NW/SE FRINGES OF CWA. CONFIDENCE WAVERING THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T IGNORE SATELLITE...U/A...AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN ROCKIES THEN SWEEPS THROUGH TNGT AND WILL CONTINUE 20-30% POPS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHAOTIC SFC PATTERN WITH BOUNDARIES GALORE AND MSTR AVAILABILITY/DEPTH...BEFORE FINALLY SEEING UPPER FLOW GO W/NWLY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO N TX IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER GT LAKES ON MON WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS/COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS. && .LONG TERM... ONE MORE MILD SPRING DAY TUES...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES AND PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN A RETURN TO BREEZY SLY WINDS AND WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. MANY DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN MODELS LATE WEEK ON ROCKIES SYSTEM AND SLOW APPROACH OF SFC FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. VERY SUSPECT ON USUALLY TOO FAST/STRONG GFS SOLUTION AND WILL BUY OFF ON SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. THUS...CONTINUED VERY LOW POPS BY WEEK/S END AND THE WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE. && 05/ .PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 55 76 54 / 60 20 20 0 WACO, TX 70 56 77 53 / 90 30 30 0 PARIS, TX 74 52 74 50 / 40 20 20 0 DENTON, TX 75 54 75 52 / 30 20 20 0 MCKINNEY, TX 74 54 75 52 / 30 20 20 0 DALLAS, TX 72 55 76 54 / 60 20 20 0 TERRELL, TX 71 55 75 52 / 80 20 20 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 56 76 52 / 80 30 30 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 57 78 53 / 60 30 30 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ tx