AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 222 PM MDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY) ...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THE RAIN AND SNOW END... UPPER SHORTWAVE MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS OBVIOUSLY COME THROUGH A LOT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE TROUGH MUCH SHARPER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY. IN FACT...IT ALMOST CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BRIEFLY. IN RADAR IMAGERY...YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST PUEBLO COUNTY AT THIS HOUR...WITH LOTS OF NICE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WRAPPING AROUND IT. THE CLOSED-OFF NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM VS THE FASTER PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE THAT WAS EXPECTED...ACCOUNTS FOR THE GREATER INTENSITY AND SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN WAS THOUGHT. IF ONLY WE'D KNOW THIS YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM WAS NO SLOUCH...BRINGING 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS MORNING...AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE GRASS IN COLORADO SPRINGS. LEADVILLE REPORTED 4 INCHES IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA...AND AN ESTIMATED FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY. BELOW 6K...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE COS AIRPORT HAS RECORDED AT LEAST 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE PUB AIRPORT. BASED ON PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM THE RADAR...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THIS IN A FEW AREAS...SUCH AS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY...NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN INDICATED IN ISOLATED AREAS. ALSO...A COUPLE ALERT SENSORS AROUND PUEBLO INDICATE .16 INCHES...WITH ONE OVER NORTHWEST PUEBLO COUNTY INDICATING .28 INCHES. ANYWAY...SYSTEM IS TRACKING EAST SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE EXTENDED SOME LOW GRADE POPS INTO THE EVENING OVER THE COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND STARTING TO LOSE SOME INTENSITY...SO LOW GRADE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE AS IT TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THINGS START TO DRY OUT. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS...ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD TONIGHT...DUE TO THE COLDER AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON GUIDANCE...60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE SNOWPACK HAS RESPONDED WELL TO ALL THE MOISTURE. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE AVERAGE FOR THE ARKANSAS WAS BACK UP TO 93% OF AVERAGE...WITH THE RIO GRANDE BACK UP TO 96% OF AVERAGE. .LONG TERM... (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND WINDS INTO MID WEEK...WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MON NIGHT-TUE...A DRIER AND WARMER WX PATTERN ON TAP THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE TUE. H7 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +4C TO +8C ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH MODELS INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS TO NEAR H5...WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TUE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS THE SW MTS TUE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH SOME CU BUILDUPS EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE VIRGA...AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. TUE NIGHT-SUN...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WED...WITH ETA MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT PAC NW SYSTEM...DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TUE NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UTAH BY 00Z THU. 12Z GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM... CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE NEVADA AT THE SAME TIME...KEEPING WARM AND DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS DO AGREE ON INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WED...WITH WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WED. WITH MODELS DIVERGING...WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST INTACT...BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP THU WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH IF SLOWER SYSTEM PREVAILS...MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPSLOPE AND UPPER SUPPORT NOT JUXTAPOSED. AT ANY RATE...SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT...KEEPING A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND 9000 FEET. ON SUNDAY...GFS IS INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND PARTING PAC NW SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. -MW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1030 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .UPDATE... BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF ALABAMA INTO WEST SECTS OF GEORGIA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA/WESTERN CAROLINAS. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REST OF TONIGHT WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. .PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 325 PM EDT... MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING OF THE RAIN. CURRENT HTX/BHM RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF RAIN OVER ALABAMA...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY IT WILL GET INTO NORTHWEST GA. RUC MODEL WAY TOO FAST AND WILL GO WITH ETA TIMING WHICH PUTS IT INTO NORTHWEST GA BETWEEN 4 TO 6 PM...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL STAY OUT OF CENTRAL GA UNTIL MONDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END LATE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL CHANCES WITH LIFTED INDICES RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND CAPES LESS THAN 800...HOWEVER K INDEX RUNNING AROUND 35 FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA...AND WITH SEEING THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY OVER AL...WILL GO WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY ON TUESDAY AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FROST IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS. MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE SE U.S. COAST FINALLY FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. SYSTEM SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO DELAY PASSAGE OF MAIN TROUGH UNTIL LATE TUE. THIS WILL MEAN SHRA/TSRA AND ACCOMPANYING LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVE LATER AND STAY LONGER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MON N HALF OF CWA...BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CEILINGS...PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY...NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOK GOOD WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DRY SFC AIR MASS SHOULD PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THUS NO SOONER THAN 06Z FOR ATL AND FTY...09Z FOR AHN AND CSG...AND AFT 12Z FOR MCN. FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN IFR MID-LATE MORN MON. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR UNLIKELY. VISIBILITY...LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. FOR ATL...THIS IS CENTERED AROUND 18Z MON. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MID TO LATE MORN MON FOR ATL...FTY...INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AHN AND CSG...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MCN. GREATER CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY TOWARD AFTERNOON MEANS MORE ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CIGS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR IN HEAVIER TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY MCN AFT 18Z MON. WX...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PCPN FOR ANY TAF SITES UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. FOR ATL-AHN...ONLY ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK OF PCPN AS SHRA. GREATER THREAT FOR TSRA S/SE PORTION OF CWA...I.E...MCN FOR MON AFTERNOON. SEVERE TSRA NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE SE PORTION OF CWA AFT 18Z MON. WIND...WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA CURRENTLY AGAIN PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. AGAIN TODAY...DIRECTION HOVERING CLOSE TO 180. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR WEST SIDE OF S WESTERN PORTION OF STATE...E SIDE OF S EASTERN PORTIONS OF STATE. AS CURRENT SFC LOW MOVES NE OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MOVES UP FROM S AL BY MON MORN CONTINUING CHAOTIC WIND PATTERN. AGAIN...GRADIENT WEAK AND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME NW ACROSS N PORTION OF CWA BY MIDDAY MON...BUT S-SW WINDS CONTINUE S PORTIONS OF CWA UNTIL 00Z TUE OR LATER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 63 72 50 68 / 60 80 10 00 ATHENS 62 73 49 71 / 60 80 10 00 GAINESVILLE 61 71 48 69 / 80 80 10 00 ROME 61 71 47 70 / 80 80 10 00 COLUMBUS 64 76 52 73 / 40 70 40 00 MACON 63 76 51 73 / 20 70 60 00 && .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 17/19 ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 530 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT TERM... MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING OF THE RAIN. CURRENT HTX/BHM RADAR SHOWING A LOT OF RAIN OVER ALABAMA...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY IT WILL GET INTO NORTHWEST GA. RUC MODEL WAY TOO FAST AND WILL GO WITH ETA TIMING WHICH PUTS IT INTO NORTHWEST GA BETWEEN 4 TO 6 PM...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP WILL STAY OUT OF CENTRAL GA UNTIL MONDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END LATE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL CHANCES WITH LIFTED INDICES RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND CAPES LESS THAN 800...HOWEVER K INDEX RUNNING AROUND 35 FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA...AND WITH SEEING THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY OVER AL...WILL GO WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY ON TUESDAY AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FROST IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM... MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE SE U.S. COAST FINALLY FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. SYSTEM SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO DELAY PASSAGE OF MAIN TROUGH UNTIL LATE TUE. THIS WILL MEAN SHRA/TSRA AND ACCOMPANYING LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVE LATER AND STAY LONGER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY MON N HALF OF CWA...BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CEILINGS...PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY...NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOK GOOD WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DRY SFC AIR MASS SHOULD PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THUS NO SOONER THAN 06Z FOR ATL AND FTY...09Z FOR AHN AND CSG...AND AFT 12Z FOR MCN. FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN IFR MID-LATE MORN MON. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR UNLIKELY. VISIBILITY...LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. FOR ATL...THIS IS CENTERED AROUND 18Z MON. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MID TO LATE MORN MON FOR ATL...FTY...INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AHN AND CSG...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MCN. GREATER CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY TOWARD AFTERNOON MEANS MORE ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CIGS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR IN HEAVIER TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY MCN AFT 18Z MON. WX...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PCPN FOR ANY TAF SITES UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. FOR ATL-AHN...ONLY ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK OF PCPN AS SHRA. GREATER THREAT FOR TSRA S/SE PORTION OF CWA...I.E...MCN FOR MON AFTERNOON. SEVERE TSRA NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE SE PORTION OF CWA AFT 18Z MON. WIND...WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA CURRENTLY AGAIN PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. AGAIN TODAY...DIRECTION HOVERING CLOSE TO 180. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR WEST SIDE OF S WESTERN PORTION OF STATE...E SIDE OF S EASTERN PORTIONS OF STATE. AS CURRENT SFC LOW MOVES NE OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MOVES UP FROM S AL BY MON MORN CONTINUING CHAOTIC WIND PATTERN. AGAIN...GRADIENT WEAK AND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME NW ACROSS N PORTION OF CWA BY MIDDAY MON...BUT S-SW WINDS CONTINUE S PORTIONS OF CWA UNTIL 00Z TUE OR LATER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 63 72 50 68 / 60 80 10 00 ATHENS 62 73 49 71 / 60 80 10 00 GAINESVILLE 61 71 48 69 / 80 80 10 00 ROME 61 71 47 70 / 80 80 10 00 COLUMBUS 64 76 52 73 / 40 70 40 00 MACON 63 76 51 73 / 20 70 60 00 && .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 17/19 ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 652 PM EST SUN APR 25 2004 .AVIATION... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING KSBN WITH SMALL POOL OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS AHEAD...SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITIES TIMED INTO KSBN 01Z-03Z TEMPO GROUP...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. 1000-900MB MOISTURE TIMED OUT PER RUC AT 06Z KSBN AND 08Z KFWA WHICH AGREES WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT. EXTREMELY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND HAVE BROUGHT HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH VCSH AND CB CLOUD TYPE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION TODAY. POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE RIDGE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT SHOULD BE EXITING NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BETWEEN 20-22Z TIME FRAME. STILL A SLIM CHANCE SOMETHING COULD FIRE ALONG THIS AXIS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TIME BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP POPS OUT OF EARLY EVENING SINCE COVERAGE WOULD BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING. UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK WITH MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND MODELS MOVING THIS AREA OUT LATE EVENING. THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST BUT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING IN...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES IN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPRESSIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OVER 7C/KM FROM 700-500MB WITH 500MB TEMPS -25C TO -30C OVER AREA. MODELS HAVE ALSO INCREASED AREA OF INSTABILITY TO COVER MOST OF OUR WARNING AREA AND ETA/GFS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIMING OF VORT MAX AND DPVA OVER OUR AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES OUT OF SOUTHWEST AREA AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER. WITH THE IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING/WBZ HEIGHTS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HAIL. SEE DAY2 OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING MONDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT BIG RADIATIONAL TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON... PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE VERY LIMITED... EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FILL IN UNDER THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. TUESDAY NIGHT...DOES APPEAR MAV MOS AND MEX MOS TEMPS...LOWS...ARE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW TEMPS MAY BE AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WHERE AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE OUT BETTER. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAN THE 00Z RUN...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NW INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA WITH A WAVE OR 2 DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING OF THIS WAVE TOO UNCERTAIN TO TRY TO PIN DOWN A GIVEN PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES OVER THIS COMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 900 AM MDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC CONFIRMS RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS IN THAT SHORT WAVE OVER COLORADO WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TWO TIERS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FORECAST ALREADY SENT. $$ .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DLF ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 140 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... AIRMASS OVER LMK FA CONTINUES TO RECOVER NICELY AFTER THIS MORNINGS BAND OF PCPN. AXIS OF 1000+ SBCAPES FROM KFTK TO KBWG AS OF 16Z, AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVEN NUMEROUS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BDY NOW OVER SWRN IND AND WRN KY. LAPSE RATES BTWN 800 AND 600MB NOT OPTIMALLY STEEP PER RUC SOUNDINGS, WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. HWVR WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CHCS CERTAINLY GOOD FOR SOME THUNDER. WIND FIELDS AND INCOMING POOL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB SUGGEST ANY STG/SVR STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGH WINDS. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES MAINLY KLEX EASTWARD. BEST CHCS OF PCPN LOOK TO EXIT FA LATER THIS EVENING, WITH EXCEPTION OF AREAS S/E OF A KBWG-KLEX LINE, WHERE JET STREAK RELATED ASCENT MAY KEEP SCT SHRA GOING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROF THEN DIGS INTO ERN CONUS MON, WITH A SMALLER SCALE WAVE DROPPING INTO OH VLY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL INDICATE SOME SPOTTY -SHRA POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAINLY IN KSDF/KLEX VICINITIES. 850MB THERMAL TROF REMAINS IN AREA TUE, YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY WED MORNING IN RURAL/VALLEY AREAS E OF I-65 SHOULD CURRENT FCST TRENDS VERIFY. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE EXTENDED RUNS OF LATE...THREE DAYS OF VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WED NITE AS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW KICKS IN EARLY THURS WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEARLY 5-7 ABV NORMAL THURS AND FRI. TROUGH OVR PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST FRI...A FEW MORE CLOUDS FRI BUT DRY. TROUGH ENTERS GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION SAT WITH SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA AND STALLING OUT...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SAT AND SUN WHEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT MONDAY. SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDGS OVER THE FAR W AND E. SHRTWV/ SFC LO THAT BROUGHT TDAY'S RASN NOW PUSHING NEWD INTO ONTARIO...AND PCPN HAS ENDED ACRS THE ENTIRE FA AT 01Z EXCEPT FOR THE FAR E AS DYNAMICS HAVE EXITED AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABV H85 AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB SDNG HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA. HOWEVER...LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO THE INVRN AT H85 AS SHOWN ON GRB SDNG HAS BEEN MUCH MORE RESILIENT. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC RDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO AND THE APRCH OF VERY DRY LLVL AIR FM MN (SEE 00Z INL SDNG)...PLENTY OF SC LINGERS ACRS THE CWA. ONLY THE FAR WRN CWA ARND IWD-EGV HAS SEEN THE SC CLR...AND THIS CLRG LINE IS PUSHING SLOWLY E. THE CLRG APPEARS TO BE SLOWED BY THE STABILIZING AFFECT OF THE DRIER...AND WARMER AIR FM THE W (SFC TEMPS WELL IN THE 50S W OF ASX) FLOWING ON TOP THE LLVL CHILL STILL PRESENT OVER THE FA. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE INVRN IS DIMINISHING THE MIXING OUT OF THE LLVL COLD AIR...AND THUS SLOWING THE CLRG. ANOTHER RATHER POTENT SHRTWV NOTED MOVING THRU NW MN THIS EVNG. NMRS -SHRA...AND EVEN A FEW TSRA...DVLPD DURG THE DAY WITH DIURNAL HTG UNDER H5 TEMPS AOB -30C DESPITE THE LLVL DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE INL/MPX/BIS SDNGS. ALTHOUGH SHRA AND INSTABILITY CU/CB TO THE W OVER ERN MN ARE WANING WITH THE SETTING SUN...BAND OF SHRA FARTHER W ACRS MN CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV/ NR THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES TROF/UNDER THE STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES APRCHG 7.5C/KM HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS AND PCPN CHCS. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE INVRN IS RETARDING THE PROGRESS OF THE CLRG FM THE W...SAT TRENDS STILL SUG SKIES WL CLR W-E OVERNGT AS DRY ADVCTN EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF MIXING GRDLY ERODES THE SC. SO GOING DCRSG CLD FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 18Z ETA SHOWS SHRTWV/SFC TROF/STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES/HIER H85-5 RH ARRIVING OVER THE WRN FA AFTER 06Z...SO WL RETAIN MENTION OF SCT SHRA DVLPG OVERNGT ACRS THE W HALF. INITIAL PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA AS H85 TEMPS ABV ZERO AND INCOMING AIRMASS SO WARM IN THE LLVLS. BUT ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SFC TROF WL MIX THE RA WITH SN LATE OVER THE FAR W. DESPITE CLRG AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE W...THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF AIRMASS/LITTLE DCRS IN PWAT WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AHEAD OF SFC TROF. GOING FCST TMINS GENERALLY AOA 32 LOOK OKAY. KC .LONG TERM... INCOMING SHORTWAVE OVER MN WL AFFECT CWA THROUGH MON. LOBE OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH WITH IT MON MORNING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN TO -10C OR SO MON EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING OVER THE EAST...AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C-2C...THIS IS ENOUGH DELTA-T TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE ALREADY HAVE THEM IN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...AND WILL KEEP THEM IN...BUT REMOVE THEM OVER THE WEST AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND NOT ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T IS THERE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT PCPN TYPE AS RAIN OR SNOW BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TODAY AND FACT IS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING IN THE WEST. LOWS COULD GET TRICKY AS WELL...BUT FEEL THE WIND WILL STAY UP AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO WSETAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. FOR MON...1000-850 MB THICKNESS FALLS BELOW 1305 M DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT WORK AS WELL THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE SOLAR HEATING IS STRONG. KEPT IN MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN AT THIS TIME. LOOKED AT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES...BUT DOES NOT LOOK AS LIKELY EVEN WITH COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -30C TO -33C OVER AREA. ETA THEN SHOWS QUIET WEATHER UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONT COMES IN AND THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH. WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH CWA TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BASED ON ETA 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PACKING AND ETA GENERATING SOME QPF THEN. ETA ALSO SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ON I280-I295 SURFACES THAT PASSES ACROSS CWA TUE NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP POPS GOING THAT WE HAD IN THERE FOR THIS. FOR WED...LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND BOTH GFS AND ETA GENERATE QPF OVER EASTERN CWA AT 18Z AND THEN MOVE IT OUT OF CWA AFTER THAT. FEELING IS CWA MIGHT BE CAPPED AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WED RIGHT NOW. GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ITS DEPICTION OF FRONT AND ALSO WITH QPF AT THIS TIME AS EARLIER RUNS WERE FURTHER NORTH. IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH MORE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND TROUGHING IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT 00Z THU. THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IS UNDER ZONAL FLOW AT THAT TIME. TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DIGS SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS CWA ON THU THROUGH SAT AS RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST BUILDS NORTHWARD AND KEEPS CWA IN TROUGHING THROUGH SUN. ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW THIS. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE SOLUTION AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH VERY LITTLE NOISE OR SPREAD BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE THEREFORE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE COLDER AND WET WEATHER WILL RETURN AFTER WED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL GO WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GO CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THESE SEEMED REASONABLE. WENT DRY FOR FRI AS FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN AREA AND AGAIN WENT DRY FOR SUN WITH HIGH PRES IN AREA. DID NOT MAKE MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO EXTENDED. MICHELS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 820 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... TOO MUCH DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCD WITH VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY OVR FAR WRN MN. DESPITE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STILL SOME LGT -SHRA/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. APPEARS S/W WL BE PUSHING ACRS SRN MN THRU 07Z SO ADDED ISOLD -SHRA THREAT MOST AREAS. LOSS OF INSOLATION AND SLIGHT DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE...HOWEVER LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS FM LATE AFTN SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING EXTENDING UP TO 13K FEET! HENCE ANY -SHRA ACTIVITY AND EVEN VIRGA COULD RESULT IN DRY MICROBURST SITUATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT SFC. SEEING THAT RIGHT NOW IN KRWF AREA WHERE LARGER AREA OF 25 TO 35 DBZ LOCATED. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS FOR NOW...WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH S/W TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF AREA AFT 06Z. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING THRU FAR NRN MN ATTM WL USHER IN MORE MID/LOW LEVEL CLDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TNGT INTO EARLY MON...ESPECIALLY IN ERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING TAPPING INTO GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO BEEF UP WINDS SLIGHTLY...BUT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT WIND ADVY WL BE NEEDED ATTM. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MBK mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1023 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .PUBLIC...HRLY TEMPS RUNNING CPL DEGREES WRMR THAN FCST VALUES. RUC SHOWG DCRSG MSTR DURING THE AFTN HRS. THRFR HV UPPD MAXES A CPL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SXNS WHR SKIES HV BEEN MSTLY CLR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HV BEEN TOYING WI IDEA OF POPS TDY SINCE THR IS ACTVTY OFFSHR ATTM. WL GO WI 20 POPS FOR MJRITY OF AREA. THIS IS IN LINE WI WHAT MIDSHFT WAS THINKG ALSO. .MARINE...MSAS DEPICTS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH STRUGGLED STH'WD THRU AREA YESTERDAY PRESENTLY TAKING A BREATHER NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC. FRONT TRANSFORMS ITSELF TO TITLE OF "WARM" LIFTING BACK N ONCE AGAIN THRU CWFA TODAY. IN THE INTERIM...OFFSHORE BUOYS ONCE AGAIN REGISTERING 3 FOOT SEA HEIGHT BEATS EVERY 7 SECONDS ALONG WITH EASTERLY 5-11 KT FLOW. SURF CAMS/SPOTTERS VISUALLY/VERBALLY SPEAK OF LETHARGIC 1-2 FT WAVES LAPPING INTO THE SURF ZONES FROM DUCK FIELD RESEARCH FACILITY PIER ALONG THE NOBX...S THRU ATLANTIC BEACH AND DOWN TO SURF CITY PIER. NEED-LESS-TO-SAY...LOW RIPS FOR ALL BEACHES WITHIN CWFA RESPONSIBILITY TODAY. WINDS VEER SE THEN S REMAINING ON THE WEAKISH SIDE (AS DO SEAS/SOUND WATERS) AS AFORMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK N DURING THE COURSE OF DAY AND NIGHT. CHANGES TO THE PLACIDNESS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS S-SW P-GRAD BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD SCA STANDARDS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS/SOUND WATERS ALSO TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT COURSE OF DAY AS S-SW FLOW KICKS INTO 20-25 KT RANGE BY NIGHTFALL. STILL STAYING THE 4-6 FT NORTHERN LEG...5-7 FT SOUTHERN LEG SEA HEIGHT COURSE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST 06Z NOAA WAVE WATCH III/OSBW04/09 DATA THROWS UP SOME 7 FT MAX HEIGHTS FOR NORTHERN LEG ENVIRONS...AND 8-9 FOOTERS CRUISING THROUGH 41013 WATERS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. REASON FOR NWW3 HIGHER SEA STATE NUMBERS COULD BE THE FACT THAT LAST NIGHTS GFS RUN SLOWS ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT INTO REGION AND OFF COAST BY SOME 3-6 HRS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS DUE IN PART AS FRONT ORIENTS ITSELF WITH PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT THUS SLOWING FRONT AS IT NEARS COAST. LATEST GFS ALSO DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES FORMING ALONG FRONT TO THE S AS IT NEARS ATLANTIC WHICH AGAIN WOULD ADD A BIT OF DRAIN TO THE GAIN. HENCE...PROLONGED SW FLOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY REASON FOR HIGHER SEA STATE NUMBERS SHOWING UP IN MARINE LEG PICTURE. FRONT SHOULD SLIP OFF COAST ANYWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TUESDAY THERE-BY SHIFTING 15-25 KT SW FLOW TO NW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM TEXAS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD CWFA/MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS BEGIN A BIT BRISK (15-20 KTS) WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FALL OUT QUICKLY LATER IN DAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE 1030MB HIGH SLIDES UP AND OVER REGION. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ CGG/GC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1010 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... VARIOUS MSAS PARAMETERS AND SAT IMAGERY DEPICT SFC BNDRY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. LATEST RUC HOLDS ENUF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO MSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS...AND WORD IT BECOMING MSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE OR IN TODAYS CASE...THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...PUSHES INLAND. RESULTANT WIND BNDRY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SURE TO INTERACT...AND WITH BORDERLINE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...WILL GO AHEAD AND STICK A 20 POP. MAY TWEAK MAXES A FEW DEGREES UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. && .MARINE... SATELLITE IMAGES DOING THE BEST JOB OF DEPICTING THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. LIGHT ENE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CWF RESPONSIBILITY. DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. RUC STILL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON INITIAL CONDITIONS AND I WILL FOLLOW ITS SLOWER VEERING TREND WITH THE WINDS. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...BUT THE TEXT OF THE CURRENT CWF LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THERE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WILMINGTON 80 63 80 58 / 20 10 50 70 FLORENCE 85 62 80 53 / 20 10 50 70 LUMBERTON 81 61 80 53 / 20 10 50 70 MYRTLE BEACH 77 63 77 59 / 20 10 50 70 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ MARINE...RAS/ALEX PUBLIC...RALF/JAN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1100 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .UPDATE... LATEST HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT DRAPED NORTH OF THE AREA BUT EXACT POSITION HARD TO PIN DOWN. LLVL MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILL AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WAA FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE STARTED TO THIN AS PREDICTED BY THE RUC/MESOETA/GFS. SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING IN MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...NOW INCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO REALIZE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...GIVEN THICKNESS SCHEME. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES IN NON-MOUNTAIN REGIONS...ESPECIALLY NC PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTRA HEATING. 06Z MESOETA WAS INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD HAVE KEPT THICKER CLOUDS CONFINED TO WESTERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NEW 12Z RUN JUST IN...HAS A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL KEEPS THE FRONT HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LONGER THAN THE GFS. HAVE CUT BACK ON SKY COVER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD INCREASE IN MOCLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS ARE WELL IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS FAR AS CONVECTION FOR TODAY...APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST CONVECTION WOULD MOST LIKELY INITIATE IN THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NC MTNS WHERE SOME OMEGA AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE EXIST. HOWEVER...INDICES ARE MARGINAL. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 AND BEST CAPE OFF MODIFIED SOUNDING OF NEAR 1300. ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IF THAT. MEAN LAYER FLOW STRONGER TODAY SO ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING SHOULD HAVE SOME MOVEMENT TO AVOID FLOODING CONCERNS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD PARAMETERS AND ADJUSTED MIXING HEIGHTS UP SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPS FORECAST. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ LAMB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1205 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RUC MODEL RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP CURRENTLY IN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NORTHEAST INTO MID STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BUMPED POPS UP A TAD EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ BOYD 01 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 958 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ENTERING W TN AND NW MS...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. RUC MODEL AND 06Z MESO-ETA INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF EAST TN. MODIFIED BNA AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ABOUT 600 TO 800 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 C. THE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS WEAKER THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THUS...HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO WESTERN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AND REMOVE ANY AFTERNOON WORDING...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY OTHER CHANGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga, TN 80 61 69 47 / 50 100 70 10 Knoxville, TN 80 60 66 46 / 50 100 90 10 Bristol, TN 78 59 64 42 / 40 100 90 20 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 67 45 / 50 100 70 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 815 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .DISCUSSION... WILL ISSUE FLS AND CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. ALSO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RUN. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ BOYD 01 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1217 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004 .AVIATION... IFR CIGS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY BECOME MVFR IN THE LAST HOUR AS CLOUDS DECREASE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP WORKING FURTHER SE AS WELL. THUS...WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS FOR AN HOUR FOR KDFW AND KFTW WITH NEW TAFS...HOLDING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AN EXTRA HOUR FOR KDAL. KACT SHOULD STAY MVFR A BIT LONGER...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO GO VFR AS WELL. LIGHT FLOW...WET GROUND AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME VERY LOW CLOUDS TO FROM TOWARD 11-12Z TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY. 80 && .SHORT TERM... MUCH MORE TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING THAN THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO...AS BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES STREAMING E/NEWD AROUND 30 MPH BETWEEN I-20/30 AND A LAMPASAS...WACO...PALESTINE CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. FROM U/A ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK...SEEMS A BOUNDARY AROUND 850MB IS LOCATED IN THIS VCNTY AND WILL ONLY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY SEWD BY THIS AFTN...AS PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK LLJ 20-30 KTS FEEDING 11-13 DEG C 850 MB DEW PTS INTO THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER IT...ALONG WITH RRQ OF 70-90 UPPER JET ANCHORED FROM OK...NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY WITH SOME PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY ENE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF IT THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. DIFFICULT TEMP/POP FCST TO SAY THE LEAST THROUGH THIS EVE. LEANING STRONGLY TO THE ETA/UKMET/RUC FCST HERE AS OTHER MODELS TOO BULLISH/FAR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR...LOW LVL FOCUS/QPF. WILL GO HIGH POPS I-20 CORRIDOR TO KTPL-KPSN LINE AS DRIER AIR NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. WILL GO BELOW MOS IN BOUNDARY AREA...WITH HIGHS A CAT WARMER ON BOTH NW/SE FRINGES OF CWA. CONFIDENCE WAVERING THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T IGNORE SATELLITE...U/A...AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN ROCKIES THEN SWEEPS THROUGH TNGT AND WILL CONTINUE 20-30% POPS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHAOTIC SFC PATTERN WITH BOUNDARIES GALORE AND MSTR AVAILABILITY/DEPTH...BEFORE FINALLY SEEING UPPER FLOW GO W/NWLY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO N TX IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER GT LAKES ON MON WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS/COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS. && .LONG TERM... ONE MORE MILD SPRING DAY TUES...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES AND PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN A RETURN TO BREEZY SLY WINDS AND WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. MANY DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN MODELS LATE WEEK ON ROCKIES SYSTEM AND SLOW APPROACH OF SFC FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. VERY SUSPECT ON USUALLY TOO FAST/STRONG GFS SOLUTION AND WILL BUY OFF ON SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. THUS...CONTINUED VERY LOW POPS BY WEEK/S END AND THE WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE. && 05/ .PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 55 76 54 / 60 20 20 0 WACO, TX 70 56 77 53 / 90 30 30 0 PARIS, TX 74 52 74 50 / 40 20 20 0 DENTON, TX 75 54 75 52 / 30 20 20 0 MCKINNEY, TX 74 54 75 52 / 30 20 20 0 DALLAS, TX 72 55 76 54 / 60 20 20 0 TERRELL, TX 71 55 75 52 / 80 20 20 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 56 76 52 / 80 30 30 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 57 78 53 / 60 30 30 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 408 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004 .SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK MOVING EAST. THE ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE ACROSS MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STRIKES DIMINISHING AS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WORKS INTO A MORE STABLE LAYER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES. THE WEAKENING FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. CAN JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST...WITH CHANCE INLAND FURTHER FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AS WINDS LIGHTEN...WITH LOADS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...FAVOR THE COOLER ETA FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...LIKE AN ETA/MAV MOS COMPROMISE...WITH GENERALLY VERY LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM... THE SURFACE WAVE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD POP UP SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WITH DYNAMICS IN PLACE...COULD ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR ALL LOCATIONS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE. WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY...AS THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS THEY CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW. BASED ON THIS...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPSLOPE FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW. FOLLOWING THE ABOVE...THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXTENDED INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ZONES. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THE FAVORED LOCATIONS TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. LAPSE RATES REMAINS STEEP...AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT COOLER MOS NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THIS...AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF SEA BREEZES MOS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR SEAS FOR TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS UPSTREAM RESULTING IN A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH...ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE INCREASING GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO WINDS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SCA. NH...SCA. $$ APFFEL/HAYES me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 425 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES TUE NIGHT. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH WRN NOAM RDG AND A BROAD TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY. ONE SHRTWV SPOKE FROM WRN ONTARIO TO SE MN WHILE ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY TRAILED OVER MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED THE NE CORNER OF MN AND WRN LK SUPERIOR SRN MN. DPVA WITH THE SHRTWV ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM AND LOW LVL CONV AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT SUPPORTED SCT -SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM WRN UPR MI INTO CNTRL WI. WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...MAINLY RAIN OBSERVED UPSTREAM WITH -SHSN LAGGING OVER NRN MN. 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATED BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH THE ERN CWA LEAVING CLEAR AREA AHEAD OF BATCH OF MID CLOUDS AND -SHRA. TODAY...EXPECT BAND OF SCT -SHRA TO PROGRESS ACRS WEST/CNTRL UPR MI THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT 950-800 MB CAA. SPRINGTIME DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS 800 MB FALL TO NEAR -13C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE 20S. WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM MANITOBA SHRTWV AND WEAK 850-500 QVECTOR CONV WILL ALSO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. 1000-850 THICKNESS BLO 1305 ALONG WITH SFC-900 MB WET-BULB TEMPS DROPPING BLO 0C WILL SUPPORT -SN MIX EVEN THOUGH SFC TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 38-44 RANGE. WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN A LIGHT COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES. LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAY KEEP PCPN MAINLY AS RAIN FROM SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TO KESC. TONIGHT...ETA/GFS H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -11C WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY LES. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND LONGER FETCH INTO THE ERN CWA WITH 320-330 CBL FLOW...SOME -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. INLAND...ENOUGH CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR DECOUPLING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOING FCST AND GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 20S LOOK ON TRACK. TUE...ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVER THE EAST SHOULD END DURING THE MORNINGS AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WAA CLOUDS LATE. TUE NIGHT...DECENT WARM FRONTOGENESIS WITH RIBBON OF STRONG 290K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SHRA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH WSW INFLOW AND WITH NO GULF CONNECTION. LOWER LVLS ALSO START OUT VERY DRY. SO...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS. WED...SSW CBL FLOW OF 20-30 KTS AND MIXING TO 900-850 MB (GFS H8 TEMPS NEAR 11C) SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S...ABV GUIDANCE AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER NRN UPR MI. ONSHORE FLOW FROM LK MI WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER FROM ESC EASTWARD. WED NIGHT INTO THU...GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. SO...PCPN TIMING WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SIGNIFICANT CAPPING AND CINH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD MINIMIZE TSRA THREAT TIL STRONGER FORCING/TRIGGER WITH THE SFC FRONT ARRIVES. MAIN QUESTION FOR STRENGTH OF CONVECTION WILL BE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVBL. WHILE THE MDLS HINT AT EVENTUAL INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S (H8 DEWPOINT TO 10C) AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE. IF IT DOES...STRONG SHEAR AND 700-500 LAPSE RATES TO 8.5C/KM (PER GFS/ETA) WOULD SUGGEST DECENT POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE TSRA. JLB && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 330 AM CDT MON APR 26 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHORT TERM...POCKET OF COOL AIR WAS POISED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF AT 00Z. LATEST RUC DROPS MOST OF THE COLD AIR AT 850MB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH 06Z META INDICATING SOME WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON AS TROF SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH SUN MUCH OF THE DAY AND WINDY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 700MB IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS DEVELOP AND MOVE DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 06Z ETA IS SLOWER WITH FRONT COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THAN EARLIER 00Z RUN AND SIMILAR NOW TO GFS IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO WARM HIGHS A BIT TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE LITTLE ELSE TO CHANGE AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS COOL AS SERIES OF WAVES MAINTAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN ON THURSDAY TOWARD LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN. REMAINDER OF FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD GUIDANCE SO LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. && WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...NONE. .IA...NONE. && $$ FOBERT ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 300 AM CDT MON APR 26 2004 .DISCUSSION... MCS LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON CURRENT RUC/ETA MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX SINKS SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMATION. ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH SOIL MOISTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS80 AND UKMET SOLUTIONS BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SFC TROF ACROSS THE CWFA PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ATTM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WET SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 60 82 57 / 40 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 54 81 57 / 20 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 58 80 59 / 40 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 58 80 58 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 13/03 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 950 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004 ...MORNING UPDATE... SKIES M/SUNNY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LMK FA, WITH THICK BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOC WITH YESTERDAYS FRONT OVER ERN KY. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS WHETHER WE'LL SEE CLOUDS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME -SHRA. UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO FA TODAY, HWVR BEFORE THIS BOTH ETA/RUC SHOW NARROW STRIPE OF RELATIVELY HIGHER PWS MOVING INTO VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON; THIS COULD BE INFERRED IN CURRENT SFC OBS FROM SRN IL INTO SRN/CEN IN WHICH SHOW A ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SFC TDS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HELP YIELD SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS, AND I'LL KEEP SMALL CHCS FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR ISO -SHRA FROM ROUGHLY KSDF OVER INTO KLEX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. XXV && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 944 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004 .UPDATE... WILL BE ISSUING QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP 1ST PERIOD WORDING BUT PRECIP HEADING OUT OF THE REGION ON SCHEDULE AND FORECAST LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK MOVING EAST. THE ETA/RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE ACROSS MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STRIKES DIMINISHING AS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WORKS INTO A MORE STABLE LAYER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES. THE WEAKENING FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. CAN JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST...WITH CHANCE INLAND FURTHER FROM THE FRONT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AS WINDS LIGHTEN...WITH LOADS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...FAVOR THE COOLER ETA FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...LIKE AN ETA/MAV MOS COMPROMISE...WITH GENERALLY VERY LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM... THE SURFACE WAVE SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD POP UP SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS. WITH DYNAMICS IN PLACE...COULD ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR ALL LOCATIONS...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE SOME HEATING IS POSSIBLE. WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY...AS THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS THEY CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW. BASED ON THIS...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPSLOPE FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW. FOLLOWING THE ABOVE...THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXTENDED INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ZONES. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THE FAVORED LOCATIONS TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. LAPSE RATES REMAINS STEEP...AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT COOLER MOS NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THIS...AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF SEA BREEZES MOS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...WILL ISSUE SCA FOR SEAS FOR TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS UPSTREAM RESULTING IN A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH...ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE INCREASING GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL TO MIX HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO WINDS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SCA. NH...SCA. $$ EJS/SJC me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1022 AM EDT MON APR 26 2004 .UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS A TAD SLOW BASED ON SATELLITE DATA. THE RUC BRINGS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HOWEVER ADVANCE INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS 18Z. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 57...LIKELY TO BE REACHED BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. SO ALTHOUGH BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 4 PM...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD TOUCH OFF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS ON THE LEAN SIDE...HOWEVER WITH THE 12Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIR COMING IN ALOFT/ 500MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO -30C BY 00Z THIS EVENING/...WILL MENTION NUMEROUS TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO JUST SCATTERED. DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ADVANCING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...850 TO 500MB LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO 7.5C/KM BY 21Z. BY EXPECTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL A BIT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING...THE MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 60/34 AND MUCH COLDER 500MB TEMPS YIELDED CAPE AROUND 700 J/KG. IF HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAPE WILL EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && CONSIDINE .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 AM EDT. A SIGNIFICANT COLD ANOMALY TO AFFECT LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NONE-THE-LESS...SUFFICIENT COLD AIR A LOFT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MESOETA CONTINUES TO SHOW NEGATIVE SURFACE BASED LI'S ALONG WITH DECENT CAPES...NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 5500 FEET...SMALL HAIL IS A GOOD BET IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. COULD EVEN BE A FEW BORDERLINE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUST REPORTS THROWN IN AS WELL. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS DECIDING HOW COLD IT IS GOING TO GET...AS HIGHLY AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. SHORT TERM MODEL'S GENERALLY INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 C OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIGHT GRADIENT COUPLED WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE WINDS STAYING UP...THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 30S. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DRIER ETA FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND KEEP THINGS DRY. THE QUESTION FOR TUESDAY IS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S FOR MAXES. 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD...-6 TO -8 C. WE SHOULD BE MIXED UP TO AT LEAST 750 MB HOWEVER. BASED ON THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AT THE SURFACE...THINK WE SHOULD SEE MAXES AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. IF WE STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN WE WILL LINGER IN THE 40S. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO CREST OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 6Z WEDNESDAY. IF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS SLOWER TO PUSH TO THE EAST...WE COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT METRO AREA. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN...AS BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE SIMILAR WITH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS STREAMING IN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS EAST OF THE AREA. POTENT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO DIVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING. BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL. WILL PULL THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THE GFS AND ETA ARE INDICATING LI'S NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK CAP IN PLACE BY THIS TIME. MAXES DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE REGION. POTENTIAL OF TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. WILL BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR NOW. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNER'S REGION ON THURSDAY (PER CANADIAN AND GFS). THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH CANADIAN AND GFS SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WORTHY OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PER GOING FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING LOCATION OF WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. RECAPPING YESTERDAY... CLOSE BUT NOT CIGAR IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT LAPS DATA REVEALED CAPES UP TO 1100 J/KG...NOT THE 1500/1600 J/KG NEEDED. MAX TEMPERATURES WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT WERE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THEN FORECASTED FARTHER NORTH...AS THE WARM FRONT/OCCLUSION PUNCHED INTO THE TRI-CITIES REGION. OVERALL...NOT A BAD FORECAST CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SF EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1021 AM CDT MON APR 26 2004 .UPDATE... UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE MAX TEMPS TODAY BY 1-3 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND RAIN COOLING ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ALSO DECREASED POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 10 PERCENT TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST OF DRY WX FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING IS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... MCS LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON CURRENT RUC/ETA MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX SINKS SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMATION. ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH SOIL MOISTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS80 AND UKMET SOLUTIONS BRING A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SFC TROF ACROSS THE CWFA PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ATTM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WET SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES. && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 11/08/JB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 255 PM EDT MON APR 26 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY). HAD TO LOWER POPS AND USHER THEM OUT OF THE CWFA A LITTLE EARLIER PER RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL PROGS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR CWFA TUESDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY). USING 06Z GFS AS A GUIDE...EXPECT THURSDAY TO ALSO BE DRY WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N. 26/00Z EXTENDED GFS IS FASTER WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY THAN THE 25/00Z RUN. ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 26/00Z GFS...BUT DRIER. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIMITED WITH SHORT TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF. WILL RAISE POPS SATURDAY...AND KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. HPC FRONTAL POSITION HAS FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA BY 12Z MONDAY. MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLACE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM FROM OUR CWFA BY MONDAY...SO WILL TAPER POPS ACCORDINGLY ON THAT DAY. && .MARINE...WINDS WERE NEAR SCA LEVELS AT BUOY 42039 AS A MESOLOW DEVELOPED JUST W OF THERE. EXPECT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO DECREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...PER RUC WIND PROGS. HAVE NOT ISSUED A SCA TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH SCEC INSTEAD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE LOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS...REQUIRING WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA (SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 58 78 44 80 / 40 00 00 00 PFN 60 79 50 77 / 30 00 00 00 DHN 54 77 46 78 / 20 00 00 00 ABY 55 76 45 77 / 30 00 00 00 VLD 59 77 45 79 / 40 00 00 00 CTY 63 79 45 80 / 60 10 00 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES. FL...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES. && $$ TJT fl