FXUS62 KMHX 251423
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004

.PUBLIC...HRLY TEMPS RUNNING CPL DEGREES WRMR THAN FCST VALUES. RUC 
SHOWG DCRSG MSTR DURING THE AFTN HRS. THRFR HV UPPD MAXES A CPL 
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SXNS WHR SKIES HV BEEN MSTLY CLR FOR 
MUCH OF THE MORNING. HV BEEN TOYING WI IDEA OF POPS TDY SINCE THR IS 
ACTVTY OFFSHR ATTM. WL GO WI 20 POPS FOR MJRITY OF AREA. THIS IS IN 
LINE WI WHAT MIDSHFT WAS THINKG ALSO.

.MARINE...MSAS DEPICTS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH STRUGGLED STH'WD  
THRU AREA YESTERDAY PRESENTLY TAKING A BREATHER NEAR MYRTLE BEACH 
SC. FRONT TRANSFORMS ITSELF TO TITLE OF "WARM" LIFTING BACK N ONCE 
AGAIN THRU CWFA TODAY. IN THE INTERIM...OFFSHORE BUOYS ONCE AGAIN 
REGISTERING 3 FOOT SEA HEIGHT BEATS EVERY 7 SECONDS ALONG WITH 
EASTERLY 5-11 KT FLOW. SURF CAMS/SPOTTERS VISUALLY/VERBALLY SPEAK OF 
LETHARGIC 1-2 FT WAVES LAPPING INTO THE SURF ZONES FROM DUCK FIELD 
RESEARCH FACILITY PIER ALONG THE NOBX...S THRU ATLANTIC BEACH AND 
DOWN TO SURF CITY PIER. NEED-LESS-TO-SAY...LOW RIPS FOR ALL BEACHES 
WITHIN CWFA RESPONSIBILITY TODAY. WINDS VEER SE THEN S REMAINING ON 
THE WEAKISH SIDE (AS DO SEAS/SOUND WATERS) AS AFORMENTIONED WARM 
FRONT LIFTS BACK N DURING THE COURSE OF DAY AND NIGHT. CHANGES TO 
THE PLACIDNESS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS S-SW P-GRAD BEGINS 
TO TIGHTEN TOWARD SCA STANDARDS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS/SOUND WATERS ALSO 
TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT COURSE OF DAY AS S-SW FLOW KICKS INTO 
20-25 KT RANGE BY NIGHTFALL. STILL STAYING THE 4-6 FT NORTHERN 
LEG...5-7 FT SOUTHERN LEG SEA HEIGHT COURSE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY 
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST 06Z NOAA 
WAVE WATCH III/OSBW04/09 DATA THROWS UP SOME 7 FT MAX HEIGHTS FOR 
NORTHERN LEG ENVIRONS...AND 8-9 FOOTERS CRUISING THROUGH 41013 
WATERS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. REASON FOR NWW3 HIGHER SEA 
STATE NUMBERS COULD BE THE FACT THAT LAST NIGHTS GFS RUN SLOWS 
ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT INTO REGION AND OFF COAST BY SOME 3-6 HRS 
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS DUE IN PART AS FRONT ORIENTS 
ITSELF  WITH PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT THUS SLOWING FRONT AS IT NEARS 
COAST. LATEST GFS ALSO DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES FORMING ALONG FRONT TO 
THE S AS IT NEARS ATLANTIC WHICH AGAIN WOULD ADD A BIT OF DRAIN TO 
THE GAIN. HENCE...PROLONGED SW FLOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY REASON FOR HIGHER SEA STATE NUMBERS 
SHOWING UP IN MARINE LEG PICTURE. FRONT SHOULD SLIP OFF COAST 
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TUESDAY THERE-BY SHIFTING 15-25 KT SW 
FLOW TO NW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM TEXAS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY REGION TOWARD CWFA/MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS 
BEGIN A BIT BRISK (15-20 KTS) WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FALL OUT 
QUICKLY LATER IN DAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE 1030MB HIGH SLIDES UP 
AND OVER REGION.   
 
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
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CGG/GC