FXUS04 KWBC 040650 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 249 AM EDT TUE MAY 04 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAY 05/1200 UTC THRU MAY 06/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR UNSEASONABLY DRY PATRN WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE U.S. AFTER UPR TROF EXITS THE NE U.S..WITH NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. CNTL U.S...GT LAKES...... A COUPLE AREAS OF GENLY LIGHT PCPN ARE EXPECT HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. SCTD SHWRS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF WEAK S/WV THAT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN LAKES TUES NIGHT WITH THE ETA HAVING TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE S/WV AND ASSOCD SFC FRONT..BUT WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MSTR...AT MOST EXPECT SOME .25 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATE IN THE PD. SCTD SHWRS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM MAY DVLP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACRS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. PWS INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT..BUT OVERALL DRYNESS AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS GENLY LESS THAN .25 INCH. ACRS THE NRN DAKOTAS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCD WARM ADV PATRN AHEAD OF WEAK PAC FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE NRN HI PLAINS COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TUES NIGHT OVER ERN ND INTO NE SD AND WRN MN. ETA AXIS OF HIER K VALUES ACRS THIS AREA SEEMED TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY HIER GFS AMOUNTS OF .25 INCH OR SO. PAC NW... MODEL MASS FIELDS AND QPFS ARE REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE. WEAK S/WV ENERGY EJECTING INLAND AHEAD OF OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TRIGGER MAINLY LIGHT SHRS ACRS THE PREFERRED HIER ELEVS. MAINE... PCPN ASSOCD WITH UPR TROF PUSHING EWD FROM THE GT LAKES REGION SHOULD END EARLY IN THE PD. MODEL QPFS GENLY SIMILAR WITH .25 INCH ACRS NRN MAINE..AND THIS WAS GENLY ACCEPTED. DAY 2... ...NEW ENG/MID ATLC/APLCHNS... MDLS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A CLUSTER OF MID LVL ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENG DURING THE PERIOD. TROF EXTENDING SWD SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE APLCHNS INTO THE MID ATLC. BEST ORGANIZED AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ASSOC WITH THE NEW ENG ENERGY DURING THE DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HRS... WITH SOME .25- .50 INCH AREAL AVG TOTALS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. FARTHER S... MID LVL TROF SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHTER AND MORE SCT RNFL FROM THE APLCHNS EWD. ...UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS... STG JET FLOWING FROM THE PAC NW EWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL SUPPORT SFC LOW PRES THAT TRACKS FROM JUST N OF ND TOWARD JAMES BAY... AND TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE UPR GRTLKS TO N-CNTRL PLAINS BY THE END OF WED NIGHT. WHILE AMTS ARE LGT... MDLS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE STG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RECENT GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z UKMET BOTH SHOW .25 INCH OR GREATER MAX AMTS IN CONTRAST TO THE CANADIAN WHICH KEEPS RNFL ALONG/N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE ETA HAS BROADENED ITS AREA OF LGT ACTIVITY COMPARED TO YDAY BUT IS STILL LIGHTER THAN THE GFS/UKMET. MSTR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH PW VALUES AROUND OR BELOW AN INCH... BUT STG LOW LVL JET SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AS MUCH DEVELOPMENT AS AN ETA/GFS BLEND WITH .10-.25 INCH MAX AMTS OVER MUCH OF MN INTO NRN WI. LIGHTER AMTS SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN WI/NRN MI. ...PAC NW... OVER THE LAST 24 HRS THE ETA HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW COAST AND FLOW OVER WRN CANADA... BRINGING ETA/GFS QPF INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. VERY MODEST MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MSTR WILL KEEP RNFL AMTS LGT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE WA CASCADES AND WA/NRN OR COAST... WITH MAX AMTS OF LESS THAN .25 INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. SULLIVAN/RAUSCH GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 05/12Z 0.01 510658 506646 501637 491628 488625 485623 480622 475620 468620 457621 445624 439625 433629 428632 425639 423647 423653 426663 432669 442678 445684 444692 440707 439712 440718 442720 454724 459724 466723 478718 486715 492710 496707 502699 505693 508683 510669 510658 0.01 524257 522249 524238 531218 535205 539188 541177 541171 541166 538150 535142 532133 528116 527109 526098 533081 534063 538048 540031 540022 537013 534007 532004 534000 541990 545986 549980 558966 560963 560958 558952 553946 543938 531936 519935 510937 506940 506945 506951 506972 505986 504996 504007 502015 502023 501032 500045 500054 498059 497071 497081 497102 500123 504135 506141 506147 504148 500146 497142 489131 485130 482132 476134 472137 470132 467127 464121 461121 457119 458114 462116 468116 472114 475110 482099 483096 483090 479084 468087 464098 458098 454095 450097 450103 449111 450115 454119 455124 454132 451148 452157 452165 450172 452178 455182 462182 463177 461171 463165 465163 470159 474157 478160 480166 482172 485177 489183 494187 497190 499193 502197 505204 504207 502206 498202 491199 489197 485199 479202 473205 464207 456212 445216 440218 438220 437222 439224 445226 452229 456231 452234 448235 447238 449241 449246 447250 442256 438264 435268 435272 436275 456270 461270 468272 484278 492281 495283 498287 503293 510297 0.01 514830 512819 509814 507810 505805 500797 489776 482765 472751 465741 461738 457736 450737 446739 438742 431746 420753 412761 405772 398783 392795 387803 372824 368833 365843 364849 364854 364863 367873 371885 373894 375907 378913 382918 388927 389932 392938 395945 397949 401964 409992 411000 414006 416008 421009 425009 428006 430999 430986 431982 435984 439987 448998 450003 454007 457013 458018 460027 462033 464042 465052 469065 472066 474065 477060 481044 482034 483030 481024 480019 479008 479989 481983 482980 483979 491974 495969 496962 494959 483955 473952 467949 458951 446955 441958 436961 432965 430967 428972 425972 424968 421962 412938 400909 399892 402881 404876 403867 402860 404853 409848 413851 416867 460860 469867 478876 484883 492892 495896 500898 506897 511893 514886 517877 518870 517862 513852 511845 510842 512836 514830 0.01 437242 436239 434237 431237 428238 427239 427242 428243 430244 431244 433244 436244 437242 0.01 268785 265780 257781 253782 250787 245792 242797 239802 235808 232819 229832 232835 235834 239833 242831 255825 261821 263816 267810 270804 269798 268788 268785 0.25 477672 475664 471657 468655 464654 462655 465660 468665 471673 471677 471683 472692 475694 478691 479686 478677 477672 0.25 532200 532193 530190 530184 529169 527164 524159 520155 518155 516157 517172 513171 510168 505165 502164 499166 497172 498177 506187 511196 516205 523216 527213 532200 0.25 514262 515252 515246 514239 513235 509231 504225 502219 497213 491211 482211 476213 474216 476219 478219 486222 489224 492228 498244 499249 497252 492248 485246 488252 490258 492262 498268 506269 511265 514262 0.25 520025 521015 519010 516016 513021 512026 511031 510035 511040 511049 512054 511058 510063 511067 514059 515054 516044 517039 519030 520025 0.25 440765 438762 437761 431763 426769 424771 421776 419781 417786 416791 415796 417800 419797 423792 426787 428784 432778 435776 438770 440765 0.25 472990 472986 472982 471978 469974 469973 468970 466967 465966 462963 462962 459961 456963 456964 457967 457968 458972 459976 460980 461983 462984 464988 465989 466991 468994 471994 472990 0.50 510255 509250 508242 505238 502233 499228 496222 495222 495226 497232 500237 502243 504248 506254 508257 510255 0.50 518191 517189 517186 515181 515180 513177 511175 510174 507174 506179 508184 509185 511188 514190 517192 518191 24HR QP VT 06/12Z 0.01 526257 526249 527240 526228 527219 530216 536211 538197 540183 540167 535156 533141 531125 529109 529099 529088 530068 532053 533038 535024 536009 538995 543973 545961 547949 548935 549919 550903 550892 549882 547872 546862 546852 544834 540814 538806 536800 531789 525781 519773 515769 506765 500764 492763 485764 480766 477763 477756 478749 479744 481737 480728 478721 477715 478710 479698 479686 481674 482668 481663 481652 481647 478641 476639 472635 466637 451649 440656 434661 414677 405686 404689 399695 394704 391707 387713 385715 383720 376725 371732 369737 368741 366750 368760 367763 363767 362771 362774 365776 369776 375772 388766 391765 394766 394773 393783 391787 388791 376797 373801 371806 370817 371822 373824 378824 383822 394809 400802 405798 409796 417793 427788 432785 438779 444779 448780 452783 454786 461796 463802 464810 463813 460815 457813 454810 449808 446810 442814 440823 440834 440843 441858 442868 442871 440873 436874 429874 426877 426883 426889 428896 433907 439931 441947 444957 451964 457968 463975 465987 470995 473999 476002 483006 489013 493020 494033 495074 496091 497105 498119 498127 497135 495137 493135 489132 478133 479138 483140 486144 488151 490153 494157 494159 491162 488163 486162 482155 474153 467148 466150 467154 470158 478164 480163 482163 483167 483174 487179 493186 500192 503197 505201 507206 507212 505216 495204 492203 490198 483204 474207 468209 462213 458216 457220 458226 462229 454231 450234 447237 448242 454246 458249 462249 473251 479254 483259 488269 492277 498287 504290 509289 514286 517282 0.01 491234 489229 486226 483226 480225 478225 480227 482231 482233 485234 488234 491234 491234 0.01 474229 474228 472223 471223 470227 471229 474229 474229 0.01 473046 474038 473029 472025 469020 465017 461017 459022 459030 460039 462044 465050 468053 472051 473046 0.01 457085 458080 458076 458072 458068 457064 456063 453061 451064 451068 451072 451076 451080 451084 452089 453089 455089 456088 457085 0.01 370851 367845 365838 362834 358830 356827 354824 350820 347820 344822 343828 343832 345835 348841 350844 354850 356853 360855 365856 368855 370851 0.01 261817 259812 256808 257806 257802 255800 249799 245805 244808 240815 240822 244827 249823 253820 258819 261817 0.25 534834 534827 533820 531814 529810 522809 517809 513811 507814 503817 498825 495835 493844 491852 489860 489866 490874 490895 491902 493909 494916 494923 495936 497941 499946 505948 509951 509953 505954 503954 501957 498965 499974 501977 505979 518962 521971 523977 531960 536942 538930 538918 538905 536891 533878 530867 530850 532840 534834 0.25 531175 531169 530160 527147 521134 516125 513123 510125 507139 504145 503150 504155 505159 504163 501168 499172 500176 502182 508192 514199 518203 523202 525198 525194 525183 528179 531175 0.25 518263 517258 515252 513246 510236 508234 503232 500229 498225 496222 495222 494227 495231 500237 502247 505258 510264 515267 518263 0.25 518058 518054 518049 518044 517040 515044 514047 514049 513054 512058 512063 513068 514069 515068 517063 517061 518058 0.25 454715 453711 451709 450709 448709 444709 443709 441710 439711 438713 438717 437718 438718 440720 442721 445721 446722 449721 452720 454717 454715 0.25 446744 445740 442737 438735 434735 429738 425737 422735 419735 416737 413743 413746 415750 419755 422756 427756 431755 437753 442749 446744 0.50 515888 514878 513874 512870 509867 506867 503871 501877 500884 500889 500898 501907 502916 505922 508919 510913 512908 514901 516892 515888 0.50 524168 524164 523159 523157 522154 520150 519148 518146 515145 512146 511147 510151 509156 511161 513165 514166 516169 519171 522171 524168 0.50 518191 518186 515181 515180 513177 510175 510174 509175 508179 509184 512186 514187 517191 518191 $$