CITRUS
JULY FORECAST
FORECAST COMPONENTS

ORANGES NOW 223.0 MILLION BOXES

  The last all orange forecast of the 2000-01 season, released today by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the USDA, has a reduction of 1.0 million boxes to 223.0 million. Although this harvest is four percent below last season's production, it is 20 percent higher than the recorded production of 1998-99. The record high was 244.0 million boxes in the 1997-98 season.

  The entire change occurred in the Valencia portion of the crop, now forecast at 95.0 million boxes. This amount is four percent less than last season's final. A route survey (Row Count) conducted as of June 29 showed over four percent of the rows unharvested which, with estimated utilization to that date, indicated sufficient volume to attain the current forecast.

  The early and midseason oranges, including 5.1 million boxes of Navels, are final at 128.0 million boxes. This crop is four percent below the 134.0 million boxes in 1999-00 and nine percent below the record of 140.0 million boxes in 1997-98.

  Further reductions result in a grapefruit forecast of 45.9 million boxes, 14 percent less than last season and the smallest crop since 1991-92. With decreases of 300,000 boxes each, the white grapefruit is forecast at 18.7 million while colored grapefruit is now 27.2 million boxes. If realized, these harvests will be 11 and 15 percent less than the previous season's. The route survey indicates fewer than five percent of the white rows remaining for harvest but nearly 11 percent of the colored rows unpicked. The final utilization estimates released in September will include estimates of economic abandonment in footnotes if measurable amounts occur.

SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE

  Temple production at 1.25 million boxes is down 36 percent from last season. This is the lowest recorded utilization, including freeze seasons, since the series began in 1953-54. Tangelo utilization declined five percent this season and, at 2.1 million boxes, is the smallest crop since 1968-69. Although the tangerine forecasts are below the level of 1999-00, they are very close to the average of the past five seasons. Utilization of K-Early Citrus Fruit tied the record low of 40,000 boxes in 1997-98.

FCOJ REMAINS 1.58 GALLONS PER BOX

  The all orange yield forecast remains unchanged at 1.58 gallons per box of 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.540728 gallons per box. Valencias going into FCOJ are forecast at 1.65 gallons per box.

  The table shows the production components used for the 2000-01 forecast season. Bearing trees are estimated at the beginning of each forecast season using the most recent Commercial Citrus Inventory with an allowance for expected attrition. Revisions are made to the historic series where applicable.

  Fruit per tree is the weighted average obtained from the annual Limb Count Survey. This survey is conducted during a two-month period beginning in late July. Survey averages for each tree age group within an area are weighted by the estimated number of bearing trees for each age group.

  Fruit size measurements and drop observations are obtained from monthly size and drop surveys. The average drop percentages are from the "cut-off" month survey which varies by variety according to the usual harvest period. Average fruit sizes were also obtained from the same survey period but have been converted in the table to estimated number of fruit needed to fill a box.

  These four factors are the primary components used in the initial October forecast and in following months up to the "cut-off" for each fruit type. The first two have the greatest influence on the forecast.

2

Hits since July 1, 1999