AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 220 PM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 ...CLEARING AND WINDS PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT... 20Z SFC AND LATEST 88D LOOPS SHOW FRONT IS NEAR A DBQ TO MUT TO BRL LINE MOVING EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO GRADIENT BUT ENHANCED BY GOOD DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DIURNAL FACTOR OF CLEARING TO MIX MOMENTUM TO SFC. NONE OF MODELS HANDLE THIS WELL EXCEPT FOR RUC. NORMALLY THIS PHENOMENA WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 4 TO 5 PM AS DIURNAL FACTOR WEAKENS AND THIS IS ALSO WHAT RUC SUGGESTS. THUS...WILL GO WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY MID EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF FRONT SO EASTERN HALF WILL GO WITH BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR WESTERN HALF FORECAST AREA. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING IN AND SUBSIDENCE PLUS ANALYSIS SHOWS ALL MODELS ARE TOO WEAK ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH NGM BEST ON STRENGTH AND TIMING. BESIDES THIS...ALL MODELS AT LARGER SCALE SUGGEST THEY ARE HANDLING FEATURES WITH THE TYPICAL BIASES...ESPECIALLY TEMPS WITH ETA BOUNDARY LAYER (BL) TOO COOL AND AVN BL TOO WARM SO THIS SUPPORTS FWC AS BEST TOOL TO USE AS GUIDANCE THRU MONDAY. BIG DISCREPANCY ON TUESDAY MAX TEMPS AND FWC SEEMS TOO COOL AND WILL FAVOR WARMER FAN NUMBERS AS SUGGESTED BY ETA AND FAN AT 48 HOURS AS MATCH UP WELL AT SFC AND 850 TEMPS AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AID IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES AND WEAK SFC HIGH SUPPORTS A MAINLY CLEAR SCENARIO AS SATELLITE SUPPORTS THIS THROUGH MONDAY PM. THEN TIMING OF CLOUDS AS FRONT STARTS TO MOVE BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY. WILL BRING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AT BOTH LOW AND HIGH LEVELS. ...DAY 3 THRU 5... DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST US AND STRONG BAROCLINICITY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW AND OPEN GULF SUPPORTS A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD. THUS...LIKELY POPS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AND THURS AND COOLER AND RAIN ON FRIDAY. TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE IS BASED MAINLY ON THIS AM 12Z CANADIAN POSITION OF FRONT THO ALL MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. MRF IS VERY MOIST IN LOW LEVELS WHICH BASED ON RH SUGGEST MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SO MAX TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC SO WILL KEEP CLOSER TO CURRENT NUMBERS. .DVN... IL...NONE. IA...NONE. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED IN THE CHIZFPDVN. DBQ AB 032/056 034/063 042 16000 CID AB 032/057 036/066 044 16000 MLI AB 035/058 035/066 045 16000 BRL AB 038/061 040/069 049 16000 NICHOLS NNNN ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 230 PM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 MID-DAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. FORECAST ISSUES TO ADDRESS WILL BE ENDING POP CHANCES AND THEN CLEARING TRENDS. NGM/ETA SOLUTIONS ARE SLOW COMPARED TO REAL-TIME WX. 850MB THETA-E AND VORTICITY PATTERNS SERVE AS 2 EXAMPLES. 28/15Z RUC REFLECTED OBSERVED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...EXTRAPOLATED 28/15Z RUC PAST ITS 29/03Z 12HR SOLUTION FOR FIRST PERIOD OF ZONES. RUC SHOWS NVA ACROSS FA THROUGH 29/03Z. RUC 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LINES UP ACROSS AR/MO-KY/TN BORDER ALONG WITH DIFLUENT 250MB WINDS. THIS PATTERN FITS WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW DIMINISHED AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN 1/2 OF FA. WILL GO WITH LINGERING EVENING SPRINKLES IN NORTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH 1/2 OF FA. CENTRAL PLAINS MOISTURE REVEALED ON 28/12Z 700MB CHART WILL TAKE TIME TO ADVECT THROUGH FA. SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD MOVING SLOWLY. ISENTROPIC (I295K) DONWGLIDE WILL HELP CLEAR SKY ACROSS NORTH 1/2 OF FA AROUND NOON MONDAY. CLOUD TRENDS A LITTLE TOUGHER ALONG SOUTH BORDER OF FA. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG GULF COAST AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS MOISTURE ACROSS DIXIE...AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH BORDER OF FA. FWC TEMPS HAVE BEEN CUT DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS RUN. THAT FITS WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD SOLUTION AND COOL THERMAL PATTERNS FROM MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. ECMWF SHOWS WEAK SFC LOW IN LOWER MS VALLEY ON WED...FOR DAY 3 POP. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP AGAIN BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PLAINS LOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION POPS WARRANTED FOR DAY 4 & DAY 5. .PAH...NONE. PW/DH/MN NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD ISSUANCE TIME... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 240 PM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 LATEST MODEL RUNS THROWING A CURVE AS UVV'S ON INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. NOT REAL CONSISTENT WITH WHAT RUC WAS SHOWING OF A SHORT WAVE BRINGING AVERAGE 1/4 INCH PCPN NW LA THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNT SURELY ON HIGH SIDE GIVEN LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...A BATCH OF RAIN IS INDEED SLIDING NORTH ALONG LA/TX BORDER ATTM. IF THERE IS ANY TRUTH TO THE ETA...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ELEVATED THUNDER CENTERED AROUND THE 12Z MONDAY TIMEFRAME. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO FOLLOW TX COASTLINE AND GRADUALLY DRIFT OFFSHORE. BAROTROPIC NATURE OF SYSTEM PRECLUDE MUCH TEMP ADVECTION AND THUS LESSENING DIURNAL TEMP RANGE IN DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL NEED TO START THE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT WITH PRESENT ACTIVITY AFFECTING PARTS OF AREA INTO EARLY EVE. SHV 57/66/55/65 7765 MLU 55/65/54/65 5776 TYR 56/64/52/69 8743 TXK 53/63/52/64 6532 LFK 59/65/55/72 7866 VII NNNN la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 945 AM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEARING SOUTHERN TIP OF TX CONTINING TO GRADUALLY FILL. NEITHER MESO-ETA OR RUC SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN AREA TODAY OR THIS EVENING...IN FACT NVA PREDOMINANT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE AT LOW LEVELS AND CHANCES OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ONLY INDICATE A FEW SPRINKLES IN DEEP EAST TX AND ZILCH ELSEWHERE THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. 850 DRY TONGUE FURTHER NORTH WILL NEED MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES IN SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN 60S. VII NNNN la SYNOPTIC EXPLANATION/FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 VIS/IR LOOP SHOWING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING JUST OFF OF DELAWARE COAST... WITH N/NE FLOW CONTINUING TO SPREAD CLOUDS BACK ACROSS MOST OF LWX CWA. 03Z ETA AND 12Z RUC INDICATE THAT STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF SHORE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND MID DAY... THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO HEAD OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS LOW MOVES EAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. FEEL THAT CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS... WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR BWI/NHK AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FWC MOS IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUN THIS MORNING.. AND MAY RAISE FORECAST HIGHS JUST A BIT FOR CHO/SHD/MRB. CLOUDY SKIES FOR DCA/BWI SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN.. BUT MAY RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THESE AREAS AS ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST SHOULD PUSH TEMPS UP RATHER QUICKLY. .WBC...NONE. MARGRAF! EFFECTIVE 9 AM EST MONDAY MARCH 29 1999...THE SYNOPTIC EXPLANATION/ FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FXUS71 KLWX AND AFOS HEADER WBCSFDWBC WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER FXUS61 KLWX AND AFOS HEADER WBCAFDLWX. NNNN md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1057 AM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. A SECOND LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WAS GETTING INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW DENSE CLOUD SHIELD LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. THE AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON CENTER ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPIATION CHANCES. NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING AT ALL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MOST OF CWA. 12Z RUC AND EARLY PEEK AT NEW ETA/NGM CONTINUE TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS FOR PAST FEW HOURS WOULD CONFIRM THIS TRACK. BEST MOISTURE/PRECPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY NORTH WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT RAIN ALONG COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH/UPPER RIDGE AND THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FURTHER NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS IOWA. FOR UPDATE...WILL DROP MENTION OF RAIN FROM ALL ZONES FOR AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER. WILL ALSO BACK OFF A BIT ON WIND WORDING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET. BAK NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1010 AM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 999 MB SFC LO NCNTRL MN WITH AXIS OF WK HI PRES RDG FM ERN LE TO NE LH. WK VORT LOB ACRS WRN FA WITH STRNG S/W ACRS MN. LATEST IR AND VIS LOOP IMAGERY AND MQT AND DLH 88D RETURNS SHOW BOTH FEATURES. MID LVL CLDS AND VRY LGT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES WITH WK LOB OVR WRN FA AND LWR CLDS AND MORE SIG RAINS WITH MN S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO. ERN PTN OF FA YET TO SEE EFFECTS OF APRCH SYSTMS BUT WILL SHRTLY. PROBLEM FOR DAY IS TIMING OF PRECIP ALNG WITH HOW SIG PRECIP WILL BE IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND AMNTS. IR LOOP AND MQT 88D SHOW COOLER TOPS AND HIGHEST 88D REFLECTIVITY MOVG DUE N ACRS MN ARROWHEAD INTO ONT. NARROW BAND OF WARMER TOPS AND LOWER 88D REFLECTIVITY ASSOCICATED WITH CDFNT MN NR INL TO DSM AT 28/12Z. WRN PTN OF FA AREA FOR MST SIG COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL MONITOR SFC OBS AND 88D RETURNS BEFORE DECIDING HOW HARD TO HIT PRECIP FEATURE OVER THE W IN MRNG UPDATE PKG. LATEST RUC RUN 28/12Z CAPTURES THIS IDEA WITH SFC LO...AND STRNGST UPWARD MOTION PROGD N OF LS LATE TODAY. THUS XCPT FOR W AS INDICATED ABOVE...WILL GO WITH A MORE SCT PREICP EVENT FOR MST OF FA WITH UPDATE. .MQT...NONE. JFM NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EST SAT MAR 27 1999 THE 18Z MESOETA SEEMS TO BE TRACKING THE MOVEMENT OF PCPN BEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN BAND EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL TO N-CENTRAL MN WITH MAX PCPN CENTERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NE SD. AS OF 00Z...6 HR PCPN ACROSS THESE MAX CENTERS RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MESOETA DEPICTS THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SLIDE INTO SWRN MN BY 09Z. MAX QPF SEEMS TO FOLLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE MAX QPF WILL BE OVER FAR WRN CWFA BY 15Z AND ACROSS WRN HALF OF U.P. BY 21Z. ETA IS FASTEST MOVG QPF OUT OF REGION WHILE NGM AND AVN BOTH HAVE PCPN BEGINING TO MOVE OUT OF WRN CWFA AT 06Z. WILL BACK OFF ON CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK WITH SLOWER ADVANCEMENT. DROP TO 30 PERCENT OF -SHRA IN FAR WEST AND DROP WORDING IN KEWEENAW. TEMPS IN WRN UP A LITTLE WARMER THAN PROJECTED. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE MOVING INTO REGION A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT MORE MILD. 00Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO WILL BUMP UP MINS A LITTLE. .MQT...NONE. RASMUSSEN NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 405 AM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 OVERLAY OF AWIPS MTR AND 3.9 STLT DATA AT 0900 UTC SHWS SFC CD FNT/WND SHFT LN XTNDG ALG FSD OFK RSL LN AND MVG STEADILY TO E. XTRAPOLATION PUTS FNT INTO NW MO BY 1200 UTC AND THRU ALL OF CWA BY ABT 1900 UTC. THIS IN CLOSE ALLIGNMENT WITH ETA AND LATEST RUC WHICH APPR TO HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON SPEED OF FNT ATTM. WV LOOP SHWS STG 150 KT JET AT H3 ANALYZED OVR OREGON AT 0000 UTC LAST NITE DRIVING THRU WY ATTM RESULTING IN BEST LWR TROPOSPHERIC PRES FALLS OVR ERN SD. AS A RESULT CORE OF LL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL TO N OF FCST AREA OVR IA/MN. 88-D RETURNS STILL SHW WIDESPRD -RA OVR ERN CWA AND BKN SHWRS ACR ERN KS ALG SFC/H8 WND SHFT LN. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AM FOR ERN CWA THEN BECMG PTLY CLDY WHERE IN W USED CHC POPS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY MSTLY SUNNY. WV LOOP ALSO SHWS XTNSV DRYING IN MID LVLS BHD WND SHFT FEATURE TO SUPPORT RAPID CLRG IN AREA OF SFC-H8 AND H8-H7 FRONTOLYTIC FORCING. WITHOUT SGFNT CAA BHD FNT AND RETURN OF SUNSHINE THINK THAT FAN/FWC A BIT TOO COOL FOR TDY OVR ERN KS/WRN MO. WILL THERFORE GO A CAT ABV GUIDANCE. COOLER GUIDANCE MORE WITHIN REASON OVR ERN ZNS DUE TO XPTD SLOWER VACATING OF CLD CVR. WITH CLR SKIES AND DRIER AMS TNGT THINK THAT TEMPS SHLD FALL OFF TO MID TO UPR 30S. FWC APPRS TO BE TOO CHILLY WHERE AS FAN A BIT ON WRM SIDE KEEPING MOST SITES UP ARND 40. USED MIDDLE OF ROAD SOLN. REST OF FCST LKS JUST FINE WITH SUNSHINE AND QUICK WRM UP MON AND TUE THRU XTND FCST. .EAX... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. BODNER NNNN mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 AM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 SHRTWV MOVG THRU ERN NEBR SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE PCPN E/NE OF FCST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTR ZONE ISSUANCE WITH DECREASING CLDS...SPCLY SRN SECTIONS. VIS/FOG CURVE AND SFC OBS SHOWD LOW CLD DECK WRAPPING INTO N CNTRL NEBR ANRD SFC LOW ERN SD. THESE CLDS LOOK LIKE THEY WL MOV INTO NERN ZONES THIS MORNING. ALTHO LATEST RUC INDICATED HIGHER LOW LVL RH RMNG N OF FCST AREA...IT DIDN/T SEEM TO DO TOO WELL THRU 09Z. WL WORD NERN ZONES VRBLY CLDY THIS MORNING TO HANDLE LOW CLDS THIS MORNING AND PTSUNNY THIS AFTN AS THERMAL TROF MOVS ACRS AREA. CNTRL/SRN ZONES STILL LOOK MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. LATEST RUC AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE A LTL MORE WND INTO EARLY AFTN AND LOOKG UPSTREAM THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WL RAISE WNDS A LTL...BUT ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO A DECREASE THIS AFTN. WITH SUNSHINE AND NW WNDS...IT SHOULD BE A WELL MIXED DAY WITH AVN 850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY FAVORD. THIS WOULD BRING HIGHS INTO UPR 50S NERN ZONES TO LOWER 60S S...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH FWC. FOR TNGT INTO MONDAY...MODELS VERY CLOSE WITH MAIN DETAILS. JET CROSSES AREA EARLY THEN SHIFTS N AS HGTS RISE. ISENTROPIC LIFT ARND 295 K SFC IN RRQ OF UPR JET GENERATES SOME INCREASE IN RH BUT PRBLY TOO DRY FOR PCPN. WL PUT MORE CLDS IN TNGT INTO MON PD AND RAISE LOWS A LTL TNGT AND LOWER THEM A TOUCH ON MON...GENERALLY COMP BTWN FWC AND FAN. EXTD LOOKS WRM/DRY OAX CWA TUE AND WED BASED ON LATEST ECMWF/MRF. A LTL MORE IFFY ON THU AS MRF TRIES TO BRING CDFNT INTO NRN NEBR. THUS PREV EXTDD LOOKS PRETTY GOOD ATTM. .OMA...NONE CHERMOK NNNN ne EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 350 PM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY: POPS CLOUDS WEATHER WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE STAYING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AND HARD TO FIND SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM IN SOUTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES LAYING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH 18Z RUC SHOWING A S/W MOVING FROM W OK/NC TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND HAVE BECOME EASTERLY WITH WEAK SURFACE FRONT STAYING JUST NW OF NE OKLAHOMA. MODELS DIFFER IN FATE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NGM HANGING ON THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES THE LONGEST WITH ETA THE FASTEST TO MOVE DRY AIR INTO NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BOTTOM OF SURFACE HIGH THAT IS FCST TO BUILD INTO MO. AVN IS SIMILAR TO ETA BUT NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRYING SOUTH. WILL GENERALLY SIDE WITH AVN RH FORECASTS AND KEEP HIGHER POPS...MORE CLOUDS...LOWER MAX TEMPS AND WARMER MIN TEMPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. FAN AND FWC MAX TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM IF CLOUDS REMAIN AS TUFF AS NGM/AVN GRIDDED RH PROGGS INDICATE. FOR TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SE 1/2 OF THE AREA AND TAPER POPS TO 20% IN ZNS NW OF TULSA. WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT AROUND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH 4TH PERIOD IN FAR SE OKLAHOMA WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNTIL THE AREA GETS IN GOOD SW FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT. AVN SHOWS 850 MB RH DECREASING RAPIDLY BY 72 HRS WITH DEEP UPPER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO WESTERN US. WINDY AND MILD WX WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM MRF FCSTS TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM IN DEEPENING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...BUT AIRMASS MAY STILL BE CAPPED AWAITING UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FCSTID = 13 TUL 47 63 48 64 / 20 5 5 5 FSM 47 60 47 63 / 60 40 20 20 MLC 48 62 48 62 / 50 30 20 20 BVO 41 66 44 67 / 10 5 5 5 FYV 46 60 42 60 / 60 20 5 20 IDB 46 64 46 62 / 70 40 30 30 BYV 40 60 40 62 / 30 10 5 10 MIO 40 60 40 62 / 30 10 5 10 MKO 47 62 47 62 / 30 20 10 10 F10 47 62 47 62 / 30 20 10 10 HHW 46 63 47 62 / 70 40 30 30 .TUL... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. -------------------- EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT: HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: NONE NGM CONFIDENCE: 6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 ETA CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 AVN CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10 NNNN ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS STRENGTHENED AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS...WITH A NOTICEABLE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ACT TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND MAINTAIN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RECENT RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS MESOSCALE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OKLAHOMA BRIDGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW STILL PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALOFT...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND PLAN TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR THE RED RIVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES RISES TO A MINIMUM. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. FCSTID =20/JAMES NNNN ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 940 PM CST SAT MAR 27 1999 WILL LOWER OR TAKE OUT POPS ALL TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS UPDATE. RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE HANDLING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WELL THIS EVENING...AND MODEL PROGS THE ACTIVITY TO CONT A WEAKENING TREND AND MOVE NORTH OF OKLAHOMA. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONTENDERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL WORD ZONES ACCORDINGLY. STRONG WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF PRECIP SHIELD SEEN THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MAINLY A RESULT OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THE RAIN SHIELD. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH REPORTED BY MESONET. WINDY CONDITIONS ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO AND HAVE HAD NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE. WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTEMENTS TO 2ND PERIOD BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA. 11 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. NNNN ok CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 210 AM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 ...WORK ZONES OUT BY 330AM AS PHLADMCTP... ...ZONES OUT BY 4AM AS PHLZFPCTP... SAT LOOPS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE STORM TRACKING JUST WEST OF NORTH AT AROUND 11KT...AND MAY BE SLOWING FURTHER THE LAST FEW FRAMES. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW HURRICANE-LIKE SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING WESTWARD THRU NJ INTO ERN PA. SYSTEM SEEMS TO WANT TO REMAIN A PLAYER AT LEAST THRU MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED OUT TO THE EAST. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIP WILL GO. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THEIR QPF. THE RUC LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SOME RUN FROM A WHOLE DIFFERENT DAY. IT HAS NO PRECIP WHERE LGT-MDT RAIN IS FALLING NOW. ETA AND MESO ETA ARE BOTH UNDERDONE AND TOO SLOW. IN THE END THOUGH...THEY MAY PROVE TO BE NOT TOO BAD AT LEAST IN HOW FAR WEST THE QPF WILL END UP. HARD TO FIND BEST MODEL GENERATED FORCING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BANDED TYPE PRECIP CURRENTLY FALLING. MESO ETA DOES CREATE SOME MEASURE OF MOIST FRONTOGENESIS...WITH BEST FIT TO PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS. THIS CORRESPONDS BEST TO DEPICTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH IS MADE TO INTENSIFY THRU 12Z BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN AND DISORGANIZE. ONLY THE ETA HAS ANY KIND OF NEG EPV AIR PROGGED INTO THE REGION...IN A RELATIVELY THIN LAYER WHICH SLOPES UP FROM NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER OFFSHORE TO AROUND 550MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF HARRISBURG. WHATEVER HAPPENS SEEMS DESTINED TO DO SO FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HRS BEFORE MODELS WEAKEN THE FORCING AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST. FRONTOGENESIS MAKES MOST WESTWARD PROGRESS IN LOW LEVELS THRU ABOUT 09Z...FROM MESO ETA...BEFORE BEING MADE TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND LOSE ORGANIZATION. LNS WENT FROM A MID LEVEL OVERCAST TO MVFR AND RAIN WITH A GUST TO 30KT AS THE SPIRAL BAND MOVED IN. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE RAIN WILL SWEEP TOO MUCH FARTHER WEST...BUT WHERE TO DRAW A LINE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. AFTER WE LOSE THIS LOW...WARM UP SEEN AS HGHTS RISE AND BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS FOR MID WEEK. SOME SPOTTY PRECIP POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT IS MADE TO FALL APART AS IT DOWN INTO DIFLUENT FLOW. MAY PUT LOW CHC POPS NW ZONES TO FIT THIS. .CTP...NONE. LA CORTE NNNN pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 940 AM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 QUITE A NICE RECOVERY AFTER A FROSTY START THIS MORNING. A LOOK AT 12Z 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUPPORTS OUR GOING HIGHS OF AROUND 70 PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND IN THE 60S MTNS. THE 09Z RUC AND MESO- ETA BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THINK SUBSIDENCE IN NARROW RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN STATIONARY MID ATLANTIC LOW AND JET BUSTING THROUGH WRN US WL HOLD MOST OFF THE CLOUDS TIL EVENING. I MAY GO LGT ON WNDS AS OPPOSED TO W AT 10 AS WE HAVE IN MOST OF THE ZONES ATTM...WL WAIT A BIT AND SEE WHAT MIXES DOWN BY LATE MORNING ISSUANCE TIME. .GSP...NONE MCAVOY NNNN sc SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 935 AM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 KHGX SHOWS SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY OVER SERN TX. THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NWRN IA WITH A WARM FRONT FROM NCNTRL IA TO WCNTRL LA AND A COLD FRONT FROM SWRN IA TO NERN NM. A SFC LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TX HAS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NNEWRD TO NWRN AR. THE 13Z MAPS SOUNDING FOR HOU IS STILL SATURATED...BUT THERE IS DRYING BETWEEN 950 AND 800 MB AT IAH AND A LARGE DRY AREA BETWEEN 950 AND 600 MB AT AUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW. TRAJECTORY EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS JUST OFF CRP THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TIMING/TRENDING POPS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE 00Z AVN/NGM/ETA AND 12Z RUC ALL GENERATE ONLY WEAK LIFT AND HENCE LOWER POPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...ALL PICK UP ON THE VORT LOBE AND FOCUS PRECIP OVER SERN TX AND SWRN LA BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SWRD PROGRESS AND FOCUS RAIN IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE EVIDENCE IN HAND...WILL LOWER POPS FOR ALL AREAS TODAY. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS TO REISSUE A HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK FOCUSING ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THANKS TO LCH FOR COORD. 31/47 .HGX...SCA 0-50NM COASTAL WATERS. UPDATE PRELIMS... CLL ER 066/057 066/054 066 277 IAH ET 067/060 070/056 068 388 GLS WT 067/065 069/060 070 488 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 945 AM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY WILL BEGIN TO EDGE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO EXTREME SOUTH VERMONT AND IN LINE WITH ETA FORECAST. RUC INDICATES RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES LATE MORNING AND ORANGE AND ADDISON THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HALTING. RAIN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FORECAST AREA AND SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS EASTERN GREENS IN UPSLOPE. DID ADD SPRINKLES TO ZONES JUST TO NORTH AND WEST OF HERE...BUT STILL BELIEVE RAIN WILL NOT REACH ANY FURTHER NORTH WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. SUNSHINE WILL BE BRIGHTEST ACROSS FAR WEST ZONES AND HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. .BTV...NONE DIGIORGI NNNN vt EASTERN WISCONSIN FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 302 PM CST SUN MAR 287 1999 FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS RAMSDIS VIS LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUD EROSION MOVG INTO SW WI...WITH ONLY SCT SC IN WAKE OF SFC LO...NOW MOVG THRU NE MN. 12Z ETA AND 15Z RUC DRY PUNCH IN MID LVLS DEPICTED ON NTRANS VERIFYING WELL WITH THESE CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROF WL HELP CLEAR SKIES FROM W TO E ACROSS SRN WI TNT. CYCLONIC FLO AND MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH 2ND WK SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS NRN WI TMRW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN NE WI...BUT PT SUNNY SHUD WRK. FLAT RDG BUILDS ACROSS RGN AT ALL LVLS FOR ERLY PRT OF WEEK. WAA KICKS IN ON TUE WITH SOME MID LVL CLDNESS ON NTRANS 700 MB RH CHRT. CLOUDS WILL OFF SET WAA A BIT FOR HI TEMPS ON TUE. AS STATED...TEMPS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TNT AND TMRW. FWC GUIDNC APPEARS A BIT TOO WRM...BUT ETA 2M TEMPS TOO COLD IN SHORT TERM. PARCEL TRAJ INDICATE SOUTH WILL HAVE AIRMASS FM ERN SD WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S...AND NRTHEAST WL REACH LWR 50S. NO 60S UNTIL TUE IN SW. TWEAKED FAN GUIDN DWNWRD FOR ERLY PDS AND TRENDED MORE WITH FWC FOR LATER PDS. .UW-NMS...NOT AVAILABLE. THANKS TO GRB FOR INPUT. .MKX...NONE. REM NNNN wi EASTERN WISCONSIN FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1202 PM CST SUN MAR 287 1999 UPDATED FORECAST FOR PCPN TRENDS RAPIDLY MOVING NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP IS RACING ACROSS SRN WI... AND WL EXIT EAST ERLY THIS AFTN. 12Z ETA AND 15Z RUC INDICATE DRY PUNCH IN MID LVLS WILL WORK FARTHER NORTH THAN 00Z RUNS. THIS IS VERIFYING WELL WITH CLOUD TRENDS IN IA ON RAMSDIS VISIBLE LOOPS. WNDS ARE CRANKING UP ACROSS CWA...SO ADDED GUSTS TO FCST. FEEL HI TEMPS WERE GENERALLY ALRIGHT... WITH EASTERN ZONES HITTING HI/S ERLY...AND WESTERN ZONES GETTING SOME LT AFTN SUN. DROPPED CNTRL ZONES A BIT...WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR DIPPING TEMPS INTO THE LO 40S...AND RECOVERY INTO THE LO 50S EXPECTED BY SUNDOWN. .MKX...NONE. $$ REM NNNN wi SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 824 PM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHRA OVER CENTRAL LA MOVING INTO NE LA AND MS. OTHER SHRA OFF THE UPPER SE TX COAST DIMINISHING ON APPROACH TO COASTAL AREAS. LOOKING AT THE WV/11.0-3.9/IR LOOPS...CLR SKIES WORKING ACROSS SE TX WITH LOW LVL CLDS OVER SW/CENTRAL LA. 29/00Z RUC MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY LIFT OVERNIGHT. BOTTOM LINE...WOULD LIKE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS FA AND REMOVE WORDING OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN 1ST PD. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST PKG LOOKS GOOD. 13 BPT WW 061/067 059/071 064 596 LCH WW 061/067 059/068 064 597 LFT WW 059/067 058/069 065 597 AEX WW 054/066 053/066 056 597 NNNN la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED ADVISORY INFO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1000 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBILITY FOR ANY LINGERING LGT PCPN. WV LOOP SHOWED POTENT SHRTWV PROPAGATING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPR MI. 01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LO PRESSURE FROM YQT MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPR MI. STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LO CREATING GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH SINCE 01Z AT IWD...IMT...CMX AND MQT. TERRAIN EFFECTS WITH WEST WIND WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE GUSTS OVER KEWEENAW. MSAS SHOWED LARGE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT OVER WRN UPR MI WITH 11 MB RISE/FALL COUPLET HELPING TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS. KMQT VAD WIND PRFL SHOWED WINDS TO 35 KTS AT 2K FT UP TO 50 KTS AT 4K FEET LAST FEW HOURS. MODERATE 850-900 CAA FROM 00Z-06Z BEHIND FRONT...PER 00Z RUC...WILL ALSO HELP TO MIX HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TOWARD SFC. 00Z RUC LLVL WIND FCST SEEMS REASONABLE IN KEEPING STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF UPR MI CLOSEST TO ISALLOBARIC MAX. DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS ALREADY APPARENT OVER NW WI TO IWD AS PRES RISE MAX ADVANCES INTO AREA. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS AND 00Z RUC SUGGESTS WINDS BLO ADVISORY CATEGORY FOR IWD AND ONTONAGON BY 04Z BUT WOULD BRING DECREASE FOR CMX...P59 AND MQT MAINLY FROM 05Z TO 07Z. KMQT 88D SHOWED WRAP AROUND -SHRA AND SPRINKLES OVER NW HLF OF UPR MI. KDLH RADAR INDICATED LITTLE REMAINING UPSTREAM. SUBSIDENCE WITH GOOD DNVA AND QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DECREASE WITH ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED CHANGEOVER TO FLURRIES WITH INFLUX OF COLDER AIR PER 00Z RUC/ETA 900 MB TEMPS 850-1000 THICKNESS. .MQT...HIGH WIND ADVISORY MIZ001>006-009. JLB NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 833 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 RDU/CAE: THINK PTCLDY WILL DO FINE TNGT W/ THE CI/AC HAVING ALREADY ENCROACHED THE CWA. RAH: MAY WANT TO SWAP SRN CSTL PLN TEMPS W/ SRN CSTL AREA. CAE: MAY WANT TO GO W/ A RANGE OF TEMPS ALG GRND STRND (MID 40S INL TO UPR 40S CST). IR PIX/MTRS SHOW PLENTY OF CI & SUM AC HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA. APPRS TO BE A GAP IN THE COVERAGE OVR WRN NC/ERN TN W/ MORE CLDS BEHIND IT ASSOC W/ NXT VORT. 21Z RUC2 SHEARS THIS VORT BUT WUD XPCT SUM CLDS W/ IT. SFC HI PRES CONTG TO BLD IN FM THE S AS THE LO OFF DELMARVA CONTS TO INCH AWAY FM THE CST. NO PROBS FM THIS FEATURE. 00Z TEMPS ARND FWC VALUES XCPT ALG GRND STRND WHERE THEY/RE WARMER THAN GUID. MAY WANT TO RAISE BCH TEMPS THERE. WHILE MOST AREAS OF SRN CSTL PLN MAY INDEED STOP AT MID 40S...CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS COULD GO LOWER & 40-45 LOOKS BETTER THERE THAN SRN CSTL AREA (WHICH IS ALSO WHERE HIER DEWPTS EXIST - LBT ASOS LOOKS TOO HI). CWF: W OR SW WINDS DOMINANT ATTM. LGT SPDS W/IN 20 NM SO WL DROP TO 10-15. LATEST RUC GOES NW BY 09Z SO AVG DIR REMAINS W & WL KEEP. W/ OFFSHR FLOW WL ALSO DROP SEAS SLGTLY. .ILM...NONE. LGE NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 851 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT ACROSS THE OH VLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WAS VERY SHALLOW WITH NO RAINFALL OCCURRING. WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS FA TONIGHT. ALSO... 00Z RUC AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLEARING WILL MAKE IT INTO DAY AND NRN MIAMI VALLEY AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WL ADD THAT MENTION AND ADJUST SKY WORDING FOR MON. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. .ILN...NONE. WILKINSON NNNN oh STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 920 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 IR IMAGRY INDICATES AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE AREA AS A WEAK SHRT WV APCHS THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INC AS SHRTWV GETS CLOSER. BELIEVE SPRINKLES WILL BE CONFINED TO CAE/AGS/OGB AND PIEDMONT. RUC SHOWS AIR STILL VERY DRY OVR MOST OF CWA. PROBABLY PLENTY OF VIRGA AROUND TOMORROW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING JUST SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES. MINOR TWEAK TO AGS AND PIEDMONT LOWS AS FWC HAS TENDED TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE OBSERVED LOW TEMPS. PUT IN ILM SUGGESTION FOR MYR ZONE AS WELL AS RANGE FOR FLO. WRKZFP/ZONCOR IN 15 MINUTES. .CAE...NONE. JDB NNNN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 835 PM CST SUN MAR 28 1999 LIGHT RAIN REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUES AND GETS VERY PATCHY AS IT ATTEMPS TO EXTEND EASTWARD. ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BEHIND THE POWER CURVE ON THE RAIN. ETA DID NOT EVEN BRING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST RUC IS NO BETTER. POSSIBLE CURE HERE IS TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD OR POSSIBLY USE THE TERM "CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION". FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE OK WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. DICKSON AWOS TEMP SEEMS A LITTLE LOW. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. MEMBNAZFP TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. JLM NNNN tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 810 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 THIS EVENING/S IR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED ANTICYCLONIC ARCHING CLOUDS FROM OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...TO OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE EAST HALF OF THIS CLOUD BAND WAS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS. WESTWARD...LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAD OCCURRED AS CLOSE AS WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z. THE 28/21Z RUC AND EARLIER MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS MOISTURE FEATURE (AND PERHAPS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF SYSTEM) WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND INCREASE IN SPEED A LITTLE MONDAY MORNING. SO...WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE FIRST PERIOD. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SOMEWHAT LOWER IN EASTERN TENNESSEE RELATIVE TO NGM AND LAMP MOS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED AT PAH...WILL KEEP MINS AS THEY ARE. FOR THE SECOND PERIOD...ACCORDING TO THE 28/18Z ETA...LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR IF THE FRONT CAN HOLD TOGETHER. DM NNNN tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 947 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 AMENDED...TO CHANGE PLACEMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES... 00Z SFC/MSAS ANALYSIS PLACES PESKY SFC LOW 250 MILES EAST OF DELMARVA MOVING ESEWD. ALSO INDC IS A RELAXATION IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS ERN SXNS OF THE CWA. MSAS DEWPT ANALYSIS INDC STG GRADIENT IN DEWPTS FM LOW 40S ALG THE CST TO AROUND 20 INVOF RNK/LYH. SATL IMGRY INDC BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD EXTDS FM FLUVANNA CO SEWD TO NR EMPORIA...EDGING EWD VERY SLOWLY. 00Z RUC INDC CLD SHIELD SHUD CLEAR MOST OF THE FA BY 06Z WI EXCPTN OF THE DELMARVA. GIVEN LOW DEWPTS...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WRN SXNS OF THE CWA...TEMPS HV TAKEN A TUMBLE OF SORTS WI FVX REPORTING 44F. GIVEN THIS WILL SHAVE OFF A CAT/TWO OFF MINS FM EARLIER FCST VALUES TONIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS A CAT IN THE RIC METRO AREA. ELSW MINS IN LINE WI PREVIOUS FCST. MON LOOKS TO BE THE WARMER OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT IN COOLING 85H TEMPS AND LOWERING HGHTS AS SHRTWV CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC NWLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON MON APPEAR TO TURN MORE TO THE N ON TUE. AREAS NR THE BAY...IE ORF MAY SEE MAXES ABT 8-10 DEG BLW 12Z GUID VALUES. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE 4TH PD AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS. CWF: AM LEANING TOWARD DROPPING SMALL CRAFT FOR CAROLINA WATERS AS WAVES LESS THAN 5 FT AT DUCK PIER AND CHES LIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS NRN WATERS ABIT LONGER. DELAWARE BUOY STILL WITH 8 FT WAVES...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. RIC 37/70 00 SBY 39/64 10 ORF 41/67 00 ECG 42/69 00 38 .AKQ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS...CSTL WTRS FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISL. HDC EFFECTIVE WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE ON MONDAY MARCH 29TH...THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORFOLK...RICHMOND...SALISBURY...AND ELIZABETH CITY WILL NO LONGER BE INCLUDED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE AWIPS/AFOS HEADER OF WBCCCFAKQ AND WMO HEADER FPUS41 KAKQ. NNNN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 900 PM EST SUN MAR 28 1999 00Z SFC/MSAS ANALYSIS PLACES PESKY SFC LOW 250 MILES EAST OF DELMARVA MOVING ESEWD. ALSO INDC IS A RELAXATION IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS ERN SXNS OF THE CWA. MSAS DEWPT ANALYSIS INDC STG GRADIENT IN DEWPTS FM LOW 40S ALG THE CST TO AROUND 20 INVOF RNK/LYH. SATL IMGRY INDC BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD EXTDS FM FLUVANNA CO SEWD TO NR EMPORIA...EDGING EWD VERY SLOWLY. 00Z RUC INDC CLD SHIELD SHUD CLEAR MOST OF THE FA BY 06Z WI EXCPTN OF THE DELMARVA. GIVEN LOW DEWPTS...CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WRN SXNS OF THE CWA...TEMPS HV TAKEN A TUMBLE OF SORTS WI FVX REPORTING 44F. GIVEN THIS WILL SHAVE OFF A CAT/TWO OFF MINS FM EARLIER FCST VALUES TONIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS A CAT IN THE RIC METRO AREA. ELSW MINS IN LINE WI PREVIOUS FCST. MON LOOKS TO BE THE WARMER OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT IN COOLING 85H TEMPS AND LOWERING HGHTS AS SHRTWV CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC NWLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON MON APPEAR TO TURN MORE TO THE N ON TUE. AREAS NR THE BAY...IE ORF MAY SEE MAXES ABT 8-10 DEG BLW 12Z GUID VALUES. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE 4TH PD AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS. CWF: AM LEANING TOWARD DROPPING SMALL CRAFT FOR CAROLINA WATERS AS WAVES LESS THAN 5 FT AT DUCK PIER AND CHES LIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS NRN WATERS ABIT LONGER. DELAWARE BUOY STILL WITH 8 FT WAVES...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. RIC 37/70 00 SBY 39/64 10 ORF 41/67 00 ECG 42/69 00 38 .AKQ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS...CSTL WTRS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER. HDC EFFECTIVE WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE ON MONDAY MARCH 29TH...THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORFOLK...RICHMOND...SALISBURY...AND ELIZABETH CITY WILL NO LONGER BE INCLUDED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE AWIPS/AFOS HEADER OF WBCCCFAKQ AND WMO HEADER FPUS41 KAKQ. NNNN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 450 AM EST MON MAR 29 1999 LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS 999MB LO MOVG TOWARD JAMES BAY AS VIGOROUS SHRTWV CONTS LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO PER SAT LOOPS. SFC WNDS THIS PAST EVNG GUSTED TO ADVY LVL OVR NW HALF OF CWA IN SHARP GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LO AND HI PRES NOW OVR NCNTRL PLAINS AS ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET AND WLY H925 50 KT LLJ AS DEPICTED ON RUC ANALS PROPAGATED ACRS FA. LO STABILITY BLO H8 PER 0Z GRB SDNG AND DECENT CAD ENHANCED MIXING OF STRG MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. HOWEVER...LATEST MSAS PRES RISE/SFC OBS AND RUC ANAL/FCSTS SHOW ISALLOBARIC MAX AND HIEST WNDS HAVE PASSED TO E AND WEAKENED. SO ALLOWED HI WND ADVY TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. 00Z H3 RAOBS SHOW 125 KT JET MAX OVR SD IN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LO STABILITY PER 00Z BIS SDNG (TT 53...LI -2). ISOLD SHRA THAT DVLPD DURG DAY HAVE SINCE DSPTD...BUT COMPOSITE 88DS TO THE W SHOW LINGERING RETURNS WITH SCT-BKN CLD MOVG EWD IN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIER SFC DWPT/SUBTLE WSHFT IN NW MN. SHRA LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY LACK OF MSTR UPSTREAM WITH 00Z PW/K INDEX AT BIS A PALTRY 0.13 INCH/7. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY WL BE INFLUENCE OF APRCHG JET MAX AND AREA OF INSTABILITY NOW IN MN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVG JET MAX AND HI INSTABILITY DEFINED BY TT NR 55 EWD THRU CWA TDAY AND REACHING THE E BY THIS AFTN. AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF THE JET MOVES EWD...MID LVL QVECTOR DVGC PROGGED TO INCRS W TO E. FCST SDNGS SHOW A DRYING TREND/DCRSG TT WITH INCRSD SUBSIDENCE BY LATE MRNG OVR THE SW AND BY LATE IN THE AFTN OVR THE KEWEENAW AND CNTRL ZNS. BELIEVE LO OBSVD PW WL SUPPRESS PCPN FM MAINLY HI BASED CU/SC. BUT WL MAINTAIN SCT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY ECHOES STILL OBSVD UPSTREAM. MAX TEMPS ON SUN TO W INDICATE MOS TEMPS FOR TDAY IN THE BALL PARK...SO WL RAISE GOING HI TEMPS A TAD. MODELS ALL SHOW HI PRES BLDG TO S TNGT BUT DIFFER ON DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN IN DVLPG SWLY FLOW LATER ON. NGM DRIEST AND ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MSTR BACK AND WOULD SUG SKIES BCMG MCLDY LATE ACRS SW WITH SHARP ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ON FCST I290. FEEL MODEL TREND OF NOT PENETRATING THIS CURRENT SHOT OF COLD AIR NOT AS FAR TO THE S FAVORS THE ETA...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS PER 00Z PW/H85 DWPT ANAL WOULD INDICATE DRIER NGM AND LESS CLD COVER. WL GO WITH COMPROMISE AVN SOLN AS THIS MODEL SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT NOT AS MUCH INCRSD RH AS ETA. SO CLR TO PCLDY LATE OVR THE SW. WL NUDGE UP GOING/FWC TEMPS TOWARD FAN NUMBERS TO REFLECT SOMEWHAT QUICKER RETURN OF WARMTH/MSTR. MODELS SHOW SFC HI PRES SLIDING EWD ON TUE TO MID ATLANTIC. INCRSG SWLY BTWN HI AND LO EMERGING E OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN INCRSD THKNS AND MSTR ADVCTN INTO CWA WITH WARM FRONTOGEN NRLY OVHD. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW INCRSD DIFFERENTIAL DVGC OVR MAINLY WRN PORTION OF FA IN RR QUAD OF JET MAX OVR ONTARIO AND DVLPMNT OF 45-50 KT H85 LLJ INCRSG ABSOLUTE MSTR... TIME SECTIONS INDICATE RH TO REMAIN LO. PROGGED ETA SDNGS SHOW MID LVL INVRN TO CAP ANY LO LVL INSTABILITY (ETA FCST LI NR 0 OVR THE FAR W). WENT NR MOS FOR MAX TEMPS WITH COOLER READINGS OVR KEWEENAW AND ECNTRL DOWNWIND OF LK MI...LOCATIONS THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ON COOL SIDE OF DVLPG WARM FNT. .MQT...NONE. KC NNNN mi COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 AM CST MON MAR 29 1999 DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES THE MEANDERING MID-UPR LEVEL VORTEX PUSHING OFF THE S TX COASTLINE..NEAR PORT MANSFIELD. PREFER THE AVN GUIDANCE IN THE FCST POSNG OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH MAINTAINS A CUTOFF NATURE WITH A GRADUAL EROSION AND NEWD LIFT AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE CNTRL U.S. 850MB TEMPS WL WARM IN RESPONSE AND RANGE BETWEEN 16C TO 20C BY MID-LATE WEEK RESULTING IN ABV NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S. SHORT-TERM RUC DATA APPEARS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN SOLN WHICH MAINTAINS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE CYCLE..HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD WL GENERATE A NLY GRADIENT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERING OVR THE ERN FA..AND DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WRN FA. THE AVN SOLN IS COOLER WITH THE TEMP FCST AS COMPARED TO THE MILD NGM..FEEL THAT TEMPS WL WARM AS SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AND WL FCST ABOVE THE AVN..GIVEN THE WEAK SFC FLOW AND LACK OF ANY SIG CAA. KCRP-88D VWP DATA DEPICTS A S-SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL WHICH WL KEEP PCPN POTENTIAL AT A MIN. IN ADDITION..WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS FCST IN THE 290-300K SURFACES AND FEEL THAT PCPN WL BE A VARIABLE HARD TO DEVELOP UNDER THIS PATTERN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN FROM W-E AS THE UPR LOW PUSHES FARTHER AWAY. SC/AC FIELD WL WARRANT MCLDY THIS MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS DVLPG ACROSS THE CWA AS GROUND MOISTURE FROM SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNINGS RAIN EVENT BEGINS TO SATURATE THE NEAR SFC LAYER. FEEL THAT AREAS OF FOG WL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND WL WORD SUCH IN THE UPCOMING PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW EVOLVES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS STATES. MRF MOS PAINTS A CLOUDIER PICTURE FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME..HOWEVER SFC AND UPR FEATURES SUGGEST PCLDY AND WARM. THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT... CRP BB 076/057 077/058 080 000 NGP 075/060 077/061 078 VCT EB 074/055 075/058 079 -00 LRD BB 078/059 080/061 083 000 BML.76 / JMC.84 .CRP...NONE. NNNN tx SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 917 AM MST MON MAR 29 1999 SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW A STRONG AND COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TO DROP INTO ARIZONA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF WIND AND CLOUDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DISCUSSION...KEEPING AN EYE ON TEMPS TODAY. NO 12Z TUS SOUNDING DUE TO CONTINUING SOFTWARE PROBLEMS BUT GOES-10 DERIVED SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RUC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S IN TUS TODAY AND 90 JUST TO THE WEST. HOWEVER TEMPS ARE RUNNING LOCK-STEP WITH YESTERDAY'S RISE RATE AND LACK OF WIND TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MIXING. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND UPDATE IF NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. WATCHING VISIBLE PICS I'M NOT SURE THE HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN TOMORROW WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. THEY LOOK AWFULLY THIN AT THE MOMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW NGM IS STARTING TO DROP OUR THICKNESSES TOMORROW WHICH IF TRUE WOULD HOLD HEATING IN CHECK. TOOK A LONG HARD LOOK AT EXTENDED MODELS AND I'M BECOMING MORE CONVINCED THAT THE NOGAPS HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MRF STILL TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE SW. IT UNDERFORECAST THE JET STREAK NEAR 55N/145W A FULL 20KTS ACCORDING TO GOES-10 HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ACARS DATA. EVEN IF YOU BUY THE MRF IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE COLD CORE ALOFT LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT'S ALL WE NEED FOR OUR INCREASING FIRE DANGER -- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. AT LEAST THE NEW NGM BRINGS IN THE STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY INSTEAD OF THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TUS 000. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE. NNNN az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST MON MAR 29 1999 VIS LOOP SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS INCREASING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY THIN.. BUT WILL CHANGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT PROGGED BY 03Z ETA AND 12Z RUC TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS UP FAIRLY WELL. READINGS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE FWC 3-HOURLY GUIDANCE AND ABOVE 11Z LAMP OUTPUT. CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA... AND MODELS INDICATE A 10-12 DEGREE RISE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM HOURS. WILL RAISE TEMP FORECASTS FOR THE AFTERNOON ONE CATEGORY.. WITH 70-75 IN THE SOUTH AND AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 20 KT WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z.. AND SCA WILL BE CONTINUED FOR MARINE ZONES. .LWX...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. MARGRAF! NNNN md STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1010 AM PM EST MON MAR 29 1999 HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS SRN LOWER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WI. ETA RUN FROM 03Z TAKES WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAOBS FROM 12Z FROM APX/DTX SHOW VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES QUITE STEEP AND CU SCHEME FROM 03Z ETA/12Z RUC SUGGEST SOME CU POTENTIAL...DOUBT THE CU WILL BE MORE THAN SCT THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EAST WILL LIKELY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS FORECAST GIVEN STRONG LOWER LEVEL WIND PROFILES, THUS WILL LEAVE WIND FORECAST AS IS. HIGH TEMPS FROM MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD AS WELL BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZFP WIBIS ASAP. JW NNNN mi MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1030 AM CST MON MAR 29 1999 HAVE UPDATED S CENTRAL ZONES FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TRENDS PLUS LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA. ONLY OTHER QUESTION IS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT...AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED...WILL LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR NOW. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT NNNN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 936 AM MST TUE MAR 29 1999 LATEST RUC INDICATES WINDS WILL GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA UPPER YELLOWSTONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TAPER OFF BY THE EVENING. WILL BE UPDATING THAT ZONE FOR JUST BELOW CRITERIA BUT WILL WATCH THINGS CLOSELY. REMAINDER OF ZONES LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY CONCERNS ABOUT THIRD PERIOD. LOCATION OF WEAK FRONT TOMORROW MORNING WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MT. BORSUM. BIL BE 058/034 056/030 048 59002 LVM .. 053/029 050/... ... 59014 HDN .. 060/032 058/... ... 59002 MLS .. 061/029 061/030 ... 59001 4BQ .. 059/027 060/... ... 59001 BHK .. 057/023 059/... ... 59000 SHR BE 058/030 057/028 050 59002 NNNN mt FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1025 AM CST MON MAR 29 1999 CONCERN THIS AFTN...SHOWER POSSIBILITY UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT AND HIGH TEMPS. 50H UPPER AIR AT 12Z SHOWS -35 TO -37C POCKET OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN. 12Z RUC SHOWS SOME WARMING DURING THE DAY WITH THE -35 POCKET MOVING OVER NE MN. LIKE YESTERDAY FEEL AREA WILL START SEEING SOME CU. WITH COLD POCKET....SOME ISOLD SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY IN NW MN WITH RUC SHOWS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OF AROUND ZERO FROM BDE TO BJI EAST. WITH 12Z ETA/NGM SHOWING SOME WK PVA IN THAT AREA THIS AFTN WILL ADD ISOLD SHOWERS TO THAT PART OF NRN MN. FOR REST OF AREA...THINK MSTLY SUNNY WILL WORK IN MOST AREAS DESPITE AREAS OF AC. 85H TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH TODAY AS AREA IN MOSTLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION. MAY TONE DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES NE ND AND GO MORE IN THE LINE OF 45 TO 50. O/W RUC 2M TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 50S SOUTH PART OF CWFA. UPDATE OUT AROUND 1045 AM. .FGF...NONE RIDDLE NNNN nd STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 1004 AM EST MON MAR 29 1999 DISC: 13Z ANLYSIS SHOWS WK HI PRES OFF THE SE CST AND ACRS T E CNTRL PLNS. SATELLITE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVR MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE GRAND STRAND. AREA 88DS AND REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. BUT AIRMASS OVR THE STATE IS STILL FARILY DRY WITH TDS IN THE 30S AND 40S. MUCH OF THE RAIN IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. 00Z RUN OF MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL... MORNING RUC MAYBE A BIT BETTER. TOOK A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z NGM...IT DOES PICK UP ON THE MOISTURE. MODELS DID SHOW A WK S/W MOVG ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY. SO WILL LEAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE N AND THE LEAST ACRS THE S. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...ALREADY NOT THAT FAR AWAY FM AFT MAXES AND MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH LATER TDA. THANKS FOR INPUT ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS SEND AWAY! .CAE...NONE. LCV NNNN sc