AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 LATEST SURFACE CHARTS INDICATING CLEARING REALLY GETTING GOING ACROSS IOWA...AND CLOUDS OVER CWA BEGINNING TO BREAK UP QUITE NICELY. THIS SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA. FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS ALSO ANTI-CYCLONIC. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING VERY MUCH EVEN WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. AT UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY VERY QUICKLY...WITH GOOD FALLS AHEAD OF IT AND A 150KT JET PULLING OUT OF THE EAST SIDE OF IT. PROBLEMS TODAY INCLUDE A POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT...WITH THE CONDITIONS THAT GO ALONG WITH THAT... AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...AND THE MAIN FEATURES AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AS USUAL...NONE OF THE MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE RH LEVELS. THE RUC AND NGM ARE VERIFYING WELL IN DRYING OUT MOST OF IA TODAY...AS SHOWN IN THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...THE NGM HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM LATELY...AND PREFER FAN TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT THE DILEMMA IS HOW COLD. THOUGH WE WILL CLEAR OUT MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...THERE MAY BE SOME MORE CLOUDS IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA THAN THE REST OF THE CWA. THE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHERN MO...WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL IA TO DIRECTLY OVER CWA AT 12Z. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHTEST OVER SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF 75+ HIGH TEMPS OVER CWA HAVE REALLY RAISED GROUND TEMPS AND RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE A NEAR THING. LIKE CURRENT WORDING FOR SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP THIS. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS. SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WITH STILL DRY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD REALLY HELP WARM-UP. THINK FWC GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...BUT FAN TEMPS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...AND ARE IN LINE WITH WHAT NEBRASKA IS GETTING FOR TEMPS TODAY. WITH ANOTHER DAYS MODIFICATION AND THE WARM GROUND WE HAVE LOW TO MID 60S IS NOT UNREASONABLE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CURRENT ZONES. SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON A LITTLE LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET MORE THAN CLOUDS OUT OF IT. WILL PUT IN MORE CLOUDS SOUTHERN HALF TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY IS INTERESTING...IT IS BACK INTO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THOSE FRUSTRATING DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE. ITS PROBABLY TOO SOON TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME... BUT WILL PUT IN AN EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIP. WARM-UP CONTINUES...AND WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH FWC TEMPS JUST MIGHT MATERIALIZE...BUT HAVE TO ADMIT BEING SKEPTICAL AND WILL GO WITH A FAN/FWC BLEND. EXTENDED...TUE-THU. DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH BEST DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH AM NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LIKELY WORDING IN. WILL GO BACK TO A CHANCE. WITH THE LARGE LOW THAT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN WED AND THU ALSO. GRADUAL WARM-UP IN FMR TEMPS CONTINUES THAT IN THE FAN TEMPS SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. LRE il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 930 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 QUICKER MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM LAST NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER SATURDAY THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED YESTERDAY. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF A LFK...SHV...ELD LINE AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH CWA BY LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN. 1027MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR GAGE OK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TO WHERE CAUTION CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET ON AREA LAKES. TEMPS CLOSELY MATCH CURRENT FCSTD VALUES WITH EVEN THE RUC ON THE SAME PAGE SO WILL LIMIT THIS UPDATE TO WORDING ISSUES AND DROP POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATE OUT BY 1100 AM...13 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1005 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000 WK BKDOOR BNDRY RUNS FM N OF NHK TO DCA TO FDK AT 14Z. 06Z ETA AND RUC MV THIS BNDY N OF THE AREA DURING THE AFT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW FLO AHD OF THE CDFNT. OVRNGT CONVECTION MANAGED TO CLIP FAR WRN ALLEGANY CO MD THIS MRNG WITH A REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL FM FROSTBURG. HWVR...THAT CNVCTN HAS WEAKENED AND HAS MVD INTO PA. THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BNDRY TRAILING SWD INTO WV WL MV E DURING THE AFTRN. LAPS AND MAPS DATA INDICATES ATMS IS VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE BKDOOR FNT WITH MORE STABLE AIR ACRS THE NE ZNS N OF THE BNDRY. AS THE BKDOOR FNT MVS BACK TO THE N THIS AFTRN...THE NE ZNS SHUD DESTABILIZE. 06Z ETA IS FCSTG CAPES OF 2000...LIS -6 TO -10...DWPTS IN THE 70S...AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTRN OVR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDTN...PCP WATER IS WELL OVR 1 INCH. CAP IN PLACE THIS MRNG SHUD BREAK THIS AFTRN AS WE HEAT UP. THE APPROACH OF THE CDFNT WL RESULT IN CNVCTN. CNVCTN WL EITHER FIRE JUST AHD OF THE CDFNT OR ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY HEADING EWD. IN ADDTN...SOME CNVCTN MAY FIRE WELL AHD OF THESE 2 BNDRYS ALG THE WMFNT OVR THE NE ZNS BY MID AFTRN. BIGGEST THREAT FM CNVCTN WL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE 2ND BIGGEST THREAT. LACK OF ANY GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHUD CUT DOWN ON THE TORNADO THREAT. CURRENT ZNS HANDLE SVR THREAT FINE. WL KEEP THE 50 POPS IN THE CHO AREA BUT BUMP POPS UP TO 60 ELSEWHERE. 12Z IAD SOUNDING FCSTG MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S S OF THE BKDOOR FNT. THINK DVLPMT OF CLDS WL KEEP US FM REACHING TEMPS THAT HI BUT WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE LWR 90S E OF THE MTNS. EXCEPTION TO THIS WL BE THE BWI AREA WHERE WE WL GO UPR 80S DUE TO PRESENCE OF BKDOOR FNT. WND FCST FOR TNGT REQUIRES THE USE OF "BREEZY" SO INSERTED THAT INTO LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS TO 2ND OR 3RD PD. ZNS BY 1030AM. SPS CONCERNING SVR WX THREAT BY 1100AM. .LWX...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1025 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP SHOW NR STNRY VIGOROUS UPR LO JUST SW OF JAMES BAY. GRT LKS IN COOL...FAIRLY MOIST CYC FLOW SW OF VORTEX. SAT PIX/ SFC OBS SHOW LOTS OF LO/MID CLD ARND...AND 88D LOOP INDICATES SCT -SHRA OVR ENTIRE CWA. ALTHOUGH SOLAR HTG PROBABLY ENHANCED SHRA DVLPMNT...CONVECTIVE DEPTH/PCPN INTENSITY IN GENERAL LIMITED BY SHARP INVRN ARND H78 AS DEPICTED ON 00Z GRB SDNG. CRITICAL -15C ISOTHERM ABV INVRN HGT AND LLVL MSTR. BUT SPOTTER AT NORWAY NR IMT RPRTD GRAUPEL IN ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHRA. FAIRLY SUBTLE SHRTWV EVIDENT ON WV LOOP AND LATEST RUC ANAL MOVG INTO NRN MN. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE COLD POCKET AT H7 NR INL...AND 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS MID LVL INVRN MUCH WEAKER AND HIER WITH H7 TEMP -15C THERE. SFC WNDS TENDING TO WEAKEN AS LATEST 3HR PRES TENDENCIES SHOWING SHARP PRES RISES TOWARD LO CENTER E OF CWA...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF PRES GRADIENT. LOCAL 00Z RAOBS ALSO INDICATE WNDS IN SFC BASED MIXED LYR GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KTS. MAIN FCST CONCERN TNGT IS PCPN POTENTIAL/TYPE AHD OF MN SHRTWV AND MIN TEMPS. LATEST RUC FCST CONFIRMS EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWING MN SHRTWV SLOWING MOVG INTO CWA OVRNGT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED MID LVL QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND BALANCED BY GENERAL CAD...SUSPECT CYC FLOW...DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING MORE RAPID COOLING AT H7 THAN SFC-H85 AND DEEPER MSTR UPWIND AT INL WL ALLOW FOR CONTD SCT SHRA DESPITE LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. SFC DWPTS UPWIND GENERALLY ARND 33. SINCE CONSIDERABLE CLD WL LINGER AND CONTD CAD SHUD ALLOW MIXING AND A STEADY WNWLY WND...FEEL 33-35 IS AS LO AS TEMP WL GO OVR HIER TERRAIN. WL MENTION MIX WITH SN MAINLY OVR HIER TERRAIN GIVEN NRLY ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATE. BUT EVEN SOME LWR TERRAIN COULD SEE SN IN THE HEAVIER PCPN. .MQT...NONE. KC THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED. PLEASE COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT/FORECASTS/AFD_SURVEY.HTM (USE LOWER CASE) YOUR COMMENTS AND OPINIONS WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS PLEASE CONTACT ED FENELON AT (906) 475-5782 EXT 766 FOR A PAPER COPY OF THE SURVEY. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION! mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 00Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS HOWEVER. .DLH...FREEZE ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT MNZ010>012-018-019-026. FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT MNZ025-033>036. GSF mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 805 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 AFTERNOON FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR WORDING. FROST ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL IF WIND STAYS UP IN WRN ZONES BUT LATEST RUC MODEL GENERALLY FORECASTS SURFACE WINDS OF 5 KNOTS. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 915 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000 EXPECT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE RUC SHOWS A WEAKENING H95 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PATTERN MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. PLAN TO KEEP POPS IN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AROUND 200 AM BASED ON RUC. RADAR HAS SHOWN WEAKENING AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. FCSTID = 5 CAE 67 85 56 81 / 10 0 0 0 AGS 63 86 52 82 / 30 0 0 0 SSC 66 83 55 81 / 10 0 0 0 OGB 67 85 56 82 / 10 0 0 0 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 850 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIDING SE ACROSS STATE WITH WK WAA AND WK THETA-E RIDGING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT...THIS IS ENOUGH TO SET OFF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WRN SD. FEW ECHOS IN FAR WRN CWA...BUT FEEL THAT MOST OF THIS IS ALOFT. RUC AND MESO-ETA HAVE THIS CLOUD SHIELD PEGGED...AND DWPTS FOR FAR WRN CWA ARE FCSTD TO STAY 35 TO 40 OVERNIGHT. THEY ALSO SHOW DWPTS FOR ERN CWA TO REMAIN IN MID 30S THROUGH NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT FROST IS MORE UNLIKELY THAN LIKELY. HOWEVER...CURRENT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER THAN FCSTD MESO-ETA AND RUC TEMPS FOR THIS TIME...AND NEITHER MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE FIRM GRIP ON VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH DWPTS IN THE 20S ACROSS SERN MT AND ND. WILL JUST CLEAN UP SKY AND WIND WORDING IN ZONES...BUT LET EVERYTHING ELSE RIDE. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...FROST ADVRY ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 900 AM MDT SAT MAY 13 2000 THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED. 12Z OBSERVED DATA AND RUC PROGNOSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOME INSTABILITY (LI'S 0 TO -1 AND CAPE 100 TO 250 J/KG) IS PROGGED OVER NWRN THROUGH CNTRL SD...SO CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS THERE. .UNR...NONE. BUNKERS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1016 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 NEW ETA/NGM SUGGEST THAT ANY DECENT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS..AND MAYBE UP IN EDDY COUNTY. HAVE LIGHTENED UP ON THE LOW CLOUD WORDING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE SHORT/WV THAT RUC/ETA WERE BRINGING ACROSS THE BIG BEND WILL NOT BE A PLAYER TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD AND PULLED POPS THERE AS WELL. .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. 44 tx SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 815 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 DRIER AIRMASS LAGGING BEHIND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF SHWRS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE IN BRAZORIA COUNTY THIS EVE. 00Z LCH AND CRP SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUING A MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER... SOUNDINGS LIKELY ONLY REPRESENTATIVE FOR LOWER COASTAL/S SECTIONS OF CWA. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT FOR THIS AREA. AFT EXAMINING RUC OUTPUT...BELIEVE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THEREFORE...FA SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PD OF LOWER RH. EASTERLY FLOW TOMORROW AFT WILL LEAD TO RISING DW PTS FOR COASTAL AND CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF SLIGHT CHC IS NEEDED TOMORROW FOR COAST/CEN ZONES WITH 00Z MODEL RUN. LOW TEMPS ACROSS CEN ZONES ARE TRICKY GIVEN DW PT GRADIENT. WILL TWEAK ZONE CONFIGURATION TO LOWER NW TEMPS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT RANGE OF 60 TO 65 BEST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ZONE. EXPECT PC SKY COND ACROSS CEN AND S ZONES...M CLEAR ACROSS N/NW ZONES TONIGHT. 33/36 .KHGX...NONE. PRELIMS... CLL BB 059/083 063/084 065 010 IAH BB 063/084 063/086 067 020 GLS BB 068/080 072/082 072 020 (NE ZONES POPS 000) (S ZONES POPS 120) tx SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO WINDS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2000 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. FEW LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING. 850MB FRONT AND 700MB TROUGH STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY THIS TIME. LATEST RUC SHOWS TEMPS AT 4 PM NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW 80S IN THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE TEMPS ARE NOT ENOUGH THE BREAK THE CAP AND NO SUFFICIENT PVA EXPECTED IN THE AREA TO HELP WITH DESTABILIZATION. ISENTROPIC LIFTING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GENERATE A BIT OF RAIN. SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST. WINDS TOO LOW. .EWX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES MOST OF HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN 2/3 SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS 06/08/DC tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 324 AM MDT SUN MAY 14 2000 UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AZ/NM TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVER WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND EASTERNMOST ZONES MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE DIRTIED BY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECTED PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE WE STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF FWC AND FAN NUMBERS USED FOR THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS FOR THE WIND...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 25 TO 35 MPH PER LATEST RUC2 PACKAGE. WINDS SHOULD BLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE. IT SHOULD BECOME WINDY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED MIX-DOWN OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. TUESDAY SHOULD BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY AREAWIDE AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AS WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN BREEZY FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. COOLER AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. STILL DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS UP HIGH AND UP NORTH WEDNESDAY. ABQ BB 084/056 090/058 091 38000 SAF BB 079/046 086/047 087 38000 TCC BB 084/057 091/061 093 380-0 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 155 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF THE AREA AT 06Z...WITH ONLY REMAINING MOISTURE AT HIGH LEVELS. RUC AND MESO ETA BRING BACK EDGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO BECOMING SUNNY SHOULD SUFFICE MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE ERN TROF PASS OVHD ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT LOBES OF HIGHER RH...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MON. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS A BIT TONIGHT BETWEEN INVADING HIGH PRES AND DEVELOPING SE COASTAL LOW. THIS MAY KEEP WINDS UP A BIT TONIGHT. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT DE-COUPLING WILL OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH. WILL HEDGE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS MINS AND KEEP 10 MPH WINDS TONIGHT. MOS MAXES LOOK VERY REASONABLE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TODAY. A LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW WITH LOWER BL TO 850 MB TEMPS. AVL 73/45/70 000 CLT 79/51/75 000 GSP 80/50/75 000 .GSP...NONE. HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT JUST E-SE OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. WL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE SLGT CHC OF RAIN FROM EAST SECTIONS. RUC SHOWS LAST VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER SC WITH DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN LATER THIS AFTN. VSBL SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A TAD AND WITH DEW POINTS SLOW TO DROP...MIN RHS AND DISPERSION INDICES NOT GOING TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTN. MIN RHS WILL BE QUITE LOWER MONDAY PROMPTING A WATCH FOR FORE WEATHER. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLORIDA COUNTIES. MME fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 917 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000 ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE PIX AND SURFACE OBS INDICATES A BROAD...WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CWA. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LAGS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECASTS. EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT IN FRONTAL ZONE... THEREFORE AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH... IT MAY STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MORNING SKEW-T GIVES A CAPE OF 3100 J/KG & A -8.5 LI... RUC KEEPS US IN THE 2000-3500 RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY... WILL MONITOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. .JAX... .GA...NONE .FL...NONE JOHNSON fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1112 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000 14Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY. VISIBLE LOOPS SHOW CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ONCE AGAIN...FILLING IN CLEAR AREAS OVER NORTHERN LOWER. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UVV FIELD WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM...AND DRYING/ SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN WI. 12Z APX SOUNDING NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 700MB AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO 30 KTS 900-700MB STILL LOOKS TO BE A GUSTY DAY...TREND ALREADY EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBS. ANTECEDENT LAPSE RATES ALREADY MOIST ADIABATIC...AND JUST A LITTLE HEATING WILL SUPPORT CU/SHOWERS. MODIFIED SUFACE ONLY FOR 48/34 YIELDS CAPE 240 J/KG. GRB SOUNDING NOT AS MOIST BUT STILL SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOB 6C THROUGH 700MB. MODIFIED SURFACE ONLY FOR 52/32 GIVES CAPE AROUND 85 J/KG...WEAK INVERSION AT 700MB SERVING AS A CAP. CAPE DOES INCREASE TO NEAR 170 J/KG WITH A DEW POINT OF 36. DTX SOUNDING WAS STRONGLY CAPPED AT 810MB...BUT WELL MIXED BELOW. EVEN MIXING THROUGH INVERSION WITH A PARCEL OF 56/36 STILL DOES NOT YIELD ANY INSTABILITY. 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL TROF OVER MN ARROWHEAD/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOB 4C. 700/500MB COLD POCKETS RIGHT OVER THE UPPER LAKES REGION (-14C/ -28C RESPECTIVELY)...MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER FOR TODAY. 300MB SPEED MAX PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AREA TO BE UNDER LRQ TODAY. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AIDED BY WESTERLY UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER INTERIOR TERRAIN. MESOETA AND RUC MODEL FORCING FIELDS ARE GENERALLY DOWNWARD WITH AREA UNDER UNFAVORABLE JET QUADRANT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE MID LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION. BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND AND CHANGES WILL BE MOSTLY TO FRESHEN WORDING. CONTINUED TO MENTION HIGHER POPS AND POSSIBILITY SLEET ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE INSTABILITY A LITTLE DEEPER WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION...ALREADY HAD RAIN/SNOW/SLEET HERE AT APX EARLIER THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION OUT OF CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE MORE CAPPING IN PLACE (PER DTX SOUNDING). FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1530Z. .APX...NONE. JPB *** THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD). PLEASE COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM. THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE SURVEY...CONTACT BRUCE SMITH AT (517) 731-3384 EXT 766. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION. *** mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1045 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2000 MINOR ZONE UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO CLEAN UP THE WIND FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXPECTED. AREA OF MIDDLE CLOUDS OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EROSION/BREAKS ON LEADING EDGE AND RUC/ETA 310K DATA SHOWS A SLIGHT DRYING OF THAT LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. .SGF...NONE. SUTTON mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING CIRRUS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING TO THE EAST. 06Z ETA AND 12Z RUC MOVE THE CIRRUS OFF TO THE EAST AND THIN IT OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD. ZONES CAN BE UPDATED TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS SEEN DEVELOPING OVER SW VA. MODELS SHOW ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS TO NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU POPPING UP BY MIDDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY THERE AS WELL. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BASICALLY IN LINE WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AND THICKNESS SCHEME. THE ONLY PROBLEM MIGHT BE IN THE MTNS WHERE NEW LAMP GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST RANGE...BUT WILL PROBABLY LEAVE THE 70 TO 75 IN THERE ANYWAY. .GSP...NONE. MOORE sc