FXUS64 KSJT 110753 AAA AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 253 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)... UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN IN RECENT DAYS...AND COULD REACH A SNYDER TO NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CROCKETT COUNTY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE. WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...SHOULD ONLY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STEERING FLOW ALOFT WOULD BRING ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INTO OUR FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE A LOW POP LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NIGHTTIME POP IN THOSE AREAS. SHEAR IS MARGINAL...BUT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. SIMILAR SETUP SATURDAY FAVORS THE DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TX SATURDAY NIGHT. ETA WEAKENS THE CAP SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. IF A WEAK IMPULSE DOES ARRIVE BY THAT TIME...COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO OUR COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. DESPITE DRYLINE MIXING TOWARD OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AGAIN SUNDAY... STRONGER CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS. GOING NEAR PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES...CREEPING UP A DEGREE OR TWO. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)... EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CA REGION AND TRIES TO WORK THE FEATURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. GFS ALSO DEEPENS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND TRIES TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER LATE TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. BY MIDWEEK THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH A WEAKNESS IN OUR REGION. THIS INDICATES WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK OCCURRING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BACKING DOWN A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT PATTERN ALONG WITH WEAKER CAPPING SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST. THUS WILL KEEP A NON-ZERO POP IN THE ISC GRIDS WITHOUT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 91 73 92 72 / 0 10 10 20 SAN ANGELO 93 73 94 73 / 10 10 20 20 JUNCTION 91 71 92 72 / 10 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/19