AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 930 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2003 ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SRN FL AND A WEAK FRONT OVER NRN GA AND OVER CAROLINAS. WITH LITTLE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT AM NOT EXPECTING THE ACTUAL FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA. WINDS ARE WLY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO NW TO N THIS AFTN AS A WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE GA COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL GA AREA. JAX SOUNDING INDICATES PWAT 0.56 INCHES AND W TO NW FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. SOME MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB MAY DEVELOP SOME CU THIS AFTN. SEA BREEZE WILL BRING WINDS BACK TO ELY ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE REQUIRED. MARINE...CWF PACKAGE LOOKS FINE. .JAX... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. ARS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1235 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2003 AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS VFR NEXT 24HRS. RIDGE ACROSS MI/IN MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS MORNING TURNS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BY 20-22Z TO SHIFT WINDS ESE AT ORD/MDW. WINDS GO BACK SSE OVERNIGHT THEN SSW MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS BY END OF THE PERIOD. CMS DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE RIDGE THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A LOCALIZED WIND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A CLASSIC ORGANIZED LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE QUASI ONSHORE FLOW. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BECOME MORE SE. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNTS IN THE 975 TO 900 MB LAYER WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RUC THEATA-E CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH SHOW MIXING AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL REACH 925 MB BY 1 PM AND 850 MB BY 4 PM. WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 8 AND 9 C...LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .CHI...NONE. ROGOWSKI il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 940 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2003 DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE RIDGE THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A LOCALIZED WIND OFF THE LAKE TODAY. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A CLASSIC ORGANIZED LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE QUASI ONSHORE FLOW. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BECOME MORE SE. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNTS IN THE 975 TO 900 MB LAYER WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RUC THEATA-E CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH SHOW MIXING AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL REACH 925 MB BY 1 PM AND 850 MB BY 4 PM. WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 8 AND 9 C...LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .CHI...NONE. ROGOWSKI AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS OTHER THAN A LITTLE FOG AT GYY WITH 5SM WHICH WILL QUICKLY DISIPATE NOTHING ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER NICE SPRING DAY. MODELS SHOW WIND BY AFTERNOON SSE. WITH A E COMPONENT WOULD EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE IN TO MDW-ORD LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN OUT IN EVE AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW. JUST SOME CI LATE AND MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON CU AT RFD. AF il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1044 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND CLDS OVRNGT. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW JUST OFF NRN CA COAST WITH UPR RIDGE DOMINATING CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OVR CNTRL MANITOBA. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WAA MID AND HI CLDS AHD OF THIS SHRTWV CONTINUING TO SPILL OVR RDG INTO UPR MI...BUT WX REMAINS DRY THIS EVNG. AREA 00Z SNDGS REVEAL PROHIBITIVELY DRY AMS (FM SFC TO NR 600 MB) FOR PCPN TO OCCUR...DESPITE RATHER STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OR GREATER AND 50 KT LOW LVL JET NOSING INTO FORECAST AREA FM KMPX. GOING DRY FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. INCREASING SFC PRES GRADIENT/STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVRNGT...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALG LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FROM PRESENT READINGS. CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS OF MID 50S WEST...MID 40S CNTRL AND MID 30S EAST...STILL LOOKS GENLY ON TARGET BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. MAY NEED TO AMEND ERN COUNTIES TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT OTHERWISE REST OF COUNTIES LOOK GOOD. .MQT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY MIZ009>012. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 450 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS RISE MON IN SUMMER LIKE WARMTH...THEN TIMING OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT/TUE AND PCPN COVERAGE. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW JUST OFF W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DOMINATING CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO SCNTRL CANADA WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. CLOSER TO HOME...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME LEADING TO BKN MID CLOUD DECK AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KINL SOUNDINGS KEEPING PCPN LIMITED TO NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. EVEN A FEW ICE PELLETS OBSERVED EARLIER HERE AT THE OFFICE. 12Z RAOBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR OVER DAKOTAS WITH 850MB TEMPS AT KUNR/KABR/KBIS AT +19/+20/+21C RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SFC...20Z TEMPS WERE WELL INTO 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN...A SIGN OF WHAT IS ON THE WAY FOR MON. LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POLAR VORTEX DROPPING TO HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN NRN AND SRN BRANCHES SETTLING FARTHER S TOWARD UPPER LAKES. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES AND SUPPRESSION OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW EJECTING FROM SW. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL INDICATE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE LIKELY SHARP NRN EDGE OF PCPN WILL SET UP MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...CHANGES TO GOING FCST WILL BE MINOR UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. MODELS STILL SHOW 45-60KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS FCST AREA TONIGHT BELOW STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. BEST CONVERGENCE/THETA-E ADV TENDS TO BE FOCUSED N OF UPPER MI NEAR NOSE OF JET...BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON TO GET SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF JET AXIS. DRY LOW-LEVELS PROBABLY MAKE THIS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AND WILL THUS LEAVE GOING DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH. INCREASING SFC PRES GRADIENT/STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH...AND IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ACROSS W AND N...AND ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SUMMERLIKE WARMTH STILL ON TRACK FOR MON. CONSENSUS ON 850MB TEMPS IS AROUND 14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY MID 70S...BUT ITS NOTED THAT MODELS INITIALIZED A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOW ON WARMTH BASED ON 12Z RAOBS OVER DAKOTAS. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY AFTN... SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS OVER WRN PLAINS AND SOLID SW/WSW FLOW... 75-80 SHOULD BE COMMON AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. ONLY POTENTIAL COMPLICATION WOULD BE CLOUD COVER AS 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN ADDITION... SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS TO TRACK INTO UPPER LAKES...AND ETA/GFS/NGM GENERATE SOME PCPN OVER OR VERY NEAR FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. NOT SOLD ON THIS GIVEN A CONTINUED LACK OF GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL SFC DWPTS RISING TO 50F OR BETTER OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LOOK MUCH TOO HIGH...SO POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING S TOWARD UPPER MI SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. SEEMS MORE LIKELY PCPN WOULD BE FOCUSED JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. MON NIGHT...ETA TREND WITH FRONT IS NOTABLY SLOWER. 00Z RUN HAD FRONT NEAR KMKE BY 12Z TUE. 12Z RUN HAS IT NEAR KMNM AT 12Z TUE. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER MORE CONSISTENT GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS. WILL GENERALLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. TUE HIGHS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER... ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS NE WINDS LOCK IN ACROSS THE LAKE. FCST GETS QUITE COMPLICATED TUE NIGHT/WED AS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DOMINANT NRN STREAM WILL BE IN SUPPRESSING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS AFFECTS CRITICAL PLACEMENT OF STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LAKES AND THUS PTYPE AND LOCATION OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN. GFS IS FARTHEST N AND HAS 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF PCPN FROM TUE EVENING TO THU MORNING...OF WHICH HALF WOULD PROBABLY BE SNOW/SLEET. EVEN THOUGH CANADIAN IS FARTHER S...IT ALSO BRINGS SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO UPPER MI TUE NIGHT. UKMET FOCUSES ITS HEAVIER PCPN FROM SRN MN TO NRN LWR MI TUE NIGHT. DIFFICULT TO ASSESS WHICH MODEL MAY HAVE THE EDGE...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR INCREASED HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER ONTARIO UNDER STRONGER NRN BRANCH. RESULTING ERLY FEED OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHARP NRN EDGE OF PCPN. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE GOING FCST AS IS (LIKELY POPS TUE NIGHT/WED) UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS...BUT FEELING IS POPS WILL NEED TO BE CUT BACK...ESPECIALLY N. RAIN WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS COLD AIR DEEPENS. THU-SUN...GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECWMF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. SRN STREAM SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR WED WILL BEGIN TO EXIT AREA THU WITH LINGERING PCPN DIMINISHING. WILL PLAN FOR A DRY DAY FRI...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO NEW TROF DEVELOPING OVER WRN CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF TROF AXIS FRI/SAT. HOWEVER...00Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING NE TOWARD UPPER MIDWEST BY SAT MORNING WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS FCST AREA SAT. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES/06Z GFS DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH QUICK MOVEMENT AND THIS IS PREFERRED BY HPC. WILL HOLD ONTO DRY WEATHER SAT AND THEN INTRODUCE CHC POPS ON SUN AS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. .MQT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY MIZ009>012. ROLFSON mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1114 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2003 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ATOP THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SATELLITE LOOPS HAVE SHOWN THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE CURRENT RUC AND MESO ETA SOLUTIONS INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. SO I THINK OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS IN THE THUMB...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD. SO NO UPDATED GRIDS OR ZFPDTX WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. CONSIDINE ............PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION......... TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY BRISK WESTERLIES ALOFT BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKES REGION MONDAY...THEN MODELS REASONABLY DEPICT FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED MORE WEST TO EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE SAGGING SOUTH. ETA STILL FASTER IN MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH THAN GFS AS ETA SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT... AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH MOVING IN LATER IN WEEK...A LITTLE SHARPER. ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS FRONT SOUTH...WITH GFS BRINGING VIGOROUS SURFACE WAVE INTO SOUTHERN LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...SHOW GFS FASTER IN MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...THOUGH SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN ETA WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS. ALSO...MODELS SHOW SLOWER TREND OF INCOMING MID LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CHURNING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK AND EVENTUALLY REACHING LAKES REGION. WILL GO ALONG WITH FASTER GFS TRENDS FOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT YET READY YET TO GO AS FAST AS ETA. GENERAL LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EVEN PREVAILING MONDAY. GFS PRETTY MUCH HOLDS OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT OMEGA LIFT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN WILL MAKE FIRST MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDER...A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE...850 TO 500 MB...RATHER MEAGER UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS PER GFS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR OR AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL TUESDAY AT LEAST. OTHERWISE AS FOR DYNAMICS... MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PUSH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS MAIN WAVE MOVES IN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE BECOMING GOOD BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS SAGGING FRONT MOVES IN...SOME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS WELL. MODEST 850 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT TOO...ALONG WITH 300K NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA LIFT AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING TO UNDER 30 MB MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY INDICATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL PAST MID WEEK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH SURFACE TO 850 MB LIFTED INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AT BEST...BUT K INDICES CLIMBING TO CLOSE TO 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EARLIER ZONE PACKAGE AND TO GUIDANCE...WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC FLOW EASTERLY COMPONENT BOLSTERED BY LAKE BREEZES TODAY TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COOLER. .DTX...NONE. $$ DWD EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 201 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2003 STILL WARM WITH WINDY PERIODS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS CENTRAL PLAINS IN CENTER OF UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE. WARMEST AIR HAS BEEN SHOVED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER H85 CHART THIS MORNING. MODERATE MOISTURE RETURN OF +5-7C H85 DEWPOINTS INTO OKLAHOMA...WITH SURFACE REFLECTION OF 55 DEWPOINTS CROSSING THE RED RIVER AT 14Z. FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE CWFA...AND RUC40 SAYS THIS WILL HOLD TRUE TODAY ALL AREA EXCEPT FAR WESTERN 3 COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA CWFA. ONE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA BRINING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PER STEEP LAPSE RATES. NEW MEXICO WAVE SLIDING EAST SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOING THE SAME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONTINUE WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RECORD TERRITORY POSSIBLE FOR HASTINGS. SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN THE BREEZIEST. TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FORM WEST OF HILL CITY AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING FLOW PULLING MORE MOISTURE IN THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL NEAR BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE BY EVENING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD HANDLE ON AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CWFA. DRYLINE WILL TURN INTO THE FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWFA...WITH 'HIGHER' POPS FAVORING EAST AND NORTH. MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. WEDNESDAY IS NOTHING BUT COLD ADVECTION...AND WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SEEM IN LINE. MY CONCERN IS IT MY COLDER THAN WE HAVE NOW...AS ETA EASILY SWIPES THE 0C H85 LINE INTO THE CWFA. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A REBOUND OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO MUCH. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY IS A DRY DAY. BELIEVE THE GFS IS TOO FAST WITH SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT FRIDAY. FAVORING A SLOWER EC/CMC RENDITION. HAVE ALIGNED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STILL HESITANT TO ESSENTIALLY RAIN-OUT THE EASTER WEEKEND. SEEMS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLIT FLOW SETTING UP IS MORE LIKELY...WHICH TENDS TO LEAVE US SEASONAL AND DRIER. ECHO THE MID-SHIFT FORECASTER SAYING "TIME WILL TELL". .GID...NONE. $$ MORITZ ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1024 PM CDT SUN 13 APR 2003 RETREATING DRYLINE WAS LEADING TO WARMER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE WINDS WERE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED PER CURRENT TRENDS. FCSTID = 08 AMARILLO 52 84 53 80 / 00 00 20 20 BEAVER 53 87 55 80 / 00 10 20 20 BOISE CITY 49 81 48 73 / 00 00 20 10 BORGER 53 87 53 80 / 00 00 20 20 BOYS RANCH 50 85 49 79 / 00 00 20 10 CANYON 52 85 50 80 / 00 00 20 10 CLARENDON 58 87 54 82 / 00 10 20 20 DALHART 49 82 48 76 / 00 00 20 10 GUYMON 51 86 52 78 / 00 00 20 20 HEREFORD 51 84 49 78 / 00 00 20 00 LIPSCOMB 58 87 55 81 / 00 10 20 20 PAMPA 57 86 54 82 / 00 00 20 20 SHAMROCK 60 89 55 83 / 00 10 20 20 WELLINGTON 60 89 56 83 / 00 10 20 20 .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. ==================================================================== 314 PM CDT SUN 13 APR 2003 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1006 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR LA JUNTA COLORADO. 18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH 8H DEW POINTS NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WEAK DRYLINE IN PLACE TONIGHT. EXPECT 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGED TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS POWERFUL SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. DECENT CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION TONIGHT DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MINOR CU FIELD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FIRST PERIOD. DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS 70KT 5H JET APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STRONG DRY/DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WINDS LOOK LIKELY. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WATCH MONDAY FOR WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT DRYLINE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY WELL EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADJUSTED DEW POINT GRIDS AND DROPPED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST. HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN. NEXT DILEMMA IS FOR POST FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION WEDNESDAY. APPEARS COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE. TEMPS RECOVER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GRIDS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYSTEM TRACK AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. HAVE ALSO KEPT 20 POPS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. FCSTID = SLATTERY $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 314 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2003 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1006 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR LA JUNTA COLORADO. 18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH 8H DEW POINTS NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WEAK DRYLINE IN PLACE TONIGHT. EXPECT 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGED TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS POWERFUL SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. DECENT CAP IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION TONIGHT DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MINOR CU FIELD. WILL GO WITH A DRY FIRST PERIOD. DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS 70KT 5H JET APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STRONG DRY/DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WINDS LOOK LIKELY. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WATCH MONDAY FOR WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT DRYLINE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY WELL EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADJUSTED DEW POINT GRIDS AND DROPPED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST. HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN. NEXT DILEMMA IS FOR POST FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION WEDNESDAY. APPEARS COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE. TEMPS RECOVER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GRIDS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYSTEM TRACK AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. HAVE ALSO KEPT 20 POPS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. FCSTID = SLATTERY AMARILLO 51 84 53 80 / 00 00 20 20 BEAVER 50 87 55 80 / 00 10 20 20 BOISE CITY 46 81 48 73 / 00 00 20 10 BORGER 49 87 53 80 / 00 00 20 20 BOYS RANCH 48 85 49 79 / 00 00 20 10 CANYON 50 85 50 80 / 00 00 20 10 CLARENDON 52 87 54 82 / 00 10 20 20 DALHART 47 82 48 76 / 00 00 20 10 GUYMON 48 86 52 78 / 00 00 20 20 HEREFORD 49 84 49 78 / 00 00 20 00 LIPSCOMB 50 87 55 81 / 00 10 20 20 PAMPA 50 86 54 82 / 00 00 20 20 SHAMROCK 52 89 55 83 / 00 10 20 20 WELLINGTON 54 89 56 83 / 00 10 20 20 .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2003 BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE RUC FORECAST...CURRENT ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT EAST OF SOUTH THAN CURRENT FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SHOULD TURN DUE SOUTH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO UPDATES ON THE ZONES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. .GRB...NONE. $$ ECKBERG WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2003 THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WEST TO ROUGHLY A KCNM TO KFST LINE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE LAST HOUR OR SO OF OBS AT KATS SHOWING A SOUTH WIND IS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THE RUC MODEL HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE MOVE THIS AFTERNOON. WE BELIEVE THE GRIDDED MODEL DATA IS MIXING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TODAY WHILE THE MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER IMPRESSIVE (NEAR 8-8.5C/KM) ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE FOR AT LEAST 10% POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A STRONG 250MB JET BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NM. GFS MODEL IS INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RETREATING DRYLINE. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE EAST AND SPREAD SOME 10% POPS OUT WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE SCENARIO. THE LEADING EDGE OF A 130KT 250MB JET APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW AND WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... COOLING 500MB TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE...WE WILL ADD SOME POPS TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK...AND WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15KT AND 60KT 500MB WESTERLY WINDS... AGREE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE GFS INDICATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TO DELAY THE BEST MIXING POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH JUST YET. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WEST COAST STORM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS IS INDICATING THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THIS SYSTEM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THANKS TO LBB FOR COORDINATION. MAF BB 088/062 085/055 079 06122 CNM BB 090/055 083/046 080 06011 MRF BB 081/047 077/041 076 06021 FST BB 089/060 087/057 081 06122 .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. $$ PLATT tx SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 912 AM MST MON APR 14 2003 .SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. .DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE INVADING THE WESTERN STATES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM KTUS WAS INDICATING A PW OF 0.55 INCHES WHICH IS AN INCREASE OF ABOUT 0.20 INCHES SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS IN THE COLUMN ARE FAIRLY STRONG WITH ONLY 15 KNOTS AT 850MB...BUT AT 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. 700MB WINDS SHOW WIDESPREAD 30-40 KNOT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT THESE WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MY FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST IF WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED OVER THOSE AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. MOLLERE .TWC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR ZONES 19/30/35. $$ az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1000 AM CDT MON APR 14 2003 DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE ...RECORD BREAKING WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON... 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS 925 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH +20C AT DVN. GRADIENT DOESNT RELAX AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY +14C AT DVN/ILX/LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS. RUC THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB NEAR ROCKFORD...AND 800 MB OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. WAS INITIALLY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TREND IN THE RUC FORECAST...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON DVN...AND HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB...THIS WOULD TEND TO MAKE SOME SENSE. RUC FORECASTS +16 AT 850 AND +10 AT 800 MB AT 21Z. THIS WOULD MIX TO A UNIFORM +30/31C HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS CWA. WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO MID 80S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. RECORDS ARE (SOON TO BE WERE) 79/83 SET IN 1941 AT ROCKFORD/OHARE RESPECTIVELY. OTHER ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE WINDS. WITH TIGHT HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENT ALREADY SEE 30 KNTS AT 950 MB ON LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS. ACARS SOUNDINGS FURTHER WEST REVEAL 40 KNTS AT 875 MB...SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST WINDS MENTIONED IN NORTHWEST ZONES. GENERALLY EXPECT 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 ESPECIALLY NEAR ROCKFORD. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR SOME MID/HI CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER IOWA. THOUGH BETTER SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR AREA...SUSPECT SOME DEBRIS TO BE ADVECTED OVER AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .CHI...GALE WARNING FOR NORTH THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARSHORE WATERS. ROGOWSKI AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12 TAFS ONLY REAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WIND ALOFT. RADAR SHOWS 40KT AT 020. ONLY 1 ACARS RECENTLY AROUND ORD SHOWS ONLY 25KT. ETA SOUNDING MORE LIKE RADAR SO SHOW A WIND SHEAR GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE MIXING TO GROUND WITH DRY AIR A LOT OF SUN TO ENSURE WELL MIXED LAYER WITH GUSTS 30+KT. WIND SHOULD DROP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS THRU NIGHT AS MIXING CONTINUES. AF il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1045 AM CDT MON APR 14 2003 FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...AS PER RUC DATA WOULD SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED TO BUMP THEM UP EVEN MORE! UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT AROUND 11:30 AM. ALSO...PER COORDINATION CALL WITH WISCONSIN DNR...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE BROWN...OUTAGAMIE...CALUMET AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES. .GRB...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NC/C/NE WI FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT... $$ ECKBERG WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2003 AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...THEN BRING WINDS BACK UP DURING THE MORNING TUES. 12 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM MANY PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING ALMOST NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS REGION...EXCEPT SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS ACROSS IA. EXPECT THESE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUES. RATZER DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE ...RECORD BREAKING WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON... 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS 925 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH +20C AT DVN. GRADIENT DOESNT RELAX AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY +14C AT DVN/ILX/LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS. RUC THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB NEAR ROCKFORD...AND 800 MB OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. WAS INITIALLY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TREND IN THE RUC FORECAST...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON DVN...AND HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB...THIS WOULD TEND TO MAKE SOME SENSE. RUC FORECASTS +16 AT 850 AND +10 AT 800 MB AT 21Z. THIS WOULD MIX TO A UNIFORM +30/31C HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS CWA. WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO MID 80S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. RECORDS ARE (SOON TO BE WERE) 79/83 SET IN 1941 AT ROCKFORD/OHARE RESPECTIVELY. OTHER ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE WINDS. WITH TIGHT HEIGHT/MSLP GRADIENT ALREADY SEE 30 KNTS AT 950 MB ON LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS. ACARS SOUNDINGS FURTHER WEST REVEAL 40 KNTS AT 875 MB...SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST WINDS MENTIONED IN NORTHWEST ZONES. GENERALLY EXPECT 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 ESPECIALLY NEAR ROCKFORD. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR SOME MID/HI CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER IOWA. THOUGH BETTER SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR AREA...SUSPECT SOME DEBRIS TO BE ADVECTED OVER AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .CHI...GALE WARNING FOR NORTH THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARSHORE WATERS. ROGOWSKI il