NZUS43 KFGF 201657 WRKME2 MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-107-111-113-119-125-073- 135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-077-081- 091-095-097-099-111200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND 1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES...AHPS...ENABLE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... ...RED RIVE BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL... RED RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008 IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE THAT THE RIVER AT A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL RISE ABOVE THE STAGES INDICATED BY THE VALUES IN THE ROW FOR THAT LOCATION ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 10.4 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 11.6 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- WAHPETON ND 10 6.8 7.6 8.7 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.6 FARGO ND 18 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.4 18.0 19.6 20.6 21.9 HALSTAD ND 26 8.5 9.5 10.2 10.7 11.7 12.7 14.7 17.2 21.3 GRAND FORKS 28 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.6 22.0 26.4 30.6 OSLO MN 26 11.6 12.4 13.7 15.1 16.6 18.3 20.8 26.7 30.6 DRAYTON ND 32 13.8 14.4 15.6 16.1 17.2 18.6 20.1 23.4 26.9 PEMBINA ND 42 16.6 17.6 19.6 21.2 22.7 24.9 26.4 30.3 33.8 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- SO FORK BUFFALO RIVER... SABIN 12 6.5 8.4 9.5 10.0 10.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.5 BUFFALO RIVER... HAWLEY 7 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.4 7.1 9.0 DILWORTH 12 5.3 6.3 7.7 9.0 10.2 12.5 14.2 15.6 18.5 WILD RICE RIVER... TWIN VALLEY 10 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5 5.4 6.2 7.4 9.1 HENDRUM 20 6.5 8.5 9.5 10.6 13.4 15.4 17.1 21.8 25.4 MARSH RIVER... SHELLY 14 4.4 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.9 7.0 9.0 10.0 11.6 SAND HILL RIVER... CLIMAX 20 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.6 8.5 RED LAKE RIVER... HIGHLANDING 12 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 CROOKSTON 15 8.2 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.7 11.8 13.5 15.5 17.3 SNAKE RIVER... WARREN 845 840.9 840.9 840.9 841.0 841.2 841.5 841.7 841.9 842.2 ALVARADO 106 97.5 97.6 97.6 97.7 98.0 98.4 99.1 99.8 101.5 TWO RIVERS RIVER... HALLOCK 802 794.7 796.1 796.8 797.2 798.1 798.8 801.3 803.0 805.2 ROSEAU RIVER... ROSEAU 16 6.1 6.3 7.0 7.4 8.3 8.7 9.4 10.9 13.1 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- WILD RICE RIVER... ABERCROMBIE 10 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.1 6.9 11.4 SHEYENNE RIVER... VALLEY CITY 15 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.5 7.4 8.7 LISBON 11 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.6 6.8 9.6 KINDRED 16 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.6 8.0 12.9 HARWOOD 884 868.2 868.6 869.7 870.3 870.9 871.9 873.5 875.7 879.0 WEST FARGO 18 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.9 14.5 18.5 MAPLE RIVER... ENDERLIN 9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 5.1 7.8 MAPLETON 905 895.4 895.4 895.4 895.4 895.6 896.5 898.1 899.2 904.2 GOOSE RIVER... HILLSBORO 10 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.3 5.1 FOREST RIVER... MINTO 6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.8 PARK RIVER... GRAFTON 12 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.5 PEMBINA RIVER... WALHALLA 11 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 6.7 NECHE 18 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.9 5.9 7.0 7.5 8.3 12.0 ...DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL... DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF MAY 2008 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2008. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2008 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CREEL BAY 1447.1 1447.1 1447.2 1447.2 1447.2 1447.3 1447.3 1447.3 1447.4 STUMP LAKE 1447.1 1447.1 1447.2 1447.2 1447.2 1447.3 1447.3 1447.3 1447.4 THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1446.97 FEET THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1446.99 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006...A NEW PROVISIONAL RECORD OF 1449.20 FEET OCCURRED...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1449.18 FEET THAT OCCURRED ON JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR PREVIOUS HIGH WATER MARKS... SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW: CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2008 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CREEL BAY 1446.8 1446.7 1446.5 1446.4 1446.4 1446.3 1446.3 1446.2 1446.1 STUMP LAKE 1446.8 1446.7 1446.5 1446.4 1446.4 1446.3 1446.3 1446.2 1446.1 THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE WHERE THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT LAKE LEVEL FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 56 YEARS...1949-2004...OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE...SNOOKER IN WINTER... AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES...THE AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES ...AHPS. THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS... THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW MODEL...ESF. THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS USING CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. PROVIDING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER...THE OUTLOOK GIVES EXPECTED AMOUNTS OF RISK WHICH CAN THEN HELP WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES. FORECASTERS PRODUCE MULTIPLE SCENARIO HODOGRAPHS USING THE ESF MODEL INITIALIZED WITH RECENT RAIN...SNOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN AND APPLYING SETS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2004 AND FOR THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES... THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER MID-MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY FROM EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS. THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS THEN CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK IN THE LEFT MENU. CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720. $$ TEAM FGF NNNN