000 FGUS73 KFGF 212040 ESFFGF NDC005-027-071-121200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND 0239 PM CST WED JAN 21 2009 ...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL... THIS MONTHS LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE COVERING THE TIME PERIOD FROM JANUARY 26TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30TH...2009. REMEMBER THAT THESE OUTLOOKS ARE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND GIVE THE PROBABILITY OF THE LAKE EXCEEDING VARIOUS STAGE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED DURING THE VALID PERIOD COVERED BY THIS OUTLOOK. DUE TO A WET SUMMER AND A SHARP COLD SNAP IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE LATE FALL RAINS...THE RIVER/LAKE FORECAST MODEL IS CURRENTLY CARRYING MORE SNOW WATER (THREE TO FOUR INCHES) THAN IS EVIDENT FROM RECENT SNOW CORE MEASUREMENTS (ONE TO THREE INCHES). THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE FIELD MAY BE IN THE FORM OF AN ICE LAYER NEAR THE SOIL SURFACE OF FROZEN IN THE UPPER SOIL LAYERS. ALSO...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY DECEMBER SNOWFALL HAS PILED A LOT OF SNOW IN AND NEAR SHELTER BELTS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MODELED SNOW PACK. OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LA NINA IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LATE WINTER AND SPRING SNOW-MELT PERIOD. HISTORICALLY...WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS WITH A LA NINA ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER THAN THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO FORECAST HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE START OF THE MELT CYCLE...BUT HISTORY SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 20 TO 25 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF MARCH. THE OUTLOOKS ALREADY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE THREAT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AND THESE ARE REPRESENTED BY THE LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL CHANGE DURING THE SPRING...SO SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL ALSO CHANGE. AS THE HYDROLOGIC PICTURE DEVELOPS...THE OUTLOOKS WILL BECOME MORE ACCURATE AND PRECISE AS WE GET NEARER TO THE SPRING FLOOD. THE NEXT UPDATE IS SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 23RD. DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK VALID JANUARY 26, 2009 - SEPTEMBER 30, 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY 2009 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2009. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS VALID 1/26/2009 - 9/30/2009 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CREEL BAY 1450.4 1450.6 1450.8 1451.1 1451.2 1451.5 1452.0 1452.2 1453.0 STUMP LAKE 1450.4 1450.6 1450.8 1451.1 1451.2 1451.5 1452.0 1452.2 1453.0 THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1447.1 FEET THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1447.0 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006...A NEW PROVISIONAL RECORD OF 1449.20 FEET OCCURRED...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1449.18 FEET THAT OCCURRED ON JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR PREVIOUS HIGH WATER MARKS... SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT: HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW: CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS VALID 1/26/2009 - 9/30/2009 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CREEL BAY 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 STUMP LAKE 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 1447.1 THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE WHERE THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT LAKE LEVEL FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 56 YEARS (1949-2004) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)... AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS). THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE FROM... THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT: WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK CURRENT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKE LEVELS ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720 $$ TEAM FGF NNNN