FXUS63 KPAH 290832
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING 
AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 
THE ONLY EXCEPTION...THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES 
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DRY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION. EVEN 
THOUGH THE SKY MAY OCCASIONALLY BE FILLED WITH CIRRUS...THE ABSENCE 
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS PORTRAYED BY THE ETA CU 
RULE SHOULD STILL EQUATE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO 
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THIS STRATEGY HAS WORKED 
WELL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

BY MONDAY...A VERY WEAK DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM 
THE NORTHWEST WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE 
GULF. EXACTLY HOW THIS UNFOLDS IS IN MUCH DEBATE BY THE VARIOUS 
NUMERICAL MODELS...BUT THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION IS ESSENTIALLY THE 
SAME. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/GFS/NGM/UKMET 
INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO AT 
LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE OF 
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS...WHEN THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PEAKS. 
GENERALLY FAVOR A BLEND BETWEEN THE WARMER FWC AND COOLER MAV ON 
MONDAY...AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TUESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EASTWARD INTO THE 
PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS 
RIDGE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP TO SQUELCH ANY 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE 
WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT CAN BE ADJUSTED LATER AS NEED BE. OVERALL. THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO NO MAJOR 
CHANGES REQUIRED.

.PAH...NONE.

$$

PRESLEY