FXUS61 KOKX 240610 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2003

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE TRI-STATE REGION IS IN THE MIDST OF A VERY PLEASANT 
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN 
CONTROL...AND HAS KEPT A COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE 
BEEN WIND DRIVEN. THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES WHERE 
STRONGER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS OF 28 KTS AT 1 THOUSAND FEET TO 
MIX DOWN...AS OPPOSED TO AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DE-COUPLED. 12 
AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN NEW YORK CITY 
AND LONG ISLAND. BY CONTRAST...THE TEMPERATURE IN SCATTERED INLAND 
LOCALES HAD DROPPED TO THE MID 50S AT THE SAME HOUR. WITH DEW POINT 
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S...EXPECT SHARP DOWNWARD MOVEMENT 
OF THE TEMPERATURES AS SOON AS WINDS DECREASE.

SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY 
TODAY...AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA TONIGHT...AND OFF THE 
VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS WILL 
SLOWLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FETCH...AND 
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ENJOY 
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...WITH PLEASANT 
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS SHIFT BY 
MONDAY...THIS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WILL 
START TO ADVANCE THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS 
BACK INTO THE REGION. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE 
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THE 
MOISTURE FIELDS DO NOT MATCH UP WELL WITH THE LIMITED LIFT WITH THIS 
WEAK SYSTEM...SO WILL INCREASE THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT 
LEAVE POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.

MID-RANGE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRAVERSE 
THE TRI-STATE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THIS FRONT DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT CAME THROUGH LATE 
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED TO 
BE IN PLACE BY THEN...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED IN 
ADDITION TO THE PHYSICAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT ITSELF...WILL 
LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS ALREADY FORECAST. HOWEVER...I DO NOT EXPECT 
MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE WITH THIS FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND 
IT DOESN'T BUILD DOWN AS WELL...AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS 
FLAT. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...I WILL KEEP CHANCE 
POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO TIME UNCERTAINTY. (MANY THINGS CAN 
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY) 
&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT TWO DAYS. MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW TODAY 
SHOULD HOLD ANY ATTEMPTS OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON 
AT BAY.  (NOTE - MM5 IS NOT AVAILABLE) 
&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP MINIMAL SCA GOING INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS BASED 
ON RUC BUFKIT DATA AND CURRENT OBS BEING CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS AT THIS 
TIME. WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THIS AT 10 AM OR EVEN A BIT EARLIER. 
OTHERWISE...NO PROBLEMS ON THE MARINE. 
&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
FOR TWO PERIODS THROUGH 7 DAYS. (WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY) AT THIS POINT 
BASIN AVERAGES SHOULD BE LOW FOR BOTH EVENTS...SO NO PROBLEMS WITH 
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.OKX CURRENT WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING
         ANZ330-335-350-353-355.
$$

PUBLIC/GRID DATABASE: JK
AVIATION/MARINE: TONGUE