AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 PM MST TUE NOV 2 1999
LEE TR0UGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH REGION ARE CURRENTLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS.
LATEST RUC2 FIELDS SUGGEST A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GROUPS BY THE END OF THE FIRST PERIOD...SO HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT WINDS.
MADE NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS EVEN THOUGH FLP GUIDANCE
TREND IS TO WARM THEM. AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE DRY AND WINDS TEND
TO DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PLUMMET TO FORECAST MINS DURING THAT TIME.
.GLD...NONE.
ENTWISTLE
FXUS63 KICT 030221 AMD ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EST TUE NOV 2 1999
LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND SAT PIXS INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST
OF THE PCPN MAY BE OVER..FOR THE CWA. LATEST SFC CHART SHOWING
THE LOW NOW OVER EXTREME NE TN. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
A TAD FASTER AND THE PCPN IS TRYING TO MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER
THAN WE THOUGHT EARLIER. WE STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW
MUCH THE DRY SLOT WILL FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH PCPN...OR FOR
THAT MATTER AS THE LOW MOVES NNE...WILL IT PULL THE PCPN BAND OVER
CENTRAL KY BACK INTO THE CWA. THEN WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO
TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION NOW...AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWN-SLOPING WE
HAD JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE THE FRONT CAME THRU HERE AN HOUR OR SO AGO AND TEMPS
HAVE BEEN FALLING QUICKLY AND NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY...
PRETTY MUCH AS FCST.
MESO-ETA AND LATEST RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON
THE MASS FIELDS...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAN THE ETA/NGM.
VERY INTERESTING IN WHAT THE MESO-ETA IS DOING TNGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT/
WRAP AROUND PCPN...MOVING IT SE ACRSS THE CWA. WITH CRASHING THICKNESS
AND COOLING BNDRY LAYER TEMPS...AT LEAST FLURRIES DONT SEEM OUT OF
THE QUESTION AT ALL...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM RIGHT NOW.
WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING PERIOD...
TWEAK POPS AND TEMPS HERE AND THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT
TERM MODELS. MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO SIMPLIFY THE ZONE BREAK UP AS WELL.
.JKL...NONE.
HALL
FXUS63 KLMK 020916 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EST TUE NOV 02 1999
THE LATEST SURFACE REPORTS FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NOW SHOWING
MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA... WITH A DUSTING
OF ACCUMULATION IN RUDYARD OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN LAKE CITY OF
MISSAUKEE COUNTY. EARLIER THIS EVENING...AREAS AROUND CHEBOYGAN...
MANCELONA AND CADILLAC REPORTED SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THIS WAS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND LOCATION NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHERN LOWER DID INDICATE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2200 TO 2500 FT THIS EVENING...
WHICH ALLOWED FOR THE VARYING REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLIER
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED
DIRECTLY ON THE WINDS AND ITS OVERALL EFFECT ON THE LAKE SNOW TONIGHT.
THE CURRENT APX 88D LOOP SHOWS THE ONCE WELL DEFINED NORTHERLY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... NOW BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED OVERALL... WITH A NARROW LES BAND STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. THE LATEST RUC WIND AND APX 88D WIND
PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM 350-360 TO 340
TONIGHT. WHICH WOULD BE IN LINE AS THE 88D IS PICKING UP ON THAT BAND
FORMING JUST NORTH OF TVC...WHICH IS SEEN WITH A 330-340 WIND
DIRECTION.
850 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP TONIGHT... TO NEG 8-9C
OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND TO -10C OVER EAST UPPER. THE TWO NEGATIVE
FACTORS TONIGHT WILL BE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND ITS DEPTH INTO THE
COLD AIR. RUC IS SHOWING 850/700 AND 850/500 MB MOISTURE TO DROP TO 50
PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS EAST UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EXTEND UP TO BE NOT
EXCEED COLDER THAN -9C...WHICH HAS LIMITED THE GROWTH POTENTIAL ALREADY
TONIGHT... AND THEREFORE THE REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE FLAKES.
DELTA T'S WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATER THAN 15C OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TRYING TO DEVELOP. WILL REARRANGE
GROUPS A LITTLE MORE TO TAKE 340 WIND DIRECTION INTO ACCOUNT. WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING INVERSIONS LESS
THAN 5000 FEET...WILL NOT MENTION OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KGRR 030231 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
925 PM EST TUE NOV 2 1999
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
EVENING. SURFACE LOW DEEPEN PRETTY GOOD AS IT QUICKLY ZIPPED UP THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECIP BEGAN TO
WEAKEN AND ROTATE OUT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT LIFT
AWAY...HOWEVER...SECONDARY VORT/CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OHIO INDIANA BORDER IS ENHANCING PRECIP OVER EXTREME NW
OHIO. RUC SHOWS THIS TO DEVELOP A BIT MORE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO INTO MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES BEFORE PULLING AWAY. BACK
EDGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE VERY
EASTERN PART OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF STATE WILL ALSO BE CLIPPING A
SHIAWASSEE-LENAWEE COUNTY AREA. ALL PRECIP WILL BASICALLY BE VERY
LIGHT AND FOR THE MOST PART SNOW...EXCEPT FOR AROUND THE CITY AREAS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WERE A MIX OF RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TIMES.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND WONT REALLY SEE
ANY UNTIL MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR STEADY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING A FEW DEGREES. WILL HANG ON TO CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS. WILL CUT BACK PRECIP CHANCE ACROSS ZONES.
DTX...GALE WARNING ON LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
COSTELLO
FXUS63 KMQT 030203 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 AM EST TUE NOV 2 1999
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE VIRGINIA/S WITH
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WORKING BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CWA...ALONG WITH
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LATEST ETA AND RUC SUGGESTS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOW SOUTHEAST OF
OF CWA MAY WORK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HAVE SPLIT OUT
THREE LAKESHORE COUNTIES TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE DREADED 50
PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE FROM CHEBOYGAN TO THUNDER BAY. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE WORDING ACCORDINGLY.
.APX...NONE.
ADAM
FXUS63 KGRR 021710 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 2 1999
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MIXING AT TIMES WITH FROZEN PCPN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AS LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.
SYSTEM PCPN JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHOWING NO SIGNS
OF BACKING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT PCPN
REALLY THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE SAME TYPE
WORDING FROM THE MORNING FORECAST OF LIQUID PCPN STARTING TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. 850MB TEMPS FALL
TO -7/-8 C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE RUC MODEL. WENT WITH SCATTERED
TYPE WORDING TOWARD THE LAKE AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES INLAND AS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BETTER PCPN NEAR THE COAST. UPDATED TEMP
WORDING TO MENTION NEAR STEADY TEMPS AROUND 40 TO BETTER LINE UP
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ZONES ALREADY OUT.
.GRR...NONE.
DUKESHERER
FXUS63 KDTX 021614 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CST TUE NOV 2 1999
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE CWA THIS FORECAST
CYCLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RUC
ONCE AGAIN HAS THE BEST SHORT TERM HANDLE ON THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. RUC HIGH LEVEL HUMIDITY PROGS
INDICATE THAT FAR WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE EAST. SURFACE DEW POINTS
THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING IN THE TEENS AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S WITH MIDDLE 20S IN THE FAR WEST. FWC MINS LOOKS GOOD.
A LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL COVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED IN THE EAST WITH AN
E TO SE COMPONENT IN THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 50S IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB ABOVE 0C. THE WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD EAST WITH
H8 0C ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RUN WITH 45
TO 50 IN WI...AROUND 50 IN EASTERN MN AND NEAR 55 IN THE W. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE AN
OUTSTANDING EARLY NOVEMBER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.
EXTENDED PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. JUST A
BRIEF COOL SHOT WITH THE FRONT AS WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. WILL
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE BY
SUNDAY.
.MSP...NONE.
HILTBRAND
FXUS63 KDLH 022044 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CST TUE NOV 2 1999
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY...
AND THEN ONLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS DRY WITH NO RISK OF PCPN. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN CO. 50 TO 70 KT WINDS BELOW 700 MB ON
THE NELIGH PROFILER LIKELY AFFECTED BY SOME TYPE OF BIRD MIGRATION.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS PASSED OVER THE
AREA A BIT EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO WE SHOULD BE IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS MORNING. AFTER SOME
GUSTINESS MID TO LATE MORNING...THE WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO TX. RUC MODEL BRINGS
THE WIND AROUND TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED BACK TO
THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS AT THE LEAST FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND IS DEPICTED WELL IN MODEL TIME SECTIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY SINCE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY GOOD FOR RADITIONAL COOLING. PROBLEM IS
THAT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS DURING THE NIGHT. AMOUNT OF
DECOUPLING WILL BE THE KEY TO LOWS...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NGM MOS. 00Z GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY IS A
BIT WARMER...SO RAISED THIRD PERIOD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...STILL DRY WITH SEASONABLE MAXES AND MINS. PREVIOUS
MRF WAS HINTING AT A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BE IN LINE
WITH NORMAL TENDENCY FOR 500 MB PATTERN TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL
AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED SOMETIME BETWEEN NOV 9 AND 15. WILL SEE
WHAT THE NEW OUTPUT SHOWS. WORK ZONES WERE SENT.
.OMA...NONE
MILLER
FXUS63 KGID 020846 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
850 PM CST TUE NOV 2 1999
FOCUS TNGT WL BE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND UNFORTUNELY MANY OF THE SAME
QUESTIONS ASKED BY EARLIER FCSTR STILL REMAIN UNANSWERED. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 5 TO 15 DEG F RANGE AND LIGHT WINDS IN MUCH OF THE
CWA...NO DOUBT THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD LOWS NEEDS TO BE ENTERTAINED.
STLT SHOWING THE BACK END OF SE MOVING HIGH CLDS NOW IN THE WRN DKTS
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE CWA LATE TNGT. MEANWHILE 00Z RUC AND
00Z AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATED WAA IS TAKING PLACE IN WRN CWA ATTM.
PRVS FCST TOOK ALL THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND TIL REALITY SAYS OTHERWISE
WL LEAVE CURRENT FCST LOWS AS IS.
OVERALL I SEE THIS A NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO BE VRY
DEPENDENT ON MICROCLIMATOLOGY AT THE SENSOR SITES DUE TO THE DESERT
CLIMATE AND SENSITIVITY OF THE ASOS TEMP/DEWPOINT SENSOR. FOR
EXAMPLE FSD WAS THE COLDEST SPOT IN THE WHOLE FSD CWFA AT 8 PM WITH 26F
AND NOW AT 840 PM WAS 3 DEGREES WARMER. I WOULD BET THERE IS
PROBABLY A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE CITY OF SIOUX
FALLS AS WE SPEAK.
ANY CHGS TO FCST WL BE MAINLY FOR TWEAKS IN CLDS AND WINDS.
.FSD...NONE
B RUBY
FXUS63 KFSD 022124 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
938 PM CST TUE NOV 2 1999
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AT 0300Z/
03 WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
SPARSE HIGH CLOUDS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ AND NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO...DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AROUND TOP OF
SOUTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXIST OVER CWA WITH EXCEPTION OF 5-10
KT WINDS. LATEST RUC DATA DEPICTS AT LEAST 5 KT WINDS VEERING
SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST OF LEE TROUGH. IF ADDITIONAL DATA INDICATES
LIGHTER WINDS...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF LEE TROUGHING KEEPS WINDS UP OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAVE
TEMPERATURES AT CURRENT FORECAST LEVELS IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. WILL
SEND A ZONE UPDATE SOON TO DROP EVENING WORDING...IF NOT FOR ANYTHING
ELSE.
.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
AKL
FXUS64 KFWD 030337 tx
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 AM CST TUE NOV 2 1999
...CORRECTED PRELIM CCF TONIGHTS LOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A 1038 HIGH POSITIONED ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OVER
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY RESULTING IN A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER FAN GUIDANCE AND BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...FLOW WAS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CORRELATED WELL WITH THE RUC 300 TO 500 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WHICH FORECASTS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY...SHEARING OUT IN THE PROCESS. AS A RESULT...
WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTY SUNNY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS WILL BE IMPEDED AS A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH BRINGS WINDS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN STEADY TEMPERATURES OR A SLIGHT WARMING LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAYS
HIGHS AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY
THERE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. THE LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
AND A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LEE TROUGH SHOULD REORGANIZE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT UPPER-LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD RESULTING IN UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY AND PARTLY SUNNY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIM CCF:
AMA 51/33 69/38 75 000
DHT 52/31 68/37 75 000
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
CB
FXUS64 KSJT 020915 tx
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 AM CST TUE NOV 2 1999
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A 1038 HIGH POSITIONED ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OVER
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY RESULTING IN A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER FAN GUIDANCE AND BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...FLOW WAS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CORRELATED WELL WITH THE RUC 300 TO 500 MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WHICH FORECASTS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY...SHEARING OUT IN THE PROCESS. AS A RESULT...
WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTY SUNNY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS WILL BE IMPEDED AS A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH BRINGS WINDS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN STEADY TEMPERATURES OR A SLIGHT WARMING LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAYS
HIGHS AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY
THERE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. THE LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
AND A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LEE TROUGH SHOULD REORGANIZE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT UPPER-LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD RESULTING IN UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY AND PARTLY SUNNY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIM CCF:
AMA 51/31 69/38 75 000
DHT 52/33 68/37 75 000
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
CB
FXUS64 KCRP 020844 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
237 AM EST WED NOV 3 1999
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN QUIET WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE PACKAGE. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHEN TO END
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY...AND WHAT FORM THE PRECIPITATION
WILL TAKE.
AT 06Z STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERNMOST ONTARIO WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGED FROM MINNESOTA TO KANSAS CITY TO TEXAS. 07Z OBS
SHOWED ALL LOCATIONS IN MY CWA IN THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S...WITH
DRIZZLE AT COLDWATER AND FLURRIES AT STURGIS. NORTH OF MY AREA IN
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP BANDS GRAND RAPIDS REPORTED FLURRIES AND
MUSKEGON GRAUPEL.
RUC SHOWS H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND ETA AND NGM AGREE. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LAKE BANDS FROM 10Z TO 15Z...AND ACTUALLY RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING
AN INCREASE.
ETA INITIALIZED BEST AT 06Z...WITH NGM DOING WELL TOO. ETA AND NGM
HAVE SIMILAR FORECAST SOLUTIONS SO WILL USE THOSE MODELS FOR THIS
PACKAGE.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON: DECREASING MOISTURE...SUBSIDENCE...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC.
THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT SNOW...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A MIX OF LIQUID
AND FROZEN OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THIS MORNING SO WILL LIKELY CALL IT A MIX IN THE ZONES.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT NICELY TONIGHT. H5 VORT MOVES OVERHEAD TOMORROW
BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
THE EXTENDED REMAINS QUIET WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT THE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BLOCK OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS NGM MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
.IWX...NONE.
REAUGH
FXUS63 KIND 021955 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EST WED NOV 3 1999
COLD AIR ADVECTION WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON'S
WEATHER. 12Z RUC SUPPORTS THIS. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
DICTATE SC WILL POP IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SOME REMAINING
SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LEFT PRECIPITATION AS IS IN FORECAST. BEST CHANCES IN THE POCONOS
AND LEHIGH VALLEY. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
STATUS QUO ON MARINE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST AND
THE DE BAY.
PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADV SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AND DE BAY.
SZATKOWSKI
FXUS61 KCTP 031432 pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1035 AM CST WED NOV 3 1999
LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATED A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MAKE CHANGES TO SKY FORECAST TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE WEST
AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE EAST. AFTER LATEST PERUSAL OF FWC AND
THE LATEST FLP GUIDANCE...WILL TRIM HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
MOST PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE CENTRAL. ALSO MODIFIED THE WINDS PER
THE RUC MODEL AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
.ABR...NONE.
ECKBERG
FXUS63 KABR 030917 sd