FXUS66 KSTO 231722
AFDSAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT FRI JAN 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TOPS OF STRATUS IN THE VLY ROUGHLY 1400 FT ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS... 
ETL PROFILERS AND PILOT REPORTS. WITH APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT... 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TURN LIGHT UPVALLEY TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MASKING STRATUS...AND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT 
ON CLOUD TOP WARMING AND DISSIPATION OF STRATUS. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE 
SLOWER TO LIFT BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS. 

SHORT WAVE NEAR 40N/131W FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE NORCAL 
COAST TODAY AS SHORT WAVE OFF THE B.C. COAST MOVES INLAND. 
HOWEVER...THE MORNING MODELS DROP THE OFFSHORE LOW NEAR 40N/131W 
ALONG THE COAST ON SAT AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...OVER THE GOA... 
DIGS SWD AND PARALLELS THE B.C. COAST...AND THEN MOVES INTO THE NRN 
PLAINS. STRONGEST DYNAMCIS/UVM AND QPFS WILL LIKELY STAY OVER THE 
COASTAL AREAS AND MTNS AS THIS WAVE TAPS A 1.1 INCH PW PLUME WHICH 
SINKS SWD WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LIMITED TIME FOR OROGRAPHICS... 
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A 6 HOUR WINDOW...AS THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN 
NWLY BEHIND THE SINKING SHORT WAVE. NO PRECIP ADVSRYS PLANNED.  

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER NORCAL BEHIND THESE 2 
SYSTEMS LATE SAT AND SUN. WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN TNE NWLY FLOW WILL 
PASS OVER NORCAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR NRN MTNS 
POSSIBLE. 12Z FRI GFS TAKES THE STRONGER WAVE ON TUE ON A MORE SLY 
TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND NOW IS MUCH WEAKER. WILL RE-EVALUATE 
IN AFTN PACKAGE. EXTENSION OF POLAR VORTEX OVER WRN CANADA INTO NEXT 
WILL SUPPRESS ERN PAC RIDGE FROM BUILDING INTO NORCAL UNTIL DAYS 6 
AND 7...POSSIBLY.   JHM

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE        
             SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY...NORTHERN SAN   
             JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA       
             THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$