AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH ALABAMA                     
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD NORTH GEORGIA.             
RUC AND MESOETA INDICATE THIS SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND            
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AHEAD            
OF THIS AREA OVER GEORGIA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF              
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS OVER NORTH GEORGIA FOR THE               
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL                
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.                           
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                          
RATHER COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 500 MB            
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20-30 KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY                 
MORNING...PROVIDING A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN               
SCOURED OUT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT                 
ALREADY SIGNS OF RETURN FLOW WITH SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING              
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RUC/ETA40 PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF                 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF PALMER DIVIDE TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO              
BE LACKING AND WILL ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS.                                     
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE CO-LOCATED OVER               
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS                 
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 60S IN HILL CITY WITH MUCAPE OF 2500-3000             
J/KG. HOWEVER...ONLY LIFTING MECHANISM TO TAP INSTABILITY WILL BE               
LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL GET GOING AFTER 0Z IN THE EAST. ELEVATED             
CONVECTION MAY INITIATE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND            
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP                
SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW...PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                              
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY 0Z FRIDAY             
AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST 850               
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS.               
CAP WILL BE STRONG BOTH DAYS WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES MIDDLE TO                 
UPPER TEENS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS                  
FORMING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE               
EXTREME SURFACING HEATING AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES COMING THROUGH             
AT 700 MB. FORECAST 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS OF 220/15 KTS SUGGESTS LIMITED            
EASTWARD ADVANCE INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE             
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                         
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN AS TROUGH                 
SETTLES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW                   
MEXICO. RATHER WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH            
PLAINS THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH BELT OF STRONGEST 500 MB WINDS                  
PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES               
WILL BE EJECTED OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 700 MB                      
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE WEEKEND THE                  
CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND                  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER               
TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND MAKE THE SLOW TREK EASTWARD. WEAK 500 MB                
FLOW SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL BE UNORGANIZED...SO WILL CARRY NO                 
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY 700 MB                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AND CAP MAY BE TOO            
STRONG TO OVERCOME. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT FROM             
THE GFS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE UP SHARPLY (5F) AND POPS               
DROPPING BY ABOUT 10. WILL THEREFORE TREND THE FORECAST TO DRY AND              
HOT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
905 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
...MORNING UPDATE...                                                            
FAIRLY TRANQUIL MORNING ACROSS LMK FA TODAY, WITH ONE NOTABLE                   
FEATURE ON SATELLITE: SWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BDY JUST PASSING FTK              
AREA. EARLIER THIS FEATURE PRODUCED GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN DUBOIS                   
COUNTY, BUT HAS APPARENTLY MIXED OUT SUCH THAT THERE WASN'T MUCH OF             
A BREEZE WHEN IT PASSED THE WFO. OVERALL THIS BDY HAS OBVIOUS POTL              
TO RE-TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER CEN/SRN KY THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN                   
INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES. 21Z SREF ENSEMBLE DATA PICKS UP ON                    
SOMETHING LIKE THIS, SO WILL INCR POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THESE AREA THIS             
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC/SREF GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS CONVECTION                   
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AROUND KSTL BY 21Z, WHICH LOOKS TO                 
TRANSLATE EWD INTO OH VLY THIS EVENING. XXV                                     
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
930 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE                                                                         
00Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 100 J/KG FOR MOST OF THE                      
CWA...WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG WHEN MODIFIED FOR FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER                
WHERE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND 70. EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO                    
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE NOT AS GREAT AS EARLIER            
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL WITH THAT INSTABILITY THE DEEP UPPER TROF               
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO            
MI...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST              
OF THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF WILL BE FROM SANILAC TO SHIAWASSEE                
COUNTIES ON SOUTH.  IN FACT...THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS...ETA...AND               
21Z RUC ALL INDICATE THIS SCENARIO.  RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWS THAT               
THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST             
MICHIGAN. THEREFORE WILL RAISE POPS A BIT IN SOUTH OF I-69.                     
CERTAINLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION              
IN A REGION OF A 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE...INCREASING PW TO 1.7 INCHES             
AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING STORMS.                                              
RBP                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TWO            
MAIN SHORT WAVES ARE OF INTEREST WITH THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN IOWA.            
AN ASSOCIATED 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN HAS A WARM              
FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY KMBL TO KPHN. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME               
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT. LAPS DATA SHOW CAPE                    
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS             
BEEN NON EXISTENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IN                
FACT...HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN INDIANA BEFORE SEEING                 
MUCH CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN IS              
APPARENTLY HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE 18Z KDTX             
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION FROM 900 TO                      
850MB...WAY UNDERESTIMATED BY ALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.                          
THE SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND              
DEEPEN. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL MOVE               
INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z. SOME MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE             
800-700MB LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SE MICHIGAN FROM              
00Z TO 09Z TONIGHT. A 70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ADVANCE INTO               
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY 06Z...PLACING MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN              
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE                        
FORCING...ALONG WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM               
FRONT WILL ALLOW THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE HEADING INTO              
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND THE MODEST FORCING               
NOT MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL 00Z...THINK IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 3            
TO 4 HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN SE MICHIGAN. THE                  
LATEST CONVECTIVE INIT MODEL ACTUALLY HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL                
AFTER 03Z. THE 18Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL WINDS OF                       
40KTS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 M/S. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                 
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH ETA SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR                   
FALLING OFF TO 25 M/S BY MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS               
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASING INSTABILITY SOUTH OF             
THE WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE              
STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE CAPE PROFILE BECOMES MORE NARROW WITH                   
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES.                               
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MID LEVEL                 
SHORT WAVE EVOLVING INTO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER                    
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING               
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. QG PROGS SHOW LITTLE               
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION            
OFF SETS THE DCVA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A POTENTIAL CAPPING                
INVERSION NEAR 700MB WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.                 
NONETHELESS...ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 800 J/KG SBCAPE COUPLED WITH             
VERY STEEP SFC TO 850MB LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONE WILL WARRANT A                  
CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INSTABILITY AND CAPPING            
INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS...SINCE               
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL                  
TROUGH AXIS.                                                                    
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY EVENING.             
DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT. WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURS NIGHT GIVEN THE                
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL FOLLOW THE             
DEEPER UPPER LOW SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE                 
TRENDS. THIS WILL ADVECT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT. WILL THUS LOWER MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY               
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO BREAK 70 ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                      
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING MID             
LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT                 
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NUMEROUS UPPER            
TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SE                
MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH            
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO                
TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FOR THE TIME                      
BEING...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND             
AND JUST MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO             
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
925 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER THE UPR            
MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH MOIST CYC NNE FLOW OVER THE FA ON NW FLANK OF            
1006MB SFC LO NR TVC. TWO SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPR FLOW WL HAVE              
AN IMPACT ON FA TNGT. THE FIRST APPEARS OVER WRN WRN LK SUP/UPR MI              
AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF -SHRA...MAINLY ACRS THE CNTRL ZNS. BUT             
DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS PER WV IMAGERY AND 00Z GRB SDNG              
HAS ENDED THE STEADY RA OVER THE WRN COUNTIES/WI BORDER...WITH JUST             
SOME PTCHY -DZ NOTED OVER NRN WI. BUT PCPN INTENSITY ENHANCED IN THE            
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE NCNTRL CWA. THE OTHER SHRTWV IS OVER SRN MN            
AND HEADING EWD. 88D COMPOSITE/SFC OBS SHOW A WDSPRD RA UNDER THE               
COLDER CLD TOPS OVER MN SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. 00Z MPX SDNG                  
INDICATES A NEAR SATURATED LYR SFC-H575. MORE SHRTWVS DROPPING SSE              
INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF MAIN UPR TROFFING. TEMPS                
REMAIN MORE TYPICAL OF FALL THAN EARLY JULY WITH 01Z READINGS MAINLY            
50 TO 55 UNDER OVC SKIES. PTCHY FOG ALSO NOTED WITH SFC DWPT                    
DEPRESSIONS NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES.                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE PCPN TRENDS.                                        
WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT DEPICTED ON WV IMAGERY AND 00Z GRB              
SDNG FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF SHRTWV OVER WRN LK SUP/FA...EXPECT A                
BREAK IN THE STEADY RA TNGT AS INDICATED BY RUC QPF...WHICH SHOWS RA            
OVER THE CNTRL DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. BUT EXPECT A REINTENSIFICATION            
OF THE PCPN PATTERN LATER TNGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WITH APRCH OF              
MN SHRTWV. PREFER THE DEEPER ETA/RUC FCST UPR TROFFING OVER THE GFS             
SOLN GIVEN PARADE OF SHRTWVS DROPPING SSE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON                
BACK SIDE OF UPR TROF. ETA/RUC INDICATE CCB-LIKE STRUCTURE WL                   
REINTENSIFY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNGT ON THE CYC SIDE OF             
MN SHRTWV TRACK (FCST FM SRN MN TO JUST E OF IMT AT 12Z) AND IN THE             
LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...WHERE DPVA/H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
WL BE MAXIMIZED. LOOK FOR LTL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMP WITH PERSISTENT              
CLD COVER AND DWPTS TO THE N JUST A FEW POINTS LOWER THAN OVER THE              
FA. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER UPSLOPE AREAS.              
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE COOL AND DAMP PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY                   
THURSDAY AS THE 5H LOW TAKES ITS TIME TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. THEN THE NEXT 5H SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...            
BEGINS SENDING SHORTWAVES THROUGH SW 5H FLOW INTO THE UPPER                     
PENINSULA AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND            
NIGHT. THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS                   
DECENT SHORTWAVE SHUNTED INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12X               
FRI. ETA/GFS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS            
FEATURE. ETA STILL POINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OF            
UP TO 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. EARLIER ETA RUN SUGGESTED THE                      
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER ERN MN...AND THIS IS STILL SHOWN WITH THE            
NEW RUN. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FIRES ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL JET SHOULD WORK E INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FRI MORNING ALTHOUGH                
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF TO THE S OF THE AREA AS                
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR                  
THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA RATHER THAN THE             
GFS...WHICH BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER N INTO THE SRN U.P.                
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 5H LOW INTO MANITOBA BY FRI EVENING...                 
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE                 
REGION AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONGOING WARM AIR             
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. TEMPS REMAIN COOL UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK                
WEEK WHEN THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON FRI.                          
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 5H RIDGE HOLDING FAST OVER THE SRN              
U.S. THROUGH DAY 7...WITH SW TO W 5H FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE                   
REGION. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES             
DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING OVER UPPER              
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN MODEL PLACES A SFC RIDGE OVER            
THE REGION AT 0Z MON...BUT WITH NO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR               
THIS THE GFS IS PREFERRED AT IT IS MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS               
FEATURE. SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS TO INITIATE               
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS                    
CLIMBING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES SAT THROUGH MON.                
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ON MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH UPPER              
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF DEEPENING PLAINS LOW. CONVECTION TO FIRE MON AS               
THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...THEN A SHORT RESPITE OCCURS UNTIL THE 5H              
TROUGH PASSES BY JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND             
OF RAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE AS BOUNDARY AGAIN SAGS SOUTH AS A COOL                
FRONT BEHIND 5H TROUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING OFF IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.            
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO TUE FOR THIS REASON.                         
RJT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION...AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER               
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY TRACKS EAST. AT 15Z...SURFACE               
LOW (1007 MB) WAS LOCATED OVER/NEAR LAKE WINNEBAGO IN EAST CENTRAL              
WISCONSIN. CONVECTION HAS CAUSED CONSIDERABLE PROBLEMS WITH THE                 
PRESSURE FIELDS IN THE VARIOUS MODELS.                                          
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY                      
PUSHING NORTH. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF THIS              
MORNING...EXCEPT TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. SURFACE BASED INSTABITY WILL               
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE...AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD 70                  
DEGREES. 12Z MESOETA INDICATING SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMBING TO                 
2000 J/KG OR BETTER BY 18Z. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN THE VICINITY OF              
THE WARM FRONT...VERY CONCERNING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AS 0-1 SR               
HELICITY PROGGED TO BE OVER 125 ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST              
MICHIGAN. LCL/CCL HEIGHTS BOTH JUST BELOW 2000 FEET. THUS...ANY                 
CELLS THAT GET GOING COULD BE TORNADIC.                                         
HOWEVER...ONE BIG NEGATIVE IS AN UNFAVORABLE JET POSITION AND                   
500 MB NVA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PREVENT ACTIVITY THIS                
AFTERNOON...AS WE FOCUS MORE ON THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING             
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE THIS                     
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE            
POP GOING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES            
AND THUMB REGION...IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.                           
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING AS K INDICES CLIMB INTO UPPER              
30S. CERTAINTLY A SEVERE THREAT...AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH            
OF M-59. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
HALF OF THE CWA.                                                                
MAXES TODAY IN THE CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK...THUS NO CHANGES.                     
&&                                                                              
SF                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT.                                        
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES...WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. A             
COUPLE VORT CENTERS OF INTEREST...ONE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN                    
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST                   
MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR IOWA/WISCONSIN                       
BORDER...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA               
AND CENTRAL OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COUPLE LINES OF                        
CONVECTION...ALONG SURFACE AND ELEVATED FRONTS.                                 
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH PRECIP AND SEVERE CHANCES TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT. ETA/GFS STILL PRETTY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC                     
PATTERN...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE DEEPER BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.              
CANADIAN GLOBAL IS WEAKER THAN THE REGIONAL...WHICH IS ACTUALLY                 
DEEPER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE GFS. WILL ACTUALLY LEAN TOWARD THE               
GFS SOLUTION AT LEAST INITIALLY...WHICH VERIFIES BETTER COMPARED TO             
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. HARD TO TELL WHICH IS MORE FAVORED AS THE                 
SYSTEM LIFTS/REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH.                          
SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTION PATTERN EMERGES FOR TODAY. CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE            
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED BY                    
TROUGH/JET MOVING FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES. 00Z GFS/06Z RUC HOLD ONTO A STRONGER WAVE AND TRACK IT A BIT             
FARTHER EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ONTO MORE            
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM             
FRONT...INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BUT NOT THROUGH THE CWA...AS SURFACE LOW            
LOSES IT DEFINITION/PUSH AS THE LEAD UPPER WAVE WEAKENS/GETS WRAPPED            
UP INTO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                                              
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING                  
EASTWARD ALONG A TIGHT 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT. 00Z DTX SOUNDING IS              
RATHER DRY AND STABLE...AND IT HAS TAKE A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION             
OVERNIGHT TO GET SHOWERS THIS FAR EAST. A FEW HAVE TRIED TO POP                 
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THEY QUICKLY                 
FIZZLED IN THE STABLE AIRMASS. INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO            
A FEW SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD              
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT/UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.            
ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW PRECIP DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS             
MORNING...WHICH DOES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE STABLE AIR IN PLACE.             
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ADVECTION/INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SOME            
SHOWERS...WITH QUESTION BEING SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS COVERAGE.                   
03Z/06Z RUCS FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WHICH SEEMS                
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT AREA FALLS UNDER BETTER 850-500MB QVECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL                
KEEP SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA TO START THE MORNING.            
THIS GOES FOR THE THUMB AS WELL. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE LATER                    
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO POP ALONG THE              
INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...ITS WORTH A MENTION ESPECIALLY            
AS WE CONTINUE TO COOL THE MID-CLOUD LAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK                      
NEXT CONCERN IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS BOTH TRY TO DRY THINGS              
OUT FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE. RATHER WEAK 850-500MB QVECTOR                     
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE...BUT WHICH WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY THE               
MINNESOTA WAVE. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH A LEAST              
MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH SOME HEATING AND                    
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS...CAPES ARE STILL PROGGED TO CLIMB              
NEAR 2000J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT            
SHOW MUCH OF ANY CAP TO LIMIT CONVECTION EITHER. ACTUALLY...WIND                
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE                
FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40M/S WITH 0-1KM HELICITY APPROACHING                   
200M2/S2...AND LCL/LFC HEIGHTS BELOW 2500FT AT FNT/MBS. WITH                    
BOUNDARY/SHEAR/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUPERCELL                     
DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING FACTORS ARE SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION /SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN               
UNDER RIGHT-EXIT OF 300MB JET WITH GENERAL UPPER CONVERGENCE/.                  
HOWEVER WITH NEARLY BOUNDARY /OR MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES GIVEN EARLIER              
MORNING CONVECTION/ AND INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP SCATTERED TSRA GOING            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
PRECIP CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. AS THE SHORTWAVES             
MERGE INTO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...IT WRAPS INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW                
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BROAD SURFACE WAVE LINGERS OVER THE               
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAINLY CENTERED ALONG THE SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED            
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A DPROG-DT MODEL TREND SHOWS THIS PRECIP HAS              
SHIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. 00Z RUNS              
LAST NIGHT PAINTED HEAVY QPF FROM SOUTHWEST LOW INTO THE                        
THUMB...WHILE CURRENT RUNS KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY...WITH                      
CONVECTION FIRING MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. FEEL THERE IS               
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS...MUCH              
OF WHICH IS RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.              
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCATTERED TSRA GOING THROUGH THE                            
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH POPS SHADED HIGHER IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.                  
ETA/GFS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT                
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. COLD                 
FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER TO CROSS OUT OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z ETA             
DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT /1000J/KG/                  
DURING THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. IN                              
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE                   
RATES...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING UNDER CYCLONIC              
FLOW SURFACE/ALOFT. WITH INSTABILITY AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AT LEAST               
INITIALLY...WILL KEEP CHANCES TSRA THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE PRECIP            
AS MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TIMING              
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THROUGH THE DAY.              
BETTER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND               
WILL HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LONGER. BETTER DEEP                     
MOISTURE/LIFT IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE              
GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY             
ON THURSDAY UNDER 850MB THERMAL TROUGH...AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE                 
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.            
WARM UP BACK ABOVE NORMAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND.                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING THIS MORNING AS              
ACTIVITY IN THETAE ADVECTION REGIME HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. WILL               
UPDATE TO WORD MORNING PRECIPITATION AS ISOLATED...WITH A CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR             
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. WL KEEP SCATTERED             
WORDING GOING.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT.                                        
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT              
LAKES...WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. A             
COUPLE VORT CENTERS OF INTEREST...ONE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN                    
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST                   
MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR IOWA/WISCONSIN                       
BORDER...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA               
AND CENTRAL OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COUPLE LINES OF                        
CONVECTION...ALONG SURFACE AND ELEVATED FRONTS.                                 
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH PRECIP AND SEVERE CHANCES TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT. ETA/GFS STILL PRETTY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC                     
PATTERN...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE DEEPER BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.              
CANADIAN GLOBAL IS WEAKER THAN THE REGIONAL...WHICH IS ACTUALLY                 
DEEPER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE GFS. WILL ACTUALLY LEAN TOWARD THE               
GFS SOLUTION AT LEAST INITIALLY...WHICH VERIFIES BETTER COMPARED TO             
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. HARD TO TELL WHICH IS MORE FAVORED AS THE                 
SYSTEM LIFTS/REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH.                          
SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTION PATTERN EMERGES FOR TODAY. CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE            
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED BY                    
TROUGH/JET MOVING FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT                
LAKES. 00Z GFS/06Z RUC HOLD ONTO A STRONGER WAVE AND TRACK IT A BIT             
FARTHER EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ONTO MORE            
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM             
FRONT...INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BUT NOT THROUGH THE CWA...AS SURFACE LOW            
LOSES IT DEFINITION/PUSH AS THE LEAD UPPER WAVE WEAKENS/GETS WRAPPED            
UP INTO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                                              
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING                  
EASTWARD ALONG A TIGHT 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT. 00Z DTX SOUNDING IS              
RATHER DRY AND STABLE...AND IT HAS TAKE A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION             
OVERNIGHT TO GET SHOWERS THIS FAR EAST. A FEW HAVE TRIED TO POP                 
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THEY QUICKLY                 
FIZZLED IN THE STABLE AIRMASS. INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO            
A FEW SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD              
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT/UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.            
ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW PRECIP DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS             
MORNING...WHICH DOES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE STABLE AIR IN PLACE.             
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ADVECTION/INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO SOME            
SHOWERS...WITH QUESTION BEING SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS COVERAGE.                   
03Z/06Z RUCS FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WHICH SEEMS                
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT AREA FALLS UNDER BETTER 850-500MB QVECTOR                 
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL                
KEEP SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA TO START THE MORNING.            
THIS GOES FOR THE THUMB AS WELL. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE LATER                    
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO POP ALONG THE              
INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...ITS WORTH A MENTION ESPECIALLY            
AS WE CONTINUE TO COOL THE MID-CLOUD LAYER TOWARD DAYBREAK                      
NEXT CONCERN IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS BOTH TRY TO DRY THINGS              
OUT FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE. RATHER WEAK 850-500MB QVECTOR                     
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE...BUT WHICH WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY THE               
MINNESOTA WAVE. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH A LEAST              
MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH SOME HEATING AND                    
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS...CAPES ARE STILL PROGGED TO CLIMB              
NEAR 2000J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT            
SHOW MUCH OF ANY CAP TO LIMIT CONVECTION EITHER. ACTUALLY...WIND                
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE                
FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40M/S WITH 0-1KM HELICITY APPROACHING                   
200M2/S2...AND LCL/LFC HEIGHTS BELOW 2500FT AT FNT/MBS. WITH                    
BOUNDARY/SHEAR/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUPERCELL                     
DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING FACTORS ARE SYNOPTIC SCALE             
SUBSIDENCE AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION /SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN               
UNDER RIGHT-EXIT OF 300MB JET WITH GENERAL UPPER CONVERGENCE/.                  
HOWEVER WITH NEARLY BOUNDARY /OR MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES GIVEN EARLIER              
MORNING CONVECTION/ AND INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP SCATTERED TSRA GOING            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
PRECIP CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. AS THE SHORTWAVES             
MERGE INTO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...IT WRAPS INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW                
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BROAD SURFACE WAVE LINGERS OVER THE               
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAINLY CENTERED ALONG THE SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED            
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH A DPROG-DT MODEL TREND SHOWS THIS PRECIP HAS              
SHIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. 00Z RUNS              
LAST NIGHT PAINTED HEAVY QPF FROM SOUTHWEST LOW INTO THE                        
THUMB...WHILE CURRENT RUNS KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY...WITH                      
CONVECTION FIRING MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. FEEL THERE IS               
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS...MUCH              
OF WHICH IS RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.              
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCATTERED TSRA GOING THROUGH THE                            
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH POPS SHADED HIGHER IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.                  
ETA/GFS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT                
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. COLD                 
FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER TO CROSS OUT OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z ETA             
DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT /1000J/KG/                  
DURING THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. IN                              
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE                   
RATES...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING UNDER CYCLONIC              
FLOW SURFACE/ALOFT. WITH INSTABILITY AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AT LEAST               
INITIALLY...WILL KEEP CHANCES TSRA THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE PRECIP            
AS MORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TIMING              
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THROUGH THE DAY.              
BETTER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND               
WILL HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LONGER. BETTER DEEP                     
MOISTURE/LIFT IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE              
GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY             
ON THURSDAY UNDER 850MB THERMAL TROUGH...AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE                 
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.            
WARM UP BACK ABOVE NORMAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND.                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/GURNEY                                                                
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RATHER QUIET UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE CONCERN BEING THE NEXT               
THREAT OF CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.                  
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED            
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR                   
FILTERING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY                  
MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS HELPED TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING IN             
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RATHER                
WEAK. THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND UPPER AIR SUPPORT WILL LIKELY                 
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE              
CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY              
ACROSS THE NERN CWA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THROUGHOUT THE SE                 
CWA...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED.                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.            
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE               
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MESOETA AND GFS              
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MO            
AND EXTREME ERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                 
MESOETA SUGGEST WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305-310K                
SURFACE WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT. AS A                       
RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                  
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OK EXCEPT WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE                
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS MORNING CLOUD COVER AND WET                 
GROUND WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.                                
OVERALL MADE FEW CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. MID LEVEL                  
RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING THE FIRST REAL BOUT OF AOA 90F TEMPERATURES              
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ACTIVE NORTHERN             
JET STREAM SQUASHES RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR SLIM                    
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                
MAIN QUANDARY IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD            
FRONT CAN PUSH BEFORE IT RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE              
DAY SUNDAY.  IF 00Z GFS FORECAST PANS OUT...FRONT MAY NEVER MAKE IT             
THIS FAR SOUTH THUS LEADING TO A DRY WEEKEND.  WILL LEAVE FORECAST              
INTACT FOR NOW AND LET A COUPLE MORE RUNS COME IN BEFORE PULLING                
GOING LOW POPS.  RIDGING BUILDS IN EARNEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH              
SHOULD YIELD TYPICAL MID-JULY WEATHER BY THAT TIME.                             
BEUSTERIEN/HUDSON                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
625 AM...                                                                       
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MCS PROPAGATION ACROSS CWA.  APPEARS                
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE WANING THIS MORNING BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL            
QUITE HIGH...WITH THE MARSHALL MISSOURI AUTOMATED GAUGE REPORTING               
1.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES TIME SHORTLY AFTER 6 AM.  WILL                 
ADJUST TIMING OF WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MOVEMENT OF THIS                  
MORNING'S MCS...AND LEAVE AFTERNOON POPS INTACT UNTIL WE GET A                  
BETTER FEEL FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
HUDSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
LINEAR MCS/SQUALL LINE RUNNING NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KS            
INTO NORTHWEST OK WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING.             
RADAR TRENDS/SATELLITE IMAGERY/THERMODYNAMICS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT SUGGEST MCS WILL HAVE A NORTHERN SEGMENT WHICH TRACKS EAST              
INTO CWA AND A SOUTHERN SEGMENT WHICH TURNS SOUTHEAST. STRONG 3                 
HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 4MB IS REFLECTIVE OF                 
LARGE AND STRONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF MCS.             
850-300MB THICKNESS CONTOURS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOUTHERN                 
PORTION OF MCS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE BEST                    
INSTABILITY LIES. ICT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW HAS RACED AHEAD OF            
CENTRAL PORTION OF MCS AND THUS APPARENTLY DIVIDED SYSTEM INTO THE              
TWO SEGMENTS. NORTHERN SEGMENT IS ALSO MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE              
ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED BY CAPES IN EXCESS OF 5000J/KG. SCATTERED                  
CONVECTION HAS ALSO FORMED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS ALONG WEAK                  
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY... WITH CONTINUED GROWTH IN THIS REGION                    
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST RUC QPF APPEARS TO HAVE             
BEST HANDLE ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL HEAD INTO OUR CWA AND IT POINTS            
TO WEST CENTRAL MO...INCLUDING MKC AREA. THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO            
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THIS REGION FOR THE MORNING HOURS.                         
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO            
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION REFORMING               
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT CONDITIONAL IF ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER QUICK            
ENOUGH FROM MORNING STORMS. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF STRENGTHENING 250MB              
JET MAX WHICH IS AIDING THIS MORNINGS STORMS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT            
TO REFORM CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.                
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION             
OF CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.                       
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES INTO REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.            
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON            
BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED                 
CONVECTION BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.                         
WARM AND STEAMY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK              
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO THE                      
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE READING              
OF THE YEAR IN KC DURING THIS PERIOD.                                           
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1130 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                      
.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...                                             
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION COMPOSITE SHOWS AIRMASS RAPIDLY                   
DESTABILIZING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE STRONG SURFACE                  
HEATING IS ONGOING AHEAD OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM                     
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. MODIFIED 12Z KSGF SOUNDING AND RUC2 OBJECTIVE               
ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000                  
M2/S2. 850MB THERMAL CAP IS QUICKLY DISSOLVING AND EXPECT THAT DEEP             
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS FAIRLY IMMINENT GIVEN ABUDANCE OF            
CONVECTIVE TOWERS PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.                         
IMPRESSIVE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND DRY AMBIENT AIR PRESENT IN THIS            
LAYER SUPPORT RAPID UPDRAFT GROWTH...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR                  
PROFILES STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION INCLUDING LARGE               
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF SMALL BOW SEGMENTS CAN              
DEVELOP BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE CWA.                                     
THREAT AREA REMAINS CONFINED WITHIN SGF CWA TO ONLY SHANNON...                  
HOWELL...OREGON AND OZARK COUNTIES.                                             
FURTHER WEST...AIRMASS RECOVERY STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO AS                   
CONVECTIVE COLD POOL AND EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WRN            
MO/ERN KS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO ERODE QUICKLY AND WILL                
MONITOR THIS REGION FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG             
SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RETRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE                   
CONTENT BACK INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT                 
STRETCHING FROM MANHATTAN TO WICHITA WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR               
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF AIRMASS CAN RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY.                   
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MCS PROPAGATION ACROSS CWA.  APPEARS                
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE WANING THIS MORNING BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL            
QUITE HIGH...WITH THE MARSHALL MISSOURI AUTOMATED GAUGE REPORTING               
1.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES TIME SHORTLY AFTER 6 AM.  WILL                 
ADJUST TIMING OF WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MOVEMENT OF THIS                  
MORNING'S MCS...AND LEAVE AFTERNOON POPS INTACT UNTIL WE GET A                  
BETTER FEEL FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
HUDSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
LINEAR MCS/SQUALL LINE RUNNING NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KS            
INTO NORTHWEST OK WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING.             
RADAR TRENDS/SATELLITE IMAGERY/THERMODYNAMICS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT SUGGEST MCS WILL HAVE A NORTHERN SEGMENT WHICH TRACKS EAST              
INTO CWA AND A SOUTHERN SEGMENT WHICH TURNS SOUTHEAST. STRONG 3                 
HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 4MB IS REFLECTIVE OF                 
LARGE AND STRONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF MCS.             
850-300MB THICKNESS CONTOURS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOUTHERN                 
PORTION OF MCS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE BEST                    
INSTABILITY LIES. ICT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW HAS RACED AHEAD OF            
CENTRAL PORTION OF MCS AND THUS APPARENTLY DIVIDED SYSTEM INTO THE              
TWO SEGMENTS. NORTHERN SEGMENT IS ALSO MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE              
ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED BY CAPES IN EXCESS OF 5000J/KG. SCATTERED                  
CONVECTION HAS ALSO FORMED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS ALONG WEAK                  
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY... WITH CONTINUED GROWTH IN THIS REGION                    
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST RUC QPF APPEARS TO HAVE             
BEST HANDLE ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL HEAD INTO OUR CWA AND IT POINTS            
TO WEST CENTRAL MO...INCLUDING MKC AREA. THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO            
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THIS REGION FOR THE MORNING HOURS.                         
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO            
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION REFORMING               
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT CONDITIONAL IF ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER QUICK            
ENOUGH FROM MORNING STORMS. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF STRENGTHENING 250MB              
JET MAX WHICH IS AIDING THIS MORNINGS STORMS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT            
TO REFORM CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.                
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTION             
OF CWA WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.                       
COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES INTO REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.            
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON            
BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED                 
CONVECTION BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.                         
WARM AND STEAMY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK              
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO THE                      
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MAY BE ABLE TO REACH OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE READING              
OF THE YEAR IN KC DURING THIS PERIOD.                                           
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1002 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING KBUF SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION BELOW 850MB              
KEEPING CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.             
THE LATEST RUC AND MESOETA MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH FORECASTS OF            
BOTH 850MB AND 925MB MOISTURE...PORTRAY WEAKENING INVERSIONS AND                
DIMINISHING MOISTURE AT THOSE LEVELS.  ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD              
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE OVERALL FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY                 
AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK...WARMING IN MANY                
PLACES TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.                                            
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE                
THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF            
TO THE EAST.  LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORECAST SUBSIDENCE BY BOTH THE              
RUC AND MESOETA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SIMPLY SOME MID               
LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL                
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL OHIO WILL MAKE                 
LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK RIDGE            
IN PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE BETTER                  
PROGRESS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES               
ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY TO REFRESH MORNING                  
WORDING.                                                                        
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
AREA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUD DECK AT 06Z IN RETURN FLOW AROUND                
EXITING SFC TROF OVER ERN NY. EVEN SOME DRIZZLE BEING SQUEEZED OUT              
OVER CNTRL NY. USUALLY WE HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY IN ERODING THIS TYPE            
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS N-NW FLOW IS UPSLOPE AND OFF LK ONTARIO SO             
AM TEMPTED TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDS WELL INTO MORNING AND ETA SUGGESTS               
THIS. HOWEVER...FLOW OVER ONTARIO IS VERY ANTICYCLONIC WITH STRONG              
LL SUBSIDENCE AND LATEST IR SHOTS SHOW A GOOD PUNCH OF CLEARING                 
DIVING DIRECTLY SOUTH AND ALREADY REACHING N SHORE OF LK ONTARIO.               
THIS WILL SLOW UP WHEN IT REACHES OUR SIDE OF LAKE BUT BEGINNING TO             
FEEL WE WILL CLEAR SOONER THAN USUAL IN THESE CASES DUE TO                      
ORIENTATION OF TROF AXIS PULLING AWAY. PLAYED SKY COVER GRIDS TO                
HOLD CLOUDS IN TILL ABOUT 12-14Z OR SO BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST. WILL             
REVISIT THIS BEFORE DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD TURN SUNNY FOR            
MUCH OF THE DAY AND IT WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT. CIRRUS RACING INTO               
WRN MICH SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFF TO SOUTH FOR AWHILE AS IT ENCOUNTERS             
SUBSIDENCE OVER ONTARIO AND WRN NY SO WILL NOT CONSIDER WESTERN                 
CLOUDINESS MUCH IN TODAY'S FORECAST.                                            
THEN...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NRN PLAINS AND             
ITS HUGE CIRCULATION COVERING THE MISS VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES.                
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND SLOWLY               
FILL...WITH A 500 MB HT OF 556 OVR LK SUPERIOR WED MORNING AND 566              
OVER NRN NEW ENG BY FRIDAY. AS IN THE LAST EVENT...SEVERAL SHORT                
WAVES OR FRONTS WILL SWING AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS EAST AND             
WE WILL CONTEND WITH A FEW OF THEM.                                             
THE FIRST WILL BE A WARM FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS            
SRN MICH AND SRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY               
EDGE AS CLOSE AS YYZ OR SO BY DUSK TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHC LATER              
TONIGHT FROM GEN VALLEY WESTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT ON THE MARK            
AND WILL NOT CHANGE. WED FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE WITH ETA AND               
GFS IN SHARP DISAGREEMENT. GFS SHOWS A SUSPICIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE              
OF OMEGA RACING ACROSS WRN COUNTIES IN MORNING THEN A DRY AND WARMER            
AFTERNOON...WITH 850S SOARING TO 16-17C (M80S?). ETA ON THE OTHER               
HAND IS SLOWER AND MORE DEFINED WITH A FRONTAL TROF MOVING ACROSS               
WEST IN EARLY AFTERNOON AND EASTERN AREAS LATER IN DAY AND WED EVE.             
WILL LEAN TWD ETA AT THIS STAGE AND HOLD LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AND              
NOT PINPOINT TIMING WEST BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON EAST. WED WONT BE A               
WASHOUT THOUGH SO WILL ADD "FEW" DESIGNATOR. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS              
EAST WED NT AND BACK OFF WEST TO CHC.                                           
THURS WILL BE A BIT DRIER BUT NOT TOTALLY SO. WE SHOULD BE UNDER                
SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION ALOFT AS MAIN SFC FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR                 
EAST...WILL GO WITH PTLY-MSTLY CLDY AND 30 POPS WEST...40 POPS EAST.            
850'S OF 10-12C SUPPORT M-U70S WEST BUT L 80S EAST. MAIN AXIS OF                
UPPER LOW PASSES BY OUR AREA LATER THURS/THURS NT...SO WILL HOLD CHC            
POPS EAST THURS NT...DRY WEST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY FRI-SUN              
PER HPC GRAPHICS AND NEW 00Z MRF AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF             
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AFTER A COOL START ON FRI. 850MB TEMPS             
OF 16C SAT AND 18C SUN SUPPORT M-U80S AND CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS             
THAT. FRONT MAY DROP DOWN SUN NT OR MON...CHC POPS THEN.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRODUCING                      
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH IFR TO MVFR                   
CONDITIONS COMMON FROM KROC TO KART. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL NORTH              
TO SOUTH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE               
SURFACE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. BY 18Z THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE VFR                
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN DECKS AROUND 4K FT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER            
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST              
FROM A LOW OVER IOWA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN               
KIAG AND KBUF AROUND 03Z...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT VFR                
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DJF/SFM                                                       
AVIATION...TJP                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1001 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
OBVIOUSLY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL SURROUND THE                
EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE                    
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DIURNAL             
COOLING CYCLE IS RESULTING IN A RAPIDLY STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE OVER             
THE GREAT TENN VALLEY AND WESTERN NC. MEANWHILE...EVENING U/A                   
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MCS WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER SHEAR AND                 
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS AS IT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK.                       
THEREFORE...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THIS MCS OVER               
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INDEED...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED             
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 00Z ACROSS EAST TENN AND NORTHERN ALA...AND THE             
LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE W/ TIME ON               
REGIONAL RADAR. NEVERTHELESS...THE TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP AREA              
LOOKS QUITE FORMIDABLE...AND CONSIDERING THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF               
THE PRECIP IS ONLY AN HOUR OR 2 AWAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE               
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE GA MNTNS AND FAR WESTERN NC MNTNS.                    
OTHERWISE...WILL EXTEND HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE INTO               
THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING TO A LOW CHANCE TOWARD THE NC              
FOOTHILLS AND UPSTATE I-26 CORRIDOR. ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL                   
INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.                      
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED TO THE ZFP AT THIS                   
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                    
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR APPROACHING CONVECTION.                   
RUC AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAKLY CAPPED CONDITIONS OVER THE               
CWA ATTM. HOWEVER...CAPES APPROACHING 3K J/JG EXIST JUST OVER THE               
STATE LINE INTO GA AND TN. CLUSTERS OF SH/TS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN              
THE UNSTABLE AIR...MOVING SLOWLY EAST. MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE                 
ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH QPF                    
STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS. RIDGELINE ENHANCE CU EVIDENT ON            
THE SATELLITE AND WOULD EXPECT ISO/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS BY              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE ADVECTING SH/TS AND LOCAL                      
DEVELOPMENT WILL FORECAST SCT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISO EAST.             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK                             
PVA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO                
L90S OVER UPPER 60S DWPTS. MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES                
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FA BY 21Z WED. SFC                  
TRIGGERS WILL BE LIMITED TO RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE AND LEE SIDE                   
TROF...HOWEVER...ATMOS WILL SHOULD NOT HAVE AS STRONG AS A CAP AS               
TODAY. WILL FORECAST CHC COVERAGE WILL FAVOR GIVEN TO THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN.                                                                        
THU...I WILL FOLLOW MORE OF THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOTION OF THE ETA FOR            
DETAILS. WITH THE TROF AXIS ROTATING OVERHEAD AND WEAK WESTERN                  
UPSLOPE I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CHCS                  
SHOULD SHIFT EAST THU AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD                    
FRONT...WILL ADD DETAILS TO THE GRIDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRI. LIGHT RETURN FLOW SHOULD                 
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE NC MTNS TO INCREASE INSTABILITY BY               
FRI PM...WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.                                   
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO W ATLANTIC...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILD OVER REGION FOR SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
REMAINS HIGH...HOWEVER AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH             
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESP OVER MTNS.            
ANY SHORTWAVES THAT TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE             
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS BUT CONVECTION IS                  
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MTNS AND ISOLD ELSEWHERE INTO               
THIS EVE. HAVE INCLUDED CB CLOUD TYPES IN TAFS THIS EVE TO INDICATE             
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW BUILDUPS...BUT NO VCTS OR TEMPO               
GROUPS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE             
AREA OVERNIGHT SO PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...ESP IN LOW LYING                 
AREAS NEAR WATER AND HAVE INCLUDED EARLY MORNING MVFR VISIBILITY AT             
KAVL AND AT KAND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LANE                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                   
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR APPROACHING CONVECTION.                   
RUC AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAKLY CAPPED CONDITIONS OVER THE               
CWA ATTM. HOWEVER...CAPES APPROACHING 3K J/JG EXIST JUST OVER THE               
STATE LINE INTO GA AND TN. CLUSTERS OF SH/TS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN              
THE UNSTABLE AIR...MOVING SLOWLY EAST. MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE                 
ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH QPF                    
STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS. RIDGELINE ENHANCE CU EVIDENT ON            
THE SATELLITE AND WOULD EXPECT ISO/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS BY              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE ADVECTING SH/TS AND LOCAL                      
DEVELOPMENT WILL FORECAST SCT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISO EAST.             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK                             
PVA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO                
L90S OVER UPPER 60S DWPTS. MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES                
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FA BY 21Z WED. SFC                  
TRIGGERS WILL BE LIMITED TO RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE AND LEE SIDE                   
TROF...HOWEVER...ATMOS WILL SHOULD NOT HAVE AS STRONG AS A CAP AS               
TODAY. WILL FORECAST CHC COVERAGE WILL FAVOR GIVEN TO THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN.                                                                        
THU...I WILL FOLLOW MORE OF THE SLOWER FRONTAL MOTION OF THE ETA FOR            
DETAILS. WITH THE TROF AXIS ROTATING OVERHEAD AND WEAK WESTERN                  
UPSLOPE I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CHCS                  
SHOULD SHIFT EAST THU AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD                    
FRONT...WILL ADD DETAILS TO THE GRIDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE             
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRI. LIGHT RETURN FLOW SHOULD                 
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE NC MTNS TO INCREASE INSTABILITY BY               
FRI PM...WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO W ATLANTIC...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILD OVER REGION FOR SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
REMAINS HIGH...HOWEVER AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH             
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESP OVER MTNS.            
ANY SHORTWAVES THAT TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE             
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS BUT CONVECTION IS                  
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MTNS AND ISOLD ELSEWHERE INTO               
THIS EVE. HAVE INCLUDED CB CLOUD TYPES IN TAFS THIS EVE TO INDICATE             
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW BUILDUPS...BUT NO VCTS OR TEMPO               
GROUPS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE             
AREA OVERNIGHT SO PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...ESP IN LOW LYING                 
AREAS NEAR WATER AND HAVE INCLUDED EARLY MORNING MVFR VISIBILITY AT             
KAVL AND AT KAND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NED                                                                
LONG TERM...RAB                                                                 
AVIATION...RAB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1000 AM MDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE PATCHY FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MRNG LEAVING PTLY TO               
MOSTLY CLDY SKIES ACROSS AREA. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE              
AREA THIS AFTN AND SHOULD SEE SKIES PTLY CLDY ACROSS THE CWA. SFC HI            
OVERHEAD WL KEEP WINDS LT. WEAK S/W IN MT COULD BRING A FEW SHWRS TO            
NE WY AND THE HILLS. KUNR SOUNDING FROM THIS MRNG SHOWED A LTL                  
INVERSION AROUND H70 AND ETA AND NEW RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING              
THIS AROUND THRU THE DAY...SO WL KEEP OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR                
NOW. WL UPDATE ZNS TO TAKE OUT MRNG WORDING AND TO LWR TEMPS A FEW              
DEG...ESP ERN ZNS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
925 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.920 PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                    
THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL            
OKLAHOMA INTO FOARD COUNTY TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS THAN                 
EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA...PROBABLY DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY...BEHIND A WEAK SHORT            
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT HAS MOVED ESE INTO LOUISIANA.                            
DIV Q DIAGNOSIS INDICATES THAT SOME LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA              
TONIGHT...MAINLY THROUGH OKLAHOMA. LIFT FURTHER SOUTH (NORTH TEXAS)             
IS VERY WEAK...AND MAINLY IN THE 1000-805 MB LAYER...WITH SUBSIDENCE            
ABOVE. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INITIATE               
SOMETHING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT (AND MESOSCALE             
LIFT NEAR THE FRONT) ARE A BIT STRONGER. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALL           
OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP FORECASTS...AND PROBABLY NOT VERY                    
RELIABLE. WE WILL REDO THE GRIDS FOR THE PRECIP FORECASTS...STICKING            
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.                                                             
THE MESOETA IS BULLISH ON A WEAK MCS FORMING NEAR THE RED RIVER BY              
06Z AND MOVING IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE RUC SHOWS LESS ACTIVITY              
AND WE PREFER IT AT THIS TIME...THUS THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE                   
NIGHT.  WE WILL UPDATE AGAIN BEFORE LEAVING...IF NEEDED.  #26                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR MOST OF TONIGHT...AND AFTER LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL            
EXPECTING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER SW OKLAHOMA TONIGHT              
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING NORTHERN            
KDFW TRACON BY DAYBREAK.  UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT KACT AT              
ALL...HOWEVER...KACT SHOULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS                    
09-14Z.  75                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
310 PM.                                                                         
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A MORNING MCS TO MOVE ACROSS                 
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. AFTER TOMORROW...HOWEVER...RIDGE BUILDS              
IN STRONGER AND ANY POPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS SEA            
BREEZE CONVECTION MOVES NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY               
CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...BUT NO 100S EXPECTED FOR AT              
LEAST A WEEK. MID 90S IN MID JULY IS JUST ABOUT CLIMO...SO PRETTY               
MUCH AN AVERAGE WEEK EXPECTED.    84                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...                                                      
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX    75  92  75  94 /  30  30  20   0                        
WACO, TX                73  95  73  94 /  20  10   0   0                        
PARIS, TX               71  90  71  93 /  30  30  20   0                        
DENTON, TX              72  92  72  94 /  30  30  20   0                        
MCKINNEY, TX            74  92  74  94 /  30  30  20   0                        
DALLAS, TX              75  92  75  94 /  30  30  20   0                        
TERRELL, TX             73  92  73  93 /  30  30  20   0                        
CORSICANA, TX           73  93  73  94 /  20  10   0   0                        
TEMPLE, TX              72  95  72  95 /  20  10   0   0                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1050 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE INCREASED POPS TODAY TO CHANCE EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE             
I PUT SLIGHT CHANCE. BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS CWA INCREASING                  
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CELLS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER              
SUNSET AND THEN MCS POSSIBLE IN MORNING...MOST LIKELY METROPLEX AND             
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
SOME SCT-BKN016-020 AROUND N TEXAS THIS MORNING SO WILL HAVE TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.                          
ALSO...CONVECTION ACROSS OK LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO MOVE                  
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE AT 20 POP THIS               
MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.              
OTHERWISE...SOUTH FLOW NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE AND GUSTY            
IN AN NEAR STORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                             
AS WE FIGURED EARLIER...A FEW UPDATES IN STORE NOW THAT THE MCS IN              
OK IS ABOUT 2-3 HRS FROM ARRIVAL AT THE RED RIVER. IR IMAGERY DOES              
INDICATE SOME COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS...HOWEVER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF IT DESPITE VEERING OF LLJ...WHICH               
SHOULD CONT WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. THOUGH MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT             
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 13-14Z WITH SEVERE WX NOT            
EXPECTED...MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS BETTER THAN MODELS EARLIER                     
INDICATED. DESPITE NEW 06Z RUC/META RUNS IN...THEY STILL DON/T HAVE             
CLUE ON THE MESOSCALE AND ARE NOW MUCH SLOWER WITH MCS AT 12Z (TOO              
FAR NORTH/ALONG I-40 CORRIDOR) WHICH OBVIOUSLY ISN/T THE CASE. HAVE             
RAISED RED RIVER/NE ZONES TO AROUND THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE SWWD TO            
A BOWIE...DECATUR...D/FW...ATHENS LINE...THOUGH WITH AFOREMENTIONED             
TRENDS...CONFIDENCE DURING TRANSITION TIME TIME OF DAY ISN/T HIGH.              
EITHER WAY...A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT OVER NRN ZONES BY THIS                     
AFTN...THOUGH HOW MUCH AFFECT MCS/BLOW OFF HAS ON HEATING/WEAKENING             
THE CAP STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN FOR ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT.                    
ALSO...MAY TONE HIGHS DOWN A TAD NE ZONES. UPDATES OUT ASAP. 05/                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION                                                                
 255 AM...                                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COMPLEX FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE                    
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS CONTS DEEPENING WITH MORE OF AN AFFECT ON N TX               
NEXT 24-36 HRS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HELPING TO WEAKEN THE CAP            
THAT/S BEEN PROTECTING N TX FROM STORMS SINCE JULY 4TH WITH OUTFLOW             
FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING SE ACROSS NW OK ATTM. CAP STILL PRETTY HEFTY            
OVER N TX THIS MORNING AND ETA ALREADY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH CONVECTION            
AS 06Z. NW OK MCS SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-40              
IN CENTRAL OK TOWARDS 12Z...AS LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS ALONG WITH CAP             
IN PLACE. HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS THIS MORNING NW COUNTIES NEAR RED                
RIVER JUST IN CASE...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR ANY LAST MINUTE                  
ADJUSTMENTS AT ISSUANCE. AGREE WITH SPC THAT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY COULD SITUATE FROM ARKLATEX...THROUGH THE RED RIVER AREA               
AND BACK NW INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. MODELS                   
STRUGGLING AS USUAL TO RESOLVE THESE SUBTLE NW FLOW/SHORTWAVE                   
SCENARIOS...SO WILL PLAY BEST CHANCES WHERE STRONGER MID LVL                    
FLOW/PROPAGATION/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL TO RESIDE.                            
WE/RE CONTINUING PERSISTENCE FCST THAT CURRENT GREEN FOLIAGE/ GROUND            
MOISTURE AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM OK MCS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN               
FROM MOS VALUES SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS...PARTICULARLY NE 1/2 OF CWA.              
CAP MAY ERODE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VCNTY DUE TO DECAYING MCS FOR                 
ISOLD/SCT STORMS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL SUSPECT ON              
HOW MUCH CAP WILL ERODE. ONCE 25-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EXPECT            
MCS TO GET GOING SOMEWHERE OVER SW OK/NW TX WITH CORFIDI VECTORS                
PROPAGATING SYSTEM SEWD TOWARDS NAMELY AREAS ALONG/E OF I-35 AND                
ALONG/N OF I-20 BETWEEN 06Z-18Z WED WITH D/FW ON THE FRINGE SIMILAR             
TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. DRYING OUT MOST AREAS BY WED NIGHT/THURS                  
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE AFTN ACTIVITY FAR SE ZONES THURS AFTN.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
CURRENT FCST LEFT AS IS...WITH MINOR TWEAKS ON TEMPS/DEW PTS/WINDS.             
MRF 5-WAVE MID LVL HEIGHT PROG LOOKS TO AGREE WITH OPERATIONAL LONG             
RANGE MODELS ON ENHANCING THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LVL RIDGE USUALLY               
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL LOW END POPS SE                
WITH SE TX ACTIVITY...REST OF AREA TO REMAIN HOT...HUMID AND DRY.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...                                                      
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   93  76  91  77 /  20  20  30   0                         
WACO, TX               92  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0                         
PARIS, TX              91  74  89  74 /  20  30  40  20                         
DENTON, TX             93  74  91  74 /  20  30  40   0                         
MCKINNEY, TX           92  74  90  76 /  20  30  40  10                         
DALLAS, TX             93  76  91  77 /  20  20  30   0                         
TERRELL, TX            92  76  90  76 /  10  20  30  10                         
CORSICANA, TX          91  76  91  75 /   0   0  20   0                         
TEMPLE, TX             91  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0                         
&&                                                                              
05/                                                                             
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
631 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
SOME SCT-BKN016-020 AROUND N TEXAS THIS MORNING SO WILL HAVE TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.                          
ALSO...CONVECTION ACROSS OK LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO MOVE                  
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE AT 20 POP THIS               
MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.              
OTHERWISE...SOUTH FLOW NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE AND GUSTY            
IN AN NEAR STORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS WE FIGURED EARLIER...A FEW UPDATES IN STORE NOW THAT THE MCS IN              
OK IS ABOUT 2-3 HRS FROM ARRIVAL AT THE RED RIVER. IR IMAGERY DOES              
INDICATE SOME COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS...HOWEVER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF IT DESPITE VEERING OF LLJ...WHICH               
SHOULD CONT WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. THOUGH MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT             
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 13-14Z WITH SEVERE WX NOT            
EXPECTED...MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS BETTER THAN MODELS EARLIER                     
INDICATED. DESPITE NEW 06Z RUC/META RUNS IN...THEY STILL DON/T HAVE             
CLUE ON THE MESOSCALE AND ARE NOW MUCH SLOWER WITH MCS AT 12Z (TOO              
FAR NORTH/ALONG I-40 CORRIDOR) WHICH OBVIOUSLY ISN/T THE CASE. HAVE             
RAISED RED RIVER/NE ZONES TO AROUND THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE SWWD TO            
A BOWIE...DECATUR...D/FW...ATHENS LINE...THOUGH WITH AFOREMENTIONED             
TRENDS...CONFIDENCE DURING TRANSITION TIME TIME OF DAY ISN/T HIGH.              
EITHER WAY...A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT OVER NRN ZONES BY THIS                     
AFTN...THOUGH HOW MUCH AFFECT MCS/BLOW OFF HAS ON HEATING/WEAKENING             
THE CAP STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN FOR ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT.                    
ALSO...MAY TONE HIGHS DOWN A TAD NE ZONES. UPDATES OUT ASAP. 05/                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION                                                                
 255 AM...                                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COMPLEX FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE                    
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS CONTS DEEPENING WITH MORE OF AN AFFECT ON N TX               
NEXT 24-36 HRS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HELPING TO WEAKEN THE CAP            
THAT/S BEEN PROTECTING N TX FROM STORMS SINCE JULY 4TH WITH OUTFLOW             
FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING SE ACROSS NW OK ATTM. CAP STILL PRETTY HEFTY            
OVER N TX THIS MORNING AND ETA ALREADY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH CONVECTION            
AS 06Z. NW OK MCS SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-40              
IN CENTRAL OK TOWARDS 12Z...AS LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS ALONG WITH CAP             
IN PLACE. HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS THIS MORNING NW COUNTIES NEAR RED                
RIVER JUST IN CASE...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR ANY LAST MINUTE                  
ADJUSTMENTS AT ISSUANCE. AGREE WITH SPC THAT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY COULD SITUATE FROM ARKLATEX...THROUGH THE RED RIVER AREA               
AND BACK NW INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. MODELS                   
STRUGGLING AS USUAL TO RESOLVE THESE SUBTLE NW FLOW/SHORTWAVE                   
SCENARIOS...SO WILL PLAY BEST CHANCES WHERE STRONGER MID LVL                    
FLOW/PROPAGATION/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL TO RESIDE.                            
WE/RE CONTINUING PERSISTENCE FCST THAT CURRENT GREEN FOLIAGE/ GROUND            
MOISTURE AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM OK MCS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN               
FROM MOS VALUES SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS...PARTICULARLY NE 1/2 OF CWA.              
CAP MAY ERODE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VCNTY DUE TO DECAYING MCS FOR                 
ISOLD/SCT STORMS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL SUSPECT ON              
HOW MUCH CAP WILL ERODE. ONCE 25-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EXPECT            
MCS TO GET GOING SOMEWHERE OVER SW OK/NW TX WITH CORFIDI VECTORS                
PROPAGATING SYSTEM SEWD TOWARDS NAMELY AREAS ALONG/E OF I-35 AND                
ALONG/N OF I-20 BETWEEN 06Z-18Z WED WITH D/FW ON THE FRINGE SIMILAR             
TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. DRYING OUT MOST AREAS BY WED NIGHT/THURS                  
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE AFTN ACTIVITY FAR SE ZONES THURS AFTN.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
CURRENT FCST LEFT AS IS...WITH MINOR TWEAKS ON TEMPS/DEW PTS/WINDS.             
MRF 5-WAVE MID LVL HEIGHT PROG LOOKS TO AGREE WITH OPERATIONAL LONG             
RANGE MODELS ON ENHANCING THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LVL RIDGE USUALLY               
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL LOW END POPS SE                
WITH SE TX ACTIVITY...REST OF AREA TO REMAIN HOT...HUMID AND DRY.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...                                                      
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   93  76  91  77 /  20  20  30   0                         
WACO, TX               92  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0                         
PARIS, TX              91  74  89  74 /  20  30  40  20                         
DENTON, TX             93  74  91  74 /  20  30  40   0                         
MCKINNEY, TX           92  74  90  76 /  20  30  40  10                         
DALLAS, TX             93  76  91  77 /  20  20  30   0                         
TERRELL, TX            92  76  90  76 /  10  20  30  10                         
CORSICANA, TX          91  76  91  75 /   0   0  20   0                         
TEMPLE, TX             91  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0                         
&&                                                                              
05/                                                                             
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS WE FIGURED EARLIER...A FEW UPDATES IN STORE NOW THAT THE MCS IN              
OK IS ABOUT 2-3 HRS FROM ARRIVAL AT THE RED RIVER. IR IMAGERY DOES              
INDICATE SOME COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS...HOWEVER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF IT DESPITE VEERING OF LLJ...WHICH               
SHOULD CONT WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. THOUGH MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT             
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 13-14Z WITH SEVERE WX NOT            
EXPECTED...MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS BETTER THAN MODELS EARLIER                     
INDICATED. DESPITE NEW 06Z RUC/META RUNS IN...THEY STILL DON/T HAVE             
CLUE ON THE MESOSCALE AND ARE NOW MUCH SLOWER WITH MCS AT 12Z (TOO              
FAR NORTH/ALONG I-40 CORRIDOR) WHICH OBVIOUSLY ISN/T THE CASE. HAVE             
RAISED RED RIVER/NE ZONES TO AROUND THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE SWWD TO            
A BOWIE...DECATUR...D/FW...ATHENS LINE...THOUGH WITH AFOREMENTIONED             
TRENDS...CONFIDENCE DURING TRANSITION TIME TIME OF DAY ISN/T HIGH.              
EITHER WAY...A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT OVER NRN ZONES BY THIS                     
AFTN...THOUGH HOW MUCH AFFECT MCS/BLOW OFF HAS ON HEATING/WEAKENING             
THE CAP STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN FOR ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT.                    
ALSO...MAY TONE HIGHS DOWN A TAD NE ZONES. UPDATES OUT ASAP. 05/                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION                                                                
 255 AM...                                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COMPLEX FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE                    
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS CONTS DEEPENING WITH MORE OF AN AFFECT ON N TX               
NEXT 24-36 HRS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HELPING TO WEAKEN THE CAP            
THAT/S BEEN PROTECTING N TX FROM STORMS SINCE JULY 4TH WITH OUTFLOW             
FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING SE ACROSS NW OK ATTM. CAP STILL PRETTY HEFTY            
OVER N TX THIS MORNING AND ETA ALREADY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH CONVECTION            
AS 06Z. NW OK MCS SHOULD LOSE STEAM AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-40              
IN CENTRAL OK TOWARDS 12Z...AS LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS ALONG WITH CAP             
IN PLACE. HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS THIS MORNING NW COUNTIES NEAR RED                
RIVER JUST IN CASE...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR ANY LAST MINUTE                  
ADJUSTMENTS AT ISSUANCE. AGREE WITH SPC THAT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY COULD SITUATE FROM ARKLATEX...THROUGH THE RED RIVER AREA               
AND BACK NW INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. MODELS                   
STRUGGLING AS USUAL TO RESOLVE THESE SUBTLE NW FLOW/SHORTWAVE                   
SCENARIOS...SO WILL PLAY BEST CHANCES WHERE STRONGER MID LVL                    
FLOW/PROPAGATION/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL TO RESIDE.                            
WE/RE CONTINUING PERSISTENCE FCST THAT CURRENT GREEN FOLIAGE/ GROUND            
MOISTURE AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM OK MCS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN               
FROM MOS VALUES SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS...PARTICULARLY NE 1/2 OF CWA.              
CAP MAY ERODE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VCNTY DUE TO DECAYING MCS FOR                 
ISOLD/SCT STORMS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL SUSPECT ON              
HOW MUCH CAP WILL ERODE. ONCE 25-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS TONIGHT...EXPECT            
MCS TO GET GOING SOMEWHERE OVER SW OK/NW TX WITH CORFIDI VECTORS                
PROPAGATING SYSTEM SEWD TOWARDS NAMELY AREAS ALONG/E OF I-35 AND                
ALONG/N OF I-20 BETWEEN 06Z-18Z WED WITH D/FW ON THE FRINGE SIMILAR             
TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. DRYING OUT MOST AREAS BY WED NIGHT/THURS                  
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE AFTN ACTIVITY FAR SE ZONES THURS AFTN.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
CURRENT FCST LEFT AS IS...WITH MINOR TWEAKS ON TEMPS/DEW PTS/WINDS.             
MRF 5-WAVE MID LVL HEIGHT PROG LOOKS TO AGREE WITH OPERATIONAL LONG             
RANGE MODELS ON ENHANCING THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LVL RIDGE USUALLY               
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR. OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL LOW END POPS SE                
WITH SE TX ACTIVITY...REST OF AREA TO REMAIN HOT...HUMID AND DRY.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...                                                      
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   93  76  91  77 /  20  20  30   0                         
WACO, TX               92  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0                         
PARIS, TX              91  74  89  74 /  20  30  40  20                         
DENTON, TX             93  74  91  74 /  20  30  40   0                         
MCKINNEY, TX           92  74  90  76 /  20  30  40  10                         
DALLAS, TX             93  76  91  77 /  20  20  30   0                         
TERRELL, TX            92  76  90  76 /  10  20  30  10                         
CORSICANA, TX          91  76  91  75 /   0   0  20   0                         
TEMPLE, TX             91  76  93  75 /   0   0  10   0                         
&&                                                                              
05/                                                                             
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY                                                    
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND            
THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN      
WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS.                          
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST              
MN WHILE CENTER OF SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW ULM IN SOUTH                
CENTRAL MN. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI THROUGH SOUTH              
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN...INTO NORTHEAST IA. TEMPERATURES THIS                 
AFTERNOON WERE UNSEASONABLY COOL UNDER THE UPPER LOW/CLOUDS/AND                 
SHOWERS....RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.                     
12Z 06JUL04 RUN OF GFS AND ETA HAVE BOTH MODELS INITIALIZING VERY               
WELL BUT THEN DIVERGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HANDLING OF            
INCOMING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QPF. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE             
TWO MODELS FOR NOW IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME.                 
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES           
AROUND 6C/KM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE             
AREA TONIGHT.                                                                   
FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL CYCLONIC                
FLOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. WITH                  
850-500MB LAPSE RATES HOVERING AROUND 6C/KM...EXPECT AN ABUNDANCE OF            
CUMULUS WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SHOWER OR TWO. WILL CARRY 20-30                
CHANCE OF SHRA IN GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO             
REMAIN VERY COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S.                               
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS UPPER AND            
SURFACE RIDGE BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD            
OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG GOING LATE              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY             
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL ALONG WITH GOOD                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                            
SURFACE HIGH BUDGES EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY THURSDAY              
EVENING. BOTH GFS AND ETA DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN                    
NEBRASKA FRIDAY. ETA SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED WARM FRONT                   
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS IA INTO CENTRAL IL BY 06Z WITH                    
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS A RESULT...ETA DEVELOPS AN              
MCS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI BY FRI                
12Z. GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING WEST OF OUR AREA...CONCENTRATING MOST OF              
QPF ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH                
KFSD. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE ETA WITH             
SLIGHTLY BETTER RESOLUTION.                                                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
ENSEMBLES OF ECMWF/GFS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING OF THE            
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PUSHES MAIN            
JET UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE              
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHRA/TS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST        
HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT THEN HANGS UP ACROSS THE AREA                  
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHRA/TS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE             
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGS A ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION                   
SHRA/TS ON MONDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...DRAGGING ANOTHER            
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SHRA/TS                 
ACTIVITY. ALL IN ALL...SEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN TO DEAL WITH FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST.                 
THERE ARE TWO SURFACE LOWS IN THE VICINITY...ONE CENTERED JUST EAST             
OF KOSH...THE SECOND JUST NORTH OF KMWM AT 17Z.  AN OCCLUSION                   
EXTENDS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH TROUGHS EXTENDING                     
SOUTHWEST FROM EACH SURFACE FEATURE.  THEREFORE...THERE IS AN ARRAY             
OF WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE TWEB ROUTES.                                      
THE DEV RUC RUN AT 06/12Z BRINGS IN CEILINGS OF 100 FEET FOR MUCH OF            
THE AREA...WITH 500 FEET IN THE VALLEYS WITH NO VISIBILITY                      
RESTRICTION AFTER 04Z.  GFS AND NGM MOS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH              
THIS BUT DO SUGGEST A FOG VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.  PRECIPITATION ALSO           
A PROBLEM TONIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF THE SECONDARY SURFACE                
FEATURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                    
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING TO GENERATE            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 21-03Z. THIS              
IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE ETA20 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF THUNDER OF            
70 PERCENT.                                                                     
THEREFORE...WILL LOWER CEILING FORECASTS FROM 06Z-14Z AND WILL                  
INTRODUCE A MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.  WILL ALSO ADD SOME CB INTO            
THE EVENING.                                                                    
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING LOW               
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA /ALSO SHOWN BY ETA20 TIME HEIGHT CROSS                     
SECTIONS/.                                                                      
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ARX...WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...                                            
IA...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DAS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
407 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.                 
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER LAKE HURON...AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR ASHLAND WI...ANOTHER               
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MT...AND THEN AN UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.            
TWO SHRTWVS TO NOTE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW NEAR ASHLAND: ONE WAS             
OVER SE MN AND ANOTHER OVER SW MN. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER                
LOW...A DRY SLOT WAS EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN              
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS DRY SLOT HAS AIDED IN REDUCING MUCH OF              
THE RAIN THAT HAD OCCURRED YESTERDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING TO                 
DRIZZLE. MORE RAIN IS TO THE WEST...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING                
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN...NW WI...AND THE FAR WESTERN U.P..THIS              
AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF A BROAD               
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED FROM EASTERN WI TO NORTHERN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM             
NORTH DAKOTA TO KANSAS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG              
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW             
PRESSURE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL HERE AT THE OFFICE AND                 
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY WAS 51             
FOR THE OFFICE...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL LOW AND BROKE              
THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 55. SEE ARBRERMQT. ANOTHER                   
INTERESTING TID BIT OF INFO...LOOKING AT THE OBSERVED MAX/MIN PLOT              
OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR YESTERDAY...YOU HAVE TO GO NORTH TO THE                  
ARCTIC CIRCLE TO FIND A SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURE.                               
THROUGH 12Z FRI...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE 500MB UPPER LOW OVER             
ASHLAND WI...THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE ETA FOR DETAILS. MAIN THING              
TO NOTE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON               
THE MOVEMENT OF THAT UPPER LOW...WHICH DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF QPF              
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.                                   
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER SE MN HEADS TO CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 12Z AND THEN             
MERGES WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THIS UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES SLOWLY            
TO THE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON AND RIDGING BUILDING               
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF IT LOCATED OVER GRAND ISLAND             
AT 00Z. MEANWHILE THE SE MN SHRTWV HELPS PUSH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW             
PRESSURE EASTWARD...WITH THE LOWEST PRESSURE FOUND NEAR SSM. WITH NO            
REAL SIGNS OF ANYTHING THAT CAN DIMINISH THE RAIN IN THE COLD                   
CONVEYOR BELT...EVERYTHING BASICALLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH THE               
UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...EXPECTING THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN             
MN...NW WI AND FAR WESTERN UPPER MI TO COVER THE WEST HALF OF THE               
U.P. (EXCLUDING DICKINSON COUNTY) BY 12Z AND OVER THE REST OF THE               
U.P. BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. WITH TOTAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AROUND...             
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN U.P....ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY IS IN            
STORE. LOW TO MID 50S LOOK GOOD FOR THE WEST HALF (COOLEST TEMPS                
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. DUE TO UPSLOPE COOLING) AND 55 TO 60                
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE LESS RAIN WILL BE FALLING AND SOME                 
MINOR SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. RECORD LOW HIGH             
TEMPERATURE OF 59 IS IN JEOPARDY.                                               
TONIGHT...CENTER OF UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF TO DRUMMOND ISLAND BY 12Z              
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE             
RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN U.P....BUT EXPECT LIGHT               
RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE GOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.            
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND CLOSENESS TO COLD CONVEYOR                  
BELT/UPPER LOW. MIN TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN HIGHS GIVEN             
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.                                                   
THURSDAY...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES BUILD IN TOWARDS UPPER                      
MI...THOUGH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BY 00Z...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS            
IS LOCATED OVER MN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.P..                
WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON LONGER OVER THE                  
CWA...THEREFORE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE CUT HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES...AND IF THE UPPER LOW SLOWS DOWN EVEN             
MORE...WILL HAVE TO CUT THESE EVEN MORE. TEMPS MAY NOT GET ABOVE 60             
AGAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING               
COOL AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 60 FOR               
THE OFFICE...ANOTHER ONE THAT COULD FALL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG              
STILL LOOKS GOOD IN THE MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.                
UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.                                      
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE              
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP              
NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE              
NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS            
(GENERALLY AROUND 50). GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCLUDING A                  
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                   
FRIDAY...GFS/ETA/UKMET ALL INDICATE AN MCS FORMING OVER THE PLAINS              
THU NIGHT AND THEN HEADING TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI ON FRI. THIS SEEMS            
REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET INTERCEPTS THE WARM FRONT              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER GOODLAND. NORTHERN EDGE            
OF THE MCS\S PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY IMPACT WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN              
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE U.P. WILL BE                  
DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER             
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12C...SHOULD SEE                 
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL.                                                         
BEYOND FRIDAY...SUMMER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES WESTWARD                  
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP THE RING-OF-FIRE PATTERN...WHICH THE GFS AND             
EVEN THE ECMWF SHOW BY FIRING OFF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FROM THE               
COLORADO/NEBRASKA AREA TO WISCONSIN...THEN DIVING DOWN TO THE                   
APPALACHIANS. WHERE EXACTLY THESE FORM AND MOVE IS STILL                        
UNCERTAIN...SO NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
405 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPR LOW CONT TO SIT OVR NRN WI AS VORT ENERGY CONT TO FUJIWHARA                 
AROUND IT. WV PIX SHOW THE STRONGEST VORT ROTATING THRU NRN IA AND              
ANOTHER IN NERN ND ON ITS WAY DOWN. THESE TWO WILL PRETTY MUCH                  
ANCHOR THE UPR LOW IN PLACE...WITH ONLY SLOW LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST              
AS THE STRONGER VORT OVR NRN IA MOVS EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER                
MID/UPR CONV-Q VECTORS SPREADING OVR CWA NOW AND THIS IS CHEWING UP             
WHAT ONCE WAS A LARGE AREA OF -RA. NOW JUST SCT/ISO -SHRA AND                   
-DZ...AND WILL PLAY THIS CARD IN ERN CWA THRU MORNING AS LL MOISTURE            
IS THICK AND LOCKED IN PLACE. WL SEE EROSION IN WRN CWA THIS MORNING            
AND ACRS MUCH OF MN CWA IN AFTN AS SFC HI PRES AND S/W RIDGING BEGIN            
TO MOV INTO MN. TEMPS TDY VRY COOL AGAIN...AND BASED MAX TEMPS ON               
LIMITED MIXING OF ETA H9 TEMPS TO SFC. AS EXPECTED...CU RULES ARE               
VRY HIGH...AND ANY HOLES WILL FILL QUICKLY WITH CU/SC. INSTABILITY              
BEGINS TO RETURN OUT IN THE DAKS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND AHEAD OF               
POTENT TROF DROPPING INTO NRN ROCKIES.                                          
TONIGHT...CU/SC SHOULD DISSIPATE UNDER CONT SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC HI              
CROSSING CWA. ANOTHER VRY COOL NIGHT...WITH LIKELY SOME MID/UPR 40S             
IN WRN WI. WITH RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE...SITN LOOKING BETTER AND                  
BETTER FOR SOME PRETTY SIG FOG...ESP UNDER SFC RIDGE. NOTE KABR/KJMS            
VSBYS BLO 1/4SM NOW UNDER SAID RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. BROUGHT ERN               
1/2 OF CWA INTO AREAS OF F+ AFT MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH SUPPORT FM UPS               
FOG SCHEMES VIA 00Z ETA BUFR DATA. SHOULD SEE 2 MCS'S TONIGHT...ONE             
IN IA/MO IN STRONG WAA REGIME DOWN THERE...AND IN ND IN AS STORMS               
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FEED ON LL MOISTURE FLUX ON SLY FLOW.                 
NEITHER SHOULD AFFECT CWA.                                                      
THUR/THUR NIGHT...CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF VERY RAPIDLY AS THUR                     
PROGRESSES. ETA NOW FOCUSING BEST RETURN OF LL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY             
IN ERN NEB AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND IMPRESSIVE LO 70S TD'S ADVECT             
NWRD. UPR TROF CONT TO SLIDE EAST INTO NRN ROCKIES PLACING MUCH OF              
NRN MIDWEST IN FAST WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK S/W ENERGY                  
ZIPPING THRU FLOW. VRY DRY AIR IN MID LVLS ADVECTS OFF THE FRONT                
RANGE ON SWLY FLOW ATOP SURGING LOW LVL MOISTURE FIELD. SETS UP A               
VRY UNSTABLE ATMS BY 00Z FRI ACRS SD/NEB/SWRN MN/IA. CAN'T IGNORE               
CAP THAT ALLOWS THIS INSTABILITY...WITH H7 TEMPS OVR NEB INTO +12 TO            
+14 RANGE. STRONG WAA REGIME WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY ACRS DAKS/MN              
AS REMNANTS OF ND MCS LIKELY WL CONT TO PROP E-SE TWRD ERN SD/WRN MN            
BY AFTN. MDLS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE DETAILS...BUT FIGURE ONE OF             
TWO SCENARIOS OCCUR. THE FIRST BEING THAT STRONG HEATING COMBINED               
WITH ~75 TD'S IN NERN NEB JUST BLAST THRU CAP AND BECOME THE                    
DOMINANT SHOW...SLOWING MOISTURE FEED/LLJ AS BIG MCS MOVS SOUTHEAST             
THRU WRN IA INTO NRN MO. THIS IS THE ETA SCENARIO. PBLM WITH THIS IS            
YOU DON'T SEE +12C AT H7 YIELDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHOUT A               
STRONG S/W...AND WITH MUCH OF THE S/W ENERGY/JET WL UP INTO THE                 
DAKS...WONDER IF ETA MAY BE CONVECTING TOO FAR SOUTH. SECOND                    
SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT NEB REMAINS CAPPED...AND LLJ REVS UP AND                 
TAKES ND MCS REMNANTS AND BLOSSOMS MCS IN ERN SD WHICH RIDES EDGE OF            
CAP INTO SRN MN/NRN IA. THIS SUPPORTED BY GFS/UKMET/FSL 48 HR RUC               
AND ESPECIALLY NCEP SREFS...WITH HIGHEST PROBS OVR ERN SD/WRN MN.               
EVEN IF FIRST SCENARIO UNFOLDS...ETA STILL HINTING THAT VRY LATE                
NIGHT TSRAS WL CROSS CWA...SO WILL KEEP POPS AS THEY ARE AND WAIT. I            
DO FIND IT INTERESTING THAT DESPITE THE NEB/IA CONVECTION THUR                  
EVE...ETA STILL (AND FOR MANY RUNS NOW) HAS KEPT THE STRONGEST DIFF             
TEMP AND DIFF THETA E ADV OVR CNTL/ERN MN...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE              
UPPED.                                                                          
AFTER THIS EVENT...ALL BETS ARE OFF AS CWA SITS ON EDGE OF CAP AND              
OUTFLOWS AND WEAK S/W'S WILL DETERMINE MCS AND TSRA INITIATION.                 
PRUDENT TO KEEP POPS IN MOST/ALL PDS AS ATMS ONLY BECOMES MORE AND              
MORE UNSTABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS AND VRY MOIST AIR FLOWS NORTH                     
UNDERNEATH IT. RIDGE RIDERS/NOCUTURNAL MCS'S APPEAR PSBL FOR A WAYS             
INTO THE FUTURE. FINALLY LOOKING LIKE JULY IN MN!!                              
LOOKING AHEAD...SAT THROUGH TUE...                                              
THE LATEST 00Z GFS SHOWS WARM THICKNESS RIDGE OVER UPPER MIDWEST.               
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR OVER MUCH OF               
THE CWA ALONG WITH HIT AND RUN CONVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE                   
THERMAL RIDGE.                                                                  
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU/WFO MPX                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
515 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BASED ON RUC 500MB FLOW...COMPLEX OVER TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO                 
TRACK SOUTHEAST. ETA SHOWED THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENING AND NEVER                 
BEING A FACTOR FOR THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS WERE STARTING TO MOVE INTO            
WEST AR...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE REMNANTS APPROACH THE                
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND...SUNSHINE                
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A FEW                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AGAIN THIS            
MORNING...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP            
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF               
THE AREA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE THROUGH CWA. MODELS SHOW THE                
FRONT BECOMING ORIENTED EAST-WEST AND EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST...AS               
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST AROUND                 
SATURDAY. TODAY EXPECT MORE SEABREEZE ACTION SOUTH AND SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS CENTRAL AND NORTH.               
MODEL PW VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LI                
VALUES FROM -6 TO -8. THE ETA/GFS ARE DIFFERENT FOR THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS...SO TRIED TO GO WITH A BLEND. GFS KEEPS MOISTURE AND                      
PRECIP...MAINLY SOUTH STILL WITH NO WELL DEFINED FEATURES FOR                   
DEVELOPMENT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED FEATURE NOW SHOWING UP             
ON THE GFS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT WILL BE COME OF THIS. FOR NOW               
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THUR/FRI AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WEEKEND.              
EVEN WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND...WILL NOT JUMP ON RAIN EVERYDAY              
FOR THE SOUTH. THE ETA SHOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US                    
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE OVER            
THE SOUTHEAST US SHIFTING WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ETA SHOWS 850              
JET INCREASING WITH ITS INVERTED FEATURE OVER LA...WHILE THE UPPER              
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK WITH THE GFS. AGAIN NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK              
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO            
THE EXTENDED. LOWERED THE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT SURE IF                   
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE BY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS NEVER               
REALLY GOT HIGHER THAN 18C...SO DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS HIGHER THAN THE             
LOWER 90S. ALSO ADDED CLOUDS A FEW NIGHTS. OTHERWISE FORECAST WAS               
OK.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS                                                             
JAN TB 090/071 090/071 092 00533                                                
MEI BB 091/070 091/070 092 00433                                                
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
345 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AT 06Z...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN MI...SW INTO FAR NWRN             
IN...THEN IT TRAILED INTO IL...AND SRN MO.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE                
SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST...BEING LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY 06Z              
THURSDAY.                                                                       
KILN AND KIND RADARS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED            
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING GENERATED BY A VORT MAX                 
LOCATED OVER SWRN KENTUCKY.  RUC40 TAKES THIS VORT MAX ENE TOWARD               
PMH BY 15Z...THEN INTO W VA BY 18Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIKELY                  
WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH             
THIS FEATURE.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE             
VORT MAX PASSES BY.  THEREAFTER...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS REGION REMAINS AHEAD              
OF COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE.                                     
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN OHIO/NRN KY              
AROUND 00Z...THEN EAST OF REGION BY 06Z.  ETA MODEL DEPICTS SOME                
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE              
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.                             
ON THURSDAY...COOL UPR TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND            
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  WITH LINGERING 850 MB MSTR...HAVE KEPT              
SKY FCST PARTLY CLOUDY.                                                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE ETA ISHINTING AT AN MCS OVER THE            
CNTRL PLAINS STATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE OHIO RIVER VLY.                 
THIS HAS BEEN THE FIRST RUN TO SHOW THIS (GFS SHOWS IT TOO...HOWEVER            
FARTHER SOUTH) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  SINCE IT IS SO HARD TO               
PINPOINT MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE            
CONDITIONS DRY ATTM AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE               
THIS SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...AN UPR LVL HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP             
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VLY OR SERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY                   
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS...ETA AND CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER ON               
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPR HIGH.  THE PLACEMENT WILL BE THE KEY              
TO WHETHER OUR REGION HAS VERY WARM TO HOT WX WITH A TYPICAL 30                 
PERCENT AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...OR WHETHER WE                  
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPR HIGH WHERE S/WVS RIDE ALONG...AND            
BRING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF MCS ACTIVITY.  WE SHALL SEE.                         
FOR TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY...STAYED CLOSED TO MAV VALUES.                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT JUL 6 2004                    
SHORT TERM(TNGT)...                                                             
I HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING FOR WATCHES WHICH HAVE BEEN                    
CANCELLED IN INDIANA AND EXPIRED IN KENTUCKY. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED              
FOR EVENING WORDING BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS THE SAME.                      
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
SHORT TERM(TNGT-THU NGT)...                                                     
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FRONT THROUGH AREA             
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION                  
APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO                
FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEEMS                
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CLEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY                        
THOUGHT. WITH 30 KNOT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED AT 850 MB TONIGHT THREAT             
FOR HIGH WINDS EXISTS. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH                   
SECONDARY TROF MOVING SLOWER WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE RAIN THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HI PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND            
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CURRENT                     
FORECAST.                                                                       
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
TAF SITES CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH ONE UP                 
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE OTHER DOWN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA             
AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AREA IN             
BETWEEN WILL FILL IN SOME THROUGH 12Z AS TROF AXIS APPROACHES OUR               
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY BY            
12Z SO THINK WE MAY END UP WITH MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS.                
THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE THUNDER AND INDICATED MORE            
OF A -SHRA CHANCE. TROF AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THIS                
MORNING SO EXPECT PCPN TO EXIT CMH AREA BY AROUND 15Z OR SO.                    
HOWEVER..WITH THE CHANCE OF A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE                
TIME FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...DID HANG ON TO TSRA IN THE CMH TAF FROM             
12Z TO TO 15Z.                                                                  
LOOKS LIKE REAL FRONT DOES NOT MOVE INTO AREA TIL THIS EVENING BUT              
AIRMASS FORECAST TO DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH            
THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH             
AS FRONT APPROACHES. THINK THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM              
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO THE ISOLATED CATEGORY SO DID NOT              
MENTION PCPN AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(FRI-MON)...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRIDAY AND IT APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER                  
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION             
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.  THEN...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE                 
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING NORTH AGAIN ON                     
TUESDAY...AND MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SEEMS TO BE A PRUDENT CHOICE.             
NOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH THE GIVEN SCENARIO...GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE                
INCREASED AGAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ...WITH             
MAINLY MID 80S FOR DAILY HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
335 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                   
WV IMAGERY SHOWS S/WV AXIS ROTATING ACRS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ATTM             
AND ETA/RUC FCSTS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE                  
PLACING CWFA WITHIN PVA REGION LATER TODAY. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES             
TO BE DISPLACED OFF TO THE EAST WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES              
DEVELOPING...ABOUT 25-30 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW. BEST LVLL CONVERGENCE             
TODAY DOES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH JUST OFF TO OUR                      
EAST...BUT ETA DOES PROG SOME DECENT IMMEDIATE LEE OR ESCARPMENT                
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. SO UNLESS DOWNSLOPE WINDS UP BEING ENUF             
TO SQUELCH DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH                
SCATTERED POP CWFA WIDE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK TO MODERATE                
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED NOTABLE SHEAR FOR JULY             
TO GIVE RISE TO SVR THREAT AS WELL.                                             
CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY               
ALTHOUGH BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY OFF TO OUR             
NORTH. TAIL END OF WEAK VORT AXIS DOES SWING THROUGH BUT BETTER                 
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE JUST SE OF CWFA WHERE SFC FRONT JUMPS                   
INTO LEE TROUGH POSITION DURING THE DAY. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
SWINGING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. ALLOWING UPPER HEIGHTS TO START                
TO RISE ONCE AGAIN THU NITE WITH SFC FRONT PROGGED TO BE STALLED                
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
A CONTINUED RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS RIDGING                  
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ACRS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. STILL                  
LOOKING AT LITTLE MOVEMENT TO DIFFUSE FRONT/BNDRY JUST OFF TO OUR               
SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST ACRS               
THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...RUNNING A GOOD            
6 TO 8 DEG ABOVE WHAT THEY WERE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...                
CI/AC FROM EARLIER MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMP/DWPT SPREAD              
HIGH IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO...THE ONLY TAF SITE TO SEE PCPN YDAY               
WAS ASHEVILLE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED FOG TO MVFR AT ANDERSON AND             
AVL. THINK THAT HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW                  
THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG               
FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENUF TO MAKE IT INTO THE AVL AIRPORT. &&               
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...CSH                                                                 
AVIATION...BPM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
110 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE SENT UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER PUBLIC FORECASTS...AS WELL AS THE             
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE              
NORTHWEST AND THE NEW SEVERE THUDNERSTORM WATCH THE INCLUDES THE                
NORTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 6 AM.                               
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
920 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004                                                       
THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL            
OKLAHOMA INTO FOARD COUNTY TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS THAN                 
EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA...PROBABLY DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY...BEHIND A WEAK SHORT            
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT HAS MOVED ESE INTO LOUISIANA.                            
DIV Q DIAGNOSIS INDICATES THAT SOME LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA              
TONIGHT...MAINLY THROUGH OKLAHOMA. LIFT FURTHER SOUTH (NORTH TEXAS)             
IS VERY WEAK...AND MAINLY IN THE 1000-805 MB LAYER...WITH SUBSIDENCE            
ABOVE. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INITIATE               
SOMETHING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT (AND MESOSCALE             
LIFT NEAR THE FRONT) ARE A BIT STRONGER. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALL           
OVER THE PLACE WITH PRECIP FORECASTS...AND PROBABLY NOT VERY                    
RELIABLE. WE WILL REDO THE GRIDS FOR THE PRECIP FORECASTS...STICKING            
TO LOW CHANCE POPS.                                                             
THE MESOETA IS BULLISH ON A WEAK MCS FORMING NEAR THE RED RIVER BY              
06Z AND MOVING IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE RUC SHOWS LESS ACTIVITY              
AND WE PREFER IT AT THIS TIME...THUS THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE                   
NIGHT.  WE WILL UPDATE AGAIN BEFORE LEAVING...IF NEEDED.  #26                   
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004 DISCUSSION                                            
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A MORNING MCS TO MOVE ACROSS                 
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. AFTER TOMORROW...HOWEVER...RIDGE BUILDS              
IN STRONGER AND ANY POPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS SEA            
BREEZE CONVECTION MOVES NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY               
CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...BUT NO 100S EXPECTED FOR AT              
LEAST A WEEK. MID 90S IN MID JULY IS JUST ABOUT CLIMO...SO PRETTY               
MUCH AN AVERAGE WEEK EXPECTED.    84                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   75  92  75  94 /  40  30  20   0                         
WACO, TX               73  92  73  94 /   0  10   0   0                         
PARIS, TX              71  90  71  93 /  30  30  20   0                         
DENTON, TX             71  92  72  94 /  50  30  20   0                         
MCKINNEY, TX           72  92  74  94 /  30  30  20   0                         
DALLAS, TX             75  92  75  94 /  30  30  20   0                         
TERRELL, TX            73  92  73  93 /  30  30  20   0                         
CORSICANA, TX          73  91  73  94 /   0  20   0   0                         
TEMPLE, TX             73  92  72  95 /   0  10   0   0                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 600 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES             
TXC093...TXC097...TXC133...TXC143...TXC237...TXC337...TXC363...                 
TXC367...TXC429...TXC497...TXC503.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
520 AM PDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE PACIFIC                      
NORTHWEST.  AFTER LOOKING AT SEVERAL MODELS THIS MORNING...HAVE                 
DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE               
NORTHERN SIERRA CREST THROUGH 5 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. ETA               
AND RUC MODELS ARE FORECAST CAPES BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z TO BE BETWEEN              
400 AND 500 J/KG.  WSETA INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  THE RUC AND             
ETA KEEPS THE 850-700 MB LAYER THETA-E RIDGE AXIS NEAR OUR                      
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING THROUGH 00Z. AND THE MESO-ETA STREAMLINE            
LINE FORECAST KEEPS THE DEFORMATION ZONE VERY CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHERN             
COUNTY WARNING AREA BORDER. AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG...THIS                
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TOWARD THE WEST AND REPLACE THE WARM AND                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER...AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS              
INTO ALL OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.  BASED ON CURRENT               
WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS LOCATED FROM NEAR POINT              
ARENA-CORNING-CHESTER LINE.  BASE ON CURRENT SPEED OF THE SOUTHERN              
EDGE OF DIVING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO EXIT OUR              
CWA AROUND 00Z.  SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT            
WILL END BY 5 PM AS THE WESTERLIES UNDER THE DIGGING TROF WILL HELP             
SHIFT THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA.            
THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF TASTE OF SUMMER              
HEAT.  ALL MODELS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALL              
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  850 TEMPS WILL DROP 12 DEGREES C OVER THE              
NEXT 84 HOURS.  THE STRONG HEIGHT FALL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR                
WILL RESULT IN THE MARINE LAYER BUILDING ALONG THE COAST TODAY.  THE            
UPVALLEY GRADIENT IS ALREADY MODERATE TO STRONG AT THIS TIME AND THE            
ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG.  WINDS ARE ALREADY HOWLING AT              
TRAVIS WITH GUST AROUND 40 MPH.  HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF                  
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER A PORTION OF OUR VALLEY AND DELTA REGION                
LATE TONIGHT AS HEIGHT OF MARINE LAYER MAY APPROACH 2500 TO 3000                
FEET BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL                     
REINFORCE THE TROF LATE THIS WEEK AND AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR               
MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.                     
THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE MAY BE A NEED TO ADD SOME POPS               
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEEPENS             
TROF.  BASED ON HISTORY OF SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN OF PAST                       
EVENTS...THINK MODELS TEND TO BE TOO DRY WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTIVE               
PRECIPITATION WITH A DIGGING TROF.  CURRENT MODELS DO DIFFER WITH               
STRENGTH OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE.  TIMING OF THESE WAVES ARE ALSO A            
PROBLEM THIS EARLY OUT.  BUT MODELS DO INDICATED SOME RELATIVELY                
STRONG JETS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THESE WAVES INCLUDING GOOD JET              
COUPLETS AND RELATIVELY STRONG JET CORES. GIVEN THE STRONG                      
SHORTWAVES...GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECTED SHEAR PROFILE...AND GOOD             
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL HEATING...THINK SOME POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE             
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST MODEL TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY IS               
THE LATEST MM5 RUN.  BASED ON THE TREND...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF             
WE SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE EXTENDED                  
PERIOD EVEN THOUGH MODELS SEEMS TO BE TOO DRY FOR FOR POPS THIS                 
WEEKEND.  HAVE MADE SOME MINOR BRUSHES ON THE GRIDS HINTING CHANGE              
BUT WILL KEEP WORDING DRY FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME              
TO STUDY THIS A LITTLE FURTHER.                                                 
THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE FOR MOST            
OF LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER PERIOD...SO HAVE TURNED TO USING AN             
OLD FORECASTING METHOD THAT HAVE WORK WELL OVER THE YEARS WHEN THE              
LONG WAVE PATTERN HAS BEEN AS AMPLIFIED AS IT HAS BEEN THIS YEAR.               
&&                                                                              
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
LAM                                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
928 AM MDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS            
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. ALSO BUMPED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S               
AREAWIDE. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER              
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CURVING NORTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST                    
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT CONNECTS WITH            
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN WYOMING...WHICH IS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO              
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC              
NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 00Z AMARILLO SOUNDING HAS SHOWN            
UP THIS MORNING AT DODGE CITY...AND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED            
WITH INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON           
ALONG AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT.  A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF CAN             
BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE AND IN RAOB AND PROFILER DATA FROM            
WYOMING. RIW SOUNDING HAS 60 KNOTS AT 600 MB. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD              
OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY SET OFF BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 20KM DEV RUC MODEL INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF STRONG             
LIFT AT 700MB THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND THE MODEL                 
BREAKS OUT PRECIPITATION. GIVEN A BREAKABLE CAP AND THE PRESENCE OF             
THE LIFT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VEERING                
WIND PROFILES ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED                        
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. WARM TEMPS                 
SHOULD PREVENT MOST LARGE HAIL FROM REACHING THE GROUND.                        
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 90S...EXPECTING A GOOD                    
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FROM FLAGLER TO HOXIE THIS                      
AFTERNOON. ETA SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOWER TO EVEN MID 90S...SO MAY HAVE            
TO UPDATE AGAIN IF TEMPS GET OUT OF CONTROL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED MID-UPR LVL             
LOW OVER WRN UPR MI WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE PINWHEELING                
AROUND LOW. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NNW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR                
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH SRN WI.                         
ASSOC DPVA AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE OVER ERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR ENHANCING UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE INTO NW AND NCNTRL               
COUNTIES OF THE CWA ATTM AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS LIFT AND ASSOC PCPN            
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT. THE REST OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY SRN              
COUNTIES) SHOULD SEE ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A CHC OF A LIGHT SHOWER             
FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT.              
THUS...ON UPDATE HAVE BACKED OFF TO CHC WORDING ON SHOWERS FOR IRON             
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES.                                                         
REST OF FCST ON TRACK IN REGARD TO TEMPS AND PCPN.                              
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TONIGHT...CENTER OF UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF TO DRUMMOND ISLAND BY 12Z              
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE             
RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN U.P....BUT EXPECT LIGHT               
RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE GOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.            
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND CLOSENESS TO COLD CONVEYOR                  
BELT/UPPER LOW. MIN TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN HIGHS GIVEN             
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.                                                   
THURSDAY...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES BUILD IN TOWARDS UPPER                      
MI...THOUGH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BY 00Z...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS            
IS LOCATED OVER MN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.P..                
WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON LONGER OVER THE                  
CWA...THEREFORE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE CUT HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES...AND IF THE UPPER LOW SLOWS DOWN EVEN             
MORE...WILL HAVE TO CUT THESE EVEN MORE. TEMPS MAY NOT GET ABOVE 60             
AGAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING               
COOL AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 60 FOR               
THE OFFICE...ANOTHER ONE THAT COULD FALL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG              
STILL LOOKS GOOD IN THE MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.                
UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.                                      
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE              
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP              
NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE              
NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS            
(GENERALLY AROUND 50). GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCLUDING A                  
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                   
FRIDAY...GFS/ETA/UKMET ALL INDICATE AN MCS FORMING OVER THE PLAINS              
THU NIGHT AND THEN HEADING TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI ON FRI. THIS SEEMS            
REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET INTERCEPTS THE WARM FRONT              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER GOODLAND. NORTHERN EDGE            
OF THE MCS\S PRECIPITATION FIELD MAY IMPACT WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN              
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE U.P. WILL BE                  
DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...BRINGING SUNSHINE AND WARMER             
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12C...SHOULD SEE                 
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL.                                                         
BEYOND FRIDAY...SUMMER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES WESTWARD                  
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP THE RING-OF-FIRE PATTERN...WHICH THE GFS AND             
EVEN THE ECMWF SHOW BY FIRING OFF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FROM THE               
COLORADO/NEBRASKA AREA TO WISCONSIN...THEN DIVING DOWN TO THE                   
APPALACHIANS. WHERE EXACTLY THESE FORM AND MOVE IS STILL                        
UNCERTAIN...SO NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                           
AJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
922 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE TROF AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE COMBINED TO FORM A                
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. TO ADDRESS THIS HAVE            
UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL WORDING. THIS CONVECTION               
LINES UP WELL WITH THE ETA AND RUC. WITH THE EXITING MCS OVER                   
OKLAHOMA THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN                 
NE/KS AND EASTERN CO.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION               
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER. OTHERWISE OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST                
UNCHANGED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE            
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE                 
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE OF SIGNIFICANCE. NOT ONLY WILL IT            
BE THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL PLAY A               
ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY                   
CONSISTENT WITH A LOCATION IN NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.              
ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LLJ AND IF THERE IS             
ENOUGH TIME TO GET WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE            
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN            
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                         
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THIS               
TIME THE WARM FRONT HAS DRIFTED FURTHER NORTH. WITH LOW PRESSURE TO             
THE WEST...WARM/MOIST AIR HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO GET INTO THE AREA.               
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE JUST A LITTLE                    
STRONGER. THE FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE AREA AND WEAKENED. MOISTURE              
HAS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF                         
PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WARM UP                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...              
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST AND AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.                                             
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER               
THE RIDGE BUT THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD              
BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS.                   
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LEWIS/JCB                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
957 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WARM FRONT ON LATEST OBS WAS EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.  BOTH THE RUC AND               
THE MESOETA SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH               
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN            
21Z AND 00Z.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL                  
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS                    
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  APPARENT WEAK MCV IN WATER                 
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN INDIANA AND PURE                    
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD MOVE THIS FEATURE THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS             
AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
WEAK MCV...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WESTERN                
GREAT LAKES...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD            
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  RUC FORECASTS STRONG LIFT OVER            
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST MESOETA ALSO                   
FORECASTS GOOD COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL                
DIVERGENCE AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF            
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD LAG BACK INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MESOETA CAPE FORECASTS PROVIDE FOR THE BEST INSTABILITY...WITH                  
VALUES OVER 1000J/KG...OVER EASTERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAZARD POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE HIGHEST                
WITH REGARD TO BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE K INDICES WILL BE IN              
THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE                
AROUND 1.75 INCHES.  ONE ASPECT OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IS               
THE INCREASE IN 850MB WINDS AROUND 21Z...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE             
TO 25-30KTS AS SHOWN ON BOTH THE RUC AND THE MESOETA.  WILL HAVE TO             
WATCH DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STORM WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR ISOLATED                
WIND POTENTIAL.                                                                 
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES HAVE REMAINED            
IN THE 60S WITH THE RAIN AND BEING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BRIEFLY            
CLEARING SKIES COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD QUICKLY.  READINGS IN             
MANY OTHER AREAS HAVE RISEN TO NEAR THE LOW END OF THE FORECAST                 
MAXES AND DO NOT PLAN TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH.  GIVEN THE AMPLE             
CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST HALF OF WESTERN NEW YORK...TEMPERATURES                 
SHOULD NOT RISE VERY QUICKLY...BUT A FEW THIN SPOTS ON VISIBLE                  
SATELLITE IMAGES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO COULD PUSH THE TEMPERATURE UP A            
FEW DEGREES IN SHORT ORDER IF THEY MOVE IN FOR A TIME.  ALL THIS                
SAID...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO REFRESH             
MORNING WORDING EASTERN ZONES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
CONVECTION FIRED ALONG WARM FRONT OVER ERN LK ERIE AROUND THE                   
MIDNIGHT HOUR AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED NW ACROSS SRN               
ONTARIO. NEVER TRUST A WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN NY AT NIGHT             
WITH A 70 DEG LK ERIE AND THIS HOLDING TRUE TO FORM. WILL COVER THIS            
ONGOING ACTIVITY IN NOWCASTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE MAY GET A BIT OF             
A BREAK NEAR DAYBREAK IN WEST BUT THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO LARGE                 
COMPLEX NEAR DTW-TOL AT 06Z. THIS MAY TEND TO LIFT NE ACROSS SRN                
ONTARIO BUT TIMING WOULD PLACE IT AT OUR DOORSTEP BTWN 11-13Z.                  
ON THE LARGER SCALE...HUGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM LK                   
SUPERIOR TODAY TO QUEBEC BY FRIDAY. A NUMBER OF UPPER TROF/SHORT                
WAVES WILL SWING AROUND THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF              
SHOWERS AND STORMS UPON THEIR APPROACH AND PASSAGE.                             
THE FIRST ONE WILL CROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL NY            
THIS EVENING. REAL SOUPY AIRMASS (TD'S 70+) WILL BE IN PLACE OVER               
OUR REGION FOLLOWING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. QUESTION IS             
EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT WITH APPROACH OF FIRST                
SHORT WAVE...EXPECT GREATEST RISK OF NEW ACTIVITY BEING LATE                    
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND LATER IN DAY EAST. SEVERE THREAT IS            
LIMITED DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUD LIMITING HEATING AND ASSOC CAPES. MID            
LEVEL WINDS ONLY ABOUT 30 KTS BUT THEY DO VEER. WOULD BE MORE                   
CONCERNED IF WE GET MUCH SUNSHINE AND THAT'S DOUBTFUL BUT NOT                   
IMPOSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL PLAY WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LOCAL DOWNPOURS            
WITH PW'S OVER 1.5 INCHES) AND WILL MENTION THIS IN ZONES.                      
INITIAL TROF AXIS PULLS EAST THIS EVENING BUT HANGS ON CLOSE ENOUGH             
TO KEEP CATEG POPS E OF LK ONT FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE                   
BACKING OFF TO CHC LATER. FURTHER WEST...GENERAL CHC POPS BUT ETA               
SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK S/W AROUND 06Z AND WITH WARM LK ERIE COULD EASILY            
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN WEE HOURS AGAIN. WILL BOOST POPS TO 60 TO             
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
THURS WILL BE A BIT DRIER BUT NEXT TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS REGION               
DURING AFTERNOON SO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATD SHWRS/TSTMS. A BIT             
COOLER ALOFT BUT 850'S DROP SLOWLY BUT STILL AT 14C IN EAST SO 80 A             
GOOD BET...M-U70S WEST. WILL RETAIN CHC POPS EAST ONLY THURS NT AS              
MAIN TROF FINALLY PULLS THROUGH. RIDGING BEGINS FRIDAY BUT WE MAY               
START WITH MORNING CLOUDS...THEN SOME SUNSHINE. 850'S OF ONLY 8-10C             
SO FAIRLY COOL FOR JULY...L-M 70S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                    
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS SUMMERY AND GENERALLY DRY BUT IT IS CERTAINLY               
NOT A LOCK. LONG ADVERTISED EASTERN RIDGE IS NOT REALLY ESTABLISHING            
ITSELF AS LATEST MRF SHOWING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK RIPPLES             
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER. THERE WOULD BE A RISK OF MCS TYPE                  
ACTIVITY BOTH NIGHTS OVER WRN LAKES WITH FUTURE PATHS UNCERTAIN. FOR            
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW HPC GRAPHICS AND KEEP SAT AND SUN DRY               
AND CHC POPS MON FOR WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEW MEX NUMBERS JUST            
IN CONFIRM THIS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING CEILINGS OF 3-4 KFT AND                 
MVFR-LEVEL VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE AS THEY                
TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. AFTERWARD...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL               
BRIEFLY REBOUND TO VFR LEVELS...BEFORE THE SFC WAVE/ASSOCIATED                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER MICHIGAN APPROACHES AND SPREADS A ROUND OF                
STEADIER -SHRA/EMBEDDED -TSRA ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS                        
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LATER ROUND OF PCPN...WHICH WILL             
DROP CEILINGS/VSBYS TO THE MVFR RANGE...SHOULD BEGIN AT KBUF/KIAG BY            
15Z...SPREADING EAST TO KROC BY 17Z AND KART BY 19Z...AND IS                    
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOUT 9-10 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.                     
BEHIND THIS MAIN BATCH OF PCPN...FLYING CONDITIONS MAY VERY WELL                
AGAIN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS FOR A SHORT WHILE...BEFORE THE SFC/UPPER            
TROUGH AXES APPROACH VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN             
PART OF THE AREA. AS THESE FEATURES APPROACH...LIFT WILL                        
INCREASE...AND WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH COOLING WITHIN THE                      
850MB-500MB LAYER TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04Z AT                   
KBUF/KIAG. SIMILAR TO LAST SUNDAY EVENING...THIS ACTIVITY IS                    
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...REACHING                   
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST                  
PERIOD. AS SUCH...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE              
12Z ISSUANCE OF THE KROC/KART TERMINALS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROWISE...                                                                   
MOST OF AREA IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR EARLY JULY WITH ONLY                          
ONE REAL SHOT OF RAIN (LATE JULY 4) DURING THE PAST TEN DAYS OR SO              
(ALTHOUGH THAT WAS EXCESSIVE IN BUF!). FFG FAIRLY HIGH...OVER 3                 
INCHES IN 3 HOURS. STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THOUGH...AS             
THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING OVER AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.             
&&                                                                              
THATS IT FROM THE BUF EARLY THIS MORNING. GRIDS UPDATED AND                     
PUBLISHED. ZONES ON STREET AROUND 333. REST OF PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW               
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TAKE IT EASY.                                               
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM/HYDRO...DJF/SFM                                                 
AVIATION...JJR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
948 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL BACK IN               
ILLINOIS.  SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO                  
INFLUENCE ILN AREA UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.                                       
CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS THE ARC OF A DEFORMATION ZONE IN WESTERN OHIO ON            
THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SHORT WAVE.  MODELS HINT AT SOME 700 MB              
DEFORMATION LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.                                     
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO ON THE                   
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH TRAILING EDGE AT THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE. SURFACE MAP HAS APPROACHING FRONT IN INDIANA WITH             
DRIER CAPPED CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.                                              
ALREADY UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TO LOW CHANCE. PARTIAL SUNSHINE                   
BREAKING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH               
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.  REST OF FORECAST GOOD FOR NOW.                
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS MORNING IN                   
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROF. MEANWHILE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE TROF HAS BEEN RATHER PALTRY AND SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD                  
TOWARD OHIO. THEREFORE...WILL BACK OFF SOME ON PCPN AT THE TAF SITES            
AND PUSH BACK TIMING AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT. THINK WE            
WILL SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SUNRISE              
AS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT.                                     
PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON STILL                    
FORECAST SO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE             
HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE                  
AROUND 850 MB...STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME CU REDEVELOP. COLD FRONT               
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING SO COULD SEE AN ISOLATED                  
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF IT BUT DUE TO LACK OF DEEPER                    
MOISTURE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF TAF SITES DURING THAT                 
TIMEFRAME.                                                                      
GENERALLY EXPECT SKIES TO THEN CLEAR THIS EVENING BEHIND FRONT...BUT            
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SC UP ACROSS WI. 06Z MESOETA HINTING                
THAT SOME OF THIS MAY ROTATE DOWN INTO NORTHERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT               
BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF DAY AND CMH.              
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT JUL 7 2004                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
AT 06Z...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN MI...SW INTO FAR NWRN             
IN...THEN IT TRAILED INTO IL...AND SRN MO.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE                
SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST...BEING LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY 06Z              
THURSDAY.                                                                       
KILN AND KIND RADARS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED            
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING GENERATED BY A VORT MAX                 
LOCATED OVER SWRN KENTUCKY.  RUC40 TAKES THIS VORT MAX ENE TOWARD               
PMH BY 15Z...THEN INTO W VA BY 18Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIKELY                  
WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH             
THIS FEATURE.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE             
VORT MAX PASSES BY.  THEREAFTER...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS REGION REMAINS AHEAD              
OF COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE.                                     
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN OHIO/NRN KY              
AROUND 00Z...THEN EAST OF REGION BY 06Z.  ETA MODEL DEPICTS SOME                
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE              
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.                             
ON THURSDAY...COOL UPR TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND            
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  WITH LINGERING 850 MB MSTR...HAVE KEPT              
SKY FCST PARTLY CLOUDY.                                                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE ETA ISHINTING AT AN MCS OVER THE            
CNTRL PLAINS STATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE OHIO RIVER VLY.                 
THIS HAS BEEN THE FIRST RUN TO SHOW THIS (GFS SHOWS IT TOO...HOWEVER            
FARTHER SOUTH) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  SINCE IT IS SO HARD TO               
PINPOINT MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE            
CONDITIONS DRY ATTM AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE               
THIS SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...AN UPR LVL HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP             
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VLY OR SERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY                   
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS...ETA AND CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER ON               
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPR HIGH.  THE PLACEMENT WILL BE THE KEY              
TO WHETHER OUR REGION HAS VERY WARM TO HOT WX WITH A TYPICAL 30                 
PERCENT AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...OR WHETHER WE                  
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPR HIGH WHERE S/WVS RIDE ALONG...AND            
BRING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF MCS ACTIVITY.  WE SHALL SEE.                         
FOR TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY...STAYED CLOSED TO MAV VALUES.                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT JUL 6 2004                    
SHORT TERM(TNGT)...                                                             
I HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING FOR WATCHES WHICH HAVE BEEN                    
CANCELLED IN INDIANA AND EXPIRED IN KENTUCKY. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED              
FOR EVENING WORDING BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS THE SAME.                      
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
SHORT TERM(TNGT-THU NGT)...                                                     
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FRONT THROUGH AREA             
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION                  
APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO                
FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEEMS                
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CLEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY                        
THOUGHT. WITH 30 KNOT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED AT 850 MB TONIGHT THREAT             
FOR HIGH WINDS EXISTS. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH                   
SECONDARY TROF MOVING SLOWER WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE RAIN THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HI PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND            
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CURRENT                     
FORECAST.                                                                       
.LONG TERM(FRI-MON)...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRIDAY AND IT APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER                  
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION             
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.  THEN...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE                 
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING NORTH AGAIN ON                     
TUESDAY...AND MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SEEMS TO BE A PRUDENT CHOICE.             
NOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH THE GIVEN SCENARIO...GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE                
INCREASED AGAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ...WITH             
MAINLY MID 80S FOR DAILY HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
630 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS MORNING IN                   
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROF. MEANWHILE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE TROF HAS BEEN RATHER PALTRY AND SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD                  
TOWARD OHIO. THEREFORE...WILL BACK OFF SOME ON PCPN AT THE TAF SITES            
AND PUSH BACK TIMING AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT. THINK WE            
WILL SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SUNRISE              
AS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT.                                     
PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON STILL                    
FORECAST SO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE             
HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE                  
AROUND 850 MB...STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME CU REDEVELOP. COLD FRONT               
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING SO COULD SEE AN ISOLATED                  
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF IT BUT DUE TO LACK OF DEEPER                    
MOISTURE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF TAF SITES DURING THAT                 
TIMEFRAME.                                                                      
GENERALLY EXPECT SKIES TO THEN CLEAR THIS EVENING BEHIND FRONT...BUT            
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SC UP ACROSS WI. 06Z MESOETA HINTING                
THAT SOME OF THIS MAY ROTATE DOWN INTO NORTHERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT               
BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THIS WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF DAY AND CMH.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
AT 06Z...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN MI...SW INTO FAR NWRN             
IN...THEN IT TRAILED INTO IL...AND SRN MO.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE                
SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST...BEING LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY 06Z              
THURSDAY.                                                                       
KILN AND KIND RADARS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED            
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING GENERATED BY A VORT MAX                 
LOCATED OVER SWRN KENTUCKY.  RUC40 TAKES THIS VORT MAX ENE TOWARD               
PMH BY 15Z...THEN INTO W VA BY 18Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIKELY                  
WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH             
THIS FEATURE.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE             
VORT MAX PASSES BY.  THEREAFTER...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS REGION REMAINS AHEAD              
OF COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE.                                     
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN OHIO/NRN KY              
AROUND 00Z...THEN EAST OF REGION BY 06Z.  ETA MODEL DEPICTS SOME                
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE              
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.                             
ON THURSDAY...COOL UPR TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND            
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  WITH LINGERING 850 MB MSTR...HAVE KEPT              
SKY FCST PARTLY CLOUDY.                                                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE ETA ISHINTING AT AN MCS OVER THE            
CNTRL PLAINS STATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE OHIO RIVER VLY.                 
THIS HAS BEEN THE FIRST RUN TO SHOW THIS (GFS SHOWS IT TOO...HOWEVER            
FARTHER SOUTH) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  SINCE IT IS SO HARD TO               
PINPOINT MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE            
CONDITIONS DRY ATTM AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE               
THIS SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...AN UPR LVL HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP             
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VLY OR SERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY                   
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS...ETA AND CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER ON               
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPR HIGH.  THE PLACEMENT WILL BE THE KEY              
TO WHETHER OUR REGION HAS VERY WARM TO HOT WX WITH A TYPICAL 30                 
PERCENT AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...OR WHETHER WE                  
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPR HIGH WHERE S/WVS RIDE ALONG...AND            
BRING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF MCS ACTIVITY.  WE SHALL SEE.                         
FOR TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY...STAYED CLOSED TO MAV VALUES.                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT JUL 6 2004                    
SHORT TERM(TNGT)...                                                             
I HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING FOR WATCHES WHICH HAVE BEEN                    
CANCELLED IN INDIANA AND EXPIRED IN KENTUCKY. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED              
FOR EVENING WORDING BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS THE SAME.                      
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
SHORT TERM(TNGT-THU NGT)...                                                     
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FRONT THROUGH AREA             
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION                  
APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO                
FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEEMS                
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CLEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY                        
THOUGHT. WITH 30 KNOT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED AT 850 MB TONIGHT THREAT             
FOR HIGH WINDS EXISTS. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH                   
SECONDARY TROF MOVING SLOWER WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE RAIN THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HI PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND            
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CURRENT                     
FORECAST.                                                                       
.LONG TERM(FRI-MON)...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRIDAY AND IT APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER                  
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION             
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.  THEN...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE                 
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING NORTH AGAIN ON                     
TUESDAY...AND MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SEEMS TO BE A PRUDENT CHOICE.             
NOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH THE GIVEN SCENARIO...GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE                
INCREASED AGAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ...WITH             
MAINLY MID 80S FOR DAILY HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1056 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND ISO TS DEVELOPING UNDER AREA OF              
PVA OVER KY AND THE WESTERN VIRGINAS ATTM. VORT WILL CONTINUE NE                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEAVING THE FA UNDER A WEAK TAIL OF                  
ACCENT. IN ADDITION...LEE SIDE TROF SHOULD TAKE SHAPE AS H5 TROF                
AXIS MOVES EAST...THIS SHOULD AID SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WILL                
EXPECT THE BIGGEST TRIGGER TO BE RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE THIS                      
AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING EAST AT 10-20 KTS. WILL               
POSTPONE MENTION EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE UPDATE UNTIL THIS                      
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISED SCT COVERAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING SEEMS WELL PLACED.                                                      
WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN A CLICK AND WILL LEAVE DWPTS BASICALLY THE                
SAME. THE CHANGES IN TEMP/DWPTS WILL YIELD CAPES IN THE 1-2K J/KG               
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 20-30 KT FLOW             
IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG WILL DRY AIR AROUND H6. SFC TO MID-LEVEL                
THETA-E DELTAS ARE >20 AFTER 2PM ACROSS THE CWA. ANY TS WITH A                  
HEALTHY UPDRAFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF STRONG            
WINDS. GIVEN THE CAPE VALUES WOULD ONLY EXPECT AN SECONDARY THREAT              
OF STORMS REACHING THE FORECAST VIL OF 55-60 TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.             
CURRENT SPS COVERS THE SITUATION WELL AND WILL ALLOW IT TO RUN                  
UNCHANGED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
WV IMAGERY SHOWS S/WV AXIS ROTATING ACRS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ATTM             
AND ETA/RUC FCSTS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE                  
PLACING CWFA WITHIN PVA REGION LATER TODAY. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES             
TO BE DISPLACED OFF TO THE EAST WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES              
DEVELOPING...ABOUT 25-30 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW. BEST LVLL CONVERGENCE             
TODAY DOES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH JUST OFF TO OUR                      
EAST...BUT ETA DOES PROG SOME DECENT IMMEDIATE LEE OR ESCARPMENT                
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. SO UNLESS DOWNSLOPE WINDS UP BEING ENUF             
TO SQUELCH DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH                
SCATTERED POP CWFA WIDE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK TO MODERATE                
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED NOTABLE SHEAR FOR JULY             
TO GIVE RISE TO SVR THREAT AS WELL.                                             
CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY               
ALTHOUGH BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY OFF TO OUR             
NORTH. TAIL END OF WEAK VORT AXIS DOES SWING THROUGH BUT BETTER                 
CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE JUST SE OF CWFA WHERE SFC FRONT JUMPS                   
INTO LEE TROUGH POSITION DURING THE DAY. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES               
SWINGING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. ALLOWING UPPER HEIGHTS TO START                
TO RISE ONCE AGAIN THU NITE WITH SFC FRONT PROGGED TO BE STALLED                
JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.                                                          
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
A CONTINUED RISE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS RIDGING                  
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ACRS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. STILL                  
LOOKING AT LITTLE MOVEMENT TO DIFFUSE FRONT/BNDRY JUST OFF TO OUR               
SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST ACRS               
THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...RUNNING A GOOD            
6 TO 8 DEG ABOVE WHAT THEY WERE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...                
CI/AC FROM EARLIER MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMP/DWPT SPREAD              
HIGH IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO...THE ONLY TAF SITE TO SEE PCPN YDAY               
WAS ASHEVILLE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED FOG TO MVFR AT ANDERSON AND             
AVL. THINK THAT HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW                  
THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG               
FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENUF TO MAKE IT INTO THE AVL AIRPORT. &&               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NED                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1001 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...                                     
LATEST RUC INDICATES MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THIS               
TREND WILL CONTINUE. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA            
THIS MORNING...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH                    
CAROLINA THIS AFTN. DO NOT PLAN A MORNING UPDATE AT THIS TIME.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THU THROUGH TUE/...                                                 
THE COMBO OF RIDGING ALF REDEVELOPING WWD FROM THE ATLC AND ACROSS              
THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL ENSURE A FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY PATTERN WITH              
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND 20/30 PCNT POPS FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL                 
TSTMS EACH DAY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE BRUSHING THE NRN HALF OF             
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR OUT             
NOW TO ALTER ANY POPS IN OUR LATTER PERIODS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES             
TO OUR LONG TERM.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WITH                
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. LATEST BUOY DATA SHOW WINDS SW-W AROUND             
10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FT. WILL TWEAK WIND DIRECTION IN             
UPDATE AND KEEP WINDS ARND 10 KTS IN GEORGIA 20-60NM. OTHERWISE...NO            
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SEE A FEW CUMULUS BUILD UPS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER SE               
GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER SE GEORGIA AND               
MORE ISOLATED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.                                     
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141 THIS                      
     AFTERNOON.                                                                 
SC...HEAT ADVISORY SCZ040-042>045-047>05 THIS AFTERNOON.                        
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1025 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SE TX THIS MORNING.              
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS OVER OK AND N TX WERE MOVING INTO            
THE AREA.  THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE RAIN AND SEVERE          
STORM CHANCES.                                                                  
THE MODELS WERE OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE POPS TODAY.  THE            
RUC AND ETA HAD BETTER RAIN CHANCES.  ALTHOUGH THE RUC HAD TOO MUCH             
COVERAGE THIS MORNING...THE MODEL DID HAVE THE AREA CORRECT.  THE GFS           
ALSO PICKED UP ON THE 700 MB MOISTURE PATTERN BETTER THAN THE OTHER             
TWO.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC AND ETA SOLUTIONS.                               
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE            
POSSIBLE.  THE LI/S RANGED FROM -8 TO -11 AND CAPE VALUES WERE ABOUT            
5000.  SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE K-INDEX          
OF 36 AT LCH AND THE FACT THAT THE 700 MB DEWPOINTS WERE FROM 2 TO 4            
CELSIUS AT THE COAST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SCATTERED STORMS AT 15Z WERE             
MOVING INLAND AT 15 KNOTS...THEY WERE PRODUCING 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH                 
RAINFALL.  ALSO...THE SEA BREEZE AND A BAY BREEZE MAY GET INVOLVED              
LATER.  ALL OF THESE SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING           
IN FROM THE NORTH.                                                              
WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF              
THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL                     
POSSIBILITIES IN THOSE COUNTIES...ALSO.  THINK THAT THE SEVERE                  
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.               
MAY NEED TO UPDATE FOR THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR FOR THE EVENING.            
PL-40                                                                           
43/99                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                           
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 75 95 75 92/20 10 20 20 40                             
HOUSTON (IAH)         94 76 94 76 91/30 20 30 20 40                             
GALVESTON (GLS)       90 80 90 80 88/20 20 20 20 40                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE HEAT ADVISORY                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
945 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR WEBB COUNTY AS              
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX            
VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 110 DEGREES.  PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY            
TO GO WITH TEMPS AGAIN TODAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.  THE MAIN            
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW TO HANDLE THE MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY             
LOCATED NEAR KABI.  CONVECTION POSSIBILITY LOOKS NIL ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLGT CHANCE IN THE EASTERN HALF.                   
HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA.  THE RUC/NGM               
ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE                 
SEA-BREEZE BUT GFS/ETA ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH             
ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.  SCEC WILL                    
CONTINUE FOR THE BAYS TODAY AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING KEEPS WINDS 15              
TO 20 KNOTS.  MAY AGAIN SEE THE SOUTHERN BAYS...NAMELY BAFFIN                   
BAY...INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE            
WINDS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                                                     
94/MJ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ETA AND GFS DISAGREE ON                  
HANDLING OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY GENERATED BY THE MCS                 
WHICH PLOWED THROUGH WEST TEXAS LAST NIGHT.  ETA IS MUCH STRONGER               
WITH THE VORTICITY SYSTEM AND IS GENERATING PRECIP AHEAD OF IT                  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES                
WHICH GFS PRETTY MUCH DAMPS THE FEATURE OUT.  LATEST WATER VAPOR                
LOOP AND IR IMAGERY ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SORT OF SPIN-UP JUST                    
YET...AND MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO OK WITH               
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF CONVECTION DYING DOWN AS PER SJT RADAR.                      
ERGO...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT GFS DOES              
DEVELOP SOME WEAK ENERGY AND SLIDES IT DOWN.  IN SHORT...WILL GO                
WITH 20 POPS NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND 10 OR LESS ELSEWHERE.              
MODERATE MOISTURE FIELD REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT ONLY              
FOCUS WILL BE THE SEA-BREEZE.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILDS IN EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING AGAIN IN THE                       
AFTERNOON.  WILL ONLY MENTION POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AGAIN WHERE               
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE THE LEAST INFLUENCE.  MODELS CONCUR ON WARMING              
UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A BIT TODAY THEN COOLING IT BACK TO WHAT IT               
WAS YESTERDAY.  WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT (DEGREE) TODAY FROM                   
YESTERDAY'S READINGS AND GO WITH SIMILAR HIGHS THURSDAY AS WERE                 
OBSERVED TUESDAY.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST MORE PERSISTENCE                
THAN ANYTHING.  ON THE MARINE SIDE...WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCEC ON             
THE BAYS TODAY WITH WINDS BELOW SCEC TONIGHT ALL LOCATIONS.                     
FINALLY...HEAT INDICES IN PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY INCLUDING LAREDO              
FORECAST TO GO ABOVE 110 DEGREES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS SO WILL HAVE             
HEAT ADVISORY THERE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...PREFERRED GFS                     
CONTINUES TO PROG AN UPPER LOW/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INLAND THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN A              
SLIGHT CHC FOR FRI AS CWA WILL BE ON THE W SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND                
PWAT'S WILL ONLY BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES. ON SAT THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS W            
JUST S OF THE CWA...PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE                       
PWAT'S/MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING OMEGA. THE SEA             
BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE SFC FORCING...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE                 
BETTER OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE HIGHER PWAT'S WILL BE LOCATED. THE            
UPPER LOW IS TO THE W OF THE REGION ON SUN CONTINUING TO PROVIDE                
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THUS EXPECT A REPEAT ON SUN. LATEST GFSLR               
ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW A WET PATTERN FOR MON AND TUE...WITH SOME               
DRYING BY WED. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE FRI WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT             
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TREKS ACROSS THE REGION.  A SFC            
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUN/MON WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO            
MODERATE ELY SFC WINDS. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE             
WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST             
PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI   93 76  92 75  91 / 10 10 05 05 10                              
VICTORIA         93 76  92 74  91 / 20 20 10 05 20                              
LAREDO          103 79 102 78 101 / 00 05 00 00 05                              
ALICE            96 74  96 73  94 / 10 10 05 00 10                              
ROCKPORT         90 80  90 79  87 / 10 20 10 10 20                              
COTULLA          97 74  98 74  96 / 05 05 00 00 05                              
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY TXZ239 UNTIL 630 PM.                                              
$$                                                                              
86/GW...SHORT-TERM                                                              
81/TE...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
418 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SHOWERS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW JUST NORTHEAST             
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW               
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM              
THIS LOW TO THE WEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE FEATURES                  
INDICATE A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. A COLD FRONT SWINGS            
FROM THIS THROUGH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A BROAD RIDGE                     
CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS              
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH            
PLAINS. A 75 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET IS OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS                  
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON TONIGHT. 300K             
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
MODELS AGREE ON MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE NEARLY            
SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE 305K CONDENSATION             
PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30MB OVER THE AREA. THIS                 
ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP                
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG A REALITY TONIGHT. THE BLANKET OF CLOUD                 
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY.                                     
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE               
NORTHERN MID LEVEL PLAINS RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE RIDGE WILL             
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE                
AREA. THUS RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG WILL END.                                           
THE MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MIGRATE INTO THE               
CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL                
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FORECAST. THE SOUNDING FORECAST INDICATES THAT             
THE AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER STABLE WITH LIFTED INDEXES AROUND 4. A              
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND MOISTURE THE FROM THE            
WET GROUNDS FROM TODAYS RAINS ALONG WITH A SURFACE BASED INVERSION              
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA LATE. CLOUD COVER WILL             
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                      
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND                  
CONTINUE TO BREAK IT DOWN ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN              
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE             
WESTERN U.P. ON FRIDAY. THUS THE AFORE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTS. ETA DEVELOPS A               
DEEP SHORTWAVE AND BRINGS IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SEEMS             
TO DIVERT THIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME BRING A                
CUT OFF LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL THINK THAT                 
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM. THUS WILL              
FAVOR THE ETA WITH THIS AND EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND                
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                           
MODEL START TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE HAVING              
SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. CANADIAN GEM AND UKMET ARE FAVORING THE GFS             
AND IT SEEMS TO BE DOING VERY WELL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS             
NORTHERN CONUS WILL BE MOVING THE SYSTEMS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                        
A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE                   
SOUTHERN STATES. A LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL TRACK TO                     
NORTHEAST MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A                
WEAK RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE ACCOMPANYING                 
SURFACE LO9W OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES EAST.             
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO                  
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH OVER              
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE UPPER                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL RACE            
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. TOGETHER THESE SHOULD GENERATE A SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IMMEDIATELY.                  
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE              
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY A 100 KNOT JET              
MAX WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE                  
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.             
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH ANOTHER LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND             
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE            
DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WILL LIKELY                 
GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 75 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET            
MAX WILL PUSH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE             
WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY.                  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.              
SURFACE FEATURES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS                       
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
120 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
VORT MAX HAS MOVED EAST WITH NVA BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. COLD FRONT             
IS REACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER.  THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS                        
PERSIST...TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SUFFER NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.              
WILL COVER MVFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPO GROUPS 18-21Z.  AREA OF CLOUDS              
WITH SECONDARY VORT MAX NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN ARE HEADED TOWARD DAY AND            
CMH SO WILL GO WITH TEMPO BKN020 AFTER 00Z.  REST OF FORECAST                   
WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.                                                    
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY JUST AFTER THE FRONT.  CALMER CONDITIONS              
WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH LOOSER POST                   
FRONTAL GRADIENT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL BACK IN               
ILLINOIS.  SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO                  
INFLUENCE ILN AREA UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.                                       
CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS THE ARC OF A DEFORMATION ZONE IN WESTERN OHIO ON            
THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SHORT WAVE.  MODELS HINT AT SOME 700 MB              
DEFORMATION LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.                                     
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO ON THE                   
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE...WITH TRAILING EDGE AT THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE. SURFACE MAP HAS APPROACHING FRONT IN INDIANA WITH             
DRIER CAPPED CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.                                              
ALREADY UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TO LOW CHANCE. PARTIAL SUNSHINE                   
BREAKING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH               
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.  REST OF FORECAST GOOD FOR NOW.                
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT JUL 7 2004                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
AT 06Z...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN MI...SW INTO FAR NWRN             
IN...THEN IT TRAILED INTO IL...AND SRN MO.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE                
SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST...BEING LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY 06Z              
THURSDAY.                                                                       
KILN AND KIND RADARS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED            
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING GENERATED BY A VORT MAX                 
LOCATED OVER SWRN KENTUCKY.  RUC40 TAKES THIS VORT MAX ENE TOWARD               
PMH BY 15Z...THEN INTO W VA BY 18Z.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LIKELY                  
WORDING FOR THIS MORNING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH             
THIS FEATURE.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE             
VORT MAX PASSES BY.  THEREAFTER...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS REGION REMAINS AHEAD              
OF COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE.                                     
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN OHIO/NRN KY              
AROUND 00Z...THEN EAST OF REGION BY 06Z.  ETA MODEL DEPICTS SOME                
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE              
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.                             
ON THURSDAY...COOL UPR TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND            
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  WITH LINGERING 850 MB MSTR...HAVE KEPT              
SKY FCST PARTLY CLOUDY.                                                         
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE ETA ISHINTING AT AN MCS OVER THE            
CNTRL PLAINS STATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE OHIO RIVER VLY.                 
THIS HAS BEEN THE FIRST RUN TO SHOW THIS (GFS SHOWS IT TOO...HOWEVER            
FARTHER SOUTH) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  SINCE IT IS SO HARD TO               
PINPOINT MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE            
CONDITIONS DRY ATTM AND WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE               
THIS SITUATION.  OTHERWISE...AN UPR LVL HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP             
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VLY OR SERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY                   
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS...ETA AND CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER ON               
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPR HIGH.  THE PLACEMENT WILL BE THE KEY              
TO WHETHER OUR REGION HAS VERY WARM TO HOT WX WITH A TYPICAL 30                 
PERCENT AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...OR WHETHER WE                  
REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPR HIGH WHERE S/WVS RIDE ALONG...AND            
BRING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF MCS ACTIVITY.  WE SHALL SEE.                         
FOR TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY...STAYED CLOSED TO MAV VALUES.                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT JUL 6 2004                    
SHORT TERM(TNGT)...                                                             
I HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING FOR WATCHES WHICH HAVE BEEN                    
CANCELLED IN INDIANA AND EXPIRED IN KENTUCKY. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED              
FOR EVENING WORDING BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS THE SAME.                      
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
SHORT TERM(TNGT-THU NGT)...                                                     
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FRONT THROUGH AREA             
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION                  
APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO                
FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEEMS                
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CLEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY                        
THOUGHT. WITH 30 KNOT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED AT 850 MB TONIGHT THREAT             
FOR HIGH WINDS EXISTS. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH                   
SECONDARY TROF MOVING SLOWER WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE RAIN THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HI PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND            
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CURRENT                     
FORECAST.                                                                       
.LONG TERM(FRI-MON)...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRIDAY AND IT APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER                  
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION             
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.  THEN...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE                 
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING NORTH AGAIN ON                     
TUESDAY...AND MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS SEEMS TO BE A PRUDENT CHOICE.             
NOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH THE GIVEN SCENARIO...GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE                
INCREASED AGAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ...WITH             
MAINLY MID 80S FOR DAILY HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
237 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
INSTABILITY PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH WEAKLY CAPPED                
ATMOS OVER THE CWA WITH BORDERS EXPERIENCING MODERATELY UNSTABLE                
CONDITIONS. SFC TROF TO THE EAST IS EVIDENT WITH A BROKEN LINE                  
ENHANCED CLOUDS FROM S GA TO DELMARVA. TO THE WEST...DEEP CONVECTION            
IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE              
UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT HOMEGROWN TS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS LATER             
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOVING EAST AT 10-20 KTS. MESOETA AND              
RUC SUGGEST THAT SH/TS TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE LOWER                      
APPALACHIAN REGION THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL                
FORECAST SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL ISO                  
COVERAGE EAST. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COMBINED WITH MODERATE FLOW                    
WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF TS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.                           
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FA THU...EVENTUALLY               
STALLING OUT OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. WITH DEEP LIGHT              
WEST FLOW AND LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT                  
SHOULD BE RATHER POOR. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE POPS IN             
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. IN ADDITION...FAIRLY STABLE AIR SHOULD ADVANCE            
SOUTH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WILL             
CONTINUE ISO COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS TO COVER...HOWEVER...IF FRONT IS             
DELAYED OR IS A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN ISO.              
FRI AND SAT...DEEP RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE            
REGION HOT AND HUMID. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF            
A TRIGGER AND POSSIBLY A MORE PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL             
SIDE WITH MOS AND KEEP POPS LIMITED INTO THE ISO LOW CHC                        
RANGE...WITH FAVOR GIVEN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. HOWEVER...STRONG PULSE            
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW TO MID 90S OVER U60S TO L70S...CAPES           
POSSIBLY POOLING OVER 3K J/KG.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES E OF REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS             
WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRUSH THE CWA AS UPPER                
DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY N AND E OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE                    
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUN...LEAVING W TO NW                   
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S             
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO             
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AFTER SUN...STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SCT                 
AFTN-EVE CONVECTION...ESP OVER THE MTNS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER AREA LATE AFTN-EVE. COMBINED WITH GOOD             
SURFACE HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THIS SHOULD               
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND             
SUNSET. HAVE INCLUDED CB COULD TYPE FOR ALL TAFS INTO THIS EVE. VCTS            
ALSO INCLUDED AT KAVL AND KHKY SINCE MTNS WILL SEE GREATER                      
DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS WILL DRIFT E OVER FOOTHILLS. STRONGER UPPER              
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS MOVING FASTER THAN PREV DAYS SO IF            
ONE DOES DEVELOP NEAR AN AIRFIELD IT SHOULD MOVE E OF THE AREA                  
QUICKLY. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A BIG PROBLEM OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN              
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL...IN WHICH CASE CIG/VIS COULD GO BELOW              
MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NED                                                                
LONG TERM...RAB                                                                 
AVIATION...RAB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc