INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 930 AM PST TUE MAR 03 2003 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH 40KM RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS HALFWAY DOWN THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR NOW SHOWING THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. WILL EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID DAY AS AN AREA OF PVA REMAINS OVERHEAD. MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE DISTRICT UNDER NVA BY 400 PM...AS OF WHICH ALL PRECIP WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS OVER THE DESERTS DECOUPLED THIS MORNING AND WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...NO NEED TO UPDATE WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A LITTLE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AS 24 HOUR TREND IS UP THIS MORNING. THIS COULD BE DUE MORE TO THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME THICKNESS FALLS AND COOLER 850MB TEMP/S TODAY. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPDATE FORECAST TO RISE MAX TEMPERATURES. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS STILL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MOLINA .HNX...NONE. $$ ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 900 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 NO BIG CHANGES COMING ALONG IN LATE EVENING UPDATE. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING SVL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE POLAR FRONT LYING OVR CNTRL IL THIS EVENING. LATEST 3 HOURLY PRES FALLS ACRS EASTERN IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA SUGGESTING WAVES ALONG BNDRY SHOULD RACE ACRS S-CNTRL IL INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT. MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PRECIP OCCURRING WITH 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM SE IOWA NE TOWARDS CHICAGO. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SVL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES...NW OF PEORIA. NEXT BAND OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS PEORIA NOW WITH SVL OTHER BANDS OF PRECIP ROTATING EWD OUT OF MO. RUC MODEL INDICATING MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BE FROM 04Z-10Z...WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MOVING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WL DO SOME TWEEKING OF THE WINDS NORTH OF THE BNDRY AS THEY HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT OVR THE PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST LEFT ALONE. .ILX...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. $$ SMITH il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1042 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH TO THE MN BORDER. GETTING VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS OF 30 OR 35 TO 1 OVER NW IA WITH BAND OF ENHANCEMENT EXTENDING E INTO THE KMCW AREA. NEW AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING OVER SW PER MODEL FORECASTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ETA AND RUC BOTH NAILED THIS DEVELOPMENT FROM OMA TO CIN AND KADU WHILE SHOWING SOME DECREASE IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME I THINK THE 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES BUT GIVEN VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE TO GET TO THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. STILL ANTICIPATING THE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW OVER SW IA TO TRANSITION TO THE ESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT SNOW TOTALS UNCHANGED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WILL MAKE ANY NEEDED CHANGES PER OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. .DSM...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SE OF ALO-BNW-AIO LINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THIS LINE TO THE MN BORDER. $$ JAW ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1020 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2003 NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. THINGS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP JUST A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED AND AN ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO SHIFT THE WARNING ONE ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH. HOWEVER SNOW SHOULD BE SHUTTING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NRN CWFA AFTER 3 OR 4 AM AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OHIO AND NORTH WINDS BEGIN DRIVING DRIER AIR IN. WILL THEREFORE KEEP AREAS FROM MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT OUT OF THE WARNING... BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING VERY CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. AN ARGUMENT COULD ALSO BE MADE TO REMOVE THE JXN AND BTL AREAS FROM THE WARNING SINCE ALL THE HVY SNOW HAS BEEN TO THE NORTH AND THEY'VE ALREADY MISSED OUT ON A COUPLE INCHES. HOWEVER ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING ON KLOT/KIWX RADARS AND THIS WILL BE SPREADING INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER BEYOND 12Z SO THERE WILL BE SOME EXTRA TIME TO MAKE UP FOR THE MISSED SNOW THIS EVENING. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THIS EVENING HAS BEEN SITUATED FROM SW WI ENE INTO CENTRAL LWR MI. KMKX RADAR CONFIRMED THIS EARLIER... SHOWING NARROW BANDS OF MUCH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES. LATEST RUC SHOWS BEST FGEN FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTING SE INTO...AND THROUGH...THE CWFA OVERNIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT SOME RATHER INTENSE LOCALIZED/NARROW BANDS TO DEVELOP SOON. ALL IN ALL THINGS APPEAR TO BE PLAYING OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED EARLIER...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE THIS EVENING. PNSGRR WILL BE OUT SOON. MEADE .GRR...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING FOR OTTAWA...KENT...IONIA...CLINTON...ALLEGAN...BARRY... EATON...INGHAM...VAN BUREN...KALAMAZOO...CALHOUN...JACKSON... MONTCALM AND GRATIOT COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING FOR OCEANA...NEWAYGO...MECOSTA...ISABELLA...MUSKEGON... OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1005 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA WITH POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF IN BOTH BRANCHES OVR WCNTRL CONUS AND CONFLUENT...NRLY ZONAL FLOW ACRS GRT LKS. CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE BRANCHES AT H3 HAS MOVED OVR UPR LKS...WITH 140-150KT H3 JET MAX AXIS XTNDG OVR CWA INTO SE CAN. A SHRTWV NR LK WINNIPEG DIGGING S THRU THE NRN BRANCH HAS CAUSED H3 WNDS TO VEER MORE WSW...AND EXTENSIVE CI/CS ON ACYC SIDE OF UPR JET HAS OVRSPRD ALL OF CWA... BUT CLD IS THINNER FM IWD THRU KEWEENAW ON CYC SIDE (LEFT ENTRANCE) OF JET. THIS CLD ON NRN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MSTR ACRS THE SRN GRT LKS AND IS THICKER ACRS THE SE TIER COUNTIES (IN RRQ OF UPR JET). 00Z GRB SDNG SHOWS NMRS DRY LYRS IN THE LO TO MID TROP...BUT QUITE A BIT OF MID CLD OBSVD AS FAR N AS GRB. MNM/ESC/ISQ/SUE AWOS/ASOS RPRTG CLR FOR SKY CONDITION...SO NO CLD BLO 12K FT THERE...BUT IMT 02Z OB INDICATES BKN120. HI CLD MUCH THINNER FARTHER N AS ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER OVR CWA. 00Z INL SDNG INDICATES PWAT 0.04 INCH...AND SFC DWPTS UPSTREAM OVR MN ARROWHEAD ARND -15F. APRCH OF SFC HI PRES OVR NRN PLAINS/ACYC FLOW AND LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION HAS CAUSED DIURNAL CU/SC OVR LAND TO DSPT THIS EVNG...BUT STILL SOME PTCHY SC NOTED OVR WRN LK SUP DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER. 02Z TEMPS RUNNING WELL BLO NORMAL WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AS LO AS -27C AT INL UPSTREAM. READINGS AS LO AS -5F AT CMX (WHERE HI CLD IS THINNER TO ALLOW MORE RADIATION LOSS) TO 16 AT MNM UNDER DEEPER MSTR ALF. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE HI CLD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS. 00Z RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV NR LK WINNIPEG SLIDING ESE TOWARD CYQT BY 12Z WED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LO/MID TROP MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS INTO CWA. AS A RESULT...CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN NRN/SRN BRANCHES AND H3 JET AXIS TO GRDLY SHIFT SE BY 12Z TO A LINE FM S OF IMT TO N OF ERY AND INTO SE CAN. THUS XPCT HI CLD TO THIN W OF THIS AXIS OVRNGT...BUT REMAIN FAIRLY THICK ACRS MNM/DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE ZNS THRU DAWN. SINCE RUC PROGS DEEPER H7 MSTR TO REMAIN S OF CWA WITH A VERY DRY LWR TROP...NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD WL REMAIN WELL S OF EVEN SRNMOST CWA. PRES GRADIENT FCST TO BCM RATHER SLACK ACRS THE WRN CWA...BUT CONTD CAD IN ADVANCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF MAY KEEP WNDS UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY NR WRN LK SHORE. BUT SUSPECT SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS WL SEE TEMPS PLUMMET THRU DWPT AND TOWARD -20F THAT WAS OBSVD UPSTREAM ON TUE MRNG UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF. READINGS SHUD STAY QUITE A BIT HIER OVR THE SE ZNS UNDER EXTENSIVE HI CLD AND WHERE PRES GRADIENT WL REMAIN A BIT TIGHTER BTWN INCOMING HI AND WAVES OF LO PRES ON SFC FNT TO THE S. AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LONGER TERM... FORECAST ISSUES REMAIN TEMPS OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT SNOW THU/THU NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADDRESS FRI TEMPS/WX... AT TIME WHEN MODELS VARY GREATLY. ONLY DEBATE WED IS TEMPS AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LOTS OF SUN (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW DIURNAL CU) WILL BE OFFSET BY COLD AMS IN PLACE...W/ H8 TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -22C. MESOETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS INTO LWR/MID TEENS...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE AND ARE CLOSE TO FWC/MET GUIDANCE. BELIEVE MAV NUMBERS ARE TOO COLD FOR MARCH SUN INTENSITY. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WED NIGHT AS TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN WEST AS DEVELOPING S/SE WIND AND INCRG HIER CLDS OFFSET COOLING. COLDEST LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS...THOUGH TEMPS WILL PLUMMET DURING THE EVENING OUT WEST. LOWS TO -10 LOOK GOOD. WL KEEP W/ CHC LGT SN THU AFTN AS WAVE EMERGES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DURATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA WILL BE STRUGGLE AGAINST INITIALLY DRY LWR AMS...BUT W/ LOWERING CPD'S AND MIXING RATIOS TO NEAR 1 G/KG ON 290K SFC...MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMS (LESS THAN AN INCH). AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...WARMING (H8 TEMPS TO -10C) WILL BE OFFSET BY CLDS/PCPN...BUT NONETHELESS SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO MID 20S...EXCEPT IN FAR EAST WHERE COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGEST (NEAR 20F). THESE TEMPS CONSISTENT AGAIN W/ MESOETA SOUNDINGS AND MIXING TO ABOUT 880MB (BASE OF HEFTY INVERSION). SNOW TAPERS OFF THU NIGHT AS UPR SUPPORT EXITS AND WEAK SFC TROF PASSES THRU THE U P (WINDS VEER TO WSW). QUESTIONS ARISE AT THIS POINT REGARDING FRI TEMPS/WX. THE ETA (AND TO AN EXTENT THE CANADIAN) BRINGS IN ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY ON FRI BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF. THE AVN/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW SFC DEVELOPMENT IN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR...WHICH DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS IS CONSISTENT W/ PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THE ETA IS SWINGING POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOO QUICKLY...AND SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPECTED AS LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM BC/ALB. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH AVN SOLUTION...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE W/ ENSEMBLE MEAN. TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD (H8 TEMPS TO -7C PER THE USUALLY COLD AVN)...AND HAVE GONE DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS IN REGION OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. HAVE KEPT W/ PREVIOUS FCST OF LWR/MID 30S ON FRI...W/ LACK OF A GOOD SLY PUSH HOLDING THEM THAT LOW. IN THE EXTENDED...EVERYONE AGREES IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATE SAT INTO MON PERIOD. CHC SNOW ON SAT WILL DIMINISH TO SCT -SHSN OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT AND SUN (AMTS HINDERED BY ICE COVER OF COURSE). GFS BEGINS TO WARM THINGS UP FOR MON/TUE...BUT BELIEVE IT DOES THIS TOO FAST (IT IS WARMEST OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). HAVE SIDED W/ ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SHOWS DRY DAY MON THEN CHC OF SNOW TUE AS NEXT WAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES....WHILE H8 TEMPS WARM TO THE MID TEENS (OPERATIONAL MRF HAD H8 TEMPS TO -8C BY TUE). AS SIDE NOTE...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE RECORD LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD COLD HIGH OF 16F ON SUN AND RECORD LOW OF -16F ON MON AT NWS OFFICE APPEAR TO BE IN JEOPARDY. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 145 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 CONVERGENCE OF WINDS ALONG TROUGH HAS ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG M-72 (EAST OF I-75). A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA HAVE REPORTED 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...CORRELATES WITH OBS AT TVC REPORTING 1/2 TO 1/4SM +SN OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. HENCE HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE...AND KALKASKA. WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHWEST AND RUC SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST ADVISORY AREA. .APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ025>027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MIZ041-042. MASEK mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1110 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 MAIN FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING WINTER STORM. WEATHER CURRENTLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH EVEN SOME SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW NORTHERN SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WITH NEXT ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WITH FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEXT LOW OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HIGH PRESSURES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL CANADA/HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA SPREADING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. 12Z RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES SATURATING BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN WITH HEATING...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD SEE CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BEGINNING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A DIURNAL LOOK...AS WELL AS SHOWING A BAND SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE SUCKER HOLE WHOLE-HEARTEDLY...BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION MORE SUN FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS OF GOOD INSOLATION THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES AT MANY STATIONS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 30S ALREADY. 12Z DTX SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH FULL SUN...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS FILL IN WE MAY APPROACH THOSE TEMPERATURES. AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z RUN OF THE ETA/NGM...CURRENT FORECAST AND HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. CURRENT ETA EVEN POINTING TOWARD MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. 12Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM NOSE UP TO 6C AROUND 950MB. THE ETA INITIALIZATION WAS RATHER DECENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS ILLINOIS BUT TOO WARM ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO DTX SOUNDING. 12Z RUC IS SLOWER IN SURGING THIS WARM AIR NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 00Z AS OPPOSED TO 12Z-18Z AS INDICATED BY THE ETA. CONSEQUENTLY THINK THE ETA IS TOO OVERDONE WITH THE SOUNDINGS AND DEGREE OF MIXED/MELTED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH RUC PROFILES AND CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND IT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. QUESTION FOR POPS IN NOT WHETHER WE GET SNOW...BUT RATHER WHAT CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP BEFORE THE 6PM LST CUTOFF BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT PERIODS. RATHER THAN MENTIONING POPS FOR THE UPDATE UNDER THIS SITUATION...MAY BE BEST FROM A GENERAL USER PERSPECTIVE TO FOLLOW A PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE WORDING. .DTX...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT....MIZ055-060>063-068>070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...TONIGHT... MIZ047>049-053-054-075-076-082-083. $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1110 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 NO ZFP UPDATE PLANNED. HIGH PRES WEDGED INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS/SCT SHOWERS JUST S AND E OF AREA. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEDGE PULLING OUT THIS AFTN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS TOWARD LAND. CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK WITH PARTLY SUNNY WITH 20/30 POPS FOR LATE AFTN SHOWERS. TEMPS ON TRACK. MARINE...NE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SRN WTRS AND A LTL STRONGER WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT N OF THE TROF. LATEST RUC SHOWS THESE WINDS RELAXING JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WL OPT TO HOLD ON TO NE 15-20 A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE TROFS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WL ADD AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE SRN WTRS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER N WE'RE SEEING E WINDS ALREADY AND LIGHTER. OTHERWISE...WL MAINTAIN SCA EXPECTED HEADLINE FOR TNGT AND WL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. .MHX...NONE. JBM/NP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 940 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH MOST FORECASTS...TIMING IS EVERYTHING. MODELS ARE IN REASONBLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MVMNT OF SFC LOW AND CDFNT. LATEST RUC IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND THEREFORE A BIT WARMER AND ALREADY SEEMS TOO WARM BASED ON CURRENT SFC READINGS ACRS NW OH AND N IN. EXTRAPOLATION OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN PUTS ONSET ARND TOL AT 6Z AND RAIN SPREADS EAST ABT 30 MPH. HEAVIER PCPN SHUD FALL IN OVERRUNNING ZONE N OF FNT. WL NOT NEED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST. WL TRY TO ADD A LITTLE MORE TIMING ON CHANGEOVER FOR EXAMPLE RAIN SHUD CHANGE TO WINTERY PCPN AROUND CLE BY MID MORN BUT WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY IN CANTON AND YTOWN. WL KEEP TEMPS IN MID 30S UNTIL CHANGE OVER. UPDATE TO RUN ABT 10 PM. .CLE... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TNGT AND WED MORN NW OH OHZ003-006>007. PA...NONE. $$ KOSARIK oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1055 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE CAE CWA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE HAD MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS WOULD HAVE BEEN. CAE IS CURRENTLY 58. WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE HIGHS TO MID 60S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTION AND TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH PART. RUC KEEPS SURFACE WINDS E 5-10 MPH. THIS SOUNDS GOOD. ALSO WILL GO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RAIN SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND 20 PERCENT NORTH PART. OTHERWISE...NO MORE CHANGES. FCSTID = 07 CAE 64 52 74 56 / 30 50 30 70 AGS 64 51 74 54 / 30 30 30 70 SSC 64 52 74 55 / 30 50 30 70 OGB 65 52 75 56 / 30 30 30 70 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. TTH THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. ************************************************************** AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 300 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 MOS POPS HAVE BEEN DOING A FLIP FLOP EACH RUN...ALTHOUGH MAV HAVING BEST RUN/RUN CONSISTENCY. BOTH GFS/ETA SUGGEST LOW CHANCE RAIN TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING...AREA OF RAIN MOVING STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF CSRA AREA...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO STAY OUT OF AREA AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GA COAST THIS MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT ACROSS FL MOVES INTO AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...LIFT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...INCREASING CHANCE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAE...WILL GO LIKELY THERE...MOS POPS CLT HIGH. CONVECTIVE THREAT LIMITED WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT. FOR WED...EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. COULD GET VERY WARM...LOCAL SCHEMES IN LINE WITH MET GUIDANCE. WILL GO LOW TO MID 70S. AIRMASS BECOMING UNSTABLE WED AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS AND MENTION THUNDER. COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN TENN LATE WED...MODELS APPEAR SLOWER MOVING FRONT TOWARD AREA...UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST. BEST CHANCE RAIN WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AS WEAK LOW IN LA MOVING TOWARD TENN/MID ATLANTIC STATES...MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THRU SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATED AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. CONVECTION MAY BE ELEVATED. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR TEMPS. FCSTID = 19 CAE 60 52 74 56 / 30 50 30 70 AGS 60 51 74 54 / 40 30 30 70 SSC 60 52 74 55 / 30 50 30 70 OGB 62 52 75 56 / 40 30 30 70 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. AWP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 945 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 PUBLIC...RADAR AND SATL CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SE GA AND A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER S COASTAL SC. COASTAL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING A NE-E FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LATEST RUC BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF PVA ACRS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP A GOOD THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. DO NOT PLAN ANY UPDATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MARINE...LTL IF ANY CHG PLANNED ON MARINE UPDATE. SFC RDG ACRS INLAND AREAS AND CSTL TROF WELL OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A LGT NE FLOW ACRS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORN. WILL CONT WITH NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT THIS AFTN AS FNT RMNS TO THE S. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ JH/JC sc WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 902 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT POISED JUST NORTH OF THE HASKMORTON AREA OF THE BIG COUNTRY...ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH...WITH THE UPPER TEENS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. OVER WC TX... 03Z TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS TEMPS. MAV GUIDANCE PROVED VERY UNRELIABLE IN THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF 10 DAYS AGO...AND IT APPEARS 18Z MAV TEMPS ARE FAR TOO WARM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. ZONE AND GRAPHICAL FORECAST UPDATE ON THE WAY. 14 -------------------- 234 PM DISCUSSION... HAPPY MARDI GRAS...IF YOU HAVE EVER LIVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE REST OF THE WORLD FUNCTIONS NORMALLY ON MARDI GRAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WHIPPIN UP PRETTY GOOD TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNDOWN WILL ONLY CARRY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 FOR EVENING IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. COLD FRONT JUST MAKING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RUC SEEMS A BIT BETTER THAN OTHERS AT TIMING...FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL PLACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY 9/10 PM...ABI AROUND MIDNIGHT...SJT BEFORE SUNRISE. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHO POSITION AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAKES WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS THE BIGGEST GAMBLE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ...COULD HAVE BIG TEMPERATURE BUST IF FRONT PROGRESSES PAST PROJECTED STALL LINE FROM ABOUT BIG SPRING TO SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION. FRONT MAY MOVE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON THURSDAY. JUST NOT ENOUGH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL NULL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BAJA CA FRIDAY...THEN OPENS AND SHEARS OUT. DYNAMICS WORKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOISTURE IMPAIRED SO WILL DISCOUNT ANY MENTION OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST. EXTENDED TEMPS LOOK AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS ARCTIC AIR FESTERING IN CANADA MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN MODELS INDICATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABI 042/062/038/069 00000 SJT 046/068/042/072 00000 JCT 046/073/047/074 000-- .SJT...NONE. $$ 25 tx WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 655 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO ADJUST EVENING WIND WORDING. FRONT STILL ON TRACK PER PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT INTRODUCED SOME POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT FOR MOST ZONES. ADDITIONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING. 14 -------------------- 234 PM DISCUSSION... HAPPY MARDI GRAS...IF YOU HAVE EVER LIVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE REST OF THE WORLD FUNCTIONS NORMALLY ON MARDI GRAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WHIPPIN UP PRETTY GOOD TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNDOWN WILL ONLY CARRY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 FOR EVENING IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. COLD FRONT JUST MAKING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RUC SEEMS A BIT BETTER THAN OTHERS AT TIMING...FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL PLACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY 9/10 PM...ABI AROUND MIDNIGHT...SJT BEFORE SUNRISE. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHO POSITION AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAKES WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS THE BIGGEST GAMBLE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ...COULD HAVE BIG TEMPERATURE BUST IF FRONT PROGRESSES PAST PROJECTED STALL LINE FROM ABOUT BIG SPRING TO SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION. FRONT MAY MOVE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON THURSDAY. JUST NOT ENOUGH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL NULL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BAJA CA FRIDAY...THEN OPENS AND SHEARS OUT. DYNAMICS WORKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOISTURE IMPAIRED SO WILL DISCOUNT ANY MENTION OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST. EXTENDED TEMPS LOOK AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS ARCTIC AIR FESTERING IN CANADA MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN MODELS INDICATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABI 042/062/038/069 00000 SJT 046/068/042/072 00000 JCT 046/073/047/074 000-- .SJT...NONE. $$ 25 tx WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 234 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 HAPPY MARDI GRAS...IF YOU HAVE EVER LIVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE REST OF THE WORLD FUNCTIONS NORMALLY ON MARDI GRAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WHIPPIN UP PRETTY GOOD TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNDOWN WILL ONLY CARRY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 FOR EVENING IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. COLD FRONT JUST MAKING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RUC SEEMS A BIT BETTER THAN OTHERS AT TIMING...FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL PLACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY 9/10 PM...ABI AROUND MIDNIGHT...SJT BEFORE SUNRISE. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHO POSITION AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAKES WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPS THE BIGGEST GAMBLE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ...COULD HAVE BIG TEMPERATURE BUST IF FRONT PROGRESSES PAST PROJECTED STALL LINE FROM ABOUT BIG SPRING TO SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION. FRONT MAY MOVE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON THURSDAY. JUST NOT ENOUGH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL NULL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BAJA CA FRIDAY...THEN OPENS AND SHEARS OUT. DYNAMICS WORKING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOISTURE IMPAIRED SO WILL DISCOUNT ANY MENTION OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST. EXTENDED TEMPS LOOK AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS ARCTIC AIR FESTERING IN CANADA MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN MODELS INDICATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABI 042/062/038/069 00000 SJT 046/068/042/072 00000 JCT 046/073/047/074 000-- $$ 25 tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 914 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 SHORT-TERM(TODAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY)...14Z MSAS REVEALED A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PREVAILED INLAND. CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS TODAY AND WILL RETARD ANY RAIPD BURNOFF OF LOW CLOUDINESS. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT DUE TO JET DYNAMICS. PREFER THE LATEST RUC SOLUTION WITH EVELOVING SCENARIO. FEEL WINDS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST AT BEST WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REGION-WIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DOWNGRADE OFFSHORE WATERS TO SCEC FOR HIGH SEAS INITIALLY...BUT IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER. .CRP...NONE. 85/SHORT-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1035 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2003 HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST. WILL CONT WITH ALL HEADLINES AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY POSTED THOUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE DOWN ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FROM THE NORTH TONITE. STORM SYS TO TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA ON WED. 18Z TAQ RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE UPR SINGLE NUMBERS THRU THE M20S TONITE WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES AND WINDS BECOMING N-NE ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES AT 5-10 KTS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE 15-25F TONITE. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TONITE. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AROUND 0.5" AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU MUCH OF WED. RUC SHOWS SN TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA (FROM NORTH TO SOUTH) STARTING AT AROUND 03Z. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SN MOVING DOWN ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES ATTM...WITH MORE PCPN OUT TO THE WEST OF THE FA. STRONG H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON WED... THEN STRONG CAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON WED. H85 TEMPS/H925 WET-BULB TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE CENTRAL/SRN TIER ZONES DURING MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON WED. ETA BUFR DATA SHOWS ALL SN ACRS THE ST LAW VLY...A MIX WITH PL/FZRA ACRS THE CHAMP VLY/NRN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE MIDDAY HRS OF WED...MIXED PCPN ACRS NE/NC VT DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS OF WED...AND A CHANGE TO FZRA/RA ACRS SRN VT ON WED MORNING. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TONITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND EARLY ON WED. LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA ON WED. ETA/NGM QPF THRU 00Z THU ACRS THE FA APPEARS TO BE BLO 0.65". WILL CONT TO FCST HIR POPS ACRS THE NW ZONES AND LOWER POPS ACRS THE SE ZONES TONITE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RUC DATA. PREVIOUS P-TYPE FCST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR WED WITH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO HANG IN ACRS MUCH OF THE NRN TIER AND WARMER AIR EXPECTED TO PENETRATE WELL ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES THEN. AM CONCERNED THAT THE ST LAW VLY AND SOME OF THE CANADIAN BORDER CTYS WILL END UP BUMPING UP AGAINST WARNING CRITERIA SN AMTS. WILL LET MID-SHIFT GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST FOR WED. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TOTAL SN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE ON WED FOR NOW. FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST THREE PERIODS OF THE FCST AS WELL. OTRW...COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING ZFP ONLY. WRK ZONES...FINAL ZFP...AND UPDATED WSW ALREADY ISSUED. LATER... .BTV...WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU WED NYZ026>031-034-VTZ001-002 WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED NYZ035-VTZ003>006- 009 WINTER WX ADVISORY WED VTZ007-008-010. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 135 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003 DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...40 DEGREES OVER 50 MILES IN SOME CASES. SATELLITE SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW DEPICTED BY RADAR EXTENDING FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ETA/GFS/RUC SHOWING THIS VERY WELL ON THE 295K SURFACE...BOTH ADIABATICALLY AND DIABATICALLY. SATELLITE LOOP FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SOME BANDING...SUGGESTING THIS DIABATIC COMPONENT IS DEFINITELY A PLAYER. ONE CONCERN INITIALLY IS THAT THE SNOW BAND WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH THAN IS FORECAST BY EITHER THE MODELS OR OUR CURRENT FORECAST. THE BAND IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY ENHANCEMENT MOVING THROUGH IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS AREA...DEVELOPING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A FEW COUNTIES...WILL NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE FINAL MOMENTS BEFORE ISSUANCE TO ADJUST. THEN WILL DEFER TO EVENING SHIFT TO REFINE FURTHER. FOR TONIGHT...THE ETA/GFS/RUC ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES CONCENTRATED AN AN AREA THAT EXTENDS INITIALLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CLAYTON AND GRANT. THIS AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES BY 03Z. LINEAR CROSS SECTION FROM KUNI-KHYR SHOWS AN AREA OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...SUGGESTING SLANTWISE CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE -10 UBAR/S DIABATIC TERM ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 2-3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES. AM THINKING THAT WE MIGHT BE UNDERDONE WITH THE AMOUNTS OVER CLAYTON AND GRANT. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THERE WITH CURRENT 4-6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THINK WE WILL BE AT HIGH END OF THIS. REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO GOING STORM FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE EVENT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ETA/GFS. THUS...EVENING SHIFT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND BASED ON LATER TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE EVENING LOWS THAT NIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING IN...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS WILL SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTER 06Z. THIS IS ALREADY REPRESENTED WELL IN THE FORECAST. STRONG SIGNAL FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW (BOUNDARY LAYER) BY 10 KNOTS FROM MONDAYS 12Z RUN. THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES OVER MOS...DESPITE SNOW COVER. MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OVERCOME SOME OF THE COOLING FROM THE SNOW. ALSO...BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND NOW THE ETA. RAISED SNOW CHANCES BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION. DIURNAL VARIATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE 10-15 DEGREES AT MOST GIVEN THE CLOUDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW RUNS NOW VERSUS THE CONSTANT CHANGING OF THE GFS. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES BY 10 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME PERIODS AND LEFT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME. SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONSISTENCY. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO ERROR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN THE BETTER MODEL OF LATE. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE ARCTIC HIGH WOULD MOVE FURTHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PRECLUDING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. .LSE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ094>096-WIZ053>055-061. $$ KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 327 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 SYNOPSIS: AFTER MAKING SOME NWD PROGRESS ON TUE, THE FRONT HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DIXIE CO. AS TYPICALLY HAPPENS, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. METARS OBS ALSO INDICATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES. PERSISTENT BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA AND THE NRN BAJA. PUBLIC FORECAST/MODEL DISCUSSION: AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE N OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST RUC TO SHUT OFF FROM W TO E FROM 09-15Z. THE FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PULL SOME OF THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID AIR OF THE YEAR NWD INTO THE CWFA. TEMPS COULD NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. OF COURSE, IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST WHERE SURF TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. PLAN TO RAISE MAX TEMPS BY ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR TODAY WITH MORNING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS IN FL AND SCT NRN ZONES WHERE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. FOR TONIGHT AND THU, SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO NC THU MORNING. THE UPPER JET WILL EXTEND JUST N OF THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT LEAVE MUCH OF THE SERN STATES IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ETA SHOWS AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE 50+ KT LLJ DEVELOPING OVER AL AND SWINGING ACROSS GA DURING THE NIGHT. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. WE/RE LOOKING FOR A FAMILIAR SCENARIO OF LATE, A SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HWO AND INCLUDE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THE WRN ZONES. OVERALL, BELIEVE THE OUTLOOK AREA WAS PLACED A BIT TOO FAR E. IN ANY EVENT, SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON THU AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. AND AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, IT WILL AGAIN STALL NEAR THE AREA AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO FRI. A BLEND OF MAV AND ETA POPS WILL BE FOLLOWED. MARINE: WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NO ADVISORY ANTICIPATED. FIRE WX: TOO HUMID FOR ANY CONCERNS NEXT TWO DAYS. EXTENDED: STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT RETURNING NWD AND BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS ON TUE. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 78 62 75 57 2264 PFN 73 64 71 58 2464 DHN 73 60 69 55 3564 ABY 74 61 70 54 3564 VLD 78 62 77 58 3264 CTY 79 63 80 61 2153 .TLH... AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z. GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z. FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z. WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1005 AM CST WED MAR 5 2003 CERTAINLY THE TALE OF TWO SEASONS ACRS AR THIS MRNG. LATEST SFC/MSAS DATA SHOWING LEADING WIND SHIFT ALONG A KMWT-KARG LINE. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS INDCD OVER NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER CNTRL AND SRN AR. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED SHORT TERM TRENDS INTO THE AFTN. 12Z MESOETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SHALLOW AIRMASS. USING BL TEMPS AND LI PROGS...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NRN AND WRN AR. MODELS DO SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SFC WVS MOVG ALONG THE SFC BNDRY THRU THE AFTN...SO TEMPS WILL SHOW A LARGE RANGE ACRS THE FA. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD INTO THE AFTN. WILL CONT TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ISC GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY OUT. ..44.. .LZK...NONE. $$ ar AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS RISING IN TANDEM WITH TEMPS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DENSE FOG TO PERSIST ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE IT SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND FROM THE SE TO THE S. .TLH... AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z. GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z. FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z. $$ GOULD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************************* AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 327 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 SYNOPSIS: AFTER MAKING SOME NWD PROGRESS ON TUE, THE FRONT HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DIXIE CO. AS TYPICALLY HAPPENS, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. METARS OBS ALSO INDICATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES. PERSISTENT BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA AND THE NRN BAJA. PUBLIC FORECAST/MODEL DISCUSSION: AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE N OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST RUC TO SHUT OFF FROM W TO E FROM 09-15Z. THE FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PULL SOME OF THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID AIR OF THE YEAR NWD INTO THE CWFA. TEMPS COULD NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. OF COURSE, IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST WHERE SURF TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. PLAN TO RAISE MAX TEMPS BY ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR TODAY WITH MORNING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS IN FL AND SCT NRN ZONES WHERE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. FOR TONIGHT AND THU, SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO NC THU MORNING. THE UPPER JET WILL EXTEND JUST N OF THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT LEAVE MUCH OF THE SERN STATES IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ETA SHOWS AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE 50+ KT LLJ DEVELOPING OVER AL AND SWINGING ACROSS GA DURING THE NIGHT. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. WE/RE LOOKING FOR A FAMILIAR SCENARIO OF LATE, A SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HWO AND INCLUDE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THE WRN ZONES. OVERALL, BELIEVE THE OUTLOOK AREA WAS PLACED A BIT TOO FAR E. IN ANY EVENT, SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON THU AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. AND AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, IT WILL AGAIN STALL NEAR THE AREA AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO FRI. A BLEND OF MAV AND ETA POPS WILL BE FOLLOWED. MARINE: WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NO ADVISORY ANTICIPATED. FIRE WX: TOO HUMID FOR ANY CONCERNS NEXT TWO DAYS. EXTENDED: STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT RETURNING NWD AND BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS ON TUE. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 78 62 75 57 2264 PFN 73 64 71 58 2464 DHN 73 60 69 55 3564 ABY 74 61 70 54 3564 VLD 78 62 77 58 3264 CTY 79 63 80 61 2153 WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 945 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT CLOUD DECKS/MOISTURE LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND NEAR THE SURFACE IN SPOTS UP TO MAYBE 2 KFT. A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS EXISTS AT THE BASE OF THE TEMP INVERSION SOMEWHERE AROUND 7 KFT. JET STREAM CIRRUS TOP OFF THE CLOUD CAKE THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY WORK THROUGH THE LOW STUFF AND REALIZE MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 06Z MAV GUIDANCE. RADAR COMPOSITES ARE BARE THIS MORNING AND LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY UNDER THE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MARINE: STILL HAVING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ATOP FPSN7 WITH LAST REPORTED SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. RUC AND 12KM SURFACE WINDS SHOWING WINDS TO CONTINUE A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. 06Z WAVE WATCH III AT ILM01 SHOWING SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AT 14Z AND WELL BELOW 6FT AT ILM02. CURRENT PLANS ARE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT AND GO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FOR WATERS 10 TO 20 MILES OUT AS SEAS CLOSER TO THE COAST APPEAR TO BE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 4 FT. ILM 72 58 70 49 / 10 60 60 20 LBT 70 57 69 47 / 10 70 60 20 FLO 68 58 71 48 / 10 70 60 20 CRE 67 59 69 50 / 10 60 60 20 .ILM... .NC...NONE. .SC...NONE. PUBLIC: TRA MARINE: HAWKINS nc SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 944 AM CST WED MAR 5 2003 ITEMS OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN INCLUDE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND THE TEMPERATURES. THE 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR CLL AND JUST WEST OF MADISONVILLE...AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN CXO AND IAH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO PSX. THE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THE 12Z SURFACE FEATURES VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY THE MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE PW ANALYSIS AND FORECAST. THE RUC DID THE BEST...FOLLOWED NOT SO CLOSELY BY THE ETA/MESOETA WITH THE GFS A DISTANT THIRD. THE CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 16Z. VISIBILITY TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY UP AND ONLY A FEW SITES HAD DENSE FOG AT 15Z. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL TOWARD 50 THIS AFTERNOON...WILL UPDATE THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS. THE NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM CONCERNS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CURRENTLY KEEPING THE SOLAR HEATING NIL...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR THE BETTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AFTER THE FOG LIFTS. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE RUC AND MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLL FAIRLY STABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT THE THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO THE BE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...THE CLOUD DECK WILL STAY IN IFR CONDITIONS. OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL ADD SCEC CONDITIONS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS. PL-40 33 .HGX...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 315 PM CST WED MAR 5 2003 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES. CURRENTLY SEEING ABOUT A 35 DEGREE TEMP SPREAD FROM NW TO SE ACRS AR THIS AFTN. MID AFTN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S OVER THE NW CORNER TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SE. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED THANKS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS. ACTUAL WIND SHIFT NOW WORKING INTO SERN AR. EXPECT WIND SHIFT TO CONT WORKING SEWD THIS EVENING AS LAST SFC WAVE LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT. STARTING TO SEE SCTD SHRA/TSRA DVLP OVER SRN AR AND BACK INTO NERN TX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PREFER THE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE MESOETA/RUC FOR THE TEMP FCST TNGT INTO THU. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF THE PD. EXPECT SCTD SHRA/TSRA TO CONT OVER SERN HALF OF AR MAINLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD ACRS THE FA. EXPANDED CHC POPS FURTHER NWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR OVER NRN AND W-CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOLY DECREASE LATE TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF NGM AND AVN MOS TEMPS FOR MOST PDS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL AS THE REST OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND LTL IF ANY CHC OF PRECIP INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW LVL TEMP FIELDS SHOWING MUCH OF THE FA WILL RETURN TO THE 60S FOR HIGHS FRI AND SAT. PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN AR WL SEE READINGS TOP THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY SAT. GFS INDCS A CDFNT WORKING ACRS AR SUN AND SUN NGT AS UPPER TROF WORKS SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NWLY OVER AR. SIG MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND PLAN SOME LOW CHC POPS WITH FROPA. ALL IN ALL...NOT TOO MANY SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED PD OF THE FCST. ..44.. .LZK...NONE. $$ ar AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 PM EST WED MAR 5 2003 --FORECAST-- FIRST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST MODELS SLOW DOWN TIMING TO LATER THURSDAY MORNING. SWODY1 MENTIONS VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) FORMING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS SEEN IN ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR OUR NWRN CWFA. LLJ AXIS PROGGED TO PASS FROM CENTRAL AL INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO WE SHOULD STAY ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF BOTH THE LLJ AND UPPER JET AXES...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE THREAT SOMEWHAT FOR OUR AREA. NONETHELESS A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER AT LEAST OUR NRN ZONES DUE TO THE OVERALL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND STRENGTH...AND WILL WORD THIS IN CONCORDANCE WITH FFC. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD ENTER OUR NWRN CWFA AROUND 12Z BENEATH DEEP LAYER DIVERGENCE FIELDS. NEXT CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN THREAT. MANY OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MINIMAL FLOOD STAGE. HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS POSTING BIG NUMBERS...WITH AREAL 24 HR AVERAGE VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR CWFA FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A CREDIBLE FLOOD THREAT EXISTS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...SO WILL DEFER FLOOD WATCH DECISION TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS. MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT WINDS WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. MAY SEE SCEC CONDITIONS FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) - 05/00Z GFS ADVERTISES COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL JUST S OF THE CWFA WHILE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE N WILL THREATEN THE CWFA BEFORE LIFTING AS A WARM FRONT. HIGHER POPS LOOK IN ORDER BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AS PHASING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA LATE WEDNESDAY. THANKS JAX AND FFC FOR COORDINATION. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TLH 063/079 059/073 2557 PFN 064/074 060/071 2557 DHN 063/076 057/070 3777 ABY 062/077 056/071 3777 VLD 063/079 059/073 2557 CTY 064/079 062/075 2337 .TLH...NONE. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ******************************************************************* 930 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS RISING IN TANDEM WITH TEMPS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DENSE FOG TO PERSIST ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE IT SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND FROM THE SE TO THE S. .TLH... AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z. GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z. FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z. $$ GOULD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************************* AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 327 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 SYNOPSIS: AFTER MAKING SOME NWD PROGRESS ON TUE, THE FRONT HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DIXIE CO. AS TYPICALLY HAPPENS, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. METARS OBS ALSO INDICATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES. PERSISTENT BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA AND THE NRN BAJA. PUBLIC FORECAST/MODEL DISCUSSION: AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE N OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST RUC TO SHUT OFF FROM W TO E FROM 09-15Z. THE FRONT WILL PUSH N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PULL SOME OF THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID AIR OF THE YEAR NWD INTO THE CWFA. TEMPS COULD NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. OF COURSE, IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST WHERE SURF TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. PLAN TO RAISE MAX TEMPS BY ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR TODAY WITH MORNING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS IN FL AND SCT NRN ZONES WHERE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. FOR TONIGHT AND THU, SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO NC THU MORNING. THE UPPER JET WILL EXTEND JUST N OF THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT LEAVE MUCH OF THE SERN STATES IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ETA SHOWS AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE 50+ KT LLJ DEVELOPING OVER AL AND SWINGING ACROSS GA DURING THE NIGHT. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. WE/RE LOOKING FOR A FAMILIAR SCENARIO OF LATE, A SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HWO AND INCLUDE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THE WRN ZONES. OVERALL, BELIEVE THE OUTLOOK AREA WAS PLACED A BIT TOO FAR E. IN ANY EVENT, SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON THU AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. AND AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, IT WILL AGAIN STALL NEAR THE AREA AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO FRI. A BLEND OF MAV AND ETA POPS WILL BE FOLLOWED. MARINE: WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. NO ADVISORY ANTICIPATED. FIRE WX: TOO HUMID FOR ANY CONCERNS NEXT TWO DAYS. EXTENDED: STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT RETURNING NWD AND BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS ON TUE. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 78 62 75 57 2264 PFN 73 64 71 58 2464 DHN 73 60 69 55 3564 ABY 74 61 70 54 3564 VLD 78 62 77 58 3264 CTY 79 63 80 61 2153 WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 245 PM EST WED MAR 5 2003 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE AND TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...FIRST ITEM OF BUSINESS IS TO FINISH OFF CURRENT WINTER STORM THAT IS AFFECTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/PRESSURE FALLS SHOW LOW REDEVELOPING NEAR CAPE COD. RUC HAS CAPTURED THIS AND MOVES LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TO JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL PREVENT COASTAL FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH...SO RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...WITH ONLY MAYBE A BRIEF MIXTURE INLAND FROM THERE UP TO BGR AND CALAIS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALSO WILL MAKE A SHIFT SOUTHWARD. RADAR SEEMS TO BEAR THIS OUT WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DOWNEAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES AND DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES...EXCEPT KEEP WARNING GOING IN ZNS 5/6 WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN AND ANOTHER 3/4 A DECENT BET. WILL PUT ADVISORIES UP FOR ZNS 15>17...MAINLY FOR NORTH OF A BGR TO CALAIS LINE. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM....SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 03Z MOST AREAS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES EAST CENTRAL AND 3 TO 6 INCHES INLAND DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR BEHIND THIS LOW DUE TO ITS FAST MOVEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI AND OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT. GFS/ETA SIMILAR IN BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS MAINE FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW. A MILD/DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SAT WHICH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODEL ENSEMBLE BRINGS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. UPPER LOW TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUN/SUN NIGHT OVER NORTH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH WILL PROVIDE COLD/QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A NORTHERN STREAM LOW TO AFFECT AREA PRODCUING MILDER TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION. AVN MOS AGAIN LOOKS MOST REASONBLE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL RAISE POPS FRI NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO QPF FORECASTS. COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KT LATE. .CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THIS EVENING ZNS 5/6 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING ZONES ZNS 1>6,10,11,31,32 15>17 GALE WARNING TONIGHT GABRIC me SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 345 PM EST WED MAR 5 2003 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW FAST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 140KT JET OBSERVED AT 300MB. LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LAST NIGHTS LOW ALREADY TO NEW YORK STATE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VIS SATELLITE/METARS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLEARING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE TRAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. GFS STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE ETA...AND HAS BEEN SO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. MAIN SURFACE LOW SPINS UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO BRING A THREAT OF SNOW. RADARS/METARS UPSTREAM ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF CANADA. 850MB/900MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE TO 10C-15C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA /AND NEAR 25C ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA/. BOTH ETA/GFS INDICATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTING BACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. AND WHILE ETA KEEPS US DRY...GFS PROFILES FOR DTW INDICATES OVER HALF AN INCH OF SNOW. FEEL THAT THIS IS VERY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING MID MOISTURE AND LIFT...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD GET QUITE COLD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE LONGEST. LOW-LEVELS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND EVEN NEGATIVE FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS BEEN OFFSET BY BETTER INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK CAA WILL CONTINUE SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT. BESIDES DRY AIR AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER...WEAK GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT NOT AS MUCH ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING EARLIER DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. SHORTWAVE ALSO CONTINUES EAST BY MORNING...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. BETWEEN MID CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE MORNING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM TODAY...WITH SOME SUN AND A SIMILAR AIRMASS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PRECIP. WILL PULL POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LEAVE A CHANCE IN ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. DECENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 900MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 1C-3C BY 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER DO NOT ENTIRELY BUY INTO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT IS NOT VERY STRONG. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...BUT CUT TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/THICKNESS FIELDS ALSO REFLECT THE WARM ADVECTION...INDICATING POSSIBLE PROBLEMS AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT NOT BUY INTO AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING WE WOULD SEE. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. ETA/GFS BOTH HAVE A A STRONGER 300MB JET /NEAR 150KTS/...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A MORE COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORECAST PROFILES INDICATING TEMPERATURES UP TO 4C-7C 950MB-850MB. DO NOT EXPECT FULL HEATING THOUGH...WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH THIS AMOUNT OF WARM AIR. BASED ON THICKNESS VALUES/FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONSIDERING WET-BULB COOLING...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH/CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD ADVECTION...WITH ALSO CARRY THE MIX OVER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. FOR THE EXTENDED...FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TIMING SHORTWAVES IN THIS PATTERN IS DIFFICULT...ALTHOUGH EXTENDED EXTENDED MODELS ARE OVERALL SIMILAR WITH THE FEATURES. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON MONDAY. PATTERN FOLLOWS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH BUILDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON TUESDAY...AND YET ANOTHER HIGH ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN BURST OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER...SO NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR HOLDS OFF MORE TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT QUICKLY MODERATES AGAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .DTX...NONE. $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1157 AM EST WED MAR 5 2003 WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPR TROF MOVG OVR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 8H THERMAL TROF (TEMPS OF -22 TO -24C) ALSO MOVG OVRHD. COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC HEATING ALG WITH SHALLOW LLVL MSTR ALLOWING FOR SOME SC TO FORM OVR ERN COUNTIES PER VIS SATL LOOP. STGR SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER LLVLS PER 12X MPX SNDG IN ASSOC WITH BLDG SFC RDG SHOULD KEEP DIURNAL SC FAIRLY SCATTERED TO WEST. SO GOING CLOUD FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD. FCST TEMPS OF 11 TO 17 DEGREES FOR INLAND AREAS ALSO LOOK TO BE ON TARGET BASED ON AREA 12Z SNDGS MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB UNDER NEARLY FULL EARLY MARCH SUN. SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE FCSTS AT THIS POINT. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 316 PM CST WED MAR 5 2003 A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO AFFECT SE TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH OUT WEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SLOW WARMUP. IN THE SHORT TERM THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN EXACTLY ON TRACK...THOUGH THE RUC AND GFS OF LATE LOOK REASONABLE. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EVEN MORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AS IT DOES SO...THE LIGHT FOG TO SLOWLY LIFT. THE SOUTHERN JET OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PL-40 33 .HGX...SCEC GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL EB 038/061 047/076 050 221 IAH EB 048/063 048/074 050 321 GLS EB 054/062 057/068 061 631 tx