AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 935 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002 WL NOT MAKE SGFNT CHGS TO GOING FCST FOR EVE UPDATE. 02Z SFC ANLYS PLACES CNVGNC ASSOCD WITH WEAK CDFNT ALG KADU-KDSM-KDBQ LN. 00Z KOAX/KTOP SOUNDINGS INDC AMS CAPABLE OF SOME CONVECTION ABV BNDRY LYR GIVEN SUFFICIENT FORCING. ELEVATED CAPES AOB 1000 J/KG BUT CINS FAIRLY LOW AS WELL. 00Z RUC 850-950MB THETA-E CNVGNC SPOTTY AT BEST OVNGT WITH LOW LVL JET AOB 20KTS. HWVR ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS CONT TO DVLP AFT LOSS OF HEATING SO CNVGNC MUST BE THERE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. WL LEAVE IN MENTION OVNGT SO OF FNT. NO SGFNT CHGS TO MINS OR WNDS BESIDE TO FIT CURRENT WX. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA ISSUED BY NWS JACKSON MS 1035 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2002 SATELLITE SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SE AR AT THIS TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY OLD OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS OVER MS/LA...LYING FROM WEST CENTRAL LA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO SOUTHEAST AR. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SE AR ZONES...BUT LEAVE OUT OF FAR NW ZONES AT THIS POINT WHERE RUC SHOWING LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER. MODIFIED 12Z SHV SOUNDING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRELIM NUMBERS... SHV 97/75/95/74 2222 MLU 96/74/94/74 2222 TXK 98/76/96/75 1122 TYR 96/75/95/75 2222 LFK 95/73/94/73 3232 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1030 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 MAIN CHANGE IN THE UPDATE IS TO SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP PER THE LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA...AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS NECESSITATES CHANGING THE SECOND PERIOD AS WELL AND DROPPING POPS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING EARLY SECOND PERIOD. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE FOR WED MORNING. MADE TWEAKS TO SECOND PERIOD TEMPS AS WELL GIVEN THE EARLIER DEPARTURE OF PRECIP AND MORE SUN EXPECTED. ZONE UPDATE OUT. OSTUNO .GRR...NONE. mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 932 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 GOING FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK...AND WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING. NON HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE NORTH CLOSE TO BOUNDARY HAS PERSISTED EARLY THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY RADAR STARTING TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...IN LINE WITH ALL MODEL DEPICTIONS... THOUGH LATEST RUC DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH SOUTHWARD SAG TONIGHT OF FRONT AS DID 12Z AND 18Z MODELS. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT...WITH RUC SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES AND K INDICES ABOVE 35. GOOD 700 MB AND 850 MB OMEGA LIFT AS WELL...OVERSPREADING FORECAST AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CENTER OF MCS TO CONGEAL SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FROM THERE...SO EVEN SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO GET A GOOD WETTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH STILL CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL KEEP MENTION IN FORECASTS. .DTX...NONE. DWD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 405 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 FCST PROBLEMS ARE SKY CVR AND FOG POTENTIAL TNGT...THEN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI WITH A FRONT EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE WESTERN UP AND INTO ONTARIO. SHOWERS FROM THE MCS ENDED OVER THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE CENTRAL FA A LITTLE AFTER NOON. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE END OF THE SHOWERS...CLDS BROKE UP A LITTLE LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION. THIS HAS HELPED MAKE THINGS A LITTLE UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH RUC CAPE VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG OVER INLAND AREAS. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP...HOWEVER THEY ARE VERY UNORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WITH NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND WE LOSE AFTN HEATING. BIG PROBLEM TONIGHT MAY BE FOG. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WHAT WAS SHOWN IN PREV MODEL RUNS. DWPTS IN MN STILL IN THE 60S...WITH MID-UPR 50S DWPTS WEST OF YQT. WITH THE CLEARING THAT SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS PWATS AND K-INDEX VALUES RAPIDLY LOWER...AND WITH THE RAINS THAT OCCURRED TODAY THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THAT THE DRY AIR MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH THE UP. BUFKIT ETA PROFILES SHOW SOME EXTREMELY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN MQT AND CMX...NOT SURE IF THIS IS FROM ADVECTION FOG OFF THE LAKE (SVRL SHIP REPORTS OF 1/16 MILE OR LESS IN FOG) OR RADIATION FOG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS TO STAY UP SOME TONIGHT AS WIND TURNS NLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR MORE OF AN ADVECTION FOG OFF THE WATER. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE OVER MQT/ALGER COUNTIES WHERE N-NE WIND IS FAVORABLE WIND DIR FOR FOG OFF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY SLACKEN OFF ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO CAUSE MORE OF AN RADIATION TYPE FOG AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXCEPT THE WEST WHERE DRY AIR MAY COME IN IN TIME TO DRY THINGS OUT. BROAD NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. H8-H3 RH VALUES VERY LOW AND PWAT VALUES LOWER TO 0.50 INCH...SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DO NICELY. COULD BE A LITTLE BRZY IN THE AFTN WITH SOME MIXING AS 1000 FT WINDS ARE 15-20 KT. WITH THOSE WINDS AND THE FLOW OFF THE WATER...AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THRU THE DAY EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. PROBABLY BLO NORMAL INLAND AS WELL WITH H8 TEMPS LOWERING TO +15C BY DAYS END. BOTH THE AVN AND ETA SHOW SOME MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRETTY THIN...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO FINE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF THESE CLOUDS ARE TO HOLD TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT ON TUE NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE(DWPTS LOWERING TO UPR 40S)...AREAS COULD SEE PRETTY CHILLY TEMPS (UPR 40S-MID 50S). HOWEVER...WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH WIND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT AS GRADIENT HOLDS ON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THINKING IS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV ALL GUIDANCE VALUES CONSIDERING THAT THEY ALL HAVE WINDS GOING LIGHT...AND THEY DO NOT INDICATE ANY CLDS OVER THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR UPR 40S WILL BE OVER THE HURON MTNS SWD TO IRON RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST AND CLDS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IMPACT. MAYBE THE COOLEST DAY INLAND WILL BE WED AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO +9C BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GO WITH TOO MUCH OF A TEMP CHANGE SINCE THERE IS NOT AS MUCH WIND AND ONSHORE FLOW IS LESS. OVERALL...STILL VERY DRY WITH PWATS BLO 0.50 INCH. PRES GRAD BECOMES MUCH WEAKER...SO WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON WED. WED NIGHT AND THU WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. AVN SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVERHEAD...SO THAT COULD END UP BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND +9C. FRI THROUGH MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXTENDED. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN AMONG THE MODELS...AS ENSEMBLE CHARTS CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE OP MRF IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS E TROF/W RIDGE PATTERN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES WITH TEMPS OR PCPN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA IN GENERAL NWLY UPR FLOW...SO IT SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS. ONLY CHC OF RW/TRW WILL BE ON SAT AS A STRONGER VORTEX MOVES OUT OF THE NW TERRITORIES MOVES TO JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA SAT AFTN/NIGHT. DRYING AND HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPR MIDWEST ON MONDAY. MRF SHOWS +20C H8 AIR BY 00Z TUE...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SO MONDAY WILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. COORD WITH APX...THANKS. .MQT...NONE. MRD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1125 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 FCST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS ENDING SHRA. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THRU NRN WI/UPPER MI. MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN WI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND NOSE OF 50KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER 12Z KMSP SOUNDING. WIDESPREAD -SHRA/+SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. DECENT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE APPARENT JUST UPSTREAM IN MN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR KMSP WITH ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO UPPER MI. DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NRN MN AND APPROACHING NW LK SUPERIOR. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SHRA AREA SUGGESTS RAIN WILL END FROM NW EARLY THIS AFTN TO SE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT 12Z RUC/06Z ETA MUCH SLOWER. SEEMS A BIT ODD SINCE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THRU AREA NOW AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE APPARENT JUST UPSTREAM. 06Z ETA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE CURVE ON PRECIP AREA AS IT STILL INDICATED WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR/FAR NE MN BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND IT IS TOO FAR N WITH SFC LOW. ACTUALLY...06Z AVN APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING THAN 12Z RUC/06Z ETA. 12Z ETA LOOKING BETTER...BUT MAYBE STILL A BIT TOO SLOW. OVERALL...GOING FCST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS FA...BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO END PRECIP EARLIER IN FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL NOT END PRECIP EVERYWHERE THIS AFTN AS DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE A FEW SHRA IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER THE W DESPITE RESIDUAL STRATUS COVERAGE. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND JULY SUN SHOULD WORK TOGETHER TO PUNCH HOLES IN THE CLOUDS. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1000 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AS SOME RAIN LOOKS AS IF IT IS FINALLY HEADED FOR THE PARCHED SURFACES OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL NEAR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING A RAPID PASSAGE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD TRWS ARE FOUND IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER WISCONSIN. THIS IS WITHIN AREA OF VERY HIGH PW'S (> 2") WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. RUC GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION OF 00Z UA WIND FIELDS KEEPS THIS HEAVY ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHER SFC TD'S WILL COMBINE WITH RICH MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS TO INCREASE THE PW'S OVER WRN NEW YORK TO ARND 2" BY DAYBREAK. THIS PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH CAPES AT DAYBREAK EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 200 J/KG. THE REMNANTS OF TRWS ARE ALSO FOUND ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... BUT THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. COMPOSITE OF CANADIAN DOPPLERS SHOWS THAT THE ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONTINUITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE KEPT WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE BULK OF THE CORRESPONDING AFD WILL BE LEFT BELOW. ***************************************************** MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES...BRINGING DEW POINTS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 60S BY DAWN THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS ALL AGREE WITH THE BASIC SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SWOOPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. WITH THE MODELS...THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN QPF. THE NGM SHOWS A TENTH OR LESS...THE ETA IS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50...AND THE AVN PROVIDES FOR 1.5 INCHES OR MORE IN SPOTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...BOTH THE NGM AND ETA HAVE MUCH LESS OF A 850MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE AVN SUPPORTS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNRISE. NOT BEING ONE TO FOLLOW BIG BULLSEYES...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION ON AVERAGE...THOUGH BOTH THE AVN AND ETA SHOW A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY WITH A FLOW ALOFT THAT IS NOT VERY STRONG. WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITHOUT A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE DAY TUESDAY...THINK THE AIR MASS MAY RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING MAINLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE MID 60S. K INDICES ARE IN THE MID 30S...AND AS THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DIMINISHING SHEAR MAY KEEP MUCH FROM HAPPENING... BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...MORE IN THE AFTERNOON THAN IN THE MORNING AND PROBABLY ISOLATED AND MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. TENDED TO FORECAST TEMPS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE AVN...NGM...AND ETA ESPECIALLY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT TO GIVE SOME AFTERNOON CU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL BEFORE WARMING SOME AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND A SHIFT TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. MRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE. THE MRF IS FASTER WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THEN. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE STRONG PVA REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ON THE MRF AND THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DIMINISHES. PLAN TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS IMPROVING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...IF THE MRF VERIFIES...SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE BUF CWFA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...THOUGH...AS THE NEW AVN IS JUST A TOUCH SLOWER ON THE TIMING THAN THE 00Z MRF. .BUF...NONE. RSH/DJF ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1009 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND FAR SOUTHEAST ONTARIO ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF KINGSTON IN AN AREA WHERE THERE IS A THIN RIBBON OF HIGHER 850MB THETA-E AIR ON THE RUC AND PROGGED BY THE MESOETA...AND HIGHER SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS. LAST COUPLE OF RADAR IMAGES FROM THE KTYX 88D SHOW THESE SHOWERS TO BE FADING FAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON...AND GEORGIAN BAY...WHERE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR CORRELATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE RUC AND MESOETA TO NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN TERMS OF CONVERGENCE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MESOETA WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVES EAST... AND THE RUC SHARPENING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. RIBBON OF 850MB THETA-E AIR IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH SOME EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH CAPE VALUES MAINLY AT OR LESS THAN 200J/KG...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 500J/KG ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE MESOETA AND RUC SHOW FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION... AND NOT A LOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...EITHER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...SOME OF WHICH MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WHERE 850MB CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COINCIDE BY 00Z. AXIS OF 25-30KT 850MB WINDS IS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE FEELING THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF THOSE COUNTIES LATE...WILL LEAN TOWARD KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY EVERYWHERE AS IS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY EAST OF ROCHESTER...AND BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY MOST OTHER PLACES...SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND FORECAST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL RH. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AS WELL...WITH LOW DEW POINTS ALLOWING FOR GOOD WARMTH ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND...WESTERN ZONES. .BUF...NONE. DJF ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 944 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 NO ZFP UPDATE PLANNED. SFC RIDGE EXTENDS OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF THINNING CI MOVING IN FROM N. WDLY SCT SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER ERN NC PER 00Z MHX SOUNDING. FCST ON TRACK AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. CWF: LATEST RUC40 SUPPORTS FCST TREND OF WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES. .MHX...NONE. JBM nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 850 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002 ...STRONG STORM LIKELY TO MOVE INTO RRV BY EARLY MORNING... FCST UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. ANALYSIS/NEAR TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST HEATING CURVES...THOUGH DEWPTS ARE FALLING SLIGHTLY. EXPECT CONTINUED STEADY COOLING UNDER FAIR SKIES MOST OF THE EVENING. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN ERN MT IS PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 45KTS ...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN ND AROUND 3AM AND INTO THE RRV AROUND 6AM IF TRACK CONTINUES. MESOETA SHOWS 850MB JET DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY AS IT SHIFTS FROM ERN MT INTO CNTRL AND ERN ND ...LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING BLAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...RUC AND MESOETA ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING UPR LVL SYSTEM AND MID LVL VORTICITY MAXIMUM STEADILY INTO CNTRL ND BY EARLY MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC FORCING OVR ERN ND AND THE RRV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ...AT A TIME WHEN THE CAP IS QUITE WEAK. UPR LVL WINDS OVR GFK ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50-55KTS BY 12Z...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AND PROVIDE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN ND AND INTO THE RRV BY EARLY MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST AND WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL SUPPORT DEVELOPS AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO NERN SD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. .FGF...ESF FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GUST nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY 930 AM MDT MON JUL 08 2002 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN NE INTO CENTRAL WY. PRESSURE FALLS BEGINNING OVER CENTRAL MT/NORTH CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ID. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MT WITH LEE TROUGH IN THE USUAL LOCATION THROUGH WY. THUS...GRADIENT INCREASES QUITE A BIT. SFC-700MB THERMAL RIDGE ALSO BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH 18C BY 00Z FORECAST BY 12Z RUC. WITH UPDATE WILL RAISE WINDS SPEEDS OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND RAISE TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S LOOK PROBABLE. .UNR...NONE. HELGESON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 930 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2002 LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO BREAK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING ATTM. NEW RUC GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LOWER RH MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS LOW LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN WY AND WESTERN SODAK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE. WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS VEERING OF THE LOW LVL WINDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. TEMPS MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN IF CLOUDS BREAK FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. NEW RUC SFC TEMP GUIDANCE APPROACHES LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT THOUGH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...BUT WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES ATTM. .ABR...NONE. FAUCETTE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1025 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2002 MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS FLOW ALOFT WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT. THIS IS NOT ONLY HELPING TO KEEP SMOKE FROM THE QUEBEC FIRES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO FORECAST LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES. WITH THE FLOW HAVING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...IT WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ONLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LATEST RUC DATA SUGGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD BASED ON CHANGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA. UPDATED ZONES TO BE SENT NO LATER THAN 1040 AM. EVENSON .BTV...NONE. vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002 FCST FOCUS ON MORE LIMITED CHC FOR PCPN THIS EVENING...THEN COOLER AND EXTENDED DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. VERY POSITIVE TILT TO WEAK TROF THRU DEEP LAYER...PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE WRLY FLOW AT MOST LEVELS. LLV CONVERGENCE LIMITED AS SFC LOW AND ASSOC CDFNT ARE WEAK. ORIENTATION OF APPROACHING BNDRY ALSO PRECLUDES GOOD LLV FORCING. SOUNDINGS ARE WARM WHICH IS LIMITING AVAILABLE CAPE. CAPES OFF THE NEW 12Z ETA PROG SOUNDINGS FOR MSN HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW 1000 FOR THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LO/MID 90S WITH DWPNTS LO/MID 70S. SFC BASED LI/S AT -8. MODIFIED RUC40 SOUNDINGS GIVEN CURRENT NUMBERS SHOW CAPES OF 4000J/KG. AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH THREAT FOR STORMS STILL REAL. ETA QPF ACTUALLY SHOWS QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISHING AFTER 18Z...PRODUCING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MKE AND LESS THAN 1/2 INCH AT MSN FOR THE EVENT. WL HANG ONTO CHCY POPS UNTIL BNDRY COMES THRU. LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. DWPNTS SLOW TO SCOUR ON TUES...BUT DRY AIR TO EVENTUALLY MIX IN. WED-FRI LOOKING AT OR BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPS. DWPNTS BACK TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVEL. UNFORTUNATELY...MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD INTO ANOTHER 5 DAYS OR SO OF DRY WEATHER. GUID TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY ETA MOS EARLY IN FCST RANGE. .MKX...NONE. $$ DAVIS wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW UPR TROF DEEPENING OVR ERN CAN/NE CONUS AS SHRTVW IN GRT LKS RESPONSIBLE FOR TDAYS RA AND ANOTHER SHRTWV IN ONTARIO LWRG HGTS IN THIS AREA. UPR HGTS BLDG ACRS SCNTRL CAN IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV IN MT THAT IS MOVG E FM LARGER SCALE TROF OFF PAC NW...HI CLD AHD OF THIS SYS MOVG INTO NRN PLAINS. WEAK RDG OF HI PRES BTWN COLD FNTS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO AND GRT LKS SHRTWVS DOMINATING CWA ATTM. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALF DOWNSTREAM OF RDGING IN SCNTRL CAN HAS CLRD CLDS OVR LINGERING LLVL MSTR (SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S)...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SUP/MI SHORES. LK SUP PRETTY MUCH COVERED BY FOG PER VISFOG IMAGERY. VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF MSTR APRNT ACRS SRN CAN TO N OF ONTARIO SHRTWV COLD FNT...00Z PWAT ABOUT 1.05 INCHES AT INL (SFC DWPT 63) SDNG REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS NOW OVR CWA BUT DOWN TO 0.51 INCH AT CYPL (SFC DWPT 43). PRES BEGINNING TO RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN CENTRAL ONTARIO (UP TO 3MB/3HRS) UNDER 90KT H3 JET MAX NR YPL. UPSTREAM YPL SDNG SHOWS WELL MIXED PBL UP TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H8...WHICH HELPED MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM BEHIND COLD FNT RISE TO 75 TO 80. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TEMPS AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SCNTRL CAN RDG DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK AND FORCG SHRTWV NOW MOVG THRU MT TO DIG SE AND STAY W OF CWA. XPCT DIGGING H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO TO DRIVE DRIER AIR AT YPL INTO CWA TDAY AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD LK SUP BY 00Z WED. WITH THE ADVENT OF INSOLATION/MIXING THIS MRNG...XPCT FOG/LO CLD TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY OVR LAND MASS IN ABSENCE OF HIER CLDS. PROCESS WL LIKELY BE SLOWER OVR LK SUP AND THE NR SHORE WITH STABILIZING NNELY FLOW OFF CHILLY WATER IN ADVANCE OF SFC RDG. XCPT FOR THE MRNG FOG/ST...XPCT SCT CU TO DVLP OVR INTERIOR SCNTRL AREAS LATE MRNG BEFORE LO LVL DRY AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST DURG THE AFTN AND ERODES THIS CLD. VERY DRY MID LVLS AND SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIMIT DEPTH OF CNVCTN. OTRW...LEADING EDGE OF HI CLD APRCHG FM THE PLAINS SHUD DSPT AS IT MOVES TOO FAR E INTO NWLY FLOW ALF...BUT SOME SCT CI WL LIKELY REACH WRN ZNS LATE IN DAY. OBSVD MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM AND ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE DEPICTED ON YPL SDNG SUG HIER MAV FCST GUIDANCE APPROPRIATE FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FM COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP... WHERE TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER. SFC RDG PROGGED TO BLD E THRU ONTARIO TNGT. A FEW HI CLDS AHD OF SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU PLAINS MAY BRUSH WRN ZNS TNGT...BUT INCRSG NLY WND COMPONENT FCST AT H5 SHUD DEFLECT THE UPR LO AND THE MAJORITY OF THIS CLD TO THE SE. OTRW SKIES WL BE MCLR. MODELS SHOW AXIS OF LOWEST PWAT (NR 0.5 INCH) MOVG ACRS CWA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH CORE OF DRIEST AIR MOVES OVHD...WITH MAIN HI CENTER REMAINING FAR TO N AM CONCERNED NELY GRADIENT FLOW WL REMAIN HI ENUF DURG NGT TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. DWPTS UPSTREAM DROPPING INTO 40S...SO MOS FCST MINS INTO THE UPR 40S PROBABLY RSNBL FOR INLAND AREAS THAT CAN DECOUPLE. PTCHY HI CLD OVR THE W MAY HOLD TEMPS THERE UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT THESE PLACES MORE SHELTERED FM NE WND. RDG/DRY AIR FCST TO REMAIN DOMINANT WED AND THU. HI CLDS SKIRTING THE WRN ZNS TNGT WL DSPT ON WED AS PLAINS SHRTWV CONTS SE. ETA HINTS AT BACKDOOR COLD FROPA WED AFTN OVR THE E...BUT AIRMASS WL BE PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW AC ALG THE WSHFT. OTRW... JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU INLAND DURG THE DAY AWAY FM STABILIZING LK BREEZE. CONTD NELY FLOW ON WED FAVORS LK SUP MODERATION AND S OF ESC ON BAY OF GREEN BAY. HI CENTER MOVES OVHD ON THU...SO MORE EVEN LK BREEZE MODERATION FM LKS SUP/MI. WITH PWATS FCST ARND 0.5 INCH AND HI CENTER OVHD WED NGT...XPCT LARGE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMP OVR INLAND AREAS. MOS FCST TEMPS CONSISTENT AND RSNBL WITH XPCTD H85 TEMPS ARND 10-11C ON WED AND 12-13C ON THU. .MQT...NONE. KC mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW VORT CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN QUEBEC. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK WAVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH BROAD TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BACK NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. MAIN QUESTION IS WITH ONGOING PRECIP COVERAGE TO START THE MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BETTER CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR THE 30KT 850MB JET...ALSO CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DEEPER INTO THE THETA-E RIDGE. RADAR TAKING ON MORE OF A GENERAL STRATIFORM LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE NOT MAKING A LOT OF PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. ALSO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO PICKED UP. WILL HOLD FOR A LAST MINUTE LOOK AT THE RADAR...BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A COVERAGE OF SCATTERED NORTH/PROBABLY CENTRAL AS WELL AND LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SOUTH FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. BEYOND THE INITIAL PRECIP...NEXT FOCUS IS ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. CONVECTION SINKING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...BUT FRONT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS YET. 12Z ETA/03Z RUC SIMILAR BRINGING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE DROPPING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH RUC STILL KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA. AVN IS FASTER...WITH THE WAVE TO THE THUMB AT 06Z AND INTO ONTARIO BY 12Z. ETA ALSO TRIES TO LINGER BOUNDARY/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE PUSH AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. ETA/AVN BOTH LINGER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F THROUGH THE DAY /BEFORE DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE 50S TONIGHT/. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING...CAPES CONTINUE UP TO 1000J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AT MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DROPPING TO 30C 500MB AND ABOVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD HELP CAP ANY AMBITIOUS AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT. SHOULD BE ABLE TO CARRY POPS TO COVER STORMS THIS MORNING THEN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY LITTLE PROGRESS AS 500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY DROP A FEW DAM AS MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM STAYS WEST OF THE STATE...BUT WILL HOLD HEIGHTS PRETTY STEADY AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. BOTH ETA/AVN SHOW DRY AIR OVER THE CWA WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...WITH MAIN CLOUD CONCERNS DEBRIS BLOWOFF FROM THE PLAINS. COLD ADVECTION DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AVN INDICATING A REBOUND TO NEAR 12Z ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST TO THE NORTH. .DTX...NONE. BRAVENDER mi EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 WEAK SFC LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KT. ALOFT...RUC AND MESOETA SHOW THE 500 MB WAVE JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH A 500 MB HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE TIMING VERY WELL...BUT COVERAGE IS NEARLY 100%. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INDICATE THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTN. LIKELY POPS OVER THE INTERIOR LOOK GOOD. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SWIFTLY INLAND...AND HEATING WILL BE MORE STUNTED THAN YESTERDAY. PLAN TO BUMP HIGHS DOWN FOR TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR. MARINE...DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 ...90-93F TDY THEN BKN-SOLID RW-/TRW+ 19Z-03Z REPLACED BY NR RECORD CHILL THU OR FRI AM IN THE COUNTRYSIDE THEN RETURN TO DRY WARMTH PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WKND... FCST: EXPCT ADJUSTMENTS NEXT 12 HRS AT 1140 AM. MAY B MAKING OTHER AMDS TO THE ZONES VERY EARLY THIS AFTN IF OTHER MODELS JOIN. 12Z/ETA NOW HAS .50 ON ORH IN 6 HRS ENDING 00Z AND CONCERN CONTS FOR ISO SVR. THATS THE BUF-UCA STRIP OF MDT RW YOU SEE ON RADAR NOW. RTE 2 SWD CONTS TO LOOK SIGNIFICANT FOR SOME SORT OF QPF THIS AFTN/EVE. SVR: FOR NOW ISO MARGINAL SVR STILL POSS. WILL UPDATE SPS ARD 1130 AM PENDING RECEIPT OF AVN MODEL. 12Z RUC/ETA FROM NCEP AND 06Z RUC FM FSL CONT TO FCST SHWR OUTBREAK THIS AFTN BOS-BDL WWD AXIS. SOUNDING ANALYSIS OF ALB SHOWS WE FIRST GET 90-92 DRY HEAT THEN LOOKING AT BUF... WE GO UNSTABLE. ANY TSTM OCCURRENCE MVMT SHUD BE 3020. TROP AT 43K AND EST RAOB MODIFIED CTOP SHUD B 39-45K SO WILL LOOK FOR VIL 50 (IF ANY) TO BE OUR FIRST PRIMARY SVR INDICATOR. EL WILL B DOWN LWR ARD 35K. DECENT 3H 80 KT SPD MAX YMW. NOTE FOLLOWING VULNERABLE RER LOW: WORDED NEAR RECORD CHILL FOR BDL THU AM..MAY NEED TO DO THE SAME FOR PVD THIS AFTN. THU AM 7/11 FRI AM 7/12 BDL 52-1986 48-1978 PVD 53-1953 52-1945 NEXT WKND: 12Z/8 EC AND 00Z/9 MRF OP RUNS FOM MRF AND UKMET KEEP MID ATLC SYSTEM SOUTH OF SNE BUT ALL GIVE US A CHC OF A SHWR NEXT MON. MRF ENS PAINT A THREATENING PICTURE FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH PW ANOM OF +3SD OVR WOONSOCKET RI. NO CHG YET ON EXTENDED. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: REGATHERING HEAT IN THE ROCKY MTN/W PLAINS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE A RUN FOR US MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER IT CUTS OFF IN THE NW FLOW IS STILL UP FOR GRABS BUT A 1-2 PRD OF 90-97 IS POSSIBLE VCNTY 7/17-18. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SCA ALL S COAST TDY . DRAG ma SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1109 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV)...REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP. QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON THE H20 LOOP. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF PORT HURON TO HOLLAND. THE LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH AND EXITING THE STATE BETWEEN 17 AND 18Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...1000 J/KG ON 12Z KDTX SOUNDING...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS DEVELOPING DIURNAL CU IN REGIONS THAT HAVE CLEARED. I STILL THINK THAT AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE PARTLY SKIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL LEAVE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AS IS EXPECTING SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPDATED TO ZFPDTX WILL BE ISSUED BY 1530 UTC. .DTX...NONE. CONSIDINE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN ISSUED BY NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1115 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002 BUMPED TEMPS UP A NOTCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE INL SOUNDING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN NC AND NE MN NEAR 80. NWRN WISC WL BE THE WARMEST WITH MOST SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WIND. SIREN TO PHILLIPS ALREADY NEARING 80 BUT WILL KEEP THAT AREA IN THE LOWER 80S AMID NELY FLOW. ONLY OTHER ITEM WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA TO THE INL/GPZ CORRIDOR WITH INCOMING MOISTURE ALREADY INTO NWRN MN AND LATEST RUC DEPICTS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING IN...AND SLIGHT COOLING AT 7H IN NC MN. .DLH...NONE KRAUSE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1125 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 THE LATEST AVAILABLE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A DETROIT-BUFFALO-WATERTOWN LINE AND SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT LINE SHOWS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON OR SO. AN EXAMINATION OF THE REGIONAL 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FOUND ACROSS LAKE ERIE IN ADVANCE OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NICELY DEPICTED BY BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC. THE RUC TAKES THIS SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE OHIO/WRN PA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH I EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO ALSO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR DISPLAY...I'M CONTINUING WITH THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE GOING WITH A MIX OF CHANCE/SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT PER THE LATEST VISIBLE LOOP...I EXPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL...PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WEALTH OF CLOUDS...I AM ALSO TRIMMING BACK THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR MOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH I'M JUST BROADENING THE TEMP RANGE DOWNWARD TO 75 TO 80...WHILE WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY VERY WELL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE BUF/IAG/ROC AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD CONCEIVABLY BE THE WARMEST PART OF OUR CWA...I'M BOOSTING MAXES TO AROUND 80 THERE. I'VE ALSO REFRESHED THE WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. THE ZONES ARE LOOOONG GONE. THANX FOR COORD CLE! .BUF...NONE. JJR ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1037 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002 UPDATING FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CLEAN UP PRECIP WORDING. NO CURRENT ECHOES DEVELOPING ON RADAR BUT DO EXPECT STORMS TO REFIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS NO DOUBT LEFT A FEW BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND. CANNOT SEE THEM JUST NOW...BUT DO KNOW THAT THERE IS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS FAR WESTERN CWA. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN NOW IN THE PROCESS OF RESETTING AND EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL CWA BY 21Z AS PER CURRENT RUC40 MODEL DATA. DISCUSSION ONGOING THIS MORNING FOR SPECIAL UPPER AIR RELEASE AROUND 18Z. VGP...EHI...AND 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR PARAMETERS ALL FAVORING TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH PLENTY OF CAPE TO GO AROUND. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM. .ABR...NONE. DORN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 608 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002 A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LINDEN TO ASHLAND CITY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA SOLUTIONS SHOW THE CONTINUING EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TN RIVER. THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE FORECAST AND UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. .BNA...NONE. 21 tn EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 CURRENTLY...EC FL IS UNDERNEATH A COL REGION BETWEEN 300-500 MB...AN AREA OF CALM WINDS BETWEEN TROUGHING TO OUR SW AND NE...AND RIDGING TO THE NW AND SE. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE MORNING XMR SOUNDING AS WELL AS RUC ANALYSIS. AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START THIS MORNING AND SHIFTED INLAND DURING THE DAY. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOW EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST. COVERAGE WAS ABOUT 100% ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE THIS MORNING...BUT MUCH LESS OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET. STRONGEST WIND TO BE RECORDED BY ONE OF OUR SENSORS WAS A GUST TO 38 MPH AT 1230 PM AT DAB. TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. FLOW IS GRADUALLY VEERING AS RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH CLOSER TO US...SO SHOWERS WILL TEND TO STAY CLOSER TO THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH REDUCED INLAND PENETRATION. PLAN TO KEEP 20% NORTH COAST AND 30% SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL EVENING POP FOR THE INTERIOR. MUCH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA WAS NOT WORKED OVER WITH CONVECTION...SO A LITTLE CONCERNED STORMS MAY REFIRE IF HEATING RETURNS. WED...AVN AND MESOETA HAVE DONE A FLIP-FLOP ON THE SFC LOW IN THE GULF WITH THE AVN NOW THE "DEEPER" ONE AT 1013 MB. THE MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING SOUTH DOWN THE SC/GA COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER OUR WINDS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. MODELS BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE ATLC WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.8". THIS IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST... TRANSITIONING TO THE INTERIOR BY AFTN. BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH ALONG THE COAST AS WE SAW THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE 40% COAST AND 50% INLAND. THU...SFC LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL GET PULLED NORTH AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE AXIS WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PENINSULA PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS INTERIOR WITH A SE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. DEVELOPING SSW WINDS AT H7 AND H85 WILL KEEP THE DRIER AIR OVER THE ATLC AT BAY. WITH STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE...DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT BETTER RAIN CHANCES...SO WILL CONTINUE 50% POPS COASTAL/INLAND. FRI-SUN...AVN DEEPENS SFC LOW ACROSS AL/MS TO 1008 MB IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS MO WHILE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS S FL. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...DELAYING IF NOT PROHIBITING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS FAVORING THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. MON-TUE...RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL REDUCE THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO NOT BE AS WARM ESP ALONG THE COAST. MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH...REACHING SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THU...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS FRI. PRELIM... DAB BB 072/089 072/090 072 242 MCO TT 073/090 073/091 073 252 MLB BB 073/087 072/088 072 342 .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DOWNEAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAD INITIALLY PLANNED TO MENTION ISOLATED DONWEAST AREA...BUT MAY REMOVE MENTION. FRONTAL WAVE MOVING E FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE COAST. AVN ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS MEASURABLE RAINFALL INLAND. BASED ON CURRENT SAT/RADAR IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE... BUT WILL INLCUDE A LOW POP FOR COASTAL ZONES. HAZY CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING OVER THE N ALL READY AS SMOKE FROM QUEBEC RETURNS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED AS CANADIAN HIGH TRIES TO BUILD E AND LOW PRESSRUE DEVELOPS TO THE E. HENCE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD TURBULENT MIXING WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE SMOKE TOMORROW IN LOWER LEVELS. MODEL ENSEMBLE NOW CONSISTENT BRINGING A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE SUN NIGHT... BUT WILL LEAVE LIKELY WORDING FOR MON FOR NOW WITH NEXT COLD FRONT. AVN MOS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FWC/ETA FOR HIGHS NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH APPEARS ON THE HIGH SIDE BASED ON COLD ADVECTION. WILL TREND TOWARD ETA NUMBERS. AVN ENSEMBLE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN LONG TERM SO WILL GENERALLY USE OPERATIONAL MEX NUMBERS. COASTAL WATERS....WINDS JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT/WED. .CAR...NONE. GABRIC me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 435 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 ...90-92F OCCURRED TDY NOW A BAND OF BKN-SOLID RW/ISO TRW+ THRU 05Z REPLACED BY NR RECORD CHILL THU OR FRI AM IN THE COUNTRYSIDE THEN RETURN TO DRY WARMTH PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WKND... SEE 18Z ETA/RUC AND SOON TO ARRIVE 18Z AVN FOR THIS EVENINGS QPF. SHUD DO A NICE WRINGING OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...GOOD FOR THE GARDENS. NOTE FOLLOWING VULNERABLE RER LOW: WORDED NEAR RECORD CHILL FOR BDL THU AM. THU AM 7/11 FRI AM 7/12 BDL 52-1986 48-1978 PVD 53-1953 52-1945 MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: REGATHERING HEAT IN THE ROCKY MTN/W PLAINS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE A RUN FOR US MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER IT CUTS OFF IN THE NW FLOW IS STILL UP FOR GRABS BUT A 1-2 PRD OF 90-97 IS POSSIBLE VCNTY 7/17-18. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...LEFTOVER SCA ALL S COAST THIS EVE. DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 530 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 ...UPDATED FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NW CWA THIS EVENING... THE COMBINATION OF SFC WIND CONVERGENCE (NNE WINDS INTO ENE WINDS)... MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE CONVERGENCE LINE... AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE (SEEN ON WV IMAGE LOOP)... SFC BASED LI NEAR -3 ARE ALL ACTING TOGETHER TO KEEP A NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE RUC PICKED THIS FEATURE UP BEST AND WAS USED AS MY PRIMARY FORECAST TOOL. THE COMBINATION OF SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD KILL THE CONVECTION BY 10 PM. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 233 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002 WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA AT THIS TYPING. GENERALLY, WILL NEED TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES. WILL KEEP THIS IN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER STRONGER AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT EVENT IS VERY LIMITED AND WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM ZIPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAM .BGM...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS. SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUNCHING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ROUNDING TOP OF SAID RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PREFERENCE LEANS HEAVY ON RUC/MESO ETA FOR TONIGHT PERIOD WITH MESO ETA USED THROUGHOUT DAY 2 AND AVN PICKING UP THE REMAINS FOR DAY 3. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DESCREPANCIES THIS MORNING. AVN APPEARED A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM AT 700MB BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. RUC/MESO ETA MODEL ALSO DOING A BETTER JOB RIGHT NOW IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. TONIGHT...RUC AND MESO ETA MODEL DEPICTING HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL CWA AND BY 06Z OVER EASTERN CWA. INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. JUST WAITING FOR THE LOW LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT TO PICK UP THE PACE. VGP OVER 0.3 AND EHI OVER 2.5 BEING ADVERTISED TODAY BY THE RUC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH 0-3KM WIND SHEAR VECTOR EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 45 AND 90 DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTATION...COULD SEE SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO LINEAR SQUALL LINE TYPE SCENARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE "COLUMN"...SO POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTREME EAST...FOR HEAVY RAINERS. THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP AND COORDINATION CHANHASSEN. WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PASSES OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA. WITH DECENT COOLING BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND TRUE SURFACE TO 850MB CAA...IF THERE IS TO BE ANY...TO START BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AND CARRY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTER STARTS PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM CWA. EXPECT WINDS TO COME UP SOMEWHAT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS ON THE REBOUND ON FRIDAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. ALSO HAVE INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING FROM MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED ON CWA. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN US THROUGH MON. AVN EXT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW...AND THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. W US RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...INDICATING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AVN EXT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS MN AND WI SAT NITE INTO SUN. THE MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUDNARY WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA INTO MN AND WI. WITH CURRENT MODEL PROJECTION OF THE PAC NW TROF MOVING E AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GRT PLAINS ON TUE INTO WED...THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .ABR...NONE. DORN/ALBRECHT sd