FXUS63 KMKX 240808
AFDMKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2003

FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS TODAY AND SUBSEQUENT FIRE WX
CONCERNS AND THEN HANDLING POPS THRU FCST PERIOD.

ETA CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY ADVECT HOT PROD WITH +24 H8 AIR INTO
CWA TODAY. NGM/GFS NOT AS BOLD WITH H8 TEMPS...BUT STILL SHOWING
H8 TEMPS GETTING INTO L20S. A RELATIVELY DRY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
INITIALLY...ESP WHEN LOOKING AT UPSTREAM DEW POINTS INTO IA/MO KS...
SO MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR JUICIER DEW POINTS TO GET IN HERE. BUFFY
SOUNDINGS ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WITH CONSIDERABLE T/TD SPREADS AS
DRIER AIR FROM ABV GETS MIXED DOWN ALONG WITH SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOOK OF GOING FCST WITH THE HIGHER END TEMPS...ESP
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR FULL SUN...ESP LTR MRNG/AFTN HRS. GIVEN HOW DRY
THINGS HAVE BEEN...COULD STILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...THO APPEARS CONDS
WILL COME UP SHORT OF RED FLAG ACTION.

AS FAR AS PCPN POTENTIAL GOES...ALSO A STICKY WICKY. UPR RDG AXIS
CONTINUES TO EDGE EWD FROM NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. TSTMS ON NOSE OF LLJ/WAA
ACRS NE WI DRIFTG SEWD AND SAT/RDR TRENDS WOULD TAKE THIS JUST NORTH
OF FDL/SBM CNTYS THIS MRNG. THEN RH SCOURS OUT AS BEST WAA SHIFTS
EAST OF CWA WITH TIME TODAY. UPR FLO PROGGD TO FLATTEN A BIT WITH
TIME AND THIS DVLPS H2-H3 DVRG THIS EVE AND OVERNGT. WK FRONTAL ZONE
PROGGD BY ALL MODELS TO SLIDE SWD THRU CWA. ELEVATED INSTAB QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE BLO 8K AND CIN NUMBERS
ARE VRY HIGH. SWODY1 BRINGS SLGT INTO WRN CWA AND ENUF POS FACTORS TO
MAINTAIN THE GOING CHC...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE LIKELY ETA MOS
POPS ATTM.

MON THRU ERLY TUE WILL ALSO BRING MORE CHCS FOR TSTMS AS RENEWED
LOW PRES APPCHS AND RTNS BNDRY NWD THRU CWA AS WRM FNT AND THEN
COLD FROPA ERLY TUE. CAPES ARND 2K WITH EHI NUMBERS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
MON AFTN/EVE IN WRN CWA...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE IN ERN CWA. IN FACT
CIN CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HIGH ON BUFFY SOUNDINGS IN MKE THRU ERLY
TUE AS LOW LEVELS PROGGD TO REMAIN VRY DRY.

CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SYS APPCH FOR LTR
WED NGT AND INTO THU.

.MKX...NONE.

$$