####018010306#### FXUS61 KBOX 112007 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 307 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE BUT DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK WLY BL FLOW BEHIND WFROPA MAY BECOME SE SEA BREEZES MIDDAY ALONG THE E MASS COAST. OTRW PREVAILING ISOBARIC SW FLOW THIS AFTN...LIGHT AND MILD. MWN WB IS 28...NORMALLY OFFERING 68F. CLOUDS INVADE LATE THIS AFTN. SNOWCOVER AND LACK OF MIXING REDUCES 68F POTENTIAL...BUT POORLY MODELED SFC TEMPS BY EVEN THE 12Z MODELS /SNOWPACK SKIN TEMP PBLM AND LACK OF MXG/ PLUS THE WARM 11AM REALITY REQUIRED A WARMING AN UPGRADE INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR PTNS OF INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ALL PUBLIC KBOX PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED AGAIN AROUND 1135AM TO WARM TEMPS AND ADJUST SKYCOVER. CONTD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH LATER THIS AFTN PER 1640Z RADAR AND 09Z SREF 3HRLY POP FOR .01 WHICH STILL OFFERS A 30 TO 45 PCT CHC OF SHOWERS RTE 2 NORTHWARD IN THE 20Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. CORRESPONDINGLY... AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW BAND OF TOTAL TOTALS INDICES NEAR 50...SHOWALTER INDICES FROM 0 TO -2... AND K INDICES FROM 30 TO 33 MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT TYPICAL TO FORECAST THUNDER IN MID FEBRUARY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS FROM 1-2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TO 30 TO 40 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... OR IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MODELS...OFF THE NJ COAST...AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STEAL OUR THUNDER...AS IT WERE. IT MAY FOCUS THE ENERGY THERE INSTEAD OF OVER US. MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE ANY LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES THO TRANSFER POTENTIAL HAS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BEST TRANSFER LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHERN NH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRIDAY... DRIER AND CHILLY AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH MAKING IF FEEL COLDER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER OF TODAY AND THURSDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER OUR REGION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAKEN. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER THIS TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW WOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ALSO SLOWER. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND HAS IT OVER NEW YORK CITY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH ALL THAT SAID THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ALL KNOW THAT TRACKS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CAN CHANGE DRASTICALLY IN THIS TIME RANGE. THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS FAR OUT...SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREA OF ALTOCU OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS...THIS IS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA 19-1930Z. ALSO A PATCH OF 2500 CIGS IN WESTERN CT MOVING NORTHEAST...THIS IS SHRINKING WITH TIME BUT MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS TO BDL AND BAF BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CONNECTICUT AREA OF CLOUDS SEPARATES AIRMASSES...LIGHT WIND AND DEWPOINTS OF 33 TO 40 NORTH/EAST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS 45 TO 55 SOUTH/WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA...ROUGHLY 1930Z TO 2230Z. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER VIRGINIA...THIS REACHES US AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS AN AREA OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. OBSERVED CIGS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE...WE BROUGHT THESE VALUES THROUGH STARTING 04Z- 07Z AND DEPARTING 09Z-13Z. NAM AND GFS STABILITY FORECASTS BRING THROUGH TOTAL TOTALS OF 50-55...THIS AND UPSTREAM HISTORY SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WHILE THE STRONGEST VALUES REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH...950 MB WIND SPEEDS OVER ACK-HYA-FMH AND POSSIBLY PVD CLIMB TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WE WILL ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THESE TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. WE MAINTAINED BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED VALUES. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SUSTAINED WINDS...WE TARGETED 18-22 KNOTS BASED ON LOW LEVEL WINDS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD IMPROVE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WE USED VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON FORECAST WINDS AT 950 MB. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...VFR DESPITE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... TODAY...SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TODAY. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE MASS WATERS. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTN E MASS COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT...STRONG SCA. POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE GUSTS LATE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO WSW LATE. CHANCE OF TSTMS LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND 5 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SATURDAY...SCA WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS MAY REMAIN AT SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LEFT OVER SWELL. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION PROMOTING DECENT MIXING...WE MAY SEE SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN JANUARY...ALLOWING THE FORMATION OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RIVER ICE IN FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. ICE COVERAGE IS SUFFICIENT IN THIS AREA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT THAW AND RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT COULD BRING A RISK OF BREAKUP ICE JAMS. A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SNOW PACK IS NOT YET RIPE IN THE FAR INTERIOR...ALTHOUGH SOME MELT IS ANTICIPATED. WITH GENERALLY LOW QPF /0.25 TO 0.5 INCH/ AND SHORT WARMUP...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR BREAK UP ICE JAMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ008>013-015>024. NH...NONE. RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237- 250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAF SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAF LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...WTB/FRANK MARINE...DRAG/FRANK HYDROLOGY...GAF ####018010319#### FXUS61 KBOX 112007 RRA AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 307 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE BUT DRY WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK WLY BL FLOW BEHIND WFROPA MAY BECOME SE SEA BREEZES MIDDAY ALONG THE E MASS COAST. OTRW PREVAILING ISOBARIC SW FLOW THIS AFTN...LIGHT AND MILD. MWN WB IS 28...NORMALLY OFFERING 68F. CLOUDS INVADE LATE THIS AFTN. SNOWCOVER AND LACK OF MIXING REDUCES 68F POTENTIAL...BUT POORLY MODELED SFC TEMPS BY EVEN THE 12Z MODELS /SNOWPACK SKIN TEMP PBLM AND LACK OF MXG/ PLUS THE WARM 11AM REALITY REQUIRED A WARMING AN UPGRADE INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR PTNS OF INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ALL PUBLIC KBOX PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED AGAIN AROUND 1135AM TO WARM TEMPS AND ADJUST SKYCOVER. CONTD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH LATER THIS AFTN PER 1640Z RADAR AND 09Z SREF 3HRLY POP FOR .01 WHICH STILL OFFERS A 30 TO 45 PCT CHC OF SHOWERS RTE 2 NORTHWARD IN THE 20Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. CORRESPONDINGLY... AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A NARROW BAND OF TOTAL TOTALS INDICES NEAR 50...SHOWALTER INDICES FROM 0 TO -2... AND K INDICES FROM 30 TO 33 MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT TYPICAL TO FORECAST THUNDER IN MID FEBRUARY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS FROM 1-2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE MAY SEE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TO 30 TO 40 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... OR IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MODELS...OFF THE NJ COAST...AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STEAL OUR THUNDER...AS IT WERE. IT MAY FOCUS THE ENERGY THERE INSTEAD OF OVER US. MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY WILL BE ANY LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES THO TRANSFER POTENTIAL HAS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BEST TRANSFER LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHERN NH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRIDAY... DRIER AND CHILLY AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH MAKING IF FEEL COLDER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER OF TODAY AND THURSDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER OUR REGION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LOW TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAKEN. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER THIS TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM THIS FAR NORTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW WOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ALSO SLOWER. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND HAS IT OVER NEW YORK CITY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH ALL THAT SAID THERE IS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ALL KNOW THAT TRACKS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CAN CHANGE DRASTICALLY IN THIS TIME RANGE. THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS FAR OUT...SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREA OF ALTOCU OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS...THIS IS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA 19-1930Z. ALSO A PATCH OF 2500 CIGS IN WESTERN CT MOVING NORTHEAST...THIS IS SHRINKING WITH TIME BUT MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS TO BDL AND BAF BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CONNECTICUT AREA OF CLOUDS SEPARATES AIRMASSES...LIGHT WIND AND DEWPOINTS OF 33 TO 40 NORTH/EAST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS 45 TO 55 SOUTH/WEST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA...ROUGHLY 1930Z TO 2230Z. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER VIRGINIA...THIS REACHES US AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS AN AREA OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS. OBSERVED CIGS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE...WE BROUGHT THESE VALUES THROUGH STARTING 04Z- 07Z AND DEPARTING 09Z-13Z. NAM AND GFS STABILITY FORECASTS BRING THROUGH TOTAL TOTALS OF 50-55...THIS AND UPSTREAM HISTORY SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WHILE THE STRONGEST VALUES REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH...950 MB WIND SPEEDS OVER ACK-HYA-FMH AND POSSIBLY PVD CLIMB TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WE WILL ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THESE TAFS. CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD ANY CLEARING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. WE MAINTAINED BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED VALUES. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SUSTAINED WINDS...WE TARGETED 18-22 KNOTS BASED ON LOW LEVEL WINDS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD IMPROVE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WE USED VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON FORECAST WINDS AT 950 MB. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...VFR DESPITE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... TODAY...SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TODAY. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE MASS WATERS. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTN E MASS COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT...STRONG SCA. POSSIBLE MARGINAL GALE GUSTS LATE. WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO WSW LATE. CHANCE OF TSTMS LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND 5 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SATURDAY...SCA WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS MAY REMAIN AT SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LEFT OVER SWELL. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION PROMOTING DECENT MIXING...WE MAY SEE SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN JANUARY...ALLOWING THE FORMATION OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RIVER ICE IN FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. ICE COVERAGE IS SUFFICIENT IN THIS AREA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT THAW AND RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT COULD BRING A RISK OF BREAKUP ICE JAMS. A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SNOW PACK IS NOT YET RIPE IN THE FAR INTERIOR...ALTHOUGH SOME MELT IS ANTICIPATED. WITH GENERALLY LOW QPF /0.25 TO 0.5 INCH/ AND SHORT WARMUP...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR BREAK UP ICE JAMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAM OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ008>013-015>024. NH...NONE. RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237- 250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAF SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAF LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...WTB/FRANK MARINE...DRAG/FRANK HYDROLOGY...NMB