March 1965 Julian W. Posey 1 89 THEWEATHER ANDCIRCULATION OF DECEMBER 1964 Record-Breaking Floods in the Northwest JULIAN W. POSEY Extended Forecast Division, National Meteorological Center, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C. 1. HIGHLIGHTS The floods of northern California and Oregon in the latter half of December were the most important weather- related phenomena during the month in the United States. Very he:~vy rtlin that fell from the 19th to the 23d caused unprecedented flood waters in scores of river communities from northern Ctdifornia coustal drainage areas through western Oregon. Ewlier storms had set up antecedent soil and surface conditions that contributed to the flood situation, m d h t e r heavy rnins delayed the return of the rivers t o normnl. Mtlny high water records established during the Cttristn1;Ls week of 1955 were exceeded, in some instances by as much ns 10 ft. or more. Thousands of persons were driven from their homes by the flood waters. Numerous commrt rtities were isolated as highways and bridges were closed or washed out. Some communities, such as IUnmatth Glen, Calif., were totally destroyed. At least 40 persons lost their lives as a direct or indirect result of the floods [I ]. Scattered and locdly severe flooding also occurred in Idaho, Washington, ;~d Newda. The Sacranlento River in California rose to signific:mt levels, but flood control projects of recent years kept this river in the bankful stage at Smratnento. Scattered flooding also occurred tts far south 11s the SrLn Jonquin Basin in California. Another nmjor weuther feature of December was a blizzard t h t crossed the Northern PlrLins during the 15th and 1Gth wtd cnrlsed heavy losses in cattle and sheep. This storm also contributed to the flood situation of the west coast, for i t precipitated hetLvy snows o~7er the western 1nollnt;Lins. .Later tnuch .of the snow in the Coastal m d ClLsctLde Ranges melted during the heavy rains. 2. MEAN CIRCULATION The nlew 700-nlb. circulation for December (fig. 1) represents t i decreme of the mid-latitude westerlies over the Western Hemisphere from the previous month. The average wind speed I L t these latitudes was S.9 m./sec. compa,red to 9.S m./sec. in November. This decrease was first manifested in :I slow-down of the progression described by Dickson [2] in his discussion of the November circulation, nnd then after the middle of December retro- gression occurred. Strong blocking ridges became en- trenched over both the Atlttntic and Pacific Oceans (figs. I tmd 2). Blocking was also present during the month over centrd Asia but was not nearly as pronounced as over the two ocems. The Pacific block had been present during November but became much more intense in December. Both the negtttive 700-1nb. height anomaly to the south and the positive anomaly over the Aleutians increased considerably in magnitude. The Atlantic block was not present early in the month while the progression mentioned earlier continued; however, soon after the middle of December blocking became quite evident in the eastern Atlantic and moved steadily westward as i t intensified during the lnst h l f of the month. The short w2tvelengtlls of the Western Hemisphere circulation during December we typical of blocking patterns. Over North America the main trough was in the central part of the continent, but :L second trough was located just off the west coast . Figure 3 illustrtites how markedly the westerlies split around the two ocemic blocks. Over North America in between tbe strong blocks, where upper-level westerlies are norndly split in December, the separation of the two branches was less thurl usud. The flow over nearly all of North America w~ts quite zonal with much less amplitude than I I O ~J ~, which was in sharp contrast with the flow over the tLdjacent ocems. 3. TEMPERATURE Frequent incursions of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to the east of the main trough (fig. 1) resulted in above normal temperature in most of the eastern United States (fig. 4). At the same time, stronger than normnl westerlies brought mild Pacific air into the West from Oregon and Idtho southwttrd which resulted in above or near normal temperature for California, the high Plateau, t'he southern Rockies, und much of Texas. The extremely low average temperature in the Northern Plains reflected the flux of cold continental air into the ttreas east of the meat1 ridge dong the Rocky Mountains. Many areas in hfontalla, including Billings, Great Fdls, and Havre, reported the coldest December of record. The source region for this continental air, Alaska and the Yukon Territory, wns unusually cold during the month. Temperatures a t Fairbanks, Alaska averaged 19' F. below normal (fig. 4) nnd a t Dawson in the Yukon 24' %. below normal [3]. The very strong and persistent upper-level ridge over Bering Strait contributed to the cold ofAlasktx and the Yukon by favoring surface anticyclones which in turn favored clear skies stud strong radiational cooling during the long nights. 4. PRECIPITATION FLOODS IN THE NORTHWEST The extremely hetLvy minfall over much of the Fur West during December was associated with the strong 190 MONTHLYWEATHERREVIEW Vol. 93, No. 3 FIGURE 2.--Mcan 700-mb. height departures from normal for December 1964, at intervnls of 50 f t . with centers labeled in tens of feet and the zero isopleth heavy. A strong blocking pattern prevailed over the Atlantic and Pacific. FIGURE I .--Mean 700-mb. contours (tens of ft.) drawn at intervals of 100 f t . for December 1964. southwesterly flow and trough off the coast (figs. 1 and 2). More than 300 percent of normal precipitation (fig. 5) fell over large areas that usually have considerable amounts of precipitation during December. Most of this very heavy rain fell during a &day period and cnused disastrous floods. The large-scale synoptic situation over the eastern Pacific that brought the flood conditions was analogous to the regime that led to the record-breaking floods of De- cember 1955 [4] in northern California and Oregon and to several earlier major flood situations in the sa,me region. Most of these past flood situations in northern Cali- fornia and nearby States have been characterized by a strong southwesterly flow aloft that brings very warm and moist air from the vicinity of Hawaii up over the western mountains. Reference to figure 6 will show that during the period of heaviest rain this December (19-23) the main jet flow approached from the southwest just north of Hawaii in a similar manner. The only difference was one of intensity. Not only was the jet stream very strong when averaged for the 5-dsy period, but also the wind March 1965 lullan I I. W. Posey 191 FIGURE 3."hlcnn isotachs at 700 mb. (ill. m./sec.) for December 1964. Solid :moms indicate the observed itxcs of maximum winds and cl:Lshcd lines intlic:ttc the normnl LLXCS. FIGURE 4.-llep~trturc of the nvcr:Lgc surface temperature from normal (" F.) for December 1964 (from [l]). Record-breaking low tcmpcrutures mere observed in the Northern Plains. speeds were very persistent from day to day. At 40' N ., 140' mi. the 300-mb. wind speed averaged 134 kt. during the 5 days, and at no time was the speed less than 110 k t . u t this point according to the objective wind analysis of the National Meteorological Center. Hetivy rains that occur in association with strong jet maximi are well documented [5]. Added to the dynamic lifting associated with the jet stream mas the much stronger lift supplied by the winds approaching the western mountains in an almost right-angle trajectory. The isohyets in figure 6 give the broad outline of the rain- fall during the flood period. Some of the heavier amounts are shown in table 1. The crest of the floods was greatly increased by the rapid melting of snow in the mountains. At Government Camp, Oreg., snow that was 45 in. deep ;?S'$& ~.. PERCENIAGE OF NORMAL PREClPlTAIlON FIGURE Fj.-Percentage of normal prccipihtion for December 1964 (from [I]). Very heavy prccipilation fell over much of thc West. FIGUHE 6.-Mean isotachs (kt., thin solid lincs) over the c:tstcrn Pacific and isohyets (in., tl:ishccl lincs) of precipitation in the Northwest for December 19-23, 1964. Ifenvy solid arrows are jet axes. on the morning of the 21st T V ~S only 6 in. deep two days later. PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE Southwesterly flow to the eftst of the mean trough through central United Sttites resulted in above n o r n d precipitation in most sections enst of the Mississippi River (fig. 5), thus further alleviating the drought condi- tions of the previous summer nnd fall, following the im- provement that occurred in November [2]. I n Ohio, Dayton reported above normal precipitation for the first time in S months and Cleveland also recorded above normal precipitation following the driest November since 1924. Southern New Engltmd, southeastern New York, and pnrts of Pennsylvania received precipitation amounts in excess of 4 in. However, other areas in the Northeast, TABLE 1.-Precipitation amounts for selected stations in northern California for December 19-24, 1964 Station Precipitation Station Precipitation (in.) (in.) " __~- - Brush Creek _._............ Blue Canyon ____._........ Shasta Dam _____.._....... l.Ioopa ___................__ 22.5 18.4 Camptonvik .....___...... 18.5 Whispering Pines ........_. '24.4 Carlmville __.....__._..___ 20.3 12. 0 21.1 Willits Howard Forest-.-.. 1'2.9 1)eer Creek _...._________. 21.9 192 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vol. 93, No. 3 FIGURE 7.-(A) iOO-mb. contours (solid) and height departure from normal (dotted) both in tens of feet, for Ilecember 1-5, 1064. (B) Total precipitation (in.). (C) Surface temperature dcparture from normal (" F.). (B) and (C) for week ending Deccmbcr 6, 1964 (from [I]). while receiving some drought relief, still did not have normal rainfall for the month, and the long-time moisture deficiency became greater. Burlington, Vt. recorded 1.63 in. which WRS 0.50 in. below normal, and Williamsport, Pa. measured 2.66 in. (0.3s in. below normal). For Williamsport the deficiency for 1964 was 7.24 in. and nearly 17 in. for the past two years. The shortage in annual moisture remained large in widespread areas of central and eastern United States. FIGCRE 8.-(A) 700-mb. contours (solid) and height tlepnrturcs from normal (dotted), both in tens of feet, for December S-12, 1964. (B) Total precipitation (i n .). (C) Surface temperature departure from normal (" F.). (B) and (C) for week ending Dcccmbcr 13, 1964 (from [l]). hlIadison, Wis., with only 0.34 in. during December, reported below nornlal precipitation during S months of 1964. Rochester, N.Y., ended the driest year since 18i7 with a monthly deficiency of 0.34 in. E l Paso, Tex., reported 0.52 in. for December, which was slightly above normal, but with seven unusually dry months during the year El Paso had only 5.35 in. during all of 1964. Clley- enne, Wyo. reported only 40 percent of normtd precipita- tion during the year, wllich was the driest since 1900. March 1965 Julian W. Posey 193 FIGURE 9.-(A) 700-mb. contours (solid) a d height departures from normnl (clotted), both in tens of feet, for I~ecembcr 15-19, 1964. (B) Total precipitation (in.). (C) Surface temperature departure from normal (" F.). (B) and (C) for week ending December 20, 1064 (from [l]). Fort Myers, Fla., although reporting 32.83 in. for 1964, received the least annual rainfall since records began in 1891. 5. WEEKLY VARIATIONS A mean upper-level trough (fig. 7A) advancing slowly through the eastern part of the country during the first week of December caused heavy rn>itl in the lower Missis- sippi Valley and excessive rain in southern G.eorgia and northern Florida (fig. 7B). The central ,p u t of the Nation ancl the Southwest which were dominated by the FIGUI~E 10.-(A) 700-mb. contours (solid) a 1 1 d height departures from normd (clotted), both in tens of feet, for December 22-26, 1964. (B) Total precipitation (in.). (C) Surf:tcc temperature departure from normal (" F.) (B) ancl (C) for meek ending December 27, 1964 (from [l]). mean ridge had generally light or no precipitntion. Along the northwester~l coast and the northern Rockies westerly winds carrying moist Pacific air'resulted in fairly heavy rain for that section during the week. Most of the Na- tion east of the Rocky h4ountains experienced a very cold week (fig. 7 C ), as the position and large amplitude of the mean ridge allowed cold continental air to penetrate to the Gulf of Mexico. Only a small area east of the Mid- west trough had warni Gulf or Atlantic air present long enough to give above normal temperatures for the week. 194 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vol. 93, No. 3 West of the Rocky Mountains the westerly flow brought mild Pacific air and above normal temperatures. As the progression of November 121 continued into the second week of December, the deep Low in eastern Canada and associated trough were replaced by a strong ridge (fig. SA). However, the southernmost portion of the mew trough over Mexico and Terns did not progress but remained almost stationary. Then ns the next major trough that moved eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies merged with this low-latitude trough very heavy rain sttwted along the Texas coast and spread up the Missis- sippi and Ohio Valleys (fig. SB). Although the ridge over the Rockies was much weaker than normd in the second week it did result in light or no precipitation over the Northern Plains and Rocky Mountains. Westerly winds continued to give appreciable rnin or snow to the North- west. I n response to above normal 700-mb. height and anomdous southerly flow over the East, temperatures in most of the eastern half of the United States were above normtd (fig. SC). The western half of the country had generally below normal temperature associated with below normd 700-mb. heights. Strong amplification of the broad-scale circulation oc- curred in the third week of December over North America and the adjacent oceans (fig. 9A). A very strong mean ridge developed over the eastern Pacific and northwud across Alaska and over the Arctic Basin. Two cent,ers of positive 700-mb. height anomaly were associated with the ridge, one over the Aleutians (910 ft.) and the other over the Arctic (890 ft.). The resulting downstream trough produced a blizzard across the Northern Plains that gnve from 1 to 5 in. of snow from the Rocky Moun- t i n s t o New England. Sleet and freezing rain fell along the southern boundary of the snow belt. This storm reached its greatest intensity just east of the Rocky hllountnins (wind speeds reached 56 1n.p.h. at Rapid City, S. Dak. and 57 m.p.h. at Cheyenne, Wyo.), then weakened as i t moved eastward over the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. Before reaching the blizzard stage this storm moved through the Northwest from the Pacific and gave heavy precipittltion along the west coast (fig. 9B). Because of the distance from the Gulf of Mexico and the zonal character of the flow in southern United States during the passage of this storm, the total precipitation was relatively small over central ancl eastern United States. The heavier areas of precipitation in the Southeast occurred with trailing cold fronts. Following the blizzard a very large and extremely cold air mass spread southward from Alaska, in response to the ridge amplification, and covered all of the United States before the end of the week (fig. 9C). The lowest minimum temperature observed in December during the 31 years of record a t t h e Billings, Mont., Airport was reported this week. High-latitude retrogression during the fourth week caused the ridge connection from the southeastern Pacific to the upper-level High near the Aleutians to be broken. The resulting flus of vorticity ru.ound the large High centered over the western Aleutians in the fourth week of December carved out a deep trough in the central Pacific west of Hawaii (fig. 10A). The very long fetch of warm, moist, southwesterly winds to the east of this trough resulted in the flood-producing rainfall (fig. 10B) discussed in section 4. This current was very deep with almo;t parallel flow from the surfuce t o t h e 300-mb. level (figs. 6 and IOA). Although the heaviest 7-clay period of rain occurred during the week ending on the 27th, the heaviest &day rainfall fell from the 19th to 23d. A redistribution of vorticity downstream following the breaking of the ridge connect,ion in the eastern Pacific led to 21 sharp trough development over the eastern United States. One of the storms which cilused the floods of the Northwest swung southenstward through this trough a s i t deepened and produced the heavy rain shown in the Southeast (fig. IOB). The strong southwesterly current in the eastern Pacific also resulted in rapid and intense warming that spread over most of the West and the South Central States. Temperatures were 15’ to 18’ 17. above normal for the week over large a,reas of the high Plateau and the southern Rockies (fig. lOC). In the meantime, retrogression of the Atlantic block coupled with the sharp trough over the East gave a very strong sontherly anomalous flow (fig. 10h) that warmed the East rapidly also. Temperatures ranged from 6’ to 15’ F. above normal over much of the country east of the Mississippi River, and many daily maximum temperature records were set in the East. The strong ridge over the Aleutitms and Alaska combined with northwesterly flow in west8ern Canada continued the very cold regime in the Northern Plains. Some of this cold air moved across the mountains into the State of Washington which was north of the main storm track, ancl most of Washington had below normal temperatures. Retrogression continued during the last few clays of December with the positive anonmly over the Atlantic centered neur Newfounclland by the end of the month. This brought continued warmth to the East, b u t t h e west coast had begun to cool agnin under the influence of a deep trough near the coast. Heavy precipitation continued in the East and Far West the last few days of December. REFERENCES 1. U.S. Weather Bureau, Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, Nationul Summary, vol. LI, Nos. 40-52, December 7, 14, 21, 25, 1964 and vol. LII, No. 2, January 11, 1965. 2. I t . 13.. Dickson, “The Weather and Circulation of November 1064-Co1~trasting Weather R.cgimes Related to Long Wave Progression,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 93, No. 2, Feb. 3. C:landa Department of Tr:lnsport, Rlcteorological Branch, Canudiun Weather Review, vol. 2, No. 12, Dcc. 1964. 4. J . F. Andrcws, “Thc Wenthor and Circulation of 1)ecembcr 1955,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 83, No. 12, Dee. 1955, 5. 13. T-T. Johnson and S. M. Daniels, “Rninfall in Relation to thc Jct Stream,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. SO, No. 344, Apr. 1954, pp. 212-217. 1965, pp. 123-126. pp. 327-336. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE:1965