AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 238 PM MST MON JAN 8 2007 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TUE) MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW PACK AREAS. CURRENTLY...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND DEPENDS ON SNOW COVER...NO SNOW COVER...AND EXPOSED MOUNTAIN TOP AREAS. WARM AIR APPEARS TO BE BUILDING ALOFT AS WOLF CREEK PASS...MONARCH PASS...AND LA VETA PASS HIGH TERRAIN AWOS SENSORS ARE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HIGH TERRAIN AWOS SENSORS INDICATE WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WEST 25-45KTS GUSTS UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF HEARTY SNOW PACKS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW PACK STRUGGLED TO WARM AGAIN...EXCEPT SPRINGFIELD DID MANAGE TO GET IN THE 30S AND TRINIDAD REACHED MID 40S THANKS TO A LITTLE BIT OF WIND. LOW LYING AREAS WITH SNOW PACK ONLY WERE IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30F LIKE ALAMOSA...LA JUNTA...AND LAMAR WITH LITTLE WIND. TONIGHT...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...SO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE SNOW PACK. SHOULD SEE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY FLOOR CENTER DROP TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER TONIGHT. ALSO...THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NICE INVERSIONS SHOULD SET UP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TUE...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW BACKS TOWARDS THE WEST AND CHINOOK DOWNSLOPE WARMING OCCURS. H7 TEMPERATURES WARM FROM -1C IN THE MORNING TO +3C BY THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW IS NOT PROJECTED TO BE ALL THAT MODERATE OR STRONG...SO LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER DEEP SNOW PACK. CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MUCH COLDER WITH LIGHT WIND...SNOW PACK/COLD GROUND...AND LOW SUN ANGLE. IF THE WIND CAN PICK UP IN LA JUNTA OR LAMAR...TEMPERATURE MIGHT MAKE A RUN FOR THE 30S AS WARMER AIR WILL BE JUST OFF THE DECK. DESPITE THE DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND 40S SINCE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND A LITTLE MORE WIND COULD MIX DOWN THE AIR. METZE .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE AMOUNT OF IMPACT NEXT SYSTEM HAS ON CWFA FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATING THAT CWFA UNDER GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY LOW GRADE TO NON-EXISTENT POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...12Z/8TH ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LOW THEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. 18Z/8TH NAM12 HAS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. 12Z/8TH GFS ALSO HAS CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. LATEST DGEX ALSO SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...COLDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IF SYSTEM TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING WOLF CREEK PASS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED SEVERAL INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER THE MESSAGE OF COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS STILL THE WAY TO GO. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 426 AM MST MON JAN 8 2007 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF NW CO AT 09Z AND EXTENDING INTO THE CNTRL CO MTNS. APPEARS CORRELATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST NW FLOW PORTRAYED IN THE RUC MODEL... WHICH SHOWS LIFT AND CLOUDS DECREASING BETWEEN 15-18Z THIS MORNING OVER THE PICEANCE BASIN/CRAIG/RIFLE AREAS AS IT PASSES. STRONG NW FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH INTO TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NRN CO MTNS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...TRENDING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER SE UT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE RANGES TODAY WITH 10,000 FT WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ANTICIPATED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TUE-TUE NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE PAC NW. A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BEST WARM-UP WILL BE NOTED ON THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES AS THE WARMING ALOFT STRENGTHENS VALLEY INVERSIONS AND RETARDS MIXING. KEPT MAX TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG IN THE UINTA BASIN TUE NIGHT...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING IMPROVED CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP COLD POLAR VORTEX WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE H5 LOW CENTER. THIS DIFFERENCES AT THE H5 LEVEL IS ALSO REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE PROGS...THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE LOW ALMOST CENTERED OVER GRAND JUNCTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD SERN NEW MEXICO. ALMOST HAVE TO AGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AS THE POLAR VORTEX WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO VACATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. (THE KEY PLAYER MAY ACTUALLY BE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING OVER MEXICO TOWARD THE SERN CONUS. WHILE THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY DETERMINE HOW SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE.) BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL AND THE GFS SHOWS THIS OCCURRING OVER THE ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY. ONCE THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND EAST...IT WILL DO SO SLOWLY WITH HEAVY SNOW CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS...BUT POSSIBLY INTO THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO. SNOW TAPERS OFF ON SATURDAY IN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT SEEPS INTO THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE CHANCE OF SNOW DOES NOT END AS THEIR IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS). WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY TO ADD DETAIL...THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS 72 HOURS AWAY AND WILL INCREASE AWARENESS AND USE STRONG WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .CO...SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WINTER STORM OUTLOOK. .UT...SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WINTER STORM OUTLOOK. $$ JAD/PF co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 430 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST AT THIS TIME WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS FEATURE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE WE SEE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVE WEAKENED AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BECOME HARD TO FIND ALONG THE LINE. GENERALLY EXPECTING JUST A FEW MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM... (TODAY-WEDNESDAY) AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT TO OUR EAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES COMING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAYS IN THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. BIG CHANGE WILL BE FELT TONIGHT FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED LATELY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S REGIONWIDE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO SET UP. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOL. EXPECTING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND THE POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. THINK MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ENOUGH IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TO KEEP WINDS OVER LAND FAIRLY LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY-MONDAY) FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY. DID ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO OUR ALABAMA ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THIS TIME WOULD NOT BEGIN TO REALLY INCREASE UNTIL THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE RAIN...LOW CLOUD COVER...AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF SHORT TERM LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION...THE RUC...AND GFS MOS TO DO THIS. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS (AND SOME WIND GUSTS FROM 20-30 KT) WILL OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE GFS MOS FORECASTS SOME RATHER DENSE FOG FOR DHN THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON PASS THROUGH AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE. WE EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS MUCH DRIER AIR RUSHES INTO OUR AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ABATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME QUITE LIGHT BY THIS EVENING. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS AND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEARSHORE CLOSELY AND MAKE SURE CONDITIONS DO NOT BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PUSHES EAST AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING THIS TIME BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...WITH NEAR CAUTION LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY TO PRODUCE LOW RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 66 36 61 30 59 / 50 05 00 00 00 PANAMA CITY 64 40 61 36 61 / 20 00 00 00 00 DOTHAN 63 36 58 30 58 / 20 00 00 00 00 ALBANY 63 34 58 31 58 / 30 00 00 00 00 VALDOSTA 66 36 60 32 58 / 60 05 00 00 00 CROSS CITY 70 37 63 32 62 / 60 10 00 00 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES. GMZ750/755...NONE. GMZ770/775...SCA UNTIL 5 PM EST (4 PM CST) THIS AFTERNOON. && $$ AVIATION/FIREWX...FOURNIER REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1044 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .DISCUSSION... LONG WAVE TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL BTWN THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE THAT MOVED UP THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIP TO AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE STL METRO...AND NOT WILLING TO PULL THE LIKELY POPS TO THE SE. WILL LEAVE POPS AND WEATHER ALONE FOR NOW...BUT HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TEMPS TO DROP THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND PEORIA. NOT ISSUING A NEW ZONE PACKAGE AS WORDING IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM CONCERN WILL BE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND HOW FAR NORTHWEST IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN. AFTER THAT...STILL WATCHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...NEXT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...COMPLICATED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. ONE WAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE A SECOND IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY. 06Z OBS SHOW LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS E TEXAS/SW ARKANSAS. 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE QPF FIELD QUITE WELL...HOWEVER BASED ON 06Z VERIFICATION...THINK NAM-WRF MAY BE A BIT BETTER THAN EITHER THE RUC OR GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU FOLLOW...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT E/NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING THE KILX CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INITIALLY...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE NORTHWESTWARD SPREAD OF ANY PRECIP. BASED ON NAM-WRF QPF FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NW AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH POPS INCREASING FURTHER SE. BEST BET FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY...TAKING ANY SHOWERS INTO INDIANA. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES APPROACHES BY THIS EVENING...HELPING PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...AS CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST AND STRONG UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER WEATHER IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z 7 JAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND SHOW EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE LATEST RUN DIGS THE UPPER WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BOTTOM LINE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER VORT MAX...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE S/SE CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING OUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER IF GFS VERIFIES...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HJS/BARNES il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 120 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .DISCUSSION... IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM CONCERN WILL BE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AND HOW FAR NORTHWEST IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN. AFTER THAT...STILL WATCHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...NEXT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...COMPLICATED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. ONE WAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE A SECOND IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY. 06Z OBS SHOW LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS E TEXAS/SW ARKANSAS. 00Z MODELS HANDLE THE QPF FIELD QUITE WELL...HOWEVER BASED ON 06Z VERIFICATION...THINK NAM-WRF MAY BE A BIT BETTER THAN EITHER THE RUC OR GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU FOLLOW...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT E/NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING THE KILX CWA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA INITIALLY...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE NORTHWESTWARD SPREAD OF ANY PRECIP. BASED ON NAM-WRF QPF FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NW AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH POPS INCREASING FURTHER SE. BEST BET FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...SO WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY...TAKING ANY SHOWERS INTO INDIANA. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES APPROACHES BY THIS EVENING...HELPING PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...AS CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST AND STRONG UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES BEFORE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER WEATHER IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z 7 JAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND SHOW EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE LATEST RUN DIGS THE UPPER WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BOTTOM LINE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER VORT MAX...BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...EXCEPT MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE S/SE CWA. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING OUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER IF GFS VERIFIES...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BARNES il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 553 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 071200Z TAFS/ LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO KY THIS AFTN. RAIN WITH VFR CONDS ALREADY IN SRN IL NEAR 11Z. THUS HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THIS SET OF TAFS. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...GRADUALLY LOWERING THE CONDS TO IFR BY 20Z. LATEST RUC CIG FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS THINKING. IFR CONDS MAY ARRIVE SOONER IF FASTER TREND CONTINUES. RAIN MAY TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER TROF. HAVE DECIDED TO JUST CONTINUE WITH A VCSH TO INDICATE PRECIP POTENTIAL AFT 06Z. IF PRECIP CONTINUES...COULD BE RA/SN MIX AFT 06Z AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. IMPROVED CONDS TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TOO AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON RAIN EVENT TODAY AND PRECIP TONIGHT. AT 06Z FORECAST AREA /FA/ WAS UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN OH. LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN LOWER MS VALLEY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL USE A BLEND. AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS ITS JOURNEY TO KY TODAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL. UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE IN THE AREA...ADDING TO THE LIFT. THUS FEEL THAT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...SO WILL TIER POPS FROM LIKELY NW TO CATEGORICAL SE. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AND LOOK GOOD MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN. TONIGHT THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA. QVECTORS INDICATE GOOD FORCING WITH TROF PASSAGE TONIGHT. ALSO...RELATIVELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THUS FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR BULK OF FA TO PAST MIDNIGHT. AFTER TROF PASSES...FORCING WEAKENS RAPIDLY...SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS BY LATE TONIGHT. WARM LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN TIL 06Z OR SO...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. BULK OF PRECIP IS OVER BEFORE CHANGEOVER AND GROUND IS WARM...SO WILL PUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRIDS. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE FA LATE. MAV/MET NUMBERS REFLECT THIS AND THUS LOOK OK FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FCST FOCUS ON CLIPPER SYSTEM MON NIGHT...THEN ON WHAT PROMISES TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIG INITIALIZATION ERRORS NOTED ON THE 00Z RUN. I WILL USE A BLEND OF ETA/GFS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TIMING THROUGH TUES. MON...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER AROUND 12Z MON...I FEEL THAT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. MOCLDY SKIES MAY PERSIST MON AND THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S AS INDICATED BY MET MOS. FWC MOS APPEARS MUCH TOO COOL. FOR NOW HIGHS WILL REFLECT A BLEND OF MAV/MET. MON NIGHT-TUES...ETA/GFS REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND APPROXIMATE TRACK OF A DISTURBANCE. ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW CHANNELED 500MB VORT MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AND HIGH RH IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER -12C TO -16C BACKS THIS UP. HOWEVER, MOS POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND UPPER MOTION IS FCST TO BE WEAK. GIVEN RECENT POOR MODEL PRECIP FCST SKILL, I`M WARY OF THIS SINCE THE DISTURBANCE WAS STILL OFF THE BC COAST AT 00Z. 12Z RUN SHOULD INGEST UA AND MAY PROVE MORE INSIGHTFUL. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO THE SREF ENSEMBLE SNOW CHCS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS WITH AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS. WEDS AND BEYOND...UNFORTUNATELY LOOK FOR A VERY WET PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURS NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HTS ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT RAIN MAY LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ AVIATION...CS SHORT TERM...CS LONG TERM...CO in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 420 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .DISCUSSION... A FEW WINDY DAYS PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AT 09Z SURFACE OBS AND PROFILERS INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWESTERN KS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATA CU WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TRACKING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AROUND 15Z. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS NEW AIRMASS IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN THE ONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THE FRONT WILL PRESENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 06Z RUC INDICATES A CORE OF 45-50 KT H850 WINDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER BY THE TIME BETTER MIXING CAN OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...H850 WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO 35-40 KTS. WITH DECENT CLOUD COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT FEEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS COULD PROVE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. WILL MENTION STRONGER GUSTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT DO NOT FEEL AN ADVISORY IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD NOT CLIMB ABOVE 30 MPH. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS IN CASE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND CORE REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT BETTER MIXING WILL SOMEWHAT COMPENSATE FOR THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S READINGS. RAISED CLOUD COVERAGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND STRATA CU PROVIDING MORE ROBUST CLOUD COVERAGE THAN ADVERTISED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY THROUGH THE PLAINS...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG CORE OF 50 TO 55 KT H850 WIND CORE TO BRING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. AFTER SUNSET MIXING WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO NEAR 20 MPH. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY`S HIGHS AS STRONGER WINDS WILL PROMOTE BETTER MIXING BEFORE THE COOLEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS A CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO A COUPLE OF GUSTY BOUTS OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH DIGGING THE BASE SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE EAST WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC AIR TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS POINT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY IS THAT THE MAIN ENERGY PUSHING THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...TO THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS UNCERTAIN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING ANOTHER WINDY DAY TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE DIFFICULT AS THEY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME NORTH CENTRAL KS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE EAST CENTRAL KS IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS HANDLED AND SAMPLED BETTER IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. EXTENDED...GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STALLING THE H850 PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD SET UP A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DETAILS OF THE DEPTH AND PUSH OF THE COLD AIR ARE VERY IMPORTANT AS H850 DEWPOINTS OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES C CAN BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OF -15 DEG C AND LOWER ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA...WRAPPING 6 TO 10 DEGREE H850 MOISTURE OVER SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WOULD PRESENT AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT TOUCHED THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND AS MINOR CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC AIR CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OUTCOME OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FALL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DC ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 945 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .OVERNIGHT UPDATE... SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AT 02Z WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED... REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE WITH 1/8 MILE REPORTED AT BLUEGRASS AIRPORT. FURTHER WEST LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS VISIBILITIES OVER THE WEST HAVE INCREASED AND WE EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE OVER THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LONGER WITH SOME RAIN STILL OCCURING OVER EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALREADY SENT FORECAST UPDATE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FOG OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SERN CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MESONET AND ASOS SITES RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE SRN CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF I-65. CURRENT VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL BREAK IN THE STRATUS FROM SDF TO BWG. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IFR-LIFR CEILINGS ARE LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 09Z SREF IS AT LEAST THREE HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE POPS...AND THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO SLOW. SO FEEL CONFIDENT ENDING CAT POPS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER MORE PRECIP POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW (SHOWN FROM LOW STRATUS/WESTERLY WINDS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN CWA) AIDED BY UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MN DOWN TO NW MO. SOME UPSTREAM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE ARE BEING REPORTED...AND CAN SEE THE LIGHT PRECIP FROM PAH/VWX RADARS. THOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TONIGHT`S GRID WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WEST WHERE I WILL HAVE LOW LIKELY POPS...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WORDING. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...SO HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN GRIDS AS WELL. ALL SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO OUR NE BY 12Z MONDAY...SO WILL END POPS OVERNIGHT BY SUNRISE. SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST FLURRIES. SO WILL KEEP THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WET GROUNDS AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP AND MIXY CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN CWA. FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO MENTION LLWS...THOUGH 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE AT 850MB OVERNIGHT. ALSO CEILINGS SHOULD NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EAST. FOR MONDAY...SFC LOW AND TROUGH SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL DRY OUT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. USED RAW GFS/NAM GRIDS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS MOS IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE TEMP REBOUND. HAVE UPPER 30S NE TO LOW 40S SW...WITH EXTREME SWRN CWA PERHAPS REACHING THE MID 40S WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST SUNSHINE TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA. AL .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... PLENTY OF WEATHER GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ITEM TO EXAMINE IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLIPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER WISCONSIN AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER WILL HEAD EAST INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL DRAG ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. SO...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM KEEPS US COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT REALISTIC. GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE ENTIRE REGION BUT IS EXHIBITING AN ODD MOISTURE PATTERN AND IS KNOWN FOR PRINTING OUT TOO MUCH QPF. ALSO...THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY RATHER FAR TO OUR NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. USING A TOP-DOWN APPROACH WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS WE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THEN MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LEAVING. SO...THESE FACTORS WILL SERVE TO DECREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BOTTOM LINE...RIGHT NOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER...HALF AN INCH FROM LOUISVILLE WEST AND NORTH...AND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN THE BLUE GRASS AROUND LEXINGTON...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER HILLTOPS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WHERE SOME UPSLOPING AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN COME IN TO PLAY. SO...NOT A BIG SNOWSTORM BY ANY MEANS. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM SO RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED AS THE LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY MELTS OFF THE WARM PAVEMENT. REALLY...THE BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY SIMPLY BE HOW UNCOMFORTABLE IT WILL FEEL OUTSIDE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DAYTIME WINDCHILLS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE NOSING IN AND CLEARING OUR SKIES IS PRIMARILY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. READINGS SHOULD FALL TO JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY...WHICH IS LOW TO MIDDLE 20S...MAYBE DOWN TO AROUND 20 IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT MANAGE TO GET A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SO THAT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN KEEP US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT BIG WESTERN UPPER TROF WILL DIG IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BUDGE EASTWARD ONLY INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO GREATLY SLOW DOWN THE FRONT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND LIKELY BEYOND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED IN OUR AREA FOR SO LONG SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SPAN OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SOAKED FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR RIVER ISSUES. STAY TUNED. THANKS TO IND...ILN...AND JKL FOR COORD. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 254 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SERN CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MESONET AND ASOS SITES RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE SRN CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF I-65. CURRENT VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL BREAK IN THE STRATUS FROM SDF TO BWG. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IFR-LIFR CEILINGS ARE LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 09Z SREF IS AT LEAST THREE HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE POPS...AND THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO SLOW. SO FEEL CONFIDENT ENDING CAT POPS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER MORE PRECIP POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW (SHOWN FROM LOW STRATUS/WESTERLY WINDS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN CWA) AIDED BY UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MN DOWN TO NW MO. SOME UPSTREAM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE ARE BEING REPORTED...AND CAN SEE THE LIGHT PRECIP FROM PAH/VWX RADARS. THOUGH IT WILL BE LIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TONIGHT`S GRID WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WEST WHERE I WILL HAVE LOW LIKELY POPS...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WORDING. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...SO HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN GRIDS AS WELL. ALL SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL EXIT TO OUR NE BY 12Z MONDAY...SO WILL END POPS OVERNIGHT BY SUNRISE. SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST FLURRIES. SO WILL KEEP THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WET GROUNDS AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP AND MIXY CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN CWA. FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO MENTION LLWS...THOUGH 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE AT 850MB OVERNIGHT. ALSO CEILINGS SHOULD NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WEST AND TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EAST. FOR MONDAY...SFC LOW AND TROUGH SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL DRY OUT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. USED RAW GFS/NAM GRIDS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS MOS IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE TEMP REBOUND. HAVE UPPER 30S NE TO LOW 40S SW...WITH EXTREME SWRN CWA PERHAPS REACHING THE MID 40S WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST SUNSHINE TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA. AL .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... PLENTY OF WEATHER GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ITEM TO EXAMINE IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLIPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED OVER WISCONSIN AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER WILL HEAD EAST INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL DRAG ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. SO...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM KEEPS US COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT REALISTIC. GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE ENTIRE REGION BUT IS EXHIBITING AN ODD MOISTURE PATTERN AND IS KNOWN FOR PRINTING OUT TOO MUCH QPF. ALSO...THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY RATHER FAR TO OUR NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. USING A TOP-DOWN APPROACH WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS WE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LEAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THEN MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LEAVING. SO...THESE FACTORS WILL SERVE TO DECREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BOTTOM LINE...RIGHT NOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER...HALF AN INCH FROM LOUISVILLE WEST AND NORTH...AND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN THE BLUE GRASS AROUND LEXINGTON...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER HILLTOPS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WHERE SOME UPSLOPING AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN COME IN TO PLAY. SO...NOT A BIG SNOWSTORM BY ANY MEANS. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM SO RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED AS THE LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY MELTS OFF THE WARM PAVEMENT. REALLY...THE BIGGER STORY ON TUESDAY MAY SIMPLY BE HOW UNCOMFORTABLE IT WILL FEEL OUTSIDE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE DAYTIME WINDCHILLS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE NOSING IN AND CLEARING OUR SKIES IS PRIMARILY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. READINGS SHOULD FALL TO JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY...WHICH IS LOW TO MIDDLE 20S...MAYBE DOWN TO AROUND 20 IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS THAT MANAGE TO GET A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SO THAT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT OF THE TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL THEN KEEP US DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT BIG WESTERN UPPER TROF WILL DIG IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BUDGE EASTWARD ONLY INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE TO GREATLY SLOW DOWN THE FRONT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND LIKELY BEYOND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY STALLED IN OUR AREA FOR SO LONG SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SPAN OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SOAKED FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR RIVER ISSUES. STAY TUNED. THANKS TO IND...ILN...AND JKL FOR COORD. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A MORE TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN WITH RIDGES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TROUGHING IN-BETWEEN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...THE MAIN FEATURE TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES BOTH WITHIN THE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW. AT 12Z...INL AND CWPL SOUNDINGS REPORTED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C. HOWEVER...UNDER THE LOW...850MB TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO -20C. SINCE LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS ARE AROUND 4C PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS... RESULTING IN PLENTY OF OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OCCURRING ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO BOTH BETTER MOISTURE AND A LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS. IN ADDITION...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AROUND 5000 FT. LATEST RADAR LOOP HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN RETURNS SINCE THIS MORNING...LIKELY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING ORGANIZATION. ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING COMBINED WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN MINIMAL BANDING. IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 993MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NE ONTARIO AND A 1008MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR DULUTH. WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BASICALLY HELD IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ALL DAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN GOING ON WITH DRY AIR SEEN AT INL MOVING IN. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. FINALLY...THE LAST ITEM TO NOTE IS A TROUGH OVER ALASKA...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)... UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE TONIGHT...WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY AS THE ALASKAN TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE NORTHERN MANITOBA UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. BY 12Z TUE...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -16 TO -18C AND THEN TO -18 TO -20C BY 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS THAT ARE PRESENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW BOTH TONIGHT AND ON TUE. FIRST...INVERSION HEIGHTS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH BY THE NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE LOW...AROUND THE PRESENT 5000FT...AND ONLY RISE UP TO 7000 FT ON TUE WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN (GREATEST OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). SECOND...THE AIR IS OVERALL PRETTY DRY...AS NOTED WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS F. GO EVEN FARTHER NW TO UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW ZERO F. THIRD...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CONVERGENCE AREAS...FAVORING MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS WHICH USUALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK AMOUNTS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT STILL GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR WNW TO NW WINDS. FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SINCE THEY STAY ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF BOTH THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW. DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THAT TEMPERATURES IN NW ONTARIO ARE HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING 10 ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED BOTH LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUE...CLOSER TO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE (THE MET IN THIS CASE). LUCKILY WINDS STAY UP DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS. LASTLY...AS THE COLD ADVECTION COMES IN TOMORROW...MODELS SHOW WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN TO NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE AFTER DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. SINCE WINDS HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM REACHING 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR (MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCK OF AGES). BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO LAKESHORE LOCATIONS FOR TUE. .LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON)... TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE E TO UPPER MI. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING LES FROM W TO E. WOULD EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES TUE NIGHT UNDER PURE LES REGIME WITH INVERSION RUNNING AROUND 5KFT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF ALGER/LUCE DUE TO LONGER FETCH AND INDICATIONS OF BETTER CONVERGENCE SETTING UP AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP JUST BLO 0F IN THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD SPOTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WED THRU THU...POTENT SHORTWAVE IS TO TRACK ALONG U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN WED MORNING TO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THU MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION PER HPC DISCUSSION. SRLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WED NIGHT WITH 40-50KT DEVELOPING AT 850MB. PRES FALL MAX OF 8MB/6HR PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED NIGHT WILL ASSIST IN STRENGTHENING SFC WINDS DESPITE IT BEING THE MORE STABLE TIME OF DAY. WINDS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE GUSTY FOR ERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHICH ARE FAVORED IN SRLY FLOW (KISQ/KERY/GRAND MARAIS/MARQUETTE). GALES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON LAKE SUPERIOR... ESPECIALLY E HALF. AS FOR PCPN...IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS WED MORNING THRU THE AFTN...BUT AS USUAL...AN INITIAL DRY AIRMASS WILL NEED TO BE SATURATED FIRST...AND THE STRONGEST PUSH OF ASCENT WILL BE USED TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM POPS BACK WED TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE S WHERE SATURATION HAS THE LEAST CHC TO OCCUR. HAVE THEN TRENDED POPS UP FARTHER N...REACHING HIGH CHC OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SSW FLOW...BUT AIRMASS WARMS FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. NONETHELESS...DID PAINT HIGHER CHC POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. WITH SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW TRACKING JUST N OF FCST AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT DID LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS. LES SHOULD GET GOING AGAIN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN WNW FLOW THU AFTN AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -14C LATE IN THE DAY. FRI THRU MON...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A MORE TYPICAL JANUARY PERIOD AND COULD POTENTIALLY TURN QUITE COLD. OTHER THAN THE COLD...MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. TO PREVENT DEEP FREEZING OF THE GROUND...SNOW COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED IF VERY COLD AIR DOES IN FACT SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON FRI...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POSITIVE TILT TROF FROM SCNTRL CANADA TO THE SW CONUS. WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS TO THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROF IS THE BIG QUESTION. GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWED ENERGY HEADING OUT STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN CANADIAN/UKMET/ECWMF. GFS RESULT WOULD BE A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR NE OR N WIND FAVORED AREAS AS SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM TX TO SE LWR MI. TRACK WOULD KEEP HEAVIEST SYNOPTIC SNOW JUST SE OF FCST AREA...BUT STILL THERE WOULD BE DECENT SNOW. 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF THIS SCENARIO AND NOW HAS A MUCH WEAKER SFC WAVE. 00Z UKMET THRU SAT EVENING KEPT ENERGY HELD BACK OVER THE SW AND ALLOWED HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES...BUT 12Z RUN AT LEAST TAKES SOME ENERGY OUT WITH A SFC WAVE TRACKING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL CANADIAN IS SIMILAR. 00Z ECMWF OFFERED A SHEARED OUT APPROACH TO SHORTWAVE WITH ONLY WEAK SFC DEVELOPMENT ON FRONT. 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. BOTH RUNS TAKE SFC LOW ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO GFS. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT SOME SORT OF SFC LOW TRACKING TO NEAR SE LWR MI...BUT NONE OF THE MEMBERS SHOW SFC LOW AS DEEP AS 00Z OR 06Z GFS. BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO BRING LOW CHC POPS INTO FAR SCNTRL/SE UPPER MI WITH POTENTIAL FOR NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO REACH THIS FAR N. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PLAYER IN UPPER MI WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...LES WILL CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SAT THRU MON. UNLESS THERE IS HELP FROM SYNOPTIC FORCING AT TIMES...LES SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS IN GFS/ECMWF RUNS THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT A SOLID SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING S FROM THE NPOLE WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR S THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL PLUNGE...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THAT 850MB TEMPS COULD DROP TO AROUND -30C. MORE RECENT RUNS DURING THE LAST DAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON A SHARP SOUTHWARD PLUNGE. EVEN IF 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO -20 TO -25C...BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ AJ (SHORT TERM) ROLFSON (LONG TERM) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1128 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 16Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWED TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TROUGH... TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COLD WITH BOTH CWPL AND INL REPORTING -14C 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z. SINCE LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS ARE AROUND 4C PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OCCURRING ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO BOTH BETTER MOISTURE AND A LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS. IN ADDITION...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER...WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AROUND 6000 FT. RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME DECENT RETURNS WITH REFLECTIVITIES OF 20-24 DBZ IN BANDS...SUGGESTING UP TO A HALF INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE INL SOUNDING COMBINED WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN SHORTER AND WEAKER BANDS. IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW... BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 995MB LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NE OF THE LAKE AND A 1008MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR DULUTH. WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BASICALLY HELD IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ALL MORNING. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN GOING ON WITH DRY AIR SEEN AT INL MOVING IN. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AT THE PRESENT TIME. && .UPDATE... UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE COOL 850MB READINGS WILL PERSIST...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT DOES NOT RELAX ANY...SO THE BREEZY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS FAR AS DETAILS REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBS DO SHOW WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN AN AREA FROM THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE EASTWARD TO PARADISE. THEREFORE IN THIS AREA HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS COMING DOWN ABOUT 2000 FT BY 21Z...BUT WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE OCCURRING...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR. FOR THE WESTERN U.P....LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW THE INDICATION OF A BAND COMING OUT OF DULUTH HARBOR INTO THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSIONS...DO NOT THINK THAT THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE MUCH SNOW AS THOSE OUT EAST. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE COLD READINGS ALOFT AND THE COOLER READINGS RIGHT NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS BOUNDED BY RIDGES OVER QUEBEC AND WEST COAST OF CANADA. A PRONOUNCED DPVA IS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE IS OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA ALSO SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH TROUGH STRETCHING TO A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER LOW OVER IS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO AND IS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ONTARIO LOW. SNOW SHOWERS SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN U.P. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF 17C WHICH IS DEVELOPING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LES PRONE AREAS WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. EVENING SOUNDING INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND 850MB. SOUNDING SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-850MB AND DRIER BELOW THIS LAYER. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN FOLLOWED A UKMET/GFS BLEND AS SUGGESTED BY HPC. THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE AREA WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP INTO EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL PRESS INTO THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE -13C 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYNESS AT THE LOW LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST OMEGA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LES SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY SET UP AND CONTINUE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND WESTWARD...AND OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. THE FETCH LENGTH OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SWEEP INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND SWING INTO MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE PROJECTION INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A DEEPER THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 20C. THE LOW INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 850MB SO THERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS. THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE FETCH LENGTH AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND 25 KNOTS OVER WEST DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE AROUND 5F OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DEW POINTS OVER THE DAKOTAS ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A SATURATED LAYER ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN 900MB AND 850MB. LES LIKELY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOKS MARGINAL FOR POTENTIAL LES ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A DECISION FOR AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A BAND OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL DIP TO -23C. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE TO 23C. THE 850MB INVERSION WILL LIFT TO AROUND 800MB. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SATURATED FROM 900MB TO THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 25-30KTS OVER THE BIG LAKE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY. THUS A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS I WILL EXTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING EARLY EAST. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL END SNOWS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW WILL SWEEP FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ AJ (UPDATE) DLG (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 420 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS BOUNDED BY RIDGES OVER QUEBEC AND WEST COAST OF CANADA. A PRONOUNCED DPVA IS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE IS OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA ALSO SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH TROUGH STRETCHING TO A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER LOW OVER IS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO AND IS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ONTARIO LOW. SNOW SHOWERS SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN U.P. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF 17C WHICH IS DEVELOPING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LES PRONE AREAS WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. EVENING SOUNDING INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND 850MB. SOUNDING SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-850MB AND DRIER BELOW THIS LAYER. NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN FOLLOWED A UKMET/GFS BLEND AS SUGGESTED BY HPC. THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE AREA WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP INTO EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL PRESS INTO THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE -13C 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYNESS AT THE LOW LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY SNOWS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST OMEGA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...LES SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY SET UP AND CONTINUE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND WESTWARD...AND OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. THE FETCH LENGTH OVER THE WEST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS WILL LIMIT LES ACCUMULATION OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SWEEP INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND SWING INTO MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE PROJECTION INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A DEEPER THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DEVELOPING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 20C. THE LOW INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 850MB SO THERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS. THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE FETCH LENGTH AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND 25 KNOTS OVER WEST DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE AROUND 5F OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DEW POINTS OVER THE DAKOTAS ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A SATURATED LAYER ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN 900MB AND 850MB. LES LIKELY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOKS MARGINAL FOR POTENTIAL LES ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A DECISION FOR AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. A BAND OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL DIP TO -23C. OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T WILL INCREASE TO 23C. THE 850MB INVERSION WILL LIFT TO AROUND 800MB. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SATURATED FROM 900MB TO THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 25-30KTS OVER THE BIG LAKE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY. THUS A NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS I WILL EXTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING EARLY EAST. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL END SNOWS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW WILL SWEEP FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 356 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...SHRTWVS TO NOTE WERE OVER SE MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING AND A 17Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM BRAINERD...HAS HELPED SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF DULUTHS FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. PER LOWER VISIBILITIES SEEN AT IWD AND CMX. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST AS SEEN ON THE 16Z SAWYER TAMDAR SOUNDING...COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 40S READINGS IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE THESE READINGS AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE....1000MB LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR PICKLE LAKE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR DUBUQUE. 850MB TEMPS FALL NEARLY 5C BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROM THE PRESENT -4C READINGS TO AROUND -9C AS SEEN ON THE BRAINERD SOUNDING. TO THE WEST OF THIS COOLER AIR...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR (NOTED BY THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.19 INCHES ON THE 12Z BIS SOUNDING) WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 995MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ALBERTA. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL CROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS. DPVA AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSLATION EASTWARD OF THE SNOW OVER DULUTHS AREA ACROSS THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS...WHICH HAS HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SNOW SO FAR ALSO PRESENTS THIS IDEA...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED MOST OF IT FOR THE FORECAST. THEREFORE... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE OF 700MB OMEGA OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH RESULTS IN THE MODEL PRODUCING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH SINCE THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS FEATURE. SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC FEATURE...HAVE WENT WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS NEAR 10 TO 1...WHICH RESULTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL. AFTER THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL PASSES...COLDER 850MB TEMPS SEEN UPSTREAM MOVE IN (SHOWN TO COOL TO -10 TO -12C). WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IN OVER THE PLAINS MAY HINDER THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. MODELS...EVEN HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS...REFLECT THIS BY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE STILL KEPT AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODELS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE ARE HINTS OF LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING TONIGHT THAT MAY HELP TO FOCUS AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NEARLY CUT IN HALF FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE DRIER...LOWER INVERSION LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. GIVEN WNW FLOW...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)... GFS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST 00Z TUE WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND THIS RIDGING POKES INTO THE CWA ON WED. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I290K SURFACES 12Z WED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN WONDERING IF POPS SHOULD BE IN FOR WED. WILL PUT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS FOR WED. LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT ALSO ENTERS INTO THE PICTURE FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5C AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -10C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ANYWAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KIWD...KCMX AND KMQT SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3000-4000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE KERY BUFKIT SOUNDING HAS INVERSION HEIGHT 5000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE. ALL SOUNDINGS THOUGH HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR WHICH COULD BE A PROBLEM. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OFF THE GFS DOWN TO -14C TO -16C WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURE OF 3C TO 4C...IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA TO THE WEST AND EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS AND WILL NOT PUT UP ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS IS STILL TROUBLING. WHEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS HAVE HAPPENED IN THE PAST...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LESS AND SNOWFALL RATIONS ALSO TEND TO BE LESS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. THINKING THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 9 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NOW AND THIS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT THROUGH 24 HOURS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR WHICH THEY SEEMED REASONABLE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z THU. TROUGHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST 00Z FRI INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CWA ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR 00Z SAT AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STAY TO THE WEST THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT EXTENDED FORECAST TO DEAL WITH WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD AND COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS OCCURS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJENS AND ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND EXTENDED IS NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ (SHORT TERM) MICHELS (LONG TERM) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 655 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007 .DISCUSSION... LATEST LOOK AT RUC AND 18Z RUNS...ALONG WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM IS SHOWING THAT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT BEST LOOKING TO BE ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF WINDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT AS LOW LEVELS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SCALE BACK THE START AND END TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO FOCUS IT ON THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN...AND ALSO TAKE OUT NORTHEAST KANSAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE BETTER GRADIENT WILL BE OVER MISSOURI. EXPECT NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALSO TO GET PRETTY GUSTY...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS AS THAT DEVELOPS. ALSO WATCHING A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING SOUTHEAST ON OMAHA RADAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW SO AT THIS POINT...NOT PLANNING ON ADDING AS ANY RAIN TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SINCE WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED AND LIGHT. PLAN ON HANDLING WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS IF SPRINKLES DO POP UP. A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED WITH MY NORTHEAST AREAS...WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW BY THAT TIME MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LEVELS...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SUCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...SO WILL CALL IT FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /351 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007/ FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING THE END OF THE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NOT QUITE UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12Z AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEAR 1039MB SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PLAINS ON THE HEALS OF THE EXITING NE US/SE CANADA SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR 45KT CORE OF H925 TO AFFECT THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT. WHILE A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TONIGHT...DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS TO ALLOW SOME OF THE 45KT CORE TO DESCEND. WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FOUND IT PRUDENT TO LET IT GO FOR CONTINUITY SAKE. NONETHELESS...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS ELONGATED VORTICITY CORE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH BRIEFLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...APPEARS MORE LIKELY AREA FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE VORT MAXIMA. THEREFORE...LEFT ONLY SILENT POPS IN FOR NOW. OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...ALBEIT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTS FALLS SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS GFS PROGS 60KT LLJ TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. DEROCHE GFS SOLUTION HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ECMWF BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH A BLEND WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. COLD AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG INDICATION OF A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO MACON MISSOURI. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE ACTUAL SCENARIO AND WHERE THE FREEZING LINE WILL SET UP. THINK CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SEE RAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENT. WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THERE WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DO THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MOVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NRR /ISSUED 420 AM CST MON JAN 8 2007/ PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMING ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO CHANNELED VORTICITY PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN RIBBON OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. SEVERAL FAST MOVING IMPULSES WILL ZIP THROUGH THE AREA WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAKING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. SOME CONCERN WE MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IMPEDING THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM FROM THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION NOT DISSIPATING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT PRUDENT TO DROP AS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE PROSPECTS INCREASE FOR THE WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG DUE TO STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISE CENTER SURGING THROUGH IA AND INTO MO. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MODELS STILL PROG A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS COUPLED WITH AN INTRUSION OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FORMS THE RECIPE FOR WINTERY WEATHER AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND SPREAD EASTWARD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IN TURN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADVECT QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MO. INITIALLY WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST MO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH BELOW FREEZING AIR EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY BEFORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT MOVES IN SOMETIME ON SATURDAY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. EXPECT TO SEE A WIDE VARIETY OF WINTRY WEATHER TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRIMARY QUESTIONS REMAIN TIMING OF ONSET OF WINTRY WEATHER. LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINTER WEATHER SO STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WIND ADVISORY 9 PM UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001>005-011-012. KS...NONE. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1210 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .UPDATE...EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO THE REST OF THE CWFA. STILL BORDERLINE OR LOW END BUT ESSENTIALLY LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM CENTRAL CWFA WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN AT ADVISORY...AND THE EAST. RUC SUGGESTS HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL EAST OF 281 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE WEST SEEING FALLING PRESSURES AND STRUGGLING TO MIX WITH SNOW COVER OR SNOW COVER NEARBY. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALSO SETTLING IN FROM THE WEST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007/ DISCUSSION...MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WINDS. EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN RESIDE IN THE SNOWPACK OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS OF CLOSE TO 30 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 00Z NAM/GFS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT TODAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BY 15Z THIS MORNING...AND ONLY GET STEEPER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. H85 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...HOWEVER THE 03Z RUC SUGGESTS EVEN STRONGER WINDS OF NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MUCH DEBATE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH IT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO LIMIT MIXING. MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE ONGOING POWER RESTORATION EFFORTS AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GIVE THE HEIGHTENED SENSE OF AWARENESS THAT COMES WITH AN ADVISORY. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE THAT AREA DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH ICE/DAMAGE AND WINDS LOOK EVEN MORE MARGINAL IN THAT AREA WITH H85 WINDS WEAKENING A BIT BY THE TIME THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH THAT LOCATION. MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WINDY DAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD HELP THE MIXING...AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY WE HAVE GOT A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THINK THAT IS STILL APPROPRIATE. AT THE MINIMUM THIS SHOULD BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS IF THE MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT (285K) IS STILL BEING SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE GOT THIS COVERED...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007- 017>019. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007. && $$ ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 254 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .DISCUSSION...MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WINDS. EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN RESIDE IN THE SNOWPACK OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS OF CLOSE TO 30 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 00Z NAM/GFS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT TODAY. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BY 15Z THIS MORNING...AND ONLY GET STEEPER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. H85 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...HOWEVER THE 03Z RUC SUGGESTS EVEN STRONGER WINDS OF NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MUCH DEBATE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EVEN THOUGH IT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO LIMIT MIXING. MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE ONGOING POWER RESTORATION EFFORTS AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GIVE THE HEIGHTENED SENSE OF AWARENESS THAT COMES WITH AN ADVISORY. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE THAT AREA DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH ICE/DAMAGE AND WINDS LOOK EVEN MORE MARGINAL IN THAT AREA WITH H85 WINDS WEAKENING A BIT BY THE TIME THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH THAT LOCATION. MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WINDY DAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD HELP THE MIXING...AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY WE HAVE GOT A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THINK THAT IS STILL APPROPRIATE. AT THE MINIMUM THIS SHOULD BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS IF THE MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT (285K) IS STILL BEING SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE GOT THIS COVERED...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085. KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-006-017-018. && $$ KING ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 926 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ALTHOUGH PRIMARY H5 LOW CENTER HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION PER 02Z IR IMAGERY...TRAILING VORT FILAMENT EXTENDING SWWD BACK INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY OF NY IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN SCT VLY -SHRA AND ADIRONDACK -SHSN AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO...WITH STRONG PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW /35-45KTS PER LATEST KTYX VAD WIND PROFILE/ LAKE ONTARIO ENHANCED SNOW BANDS HAVE BEEN IMPINGING ON SWRN ESSEX COUNTY NY. HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS IN WRN ESSEX COUNTY. AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IS POSSIBLE...BUT LATEST RUC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 20DEGS OF VEERING IN 800-600MB LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...ENOUGH TO SHIFT LAKE ENHANCED BAND SOUTH OF OUR PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS WELL AS H5 VORT AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VLY TO REACH THE S-CENTRAL GREEN MTNS...AND THIS IS ALREADY WELL-HANDLED IN THE FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS TO DIG ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTN AS PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE RACES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG S/W ENERGY ACRS NY ALONG WITH SFC COLD FRNT CONTS TO MOVE ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...WITH SOME DRYING/SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND SYSTEM ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM. STILL PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN ULVL TROF AXIS AND COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK SFC TROFS AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL KEEP CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACRS MTN ZNS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 990MB LOW PRES NORTH OF MANIWAKI ATTM WITH GREATEST 3HR PRES FALLS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA...WHILE GREATEST 3HR PRES RISES ARE OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. BASED ON WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND TEXTURE TO CLOUDS PER LATEST VIS SAT LOOP...SFC COLD FRNT NOW ENTERING EASTERN VT. SOME BREAKS NOTED BEHIND FRNT WITH SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 ATTM ACRS WESTERN NY/SLV AND SOME RW/SW. THIS WL CONT TO OVERSPREAD CPV AND EASTERN VT THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS ACRS NE CONUS AS SFC COLD FRNT RACES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z TONIGHT. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT AND MEAN LLVL FLW BECMGS FAVORABLE ACRS SOUTHERN SLV/WESTERN DACKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF FA BY MIDNIGHT. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...LEFTOVER MOISTURE...STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLW WL PRODUCE SOME MTN SW...WL MENTION CHC/LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS BUT BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW BEST LLVL WIND FIELDS QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CANADA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES OF BUFKIT ARE MUCH WEAKER AND SUGGEST ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WL BE TOUGH TO REACH...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THEREFORE WL REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC OBS SHOW GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACRS NORTHERN DACKS/SLV...BUT ONCE AGAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOT BEING MEET...THEREFORE WL ALSO CANCEL ADVISORY.. HOWEVER...PLB BUFKIT SOUNDING STILL SHOWS MIXED BL WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KTS THRU 03Z THIS EVENING. WHICH WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TUESDAY-THURS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS OUR CWA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WEDS WHEN SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -14 TO -16C BY 18Z WEDS ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS SUGGEST TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO REACH L/M20S MOST LOCATIONS ACRS NNY TO L/M30S SOUTHERN VT ZNS. WEDS NIGHT WL BE COLD WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACRS OUR CWA AND LIGHT WINDS/CLRING SKIES. WL CUT SEVERAL DEGREES OFF GUIDANCE...NEAR 0F FOR SLK/NEK TO AROUND 10 BTV/PLB. THURS...SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPING AS PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN CONTS. WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ON FRIDAY...A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF SNOW COVER. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON FRIDAY...SO PLAN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. GFS MODEL LOOKS OVERDONE IN HINTING AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL LOCATION STILL REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY...BUT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS SLOWLY SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ..AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY... AS MAX SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AGAIN...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MOS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATER MONDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z ON TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS FROM THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BANACOS ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 114 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... LGT TO MOD RAIN WILL CONT UNTIL ABOUT 12Z TO 15Z. WILL SEE CONT CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR CAT...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS PSBL AT TIMES AT BGM...RME...AND ITH. DRIER AND COLD AIR MVES IN BEHIND A COLD FNT AFT 15Z. THIS WILL MIX OUT ANY LEFTOVER LOW LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRV VSBYS. CIGS SHD RISE WELL INTO THE VFR CAT ALL STATIONS. XPCT GNRL VFR CONDS TO REMAIN THRU THE END OF THE PD...WITH WLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN HERE ATOP MOUNT ETTRICK /KBGM/...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATING OTHER POCKETS OF MIXED SLEET AND SNOW IN THE REGION. THE DOMINANT PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT THE MIX IS NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE INITIAL LLVL DRY LAYER AND CAPABILITY OF ATMOSPHERE TO APPROACH A FREEZING WET-BULB TEMP GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AT ONSET. HAVE UPDATED FOR A CHC FOR SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT... THEN WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL BE RAIN ALTHOUGH HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NRN ONEIDA...AND ALSO THE WRN CATS MAY BE A HOLD OUT INTO THE WEE HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH HVY QPF IN EXCESS OF AN INCH FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN AND NRN BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA. FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE. ALL RIVER POINT FCSTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING WITH NO FLOODING EXPECTED FROM THE FCST QPF. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OUR NOTORIOUSLY QUICK HEADWATER POINTS FOR ANY FAST RISES AND TRY TO STAY AHEAD OF THEM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SYSTEM PULLING OUT ON MONDAY. HINTS OF A BIG LES EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUES NITE-WEDS...SO STAY TUNED. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS MAINLY WEST. TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS CAN BE TWEAKED LATER. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD, WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ057-062. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037. PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047- 048-072. && $$ AVIATION...DGM ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 933 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN HERE ATOP MOUNT ETTRICK /KBGM/...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATING OTHER POCKETS OF MIXED SLEET AND SNOW IN THE REGION. THE DOMINANT PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT THE MIX IS NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE INITIAL LLVL DRY LAYER AND CAPABILITY OF ATMOSPHERE TO APPROACH A FREEZING WET-BULB TEMP GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP AT ONSET. HAVE UPDATED FOR A CHC FOR SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT... THEN WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL BE RAIN ALTHOUGH HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NRN ONEIDA...AND ALSO THE WRN CATS MAY BE A HOLD OUT INTO THE WEE HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH HVY QPF IN EXCESS OF AN INCH FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN AND NRN BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA. FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE. ALL RIVER POINT FCSTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING WITH NO FLOODING EXPECTED FROM THE FCST QPF. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OUR NOTORIOUSLY QUICK HEADWATER POINTS FOR ANY FAST RISES AND TRY TO STAY AHEAD OF THEM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SYSTEM PULLING OUT ON MONDAY. HINTS OF A BIG LES EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUES NITE-WEDS...SO STAY TUNED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ AVIATION /080000Z-090000Z/... EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS AS RAIN BEGINS...POSSIBLY EVEN AS A LITTLE WET SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 3Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO PREDOMINATELY IFR /DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS/ AT BGM/ITH AFTER 7Z WITH OTHER SITES DROPPING TO IFR FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO SOLID MVFR EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 13Z AND THEN VFR BY 18-21Z EXCEPT AT SYR WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH 09/00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15KTS (INCREASING TO 45KTS AT 2000FT AGL) TONIGHT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY TOMORROW BY 15Z AND THEN MARKEDLY STRENGTHENING TO 15-25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING /DUE TO WET-BULB PROCESSES/ OVER STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR INITIALLY HAD THAT FUZZY SNOW LOOK TO IT...AND KELZ AND KBFD CHECKED IN WITH SNOW AT THE HOURLY SO SUSPECT THERE ARE FLAKES FALLING OVER OUR HILLS OUT WEST TOO. ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAIN ONSET BY AN HOUR OR SO AS PRECIP IS ROCKETING INTO THE AREA. IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO BEING ON SCHEDULE...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES NEEDED TO BE BUMPED UP ANYWAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS MAINLY WEST. TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS CAN BE TWEAKED LATER. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD, WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062. FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037. PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047- 048-072. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAB ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 651 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .AVIATION /080000Z-090000Z/... EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS AS RAIN BEGINS...POSSIBLY EVEN AS A LITTLE WET SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 3Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO PREDOMINATELY IFR /DUE PRIMARILY TO CIGS/ AT BGM/ITH AFTER 7Z WITH OTHER SITES DROPPING TO IFR FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO SOLID MVFR EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 13Z AND THEN VFR BY 18-21Z EXCEPT AT SYR WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD THROUGH 09/00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15KTS (INCREASING TO 45KTS AT 2000FT AGL) TONIGHT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY TOMORROW BY 15Z AND THEN MARKEDLY STRENGTHENING TO 15-25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING /DUE TO WET-BULB PROCESSES/ OVER STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR INITIALLY HAD THAT FUZZY SNOW LOOK TO IT...AND KELZ AND KBFD CHECKED IN WITH SNOW AT THE HOURLY SO SUSPECT THERE ARE FLAKES FALLING OVER OUR HILLS OUT WEST TOO. ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAIN ONSET BY AN HOUR OR SO AS PRECIP IS ROCKETING INTO THE AREA. IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO BEING ON SCHEDULE...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES NEEDED TO BE BUMPED UP ANYWAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS MAINLY WEST. TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS CAN BE TWEAKED LATER. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD, WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062. FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037. PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072. && $$ AVIATION...JMA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 634 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING /DUE TO WET-BULB PROCESSES/ OVER STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR INITIALLY HAD THAT FUZZY SNOW LOOK TO IT...AND KELZ AND KBFD CHECKED IN WITH SNOW AT THE HOURLY SO SUSPECT THERE ARE FLAKES FALLING OVER OUR HILLS OUT WEST TOO. ELSEWHERE...ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAIN ONSET BY AN HOUR OR SO AS PRECIP IS ROCKETING INTO THE AREA. IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO BEING ON SCHEDULE...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES NEEDED TO BE BUMPED UP ANYWAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS MAINLY WEST. TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS CAN BE TWEAKED LATER. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD, WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7. AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE RGN THIS EVNG FROM SW TO NE, GNRLY IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. IFR/PSBL LIFR CONDITIONS TNGT WITH RAIN. ADDED LLWS TO TAFS FOR THE OVRNGT PD, GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LVL JET. PCPN SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TNGT, WITH LINGERING PCPN TMRW MRNG. E TO SE WINDS TNGT, BCMG GUSTY (20-25) AT ELEVATED SITES, SHIFTING TO SW TMRW MRNG. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY TMRW, SPCLY IN THE AFTN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062. FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037. PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAB ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 315 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLDS INCREASING THIS AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN TO LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 12Z MONDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WITH BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCURRING MAINLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SE HALF OF PA THRU SE NYS. BUT GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE PA RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES FROM THE LAST EVENT AND ALSO INCREASING SELY FLOW AND UPSLOPE ISSUES, WE FELT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING PROBLEM. THEREFORE WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST FA. ALSO ISSUED WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. THE NAM DATA SHOWS A SECONDARY MAX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH SELY FLOW MAKING THE AREA PRONE TO HIGHER PRECIP AMTS AND ONGOING PROBLEMS AT WEST CANADA CREEK AND RISES ON MOHAWK RIVER, DECIDED TO ALSO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THE NAM, GFS AND RUC PROFILES ARE SHOWING A START AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE PROFILES AND HPC WINTER WX SHOWING SOME SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF A LITTLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MONDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO SE QUEBEC BY AFTERNOON. CAA WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ESP WRN/NRN CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING IN THE AFTN. MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LAKE EFFECT OCCURS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME SHSN FROM LAKE ERIE BAND ACROSS FINGER LAKES REGION, THUS LOW CHC POPS MAINLY WEST. TUESDAY...SFC TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA WITH SCT SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS AND THIS CAN BE TWEAKED LATER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME ACTIVE WX IN THE OFFING FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. TUES NGT AND WED WILL FEATURE LES SNOW TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL LOOK AT MDL PROFILES SHOWS POTNL FOR ADVISORY/WARNING ACCUMS DURING THIS PD, WITH WELL ALIGNED 290-300 FLOW, HIGH INVERSION, XCLNT OMEGA/DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CIGS, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND POTNL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO S/WV TROF AND GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH FAIR WX FOR THU, GREATER UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST BY LATE WEEK, WITH A CDFNT XPCTD TO DROP INTO CNTRL NY ON SAT. HPC GUIDANCE HAS IT NEARLY STNRY ACRS THE SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY MRNG. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD S OF THE FNT, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND POTNL FOR MIXED PCPN N OF IT. WE STAYED WITH HPC FOR FNTL PSN, BUT AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FNT WILL LIFT NWD WITH FCST AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SAT NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GTLAKES. AT ANY RATE, WE PLAYED THE POTNL FOR SOME FZRA N OF THE BNDRY, AND WENT WITH COOLER MAXES, FOR NXT SAT/SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR MDL TRENDS THIS WEEK, AS SCENARIO ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTNL FOR SOME HVY PCPN DAYS 6-7. && .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH CI/AC DECK WILL LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE RGN THIS EVNG FROM SW TO NE, GNRLY IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. IFR/PSBL LIFR CONDITIONS TNGT WITH RAIN. ADDED LLWS TO TAFS FOR THE OVRNGT PD, GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LVL JET. PCPN SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE TNGT, WITH LINGERING PCPN TMRW MRNG. E TO SE WINDS TNGT, BCMG GUSTY (20-25) AT ELEVATED SITES, SHIFTING TO SW TMRW MRNG. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY TMRW, SPCLY IN THE AFTN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ057-062. FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-037. PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 645 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...EARLY UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUTER BANKS NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS PER LATEST OBS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST BATCH LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WL BE ASSOC WITH ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CVRG WILL BE INLAND AND CONT WITH CAT POPS INLAND TO LIKELY/CHC CLOSER TO COAST. EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BEST ISENT LIFT MOVES N OF REGION. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR BUT NOT MUCH FORCING SO JUST KEPT CHCY POPS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON AND EXPECT BAND OF SHRA POSS TSRA TO CROSS REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WENT WITH A PERIOD OF CAT POPS WITH FROPA MON MORN THEN RAPIDLY DRIES MON AFTN AS GOOD CAA KICKS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTAB WILL BE VERY LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND MON SO KEPT TSRA MENTION TO SLIGHT CHC. AS MENTIONED BEFORE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS FOR SEVERE HOWEVER HARD TO GET MUCH IF CAPES REMAIN VERY SMALL. WL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STRONGER CELL CLOSELY FOR POSS ROTATION HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TONIGHT INTO MON MORN THEN STRONG CAA WL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS MON AFTN. && LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONT DRY THROUGH THE EXTEND FCST. STRONG SRT WAVE WL ROTATE THRU THE REGION TUE AFTN AND EVENING HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECT PRECIP. BRIEF BUT GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MILD AGAIN AS HGTS BUILD ALONG THE E CST WITH A TRF IN THE WRN U.S. && AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC THIS AFTN WITH CLOUDS LOWERING OVER RTES. CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF REGION LATE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3K FT AND STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM BUT CURRENT FEELING IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AS BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND HAVE PROB30 FOR TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CDFNT MOVES EAST OF RTES AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING. && MARINE...ELY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY AND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL REACH SCA CONDITIONS AROUND 00Z PER THE GFS WITH THE NAM AND RUC ABOUT 3 HRS BEHIND. TO PRESERVE CONTINUITY CONTINUING HEADLINES STARTING SCA AT 00Z ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN GFS ADVERTISING. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WINDS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AS OBSERVED AT 3OSE NEW RIVER BUOY WITH 71F WATER TEMPS. FEELING IS BEST MIXING/STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE...SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WHERE THE WATER TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG POST FRONTAL CAA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SCA ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156- 158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ JBM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 329 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST BATCH LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WL BE ASSOC WITH ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CVRG WILL BE INLAND AND CONT WITH CAT POPS INLAND TO LIKELY/CHC CLOSER TO COAST. EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AS BEST ISENT LIFT MOVES N OF REGION. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR BUT NOT MUCH FORCING SO JUST KEPT CHCY POPS IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON AND EXPECT BAND OF SHRA POSS TSRA TO CROSS REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WENT WITH A PERIOD OF CAT POPS WITH FROPA MON MORN THEN RAPIDLY DRIES MON AFTN AS GOOD CAA KICKS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE INSTAB WILL BE VERY LIMITED LATER TONIGHT AND MON SO KEPT TSRA MENTION TO SLIGHT CHC. AS MENTIONED BEFORE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS FOR SEVERE HOWEVER HARD TO GET MUCH IF CAPES REMAIN VERY SMALL. WL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STRONGER CELL CLOSELY FOR POSS ROTATION HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TONIGHT INTO MON MORN THEN STRONG CAA WL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS MON AFTN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONT DRY THROUGH THE EXTEND FCST. STRONG SRT WAVE WL ROTATE THRU THE REGION TUE AFTN AND EVENING HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECT PRECIP. BRIEF BUT GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MILD AGAIN AS HGTS BUILD ALONG THE E CST WITH A TRF IN THE WRN U.S. && .AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SC THIS AFTN WITH CLOUDS LOWERING OVER RTES. CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF REGION LATE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3K FT AND STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM BUT CURRENT FEELING IS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AS BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND HAVE PROB30 FOR TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CDFNT MOVES EAST OF RTES AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING. && .MARINE...ELY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY AND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL REACH SCA CONDITIONS AROUND 00Z PER THE GFS WITH THE NAM AND RUC ABOUT 3 HRS BEHIND. TO PRESERVE CONTINUITY CONTINUING HEADLINES STARTING SCA AT 00Z ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN GFS ADVERTISING. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WINDS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AS OBSERVED AT 3OSE NEW RIVER BUOY WITH 71F WATER TEMPS. FEELING IS BEST MIXING/STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE...SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WHERE THE WATER TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG POST FRONTAL CAA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SCA ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156- 158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SHORT TERM...FREDERICK LONG TERM...FREDERICK AVIATION...KENNEDY MARINE...KENNEDY nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1121 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...PRECIP IS SLOW TO MOVE NE AND NOW LOOKS LIKE CSTL SITES MAY NOT SEE MUCH THIS AFTN. DID QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS/QPF CST THIS AFTN AND TO RAISE TEMPS A BIT GIVEN CRNT MSUNNY SKIES MANY SPOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ AVIATION /15Z-18Z/...MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS RTES. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS RTES MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS RTES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE MONDAY MORNING WITH BEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && MARINE...LIGHT E TO NELY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GFS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS SCA CONDITIONS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. NAM AND RUC HOLDS OFF SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. WITH CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF STREAM WATERS ARE CLOSE TO SHORE AS INDICATED BY 70F WATER TEMP AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 72F WATER TEMP AT 30 SE NEW RIVER INLET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE GALES SOUTH TO THE CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SE PORTION OF THE ZONE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE POST FRONTAL NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. && $$ SHORT TERM...FREDERICK nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1029 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...PRECIP CONTS TO INCREASE TO THE SW WHERE ISENT LIFT IS INCREASING. THESE SHRA SHLD GRAD SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPCLY INLAND DURING AFTN. DELAYED ONSET OF HIGHER POPS A BIT FORM PREVIOUS FCST BUT STILL EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA BEFORE 00Z FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES. GIVEN COOLER LOWS THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS DROPPED HIGHS A BIT KEEPING MOST AREAS IN MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /15Z-18Z/...MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS RTES. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS RTES MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS RTES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE MONDAY MORNING WITH BEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE...LIGHT E TO NELY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. GFS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS SCA CONDITIONS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. NAM AND RUC HOLDS OFF SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. WITH CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF STREAM WATERS ARE CLOSE TO SHORE AS INDICATED BY 70F WATER TEMP AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 72F WATER TEMP AT 30 SE NEW RIVER INLET WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE GALES SOUTH TO THE CAPE LOOKOUT TO SURF CITY ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SE PORTION OF THE ZONE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE POST FRONTAL NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. && $$ SHORT TERM...FREDERICK AVIATION...KENNEDY MARINE...KENNEDY nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1004 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .UPDATE...15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED N OF MN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH MN. 2-3MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES LOCATED ACROSS THE FA. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND W OF THE VALLEY ARE GENERALLY 20-30MPH AND EXPECT LOCATIONS E OF THE VALLEY TO REACH CLOSE TO THESE VALUES BY NOON AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES E. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY AS 12Z RUC/NAM SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND 925-850MB WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. CLEARING LINE NOW (16Z) LOCATED ALONG W EDGE OF THE VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHEAR AXIS LOCATED NEAR THIS CLEARING LINE AND 12Z NAM/RUC SHOWS GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DO EXPECT THIS CLEARING LINE TO MAKE DECENT PROGRESS E TODAY. WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY THUS LOWING SKY COVER ALONG AND W OF THE VALLEY TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND W OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP BY AFTERNOON. THUS...AFTER INITIAL STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS DURING THE MORNING DO THINK THAT TEMPS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA. E OF THE VALLEY...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH LONGER CLOUD COVER TEMPS SHOULD BE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT MAX T GRID CHANGED LITTLE. SHEAR AXIS PROVIDING WEAK LIFT AND SNOW IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS MN...BUT REPORTS ARE SCATTERED AND LIGHT...THUS WILL LOWER POPS AND MENTION SCT SW FOR TODAY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ TG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1016 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND 18Z GFS STILL WITH THE MOST PRECIP OUT OF THIS CLIPPER. NAM STILL MUCH DRIER...WITH RUC THROUGH 12Z IN BETWEEN. GIVEN STILL DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING A BIT OF GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND TAKEN DOWN PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... STILL VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL WIND GUSTS SUBSIDING A BIT. STILL PRETTY DRY IN LOWER LAYERS...AND AM NOT EXPECTING CIGS BELOW 5000 TIL AFTER ABOUT 06Z. BY 07-09Z...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR MAINLY FROM 09-14Z. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ONLY ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUM...WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH BEST LIFT. FROPA EXPECTED AT KDAY/KCVG/KLUK NEAR 14-16Z AND AT KILN/KCMH/KLCK FROM 16-18Z...AFTER WHICH GUSTY WINDS TO 24KTS TIL END OF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WERE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUE MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES INSTABILITIY BEHIND THE CLIPPER. LAKE EFFECT MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED AND SLIDE EAST WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET FOR THE MOST PART. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 0Z ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AT 180 HRS 12Z/15TH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES BOTH AT H5 AND THE SFC. L/W WILL BE OVER ERN 1/3 OF CONUS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE THROUGH OHVLY AT THIS TIME. ONLY 1 OR 2 RUNS STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OVER OHVLY WITH A SLOWER FROPA...1 OR 2 HAVE AN ANOMALOUS HIGH N OF NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING 7 OR 8 SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SFC L OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF ERN CANADA WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES OR POSSIBLY LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE MIDWEST. CANADIEN ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND WITHIN ITSELF...LEADING TO A FCST WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE FROM HPC WAS GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. DROPPED SUN NIGHT TEMPS BY 5 DEG FROM HPC FCST AS CDFNT SHOULD BE WELL THROUGH OHVLY BY 12Z MON. MON TEMPS WERE SUN NIGHT LOWS PLUS 2 TO 4 DEG. THIS CORRELATED WELL WITH HPC FCST MINUS 5 TO 7 DEG...ALMOST EXACTLY HOW THE PREV NIGHTS LOWS WERE ATTAINED. BELIEVE THAT HPC HAS TO HEDGE DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES...WHERE I CAN GO A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE STRONG THOUGHTS OF A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MON IN THE STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT. LIKE THE 60-70 POPS FOR THESE PERIODS FROM HPC. PRECIP SHOULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUN. STARTED A MIX IN THE NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSED IT SOUTHEAST ON SUN...WITH ALL SNOW FOR ENTIRE OHVLY BY SUN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE BOTH MODERATE AND CATEGORICAL WITH FROPA BUT DID NOT ENTERTAIN QUITE THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS. FRANKS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST MON JAN 8 2006/ AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... LOW CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED ALL TERMINALS WITH JUST SCT CI EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 30-35KT 850 WINDS CONTINUE TO HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN...WITH 20-30KT GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ARISES AFTER 00Z AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO OH AND TN VALLEYS. 12Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING BULK OF PRECIP INTO KY/TN. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO TERMINALS BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT LOW LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME. THEREFORE ONLY WENT WITH VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z FOR ISOLD -SHSN. LOWER ATMS MOISTENS UP AFTER 06Z...WHILE MIDLEVEL VORT MAX PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT TEMPO -SHSN ACROSS SRN TERMINALS WHICH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD 12Z TUES. HAWBLITZEL && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1245 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007 .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CANT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS WHEN CIGS WILL LIFT TO IFR/MVFR BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE CIGS BLO 400 FT. VSBYS ALSO HOVERING AROUND 1-2SM WHEN RAINING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY INTO NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SLOWLY...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...10Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND 12-14Z FURTHER EAST. CIGS WILL START TO LIFT (TO MVFR) AND WINDS WILL BCM GUSTY AFT FROPA. SNOW SHOWERS MOST LIKELY NE OH/NW PA WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THE MORNING THEN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DEVELOP AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBY WILL BCM VFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTRN. WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT MODEL TIMING DISCREPANCIES WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE PUTTING ANY PRECIP MENTION IN THE TAFS. && .UPDATE(TONIGHT)... THE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OHIO. BEHIND THE LOW THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING PCPN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVER THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS GENERALLY STAYED EAST OF THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .3 INCH FROM MT VERNON TO YOUNGSTOWN. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER AREAS HIT HARD BY FLOODING FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. SO...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FLOODING WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY SLOT CONTINUING OVER THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRICKY PART OF THIS UPDATE DEALS WITH PCPN TYPE. NO SNOW REPORTED ANYWHERE ACROSS OHIO ATTM BUT JUST N OF THE OH/MI BORDER SNOW IS BEING REPORTED. WITH THE LOW TRACKING GENERALLY FROM HTS TO ERI TONIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM QUITE HARD TO HAVE ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN EAST AT CAK AND YNG TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING LATE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PCPN TO SNOW. A LITTLE TRICKER WEST OF I-71. RUC SOUNDINGS AT TOLEDO SUGGEST THAT A MIXTURE MAY BEGIN BY 11 PM AND THEN CHANGE OVER AFTER 2 AM. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW TRACK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MAKE IT FAR TO THE EAST. IN FACT...RUC SOUNDINGS AT 09Z AT CLE SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A SOUNDING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BY 11Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO WRAP IN PRETTY QUICK BY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE OVER THE TOLEDO/FDY AREA. AS FOR THE CLEVELAND/MANSFIELD CORRIDOR WILL GO WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE...WILL GO WITH AN ALL LIQUID FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A CLEVELAND TO WOOSTER LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN LATE TOWARD 11Z EVEN IN THAT REGION AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS IN. POPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY SLOT THERE IS A LULL IN PCPN OVER THE WEST. AM THINKING THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PCPN MOVES IN. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GET TO WORDY AND CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH `PERIODS OF` WORDING FOR THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE GROUND WARM AND DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW THAT HARD ANYWHERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION FOR ALL AREAS WITH SNOW MENTIONED...EXCEPT THE TOL GROUP WHERE LOCAL ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE SNOWBELT EARLY MON MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME RAIN COULD STILL BE MIXING IN AT 12Z. WILL RAISE TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DWPTS EAST. UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... NICE JET ALOFT AND MOISTURE PLUM FROM PINEAPPLE EXPRESS FEEDING RAIN SPREADING INTO AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. MODELS TAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED CENTRAL KY TO NEAR KYNG BY 06Z AND OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF LOW. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING. THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS 1-1.5 INCHES FOR 1 OR 3 HOURS...BUT FELT 3/4 OF AN INCH WAS A BETTER RULER TONIGHT AS SATURATED AS GROUND IS. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH QPF GIVING NW OHIO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND ABOUT 3/4 OF AN INCH NEAR STARK AND HOLMES COUNTY. SINCE SE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED LEAST AMOUNT OR RAIN SHOULD NOT NEED ANY FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NE OF AREA WITH SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE OF RAIN TO SNOW FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NW OH WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN TOLEDO AREA...WHILE IN THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW MOVES NE. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE TOLEDO AREA. WHILE IN NW PA LITTLE OR NONE AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WONT HAPPEN TIL THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. DO EXPECT SNOW BELT TO PICK UP 1-3 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ALBERTA CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR SO. THEN EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH SUNDAY) GFS/ECMWF/DGEX IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID WEEK WARM UP AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. TREND IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ERN US. AT THE SFC A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z SATURDAY HPC HAS FRONT STALLED SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I PREFERRED THE SOLUTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WITH WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER YOU SLICE IT NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WET AND COOLER...WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDDING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR THE LAST 2 DAYS...WENT WITH CONTINUITY AND KEPT CHC POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS N CENTRAL AND NW OHIO. GALE WARNING LERI. PA...GALE WARNING LERI. && $$ UPDATE...MRD SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...LEINS/KOSARIK oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 830 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .UPDATE(TONIGHT)... THE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OHIO. BEHIND THE LOW THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING PCPN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVER THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS GENERALLY STAYED EAST OF THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN .3 INCH FROM MT VERNON TO YOUNGSTOWN. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER AREAS HIT HARD BY FLOODING FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. SO...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE FLOODING WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY SLOT CONTINUING OVER THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRICKY PART OF THIS UPDATE DEALS WITH PCPN TYPE. NO SNOW REPORTED ANYWHERE ACROSS OHIO ATTM BUT JUST N OF THE OH/MI BORDER SNOW IS BEING REPORTED. WITH THE LOW TRACKING GENERALLY FROM HTS TO ERI TONIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM QUITE HARD TO HAVE ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN EAST AT CAK AND YNG TONIGHT. RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING LATE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY PCPN TO SNOW. A LITTLE TRICKER WEST OF I-71. RUC SOUNDINGS AT TOLEDO SUGGEST THAT A MIXTURE MAY BEGIN BY 11 PM AND THEN CHANGE OVER AFTER 2 AM. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW TRACK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MAKE IT FAR TO THE EAST. IN FACT...RUC SOUNDINGS AT 09Z AT CLE SUGGEST ALL RAIN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING A SOUNDING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BY 11Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 09Z WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO WRAP IN PRETTY QUICK BY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE OVER THE TOLEDO/FDY AREA. AS FOR THE CLEVELAND/MANSFIELD CORRIDOR WILL GO WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE...WILL GO WITH AN ALL LIQUID FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A CLEVELAND TO WOOSTER LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN LATE TOWARD 11Z EVEN IN THAT REGION AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS IN. POPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY SLOT THERE IS A LULL IN PCPN OVER THE WEST. AM THINKING THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PCPN MOVES IN. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GET TO WORDY AND CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WITH `PERIODS OF` WORDING FOR THE NIGHT. ALSO...WITH THE GROUND WARM AND DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW THAT HARD ANYWHERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION FOR ALL AREAS WITH SNOW MENTIONED...EXCEPT THE TOL GROUP WHERE LOCAL ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE SNOWBELT EARLY MON MORNING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME RAIN COULD STILL BE MIXING IN AT 12Z. WILL RAISE TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DWPTS EAST. UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM. && .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO SW NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY BUT WILL SEE WRAP AROUND RAIN/SNOW MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. THINK CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND BROUGHT ALL SITES DOWN TO IFR BY LATE EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH A FEW HOURS OF 2SM -SHSN. TOMORROW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS. ALL SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. BUFR DATA INDICATING 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL LIKELY START BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... NICE JET ALOFT AND MOISTURE PLUM FROM PINEAPPLE EXPRESS FEEDING RAIN SPREADING INTO AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. MODELS TAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED CENTRAL KY TO NEAR KYNG BY 06Z AND OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF LOW. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOODING. THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS 1-1.5 INCHES FOR 1 OR 3 HOURS...BUT FELT 3/4 OF AN INCH WAS A BETTER RULER TONIGHT AS SATURATED AS GROUND IS. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH QPF GIVING NW OHIO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND ABOUT 3/4 OF AN INCH NEAR STARK AND HOLMES COUNTY. SINCE SE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED LEAST AMOUNT OR RAIN SHOULD NOT NEED ANY FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NE OF AREA WITH SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE OF RAIN TO SNOW FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NW OH WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN TOLEDO AREA...WHILE IN THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW MOVES NE. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE TOLEDO AREA. WHILE IN NW PA LITTLE OR NONE AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WONT HAPPEN TIL THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. DO EXPECT SNOW BELT TO PICK UP 1-3 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ALBERTA CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING A QUICK INCH OR SO. THEN EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH SUNDAY) GFS/ECMWF/DGEX IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID WEEK WARM UP AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. TREND IS FOR AN AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ERN US. AT THE SFC A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z SATURDAY HPC HAS FRONT STALLED SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I PREFERRED THE SOLUTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF WITH WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER YOU SLICE IT NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WET AND COOLER...WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDDING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEKEND...EVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR THE LAST 2 DAYS...WENT WITH CONTINUITY AND KEPT CHC POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS N CENTRAL AND NW OHIO. PA...NONE. LE...GALE WARNING. && $$ UPDATE...MRD SHORT TERM...DJB LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...LEINS oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1259 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACORSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR OR LIFR AFTER 00Z. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES MVFR OR IFR. AS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LIFTS NORTH THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST VIRIGNIA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND RAIN WILL END IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. VISIBILITES WILL RECOVER TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AT ROA...LYH AND DAN WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOWERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... APPROACHING SYSTEM REAMINS ON TRACK WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA AND RUC SPREAD THE RAIN WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE RISING. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION (BELOW) DETAILS THE SITUATION WELL. COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. RAIN ENDS AND CIGS AND VSBYS SHUD THEN IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT MOST STILL MVFR CATEGORY AND POSSIBLY IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AT BLF THRU 12Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING AS ENERGY DROPS THRU TEXAS. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTR EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC IS BEING TAPPED AS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO BEGINS TO OPEN UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS INTRODUCING THE THREAT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ADND HEAVY RAIN. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND MANY RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK...ESP IN THE DAN RIVER BASIN. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE WEST VIRGINIA FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONTAL BNDRY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR POISED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BUT ACCUMS SHUD BE LIGHT AS BNDRY LAYER TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK. HOWEVER A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP KEEP THE EASTERN TROF IN PLACE AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE WESTERN MTNS. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... BROAD SFC HIGH ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT STRATOCU DECK ACRS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS... HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS MOISTURE MAY GET SQUEEZED UNDER LOWERING INVERSION WITH SOME CLOUDS PERSISTING. OTHERWISE ALL EYES TURN TO DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG SFC FRONT OVR THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPR WAVE KICKING EAST THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A VFR LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER QUICKLY BY LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF QUITE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE POOLING JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WIND SHEAR A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL DESPITE SOMEWHAT BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW GIVEN VERY STRONG JET ALOFT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH THRU THE PIEDMONT...WITH WINDS LIKELY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... QUIET EVENING...THE QUIET B4 THE STORM. THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE ZFP ATTM IS TO CUT BACK ON THE DRIZZLE IN THE WEST. WENT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. HIGH CLOUD BASES DO NOT SUPPORT THAT MUCH DRIZZLE EXCEPT MAYBE THE VERY HIGHEST ELV. REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED. SET A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY. THE 60 DEGREE TMAX IN BCB CLIPPED THE OLD RECORD OF 59 FROM A DECADE AGO. A RECORD MAX TMIN IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH BCB AND ROA... AS LONG AS TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW 44 DEG OR 55 DEG RESPECTIVELY B4 MIDNIGHT. AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... BKN/OVC HIGH MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT BLF/LWB EARLY THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO IFR AT BLF TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY MVFR TO ALL SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 500 MB TROF WILL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO THAT WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROF. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PROVIDE STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ONCE THE DEEP UPPER TROF IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...A CLIPPER WILL PUSH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO FILL IN CLOUDS AGAIN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE...TOWARD WARMER NUMBERS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE SOME PARAMETERS THAN THE NAM. BUT BOTH INDICATE STRONG Q-V FORCING AND SOME NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALIGNED ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS WHENEVER THE LIFT COMES THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROF...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS...AROUND 1.1 INCHES AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN THE +8 TO +10 RANGE AND PROVIDING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY 18Z AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. MODELS SHOWING TWO MAIN BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION. ONE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS. THIS SCENARIO HAS MANY ELEMENTS OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS/UPSLOPE CASES DOCUMENTED IN OUR FORECAST OFFICE COOL SEASON HEAVY RAIN CLIMATOLOGY. SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE DAN RIVER BASIN. WITH BASIN AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RESPONSE FROM THE RIVERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE WILL BE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN 12 HOURS WITH +5 TO +7 MB PRESSURE RISES. GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF FAST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BRIEFLY TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. BUT EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER REACH COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NCEP MEAN/GSP. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1100 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... APPROACHING SYSTEM REAMINS ON TRACK WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA AND RUC SPREAD THE RAIN WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE RISING. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION (BELOW) DETAILS THE SITUATION WELL. COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY. RAIN ENDS AND CIGS AND VSBYS SHUD THEN IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT MOST STILL MVFR CATEGORY AND POSSIBLY IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AT BLF THRU 12Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING AS ENERGY DROPS THRU TEXAS. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTR EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC IS BEING TAPPED AS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO BEGINS TO OPEN UP. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS INTRODUCING THE THREAT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ADND HEAVY RAIN. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND MANY RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK...ESP IN THE DAN RIVER BASIN. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE WEST VIRGINIA FOR TONIGHT. AS FRONTAL BNDRY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR POISED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BUT ACCUMS SHUD BE LIGHT AS BNDRY LAYER TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ALLOW SNOW TO STICK. HOWEVER A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP KEEP THE EASTERN TROF IN PLACE AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE WESTERN MTNS. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... BROAD SFC HIGH ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT STRATOCU DECK ACRS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS... HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS MOISTURE MAY GET SQUEEZED UNDER LOWERING INVERSION WITH SOME CLOUDS PERSISTING. OTHERWISE ALL EYES TURN TO DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG SFC FRONT OVR THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPR WAVE KICKING EAST THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A VFR LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACRS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER QUICKLY BY LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF QUITE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE POOLING JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WIND SHEAR A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL DESPITE SOMEWHAT BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW GIVEN VERY STRONG JET ALOFT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH THRU THE PIEDMONT...WITH WINDS LIKELY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... QUIET EVENING...THE QUIET B4 THE STORM. THE ONLY TWEAKS TO THE ZFP ATTM IS TO CUT BACK ON THE DRIZZLE IN THE WEST. WENT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. HIGH CLOUD BASES DO NOT SUPPORT THAT MUCH DRIZZLE EXCEPT MAYBE THE VERY HIGHEST ELV. REMAINDER OF THE FCST UNCHANGED. SET A FEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY. THE 60 DEGREE TMAX IN BCB CLIPPED THE OLD RECORD OF 59 FROM A DECADE AGO. A RECORD MAX TMIN IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH BCB AND ROA... AS LONG AS TEMPS DO NOT FALL BELOW 44 DEG OR 55 DEG RESPECTIVELY B4 MIDNIGHT. AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... BKN/OVC HIGH MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT BLF/LWB EARLY THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO IFR AT BLF TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY MVFR TO ALL SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 500 MB TROF WILL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO THAT WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROF. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PROVIDE STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ONCE THE DEEP UPPER TROF IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...A CLIPPER WILL PUSH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO FILL IN CLOUDS AGAIN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE...TOWARD WARMER NUMBERS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE SOME PARAMETERS THAN THE NAM. BUT BOTH INDICATE STRONG Q-V FORCING AND SOME NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALIGNED ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS WHENEVER THE LIFT COMES THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROF...BRINGING IN UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS...AROUND 1.1 INCHES AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN THE +8 TO +10 RANGE AND PROVIDING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY 18Z AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. MODELS SHOWING TWO MAIN BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION. ONE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS. THIS SCENARIO HAS MANY ELEMENTS OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS/UPSLOPE CASES DOCUMENTED IN OUR FORECAST OFFICE COOL SEASON HEAVY RAIN CLIMATOLOGY. SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE DAN RIVER BASIN. WITH BASIN AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RESPONSE FROM THE RIVERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE WILL BE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN 12 HOURS WITH +5 TO +7 MB PRESSURE RISES. GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF FAST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BRIEFLY TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. BUT EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER REACH COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NCEP MEAN/GSP. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1045 AM CST MON JAN 8 2007 .UPDATED... THE MODELS HAD BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY EXITING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z RUNS HOLD BACK ON THE LIGHT SNOW NOW HOWEVER...MOVING IT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE NAM BRINGS THE MAIN LIGHT BAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. IN BOTH MODELS...WHAT QG CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED IS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY 2-D FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE. LATEST SFC OBS AND 88-D IMAGERY DO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE...ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND ND. THE RUC QPF IS SIMILAR IN TIMING...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE...THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/LOW QPF TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE TODAY ALSO. WILL ADJUST THE ONGOING FORECAST TO MOVE ALL THE POPS TO TONIGHT...AND ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ RIECK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 403 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2007 .DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING OF POPS WITH TWO SEPERATE SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR/RUC ANIMATION SHOWS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER MKX CWA. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MRNG. A FEW FAVORABLE FACTRORS FOR ISOLD TO SCT MEASUREABLE PCPN COMING INTO PLAY FOR LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STG UPR JET SHIFTING INTO OH VLY THERE IS A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE VCNTY SE WI WHERE MODELS DVLP POCKET OF DECENT UPR DVRG. THIS DVRG NOT WITHIN THE NORMALLY OBSERVED LFQ OR RRQ OF JET CORE. DURG THE AFTN AND EVE HRS THERE IS AN INCREASE IN DCVA AS H5 TROF AXIS APPCHS CWA. AT THE TIME OF THE H8 FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVE THERE IS SOME SML CAPE ON THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS SOME FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH COINCIDE WITH THE OTHER FORCING PLAYERS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY EVENTUALLY BE OVERCOME. ISENTROPICALLY THIS SYS DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BOTH RH AND UPGLIDE WISE. BL TEMPS MAY BE INITIALLY WRM ENUF TO SUPPORT SOME SHRA B4 CHANGING OVER TO SHSN AS LOW LEVELS EVAPORATIVELY COOL WITH SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING AS WELL WITH UPPER TROF COMING ACRS. GFS SLOWING DOWN CLIPPER FOR MONDAY BUT OVERALL STILL A MON AFTN AND EVE EVENT. WILL HAVE SML POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. VORT TRACK AND POSN OF UPR JET SUGGEST BULK OF BEST PCPN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT SOME LGT QPF CANNOT BE RULED OUT HERE...ESP FOR THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA. TUE AND WED LOOK QUIET WITH SFC AND UPR RDGING. QUICK SHOT OF SOME COLDER H8 TEMPS ON TUE AND THEN H8 WAA TAKES HOLD FOR WED. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SW AND WILL HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING FOR THU. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 10 wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 400 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. THE CLOUDY...RAINY AND WARM WEATHER ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST DURING MONDAY HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH A COOLER MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS FILTERING IN. CLOSER TO HOME AT THE SURFACE WILL SEE A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN BIG BEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALSO FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S AND DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. && .SHORT TERM... (TODAY-THURSDAY) GENERALLY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROCEED EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS A GOOD BET. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO 65 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OR DIP JUST BELOW ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A HARD FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS. DESPITE THE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO EVEN PREVENT THE SETTLING OF FROST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. DESPITE NEARLY 100% OF THE POSSIBLE SUNSHINE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH SHOULD PREVENT FULL AFTERNOON MIXING AND WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME BACK UP INTO THE 60S ALL LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY-TUESDAY) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S. NEXT SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA WILL THEN BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASE THIS TO CHANCE POPS FAR WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING SLOWLY EAST DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS BEING HINTED AT BY THE GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER GULF LOW TAKING SHAPE. && .AVIATION... WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A WIND FORECAST SINCE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATE IN THE MORNING AS DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO FALL JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGIONS. RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A TIME BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALABAMA BUT WITH KBDI VALUES WELL BELOW 500...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 65 31 59 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 05 PANAMA CITY 65 37 61 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 05 DOTHAN 62 31 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 05 ALBANY 61 30 57 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 05 VALDOSTA 64 32 58 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 05 CROSS CITY 65 33 61 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 05 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS FOR ALL EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIREWX...FOURNIER REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 322 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... WINDS STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. HAVE NOT REALLY HAD SUSTAINED OR GUSTS SPEEDS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IN OUR AREA. INDEED...SHORT TERM RUC/NAM MODELS SHOWING BEST AREA FOR STRONGEST GUSTS TO BE JUST TO OUR W AND SW WHERE SUBSIDENCE...LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND TEMP ADVECTION ARE STRONGEST. WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 6 AM AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION EXTENSIONS. ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS...TROP FOLD MOVES EAST BY 14Z...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS NEAR 40-45 MPH WILL EXIST NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...THEN WINDS SUBSIDE A LITTLE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...THOUGH STILL GUSTY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WHICH HAS OUR RADAR SCOPE FILLED UP RIGHT NOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BY MID MORNING...WITH A CLEARING SKY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS LEADING TO SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB MUCH TODAY. WILL START OUT THIS MORNING WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST TODAY AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...CAN`T SEE HIGHS MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY) RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS RISING ACROSS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S COMMON...EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTRUDE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE FOLLOWED A GFS/SREF/UKMET SOLUTION ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. ALL 3 SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AND ARE ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER NAM. THE FASTER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 20S TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS ESTHERVILLE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS. BOUNDARY POSITION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE LIKELY DUE TO WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DUE TO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR WEDGES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THE 850MB WARM NOSE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAMONI TO OTTUMWA. NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND W OF LWD-DSM-AMW-MCW LINE TIL 12Z. && $$ MOYER/DONAVON ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007 .DISCUSSION SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THERE ARE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONAL SITES WITH GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND EVEN A COUPLE ISOLATED SPOTS OVER 40KTS. PROFILERS AND VWPS IN THIS REGION SHOW 500 METER WINDS AROUND 40KTS...WITH RUC 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WAS TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 8 AM AS HIGHER 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. DID CONSIDER EXPANDING THE ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE BETTER LAPSE RATES FALL OFF QUICKLY BY 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO DETERMINE IF ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENT ARE NEEDED. OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING. DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS IN THE WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF IOWA. HOWEVER I KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE TEMPERATURE "ROLLER COASTER" THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE COLDER AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLDEST PUSH OF AIR EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL RESULT IS MUCH COOLER HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...GRIDDED HIGHS WILL HAVE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES. AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA CLAIMING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...THERE COULD STILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS AND RH VALUES CLOSELY DURING SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. MODELS STILL AREN`T IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS BEING QUICKER. I TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS AS ITS SOLUTION WAS SIMILAR TO THE 21Z SREF MEAN SOLUTION. ON THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES NICELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND I DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS A BIT. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME SO KEPT POPS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. THE FRONT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN. FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD I ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA AND WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE I RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. I WOULDN`T BE SUPRISED IF THESE NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE AS THE SREF OUTPUT INDICATES LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME ICY PRECIPITATION AS THE ARTIC FRONT UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WX GRIDS WAS TO ADD SOME SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SOME ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION MAY BE PRESENT. ALSO STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY OOZE SOUTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL ANY PRECIP WHICH FALLS AS RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE SREF WANTS TO KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE GREATER QPF ACROSS AREAS WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS. SAW .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007 LATEST LOOK AT RUC AND 18Z RUNS...ALONG WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM IS SHOWING THAT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT BEST LOOKING TO BE ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF WINDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT AS LOW LEVELS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SCALE BACK THE START AND END TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO FOCUS IT ON THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN...AND ALSO TAKE OUT NORTHEAST KANSAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE BETTER GRADIENT WILL BE OVER MISSOURI. EXPECT NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALSO TO GET PRETTY GUSTY...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS AS THAT DEVELOPS. ALSO WATCHING A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING SOUTHEAST ON OMAHA RADAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW SO AT THIS POINT...NOT PLANNING ON ADDING AS ANY RAIN TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SINCE WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE VERY LOCALIZED AND LIGHT. PLAN ON HANDLING WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS IF SPRINKLES DO POP UP. A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED WITH MY NORTHEAST AREAS...WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW BY THAT TIME MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LEVELS...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SUCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...SO WILL CALL IT FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007 FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING THE END OF THE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NOT QUITE UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12Z AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEAR 1039MB SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PLAINS ON THE HEALS OF THE EXITING NE US/SE CANADA SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR 45KT CORE OF H925 TO AFFECT THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT. WHILE A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TONIGHT...DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS TO ALLOW SOME OF THE 45KT CORE TO DESCEND. WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FOUND IT PRUDENT TO LET IT GO FOR CONTINUITY SAKE. NONETHELESS...BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS ELONGATED VORTICITY CORE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH BRIEFLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...APPEARS MORE LIKELY AREA FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE VORT MAXIMA. THEREFORE...LEFT ONLY SILENT POPS IN FOR NOW. OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...ALBEIT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTS FALLS SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS GFS PROGS 60KT LLJ TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. DEROCHE GFS SOLUTION HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ECMWF BETWEEN THE TWO. HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH A BLEND WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. COLD AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG INDICATION OF A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO MACON MISSOURI. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE ACTUAL SCENARIO AND WHERE THE FREEZING LINE WILL SET UP. THINK CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL SEE RAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENT. WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THERE WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DO THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH MOVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NRR && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR MOZ001>005-011-012. KS...NONE. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 439 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE 00Z NAM AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES. THE WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FORCING IS LIMITED WITH SYSTEM...AS NOTED BY BOTH MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. THIS COUPLED WITH MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN WITH THE 285K AND ESPECIALLY THE 280K SURFACE IS PROVIDING INCREASED ARIEL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AS OBSERVED VIA THE KILN WSR-88D. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS MAINLY SNOW...TO SLOWLY PIVOT E AND SSE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RETURNS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO THE WET BULB TEMP...WHICH IS CLOSER TO FREEZING. MOST AREAS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO MELT AS IT REACHES THE GROUND. EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OUT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO BEGIN AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY THURSDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... RADAR SHOWS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS INDIANA. CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY REMAINING VFR WITH THIS PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY EARLY ON. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z WITH SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODELS DO SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO IFR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. HAVE KEPT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ALSO AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND BE GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND 18Z GFS STILL WITH THE MOST PRECIP OUT OF THIS CLIPPER. NAM STILL MUCH DRIER...WITH RUC THROUGH 12Z IN BETWEEN. GIVEN STILL DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING A BIT OF GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND TAKEN DOWN PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WERE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUE MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES INSTABILITIY BEHIND THE CLIPPER. LAKE EFFECT MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED AND SLIDE EAST WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET FOR THE MOST PART. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 0Z ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AT 180 HRS 12Z/15TH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES BOTH AT H5 AND THE SFC. L/W WILL BE OVER ERN 1/3 OF CONUS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE THROUGH OHVLY AT THIS TIME. ONLY 1 OR 2 RUNS STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OVER OHVLY WITH A SLOWER FROPA...1 OR 2 HAVE AN ANOMALOUS HIGH N OF NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING 7 OR 8 SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SFC L OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF ERN CANADA WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES OR POSSIBLY LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE MIDWEST. CANADIEN ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND WITHIN ITSELF...LEADING TO A FCST WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE FROM HPC WAS GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. DROPPED SUN NIGHT TEMPS BY 5 DEG FROM HPC FCST AS CDFNT SHOULD BE WELL THROUGH OHVLY BY 12Z MON. MON TEMPS WERE SUN NIGHT LOWS PLUS 2 TO 4 DEG. THIS CORRELATED WELL WITH HPC FCST MINUS 5 TO 7 DEG...ALMOST EXACTLY HOW THE PREV NIGHTS LOWS WERE ATTAINED. BELIEVE THAT HPC HAS TO HEDGE DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES...WHERE I CAN GO A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE STRONG THOUGHTS OF A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MON IN THE STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT. LIKE THE 60-70 POPS FOR THESE PERIODS FROM HPC. PRECIP SHOULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUN. STARTED A MIX IN THE NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSED IT SOUTHEAST ON SUN...WITH ALL SNOW FOR ENTIRE OHVLY BY SUN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE BOTH MODERATE AND CATEGORICAL WITH FROPA BUT DID NOT ENTERTAIN QUITE THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1252 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... RADAR SHOWS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS INDIANA. CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY REMAINING VFR WITH THIS PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY EARLY ON. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z WITH SNOW ELSEWHERE. MODELS DO SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO IFR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. HAVE KEPT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ALSO AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND BE GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND 18Z GFS STILL WITH THE MOST PRECIP OUT OF THIS CLIPPER. NAM STILL MUCH DRIER...WITH RUC THROUGH 12Z IN BETWEEN. GIVEN STILL DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING A BIT OF GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND TAKEN DOWN PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LATE THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WERE SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER TYPE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUE MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATES INSTABILITIY BEHIND THE CLIPPER. LAKE EFFECT MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WED AND SLIDE EAST WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET FOR THE MOST PART. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 0Z ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AT 180 HRS 12Z/15TH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES BOTH AT H5 AND THE SFC. L/W WILL BE OVER ERN 1/3 OF CONUS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO BE THROUGH OHVLY AT THIS TIME. ONLY 1 OR 2 RUNS STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OVER OHVLY WITH A SLOWER FROPA...1 OR 2 HAVE AN ANOMALOUS HIGH N OF NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING 7 OR 8 SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SFC L OVER OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF ERN CANADA WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES OR POSSIBLY LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE MIDWEST. CANADIEN ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS AND WITHIN ITSELF...LEADING TO A FCST WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. GUIDANCE FROM HPC WAS GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. DROPPED SUN NIGHT TEMPS BY 5 DEG FROM HPC FCST AS CDFNT SHOULD BE WELL THROUGH OHVLY BY 12Z MON. MON TEMPS WERE SUN NIGHT LOWS PLUS 2 TO 4 DEG. THIS CORRELATED WELL WITH HPC FCST MINUS 5 TO 7 DEG...ALMOST EXACTLY HOW THE PREV NIGHTS LOWS WERE ATTAINED. BELIEVE THAT HPC HAS TO HEDGE DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING ISSUES...WHERE I CAN GO A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE STRONG THOUGHTS OF A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MON IN THE STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT. LIKE THE 60-70 POPS FOR THESE PERIODS FROM HPC. PRECIP SHOULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUN. STARTED A MIX IN THE NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSED IT SOUTHEAST ON SUN...WITH ALL SNOW FOR ENTIRE OHVLY BY SUN OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE BOTH MODERATE AND CATEGORICAL WITH FROPA BUT DID NOT ENTERTAIN QUITE THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME IT IS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 740 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING AND TO REFLECT THE CLEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. HAVE NOT REALLY HAD SUSTAINED OR GUSTS SPEEDS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS IN OUR AREA. INDEED...SHORT TERM RUC/NAM MODELS SHOWING BEST AREA FOR STRONGEST GUSTS TO BE JUST TO OUR W AND SW WHERE SUBSIDENCE...LAPSE RATES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND TEMP ADVECTION ARE STRONGEST. WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 6 AM AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION EXTENSIONS. ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS...TROP FOLD MOVES EAST BY 14Z...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS NEAR 40-45 MPH WILL EXIST NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...THEN WINDS SUBSIDE A LITTLE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...THOUGH STILL GUSTY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST TODAY AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...CAN`T SEE HIGHS MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS MORNINGS LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD IS MORE LIKELY UP NORTH WHERE IT HAS CLEARED AND THE TEMP HAS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING. && .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY) RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS RISING ACROSS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S COMMON...EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTRUDE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE FOLLOWED A GFS/SREF/UKMET SOLUTION ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. ALL 3 SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR AND ARE ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER NAM. THE FASTER SOLUTION WILL HAVE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 20S TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS ESTHERVILLE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS. BOUNDARY POSITION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE LIKELY DUE TO WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND DUE TO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR WEDGES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THE 850MB WARM NOSE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAMONI TO OTTUMWA. NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MOYER/DONAVON ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 PM MST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SATURDAY) ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. STRONG WARMING ALOFT STILL INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY. SNOWPACK WILL OFFSET THE WARMING...BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH. FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY JUST LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT. GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIE FROM MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE. RUC20 FORECASTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS TO THE EAST OF THAT LINE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH NAM SURFACE RH FORECAST. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FORECAST AT THE SURFACE. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EVENING UPDATE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA MAY RISE A BIT IN THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW FAR NORTHWEST. A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCORPORATED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHICH HAS MORE OF A SLEET OR SNOW PROFILE. NO MATTER THE PHASE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSHOOT THE SURFACE BASED COLD LAYER...WHICH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH. SOME CONCERN IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ABOUT WHEN THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KHYS SHOW FREEZING PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT KHLC SATURATION REACHES -10C AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF A NORTON TO GOVE LINE. CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY WITH FURTHER COOLING. .LONG TERM... (SUNDAY - TUESDAY) MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL NEARBY COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE ARCTIC AIR. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THAT TO THE GRIDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEE A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH AND OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE AND ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT COLD AIR...SO BASICALLY USED PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. Q-VECTORS SHOW SOME OCCASIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...SO WILL HAVE A MENTION OF FLURRIES BOTH DAYS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 516 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .UPDATE...ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS...ALONG WITH WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER SYSTEM AND THE STRAITS REGION. SHIP REPORTS OF SUSTAINED 38 KNOTS IN FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH POINT IROQUOIS AND SOUTH WEST PIER IN EASTERN UPPER LAKE/RIVER WATERS. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS LEADING TO DEEP MIXING...AND STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED WINDS. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HELPING TO INCREASE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY CREATING LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S AROUND 20C. WINDS HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE OF A WNW DIRECTION WHICH IS LIMITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE SE HALF OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. DOMINANT BAND THIS MORNING FELL APART AS DIURNAL HEATING DISRUPTED ITS ORGANIZATION...AND MORE OF CELLULAR NATURE TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ONE BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER RUNNING FROM CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED THUS FAR INDICATE AROUND A 1-2 INCH RANGE HAS FALLEN WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS HAS BEEN HELPING TO INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT REGIME GOING INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WINDS LOCKED IN THE 300-310 DIRECTION...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING ONCE THE DISRUPTION FROM DIURNAL HEATING CEASES...AND DEVELOP MORE DOMINANT BANDS. INVERSIONS HEIGHTS START OUT RESPECTABLE AT AROUND 6.5KFT WHILE 850-700MB RH REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PCT AND DELTA T/S STAY AROUND 20C FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...NAM/GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROUGH AXIS FORMING OVER LAKE HURON AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH MAY HELP TO PROVIDE FURTHER CONVERGENCE FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY...AND IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SNOW BANDS THIS EVENING. IF ONE OR TWO DOMINANT BANDS CAN FORM ONCE AGAIN...LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS BAND COULD SEE 3-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AROUND MANCELONA/ELMIRA/ALBA. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...EVEN THOUGH REPORTS THUS FAR SUGGEST MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. MARINE...PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAS BEEN ROUTINELY GUSTING GREATER THAN 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FROM THE STRAITS TO STURGEON POINT. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE. LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP FROM AROUND 7000 FT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2500 FT BY 00Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW DURING THE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SW IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. DELTA T`S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 C DURING THE MORNING AND THEN DROP TO MARGINAL LEVELS (AROUND 13 C) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING WITHIN AREAS TARGETED BY W/NW FLOW DURING THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR (I.E. UNDER AN INCH) DUE TO DIMINISHING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. TIP OF THE WARM FRONT WILL JUST CLIP ERN UPR MICHIGAN...AS WILL DEEPER ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAKE CONTRIBUTION WILL EFFECTIVELY END DURING EARLY EVENING AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM THRU THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NEARLY STRAIGHT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TIP OF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY BUT MAINLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP IN THE MID 20S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OVC SKIES AND ONGOING LOW LEVEL WAA. THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...AS ERN UPR MICHIGAN REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH BETTER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WELL SW OF MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AS WILL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SERVING TO COMPLICATE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS PROFILE AND THUS THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NOW...AND BETTER DEFINE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 30S...WITH LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONSISTING OF A DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER THE US ROCKIES AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE US. THREE DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THE FIRST LOW WILL TRACK NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THRU SRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE THIRD SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW THE SAME BASIC TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW...SWEEPING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL DROP INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK BEHIND THE THIRD SURFACE SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...PROVIDING MIXED PRECIP TO THIS REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE. LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY FROM SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THESE EVENTS DRAW CLOSER. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ019-021-022-027-028 THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ008-020. GALE WARNING LHZ345>348-LSZ321-322-LHZ341-342 THROUGH TONIGHT. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 405 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NW...RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND A LARGE TROUGH COVERING THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS LARGE TROUGH...A 510 DAM UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED HALF WAY BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY COLD UNDER AND IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...AS NOTED BY THE -27C TEMP AT PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO (CWPL) AT 12Z. EVEN AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...INL AND MOOSONEE ONTARIO REPORTED AROUND -18C AT 12Z. WITH 45 KT NW 850MB WINDS AT BOTH INL AND CWPL...THESE COLD READINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE CWA... RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OVERALL BEEN WEAK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. FIRST IS DRY AIR ADVECTION...NOTED BY BELOW ZERO F DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SECOND...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT MOST ARE AROUND 7000 FT BASED ON THE 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAWYER. THIRD...THE FLOW IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...CAUSING MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS WHICH NORMALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY BY THEMSELVES. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT STRONG...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN. MUCH OF THE 850MB WIND OBSERVED ON THE SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM IS BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SURFACE DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION...AND GALE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MANY SITES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTION. AS FAR AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN GOES...A 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WHILE 980S MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NE QUEBEC. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE BRITISH COLUMBIA TROUGH. BY 00Z THU...THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER... 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS AROUND -20C THIS EVENING ONLY WARMING TO -13 TO -17C BY 12Z WED. SINCE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 4C...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. ONE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM TODAY... THOUGH...WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION BACKING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA MOVES TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z. THIS BACKING...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE WESTERN U.P.. WITH THE BETTER FETCH LENGTH ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MOISTENING...HAVE KEPT 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS GOING TONIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN U.P.. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ON WED DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FOR THE NORTHERN U.P.. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECENT DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA...AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS. ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE 750-900MB LAYER... THE VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS. ALSO HAVE HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPS AT 850MB (RISING TO -7C BY 00Z THU OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN) MAY BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THERE. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OBSERVED TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT... AND ESPECIALLY BY WED MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THE DECREASE... ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.P. MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. AS THE RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA ON WED...SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING BACK UP WILL HELP TO WARM THE TEMPERATURES...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER SINCE READINGS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 20S TO AT MOST 30F PER MET/MAV GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE)... WED NIGHT/THU...SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WED EVENING TO ONTARIO THU AFTN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE THE RULE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH FOCUS OF STRONGEST ASCENT/DEEP LAYER MOISTENING GENERALLY ACROSS N HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. CANADIAN/GFS/UKMET RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS. MIXING RATIOS OF 2-3G/KG ON 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB) SUPPORT GENERAL 3-5 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN AXIS OF BEST LIFT/MOISTENING WHICH WILL BE JUST N OF HERE...BUT SRN FRINGE OF SNOW SHOULD IMPACT NRN AND ERN UPPER MI. HAVE PAINTED 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E WHERE THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SSW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FROM EARLY EVENING READINGS DUE TO BLUSTERY S WINDS/WAA AND CLOUD COVER. 850MB WINDS OF 50 KTS AND 8MB/6HR PRES FALL MAX PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WORK TO KEEP SFC WINDS GUSTY. SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE GUSTY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHICH IS FAVORED IN S WIND SITUATIONS (LOCATIONS SUCH AS KISQ/KERY/GRAND MARAIS AND MARQUETTE). PERSISTENT...BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE THU SO ANY LINGERING -SN SHOULD DIMINISH OR EVEN END. SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SLIP BACK INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT THAT AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO GET LES GOING AGAIN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THU NIGHT/FRI...COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK RUNNING FROM JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING N OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THRU UPPER MI THU AFTN/EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED MID RANGE CHC POPS LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING OVER THE SE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...LES SHOULD PICK UP A BIT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AS LAKE-850MB DELTA-T INCREASES TO 13-18C WITH DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FOR A TIME. SAT THRU TUE...WILL BE A COLD PERIOD THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TURN QUITE COLD. OTHER THAN THE COLD...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. 00Z/12Z RUNS IN GENERAL HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THERE ARE A FEW MODEL RUNS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT NOW. ON SAT...ATTENTION WILL BE ON ENERGY OVER THE SW CONUS. AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE...ONE COMPLICATION IS THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING S THRU CNTRL CANADA. 00Z UKMET HAS A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND ACTUALLY BRINGS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES SUN WITH ASSOCIATED 984MB SFC LOW INTO NCNTRL WI BY 00Z MON. WOULD END UP BEING A MIXED PCPN EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF FCST AREA WITH HVY SNOW OVER THE FAR W. GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD BE EXCELLENT TO PROVIDE HVY PCPN. THIS IS A HUGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UKMET RUNS WHICH EITHER HELD ENERGY BACK OVER THE SW OR BROUGHT A WEAK WAVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z UKMET TRENDED WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS A DECENT SFC LOW TRACKING THRU NRN LWR MI WHICH WOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO FCST AREA SUN. ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE AND FARTHER N WITH SFC LOW (SRN PLAINS TO NW IL ACROSS NRN LWR MI)...BUT IT MAINTAINS THE OVERALL POSITIVE TILT TROF ORIENTATION THAT HAS BEEN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN RECENT DAYS. STILL...00Z RUN OFFERS A QUICK HITTING MDT/HVY SNOW EVENT FOR FCST AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN... ESPECIALLY NW 2/3RDS. 12Z ECMWF IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z. 00Z/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THE BULK OF ITS RUNS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH IS TO BRING SFC LOW THRU SE LWR MI. THIS WOULD BRING NRN EDGE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW INTO FCST AREA WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNDER N OR NE WINDS. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW ONE MEMBER WITH SFC LOW TRACKING INTO ERN UPPER MI...BUT REMAINDER OF MEMBERS ARE CLUSTRED CLOSE TO 00Z/06Z OPERATIONAL GFS TRACK WITH ONLY TIMING ISSUES. 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED LOW TRACK S A BIT. 00Z CANADIAN WAS MOST SUPPRESSED WITH SFC LOW TRACK...BUT 12Z RUN NOW BRINGS A 995MB SFC LOW INTO SRN LWR MI MON. OVERALL...MODEL RUNS SINCE 12Z/8JAN SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL OF GETTING SYNOPTIC SNOW INTO UPPER MI...SO WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS ALL AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN. SYSTEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL DUMP INTO THE UPPER LAKES. 00Z GFS BROUGHT BACK THE IDEA OF 850MB TEMPS HEADING TOWARD -30C LATE MON...BUT THAT IS STILL AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. WILL MORE LIKELY SEE 850MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C...SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE...LES WILL CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLSN ADVY UNTIL 4 AM WED MIZ006-007-085. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR AND LSZ245>248. && $$ AJ (SHORT TERM) ROLFSON (LONG TERM) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 353 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HELPING TO INCREASE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY CREATING LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S AROUND 20C. WINDS HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE OF A WNW DIRECTION WHICH IS LIMITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION OVER THE SE HALF OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. DOMINANT BAND THIS MORNING FELL APART AS DIURNAL HEATING DISRUPTED ITS ORGANIZATION...AND MORE OF CELLULAR NATURE TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ONE BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER RUNNING FROM CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS RECEIVED THUS FAR INDICATE AROUND A 1-2 INCH RANGE HAS FALLEN WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS HAS BEEN HELPING TO INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT REGIME GOING INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHEAST AS THE UPSTREAM SHEAR AXIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WINDS LOCKED IN THE 300-310 DIRECTION...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING ONCE THE DISRUPTION FROM DIURNAL HEATING CEASES...AND DEVELOP MORE DOMINANT BANDS. INVERSIONS HEIGHTS START OUT RESPECTABLE AT AROUND 6.5KFT WHILE 850-700MB RH REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PCT AND DELTA T/S STAY AROUND 20C FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...NAM/GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK LAKE INDUCED TROUGH AXIS FORMING OVER LAKE HURON AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH MAY HELP TO PROVIDE FURTHER CONVERGENCE FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY...AND IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SNOW BANDS THIS EVENING. IF ONE OR TWO DOMINANT BANDS CAN FORM ONCE AGAIN...LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS BAND COULD SEE 3-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AROUND MANCELONA/ELMIRA/ALBA. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...EVEN THOUGH REPORTS THUS FAR SUGGEST MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. MARINE...PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAS BEEN ROUTINELY GUSTING GREATER THAN 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING FROM THE STRAITS TO STURGEON POINT. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE. LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP FROM AROUND 7000 FT AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2500 FT BY 00Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW DURING THE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SW IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. DELTA T`S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 C DURING THE MORNING AND THEN DROP TO MARGINAL LEVELS (AROUND 13 C) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING WITHIN AREAS TARGETED BY W/NW FLOW DURING THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR (I.E. UNDER AN INCH) DUE TO DIMINISHING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LOSS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. TIP OF THE WARM FRONT WILL JUST CLIP ERN UPR MICHIGAN...AS WILL DEEPER ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAKE CONTRIBUTION WILL EFFECTIVELY END DURING EARLY EVENING AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM THRU THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NEARLY STRAIGHT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TIP OF THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY BUT MAINLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP IN THE MID 20S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OVC SKIES AND ONGOING LOW LEVEL WAA. THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...AS ERN UPR MICHIGAN REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH BETTER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WELL SW OF MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AS WILL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR SERVING TO COMPLICATE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS PROFILE AND THUS THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NOW...AND BETTER DEFINE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 30S...WITH LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONSISTING OF A DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER THE US ROCKIES AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE US. THREE DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THE FIRST LOW WILL TRACK NE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THRU SRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE THIRD SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW THE SAME BASIC TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW...SWEEPING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL DROP INTO NRN MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORKWEEK BEHIND THE THIRD SURFACE SYSTEM. IN THE MEANTIME...WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LOW WILL SURGE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...PROVIDING MIXED PRECIP TO THIS REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE. LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY FROM SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THESE EVENTS DRAW CLOSER. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ019-021-022-027-028 THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ008-020. GALE WARNING LHZ347-348 THROUGH TONIGHT. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1138 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... 16Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWED UPPER TROUGHING COVERING ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A 510 DAM UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO. 850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY COLD UNDER AND IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...AS NOTED BY THE -27C TEMP AT PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO (CWPL). EVEN AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...INL AND MOOSONEE ONTARIO REPORTED AROUND -18C. WITH 45 KT NW 850MB WINDS AT BOTH INL AND CWPL...THESE COLD READINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE CWA...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OVERALL BEEN WEAK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. FIRST IS DRY AIR ADVECTION... NOTED BY BELOW ZERO F DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SECOND...INVERSION HEIGHTS AT MOST ARE AROUND 7000 FT BASED ON THE 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAWYER. THIRD...THE FLOW IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...CAUSING MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS WHICH NORMALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY BY THEMSELVES. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT STRONG...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN. MUCH OF THE WIND SPEED OBSERVED ON THE SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM IS BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SURFACE DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION...AND GALE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MANY SITES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE LAKE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P....SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTION. AS FAR AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN GOES...A 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE 980S MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NE QUEBEC. && .UPDATE... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING BY A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER NE ONTARIO...EASTWARD. THEREFORE UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE THE COLD 850MB TEMPS OBSERVED AT PICKLE LAKE...BUT READINGS AROUND -20C ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 22Z. THEREFORE MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COLD AIR IS ALSO BRINGING IN DRIER DEWPOINTS... THE EFFECT OF THE INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASE MAY BE NEGATED. IN ADDITION...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER...CLOUD BASES MAY RISE ABOVE THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER...OR THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL BECOME VERY SMALL. ANOTHER PROBLEM THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING IS THE STRONG WINDS WHICH ARE BOTH BREAKING PART THE SNOWFLAKES AND NOT ALLOWING SNOW TO STAY IN ONE SPOT AND ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE GOING FORECAST...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR THE MINIMUM FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE EASTERN U.P.. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO THE SHORTER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLUSTERY OR EVEN INTENSIFY A BIT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM GRANITE ISLAND AND GRAND MARAIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE ZONES AND ALSO CHANGE OUR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NOT MUCH RISE IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ZFP...WSW AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC DEPICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHERN U.P. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS STRETCHING INTO MISSOURI. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS RUNNING NORTH THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC. A SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM IT THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS OTHERWISE LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. 850MB TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOW A POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...WHERE THE TEMPERATURES DROP TO -24C. THIS IS PRODUCING A DELTA-T OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR OF AROUND 21C. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY BELOW 900MB. THE LOWEST INVERSION IS AROUND 3K FEET WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAMPERING LES SNOW GROWTH. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN JAMES BAY TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN U.P...WHILE THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO EXTREME WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVING INTO WESTERN ALBERTA. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL SLIP INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SPILL OVER INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CAUSING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T OF 24C. THE INVERSION WILL LIFT TODAY REACHING 5K FEET OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO AROUND 7K FEET OVER EAST. SOUNDING FORECAST DEPICTS A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900MB AND 850MB OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DRIER BELOW 900MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND -4C TO -9C OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. TRAJECTORY PROGS INDICATE THAT THE ONTARIO AIR MASS WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG (25 TO 35 KTS) OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALSO SHORTEN THE EFFECTIVE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE. THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE ORDER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER THE SNOW PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN U.P. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC DRAWING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. Q-VECTORS SUGGEST MOSTLY DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO MANITOBA. THE SOUNDING FORECAST SHOW THE INVERSION WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO 2.5K FEET OVER THE WEST TO 4.5K FEET OVER THE EAST. WHERE LES SHOULD CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENING THE GRADIENT WINDS. THUS THE WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN INCREASING THE FETCH LENGTH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE. THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR A BETTER POTENTIAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN U.S. SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE MANITOBA LOW AND MAY EVEN DIVERT IT A LITTLE NORTHEAST. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE DELTA-T`S WILL LOWER TO AROUND 15C AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW OVER MANITOBA. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGEST FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPICTED TO PASS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE... ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL ADIABATIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL 850MB TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO GIVE A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS... AND THE SHORT TIME PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SET THE PACE FOR THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPEED INTO THE CWQT AREA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN U.P. MODELS SUPPORT HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADD THE LIFT TO DEVELOP SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO...AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DELTA-T`S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE AROUND 16C. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF AROUND -22C MOVING INTO MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL SHOULD HANG IN THERE. DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AGAIN. THERE WILL BE ONLY A NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 900MB. ANY SNOW FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE...THE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY IN THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.P. ALLOWING COLD AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. A DELTA-T OF 22C WILL OCCUR OVER ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE A NORTH WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED MIZ006-007-085. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR AND LSZ245>248. && $$ AJ (UPDATE) DLG (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1030 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 .UPDATE...THE FIRST DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IN A LONG TIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING MINUS 12C AIR PER 12Z APX SOUNDING OVER +4 LAKE WATERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS BELOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 5KFT. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN LOCALLY INTENSE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY A DOMINATE BAND THAT RAN FROM ABOUT CHARLEVOIX TO GAYLORD DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND...VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE ABOUT 1.5 MILES. SEVERAL CALLS MADE TO SNOW SPOTTERS ACROSS THE AREA REVEALED LIGHT SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING COUNTIES...WITH WHITEFISH POINT ONLY REPORTING ABOUT 3 INCHES OVER THE LAST 12 HRS...WHILE PETOSKEY AND TRAVERSE CITY HAVE ALSO RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT. OBVIOUSLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY AS THE DOMINANT BAND HAS MIGRATED EAST OF INDIAN RIVER AND GAYLORD. STILL...LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO GET BETTER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 6KFT WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S TO AROUND 20C BY 00Z. WITH THE SLIGHT BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...SOME OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION MAY BE LOST. EVEN SO... PARAMETERS WILL BE PLENTY FAVORABLE ACROSS THE BIG FIVE (CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...KALKASKA...OTSEGO...CRAWFORD) TO ACCUMULATE 2-3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN UPPER TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF SINCE SNOW REPORTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MORE THAN THIS SO FAR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON GRAND TRAVERSE...LEELANAU...AND EMMET COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT HAS BEEN GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 33 TO 35 KNOTS. WITH 925 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY COMBINED WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE...HAVE HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FROM THE BRIDGE TO STURGEON POINT ZONES OUT SHORTLY. MPC PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 442 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007 ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...986 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC WITH 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. APX RADAR SHOWED RETURNS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. HELPING THE CAUSE WILL BE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY ONGOING AT THAT TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE DAY WEARS ON (MEAN 900-700 MB RH 55 PERCENT AT 12Z INCREASES TO 85 PERCENT BY 00Z WED). INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM A LITTLE UNDER 4K FEET TO ABOUT 5500 FEET TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO ABOUT 2500 FEET BY 12Z WED. WINDS REMAIN LOCKED IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS INCREASE FROM THE FAVORABLE UPPER TEENS TO THE VERY FAVORABLE LOWER 20S BY THIS EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. THE FACT THAT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY LOOKING PRETTY GOOD AND THAT MOISTURE/OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL GET EVEN BETTER AS WELL AS AN ADDED BOOST FROM THE SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR CHARLEVOIX... ANTRIM...OTSEGO...KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR CHIPPEWA AND LEELANAU COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES WHILE ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE TEENS. MARINE...950 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS JUST UNDER GALE FORCE SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO START THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WAA/DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD PUT THE KABASH ON ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT IN THE MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALL ZONES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FOCUS WAS ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT SO LITTLE TIME LEFT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND ALONG IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SULLIVAN && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ019-021-022-027-028 THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ008-020. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 410 PM CST TUE JAN 9 2007 .DISCUSSION... GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CNTRL KANSAS. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY...REACHING LOWS AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND WAA COMMENCES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS KEEPING TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS SUNRISE. AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY...STRONG SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EFFECTIVELY MIX UP TO 900 MB TAPPING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO CREATE GUSTY SFC WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AS SFC RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE GULF COAST...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND ABNORMALLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA HOWEVER...AS RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND 10 HOUR DEAD FUELS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY REPORTED NEAR 7-8 PERCENT. LEAD WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC LEE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE NRN FLOW INTO WRN CANADA BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER MUCH STRONGER WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE SW CONUS REINVIGORATING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT OVER ALASKA WILL DISLODGE A 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR...AND PROGRESS IT INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING ARCTIC FRONT POISED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 295-300K SFC WILL ACT TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL CHANCE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS QPF FIELDS LOOK FAR OVERDONE...HOWEVER THE NAM QPF FIELDS ARE QUESTIONABLY ABSENT DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM FORECAST MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE INITIAL COLUMN SATURATION DILEMMA WHERE THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF SUPPOSED PRECIP MERELY ACT TO SATURATED THE ATMOSPHERE. TRADITIONALLY...IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATION BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE VERY RAPIDLY. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTERY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECASTS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS SLOWED ITS QUICK PROGRESSION MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM...AND GIVEN THE HIGH VERTICAL RESOLUTION OF THE NAM MODEL...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THE NAM NEARLY STALLING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN THE SOURCE REGION OF ALASKA CURRENTLY ADVERTISES TEMPERATURES IN THE -30F TO -40F RANGE. HISTORICALLY...THESE TYPES OF AIRMASSES PLUNGE SOUTH FASTER THAN MODELS MAY SUGGEST...AND FAIL TO STALL AS FAR NORTH AS MODELS MAY SUGGEST. REGARDLESS...TRUE WINTER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BULK OF THE MORE MODERATE RAIN MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WARM SECTOR AS WINDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB FRONT ARE QUITE VEERED...AND MAY ACT TO LIMIT THE LIFT NORTH OF THE COLD SFC BOUNDARY. GFS ALSO HINTS AT DEEPER POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LIMITING FROZEN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. COVERED THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN BE ACHIEVED WITH REGARDS TO THE SFC FRONT LOCATION AND PRECIP PRODUCING MECHANISMS. BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO EJECT FROM THE DESERT SW LATE SATURDAY...AND COULD LEAD TO A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER. ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DEFORMATION BANDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. STILL A WAYS OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS HERE...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAR MORE CONDUSIVE FOR A HIGH IMPACT EVENT THAN THE EARLIER THURSDAY EVENT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE PAST THE WEEKEND EXPECT TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A MONTH. 21 && /425 AM CST TUE JAN 9 2007/ SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THERE ARE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONAL SITES WITH GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND EVEN A COUPLE ISOLATED SPOTS OVER 40KTS. PROFILERS AND VWPS IN THIS REGION SHOW 500 METER WINDS AROUND 40KTS...WITH RUC 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WAS TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 8 AM AS HIGHER 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. DID CONSIDER EXPANDING THE ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE BETTER LAPSE RATES FALL OFF QUICKLY BY 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO DETERMINE IF ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENT ARE NEEDED. OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING. DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS IN THE WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF IOWA. HOWEVER I KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE TEMPERATURE "ROLLER COASTER" THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE COLDER AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLDEST PUSH OF AIR EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL RESULT IS MUCH COOLER HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...GRIDDED HIGHS WILL HAVE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES. AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA CLAIMING INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...THERE COULD STILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS AND RH VALUES CLOSELY DURING SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. MODELS STILL AREN`T IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE GFS BEING QUICKER. I TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS AS ITS SOLUTION WAS SIMILAR TO THE 21Z SREF MEAN SOLUTION. ON THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES NICELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND I DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS A BIT. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME SO KEPT POPS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. THE FRONT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN. FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD I ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS AS THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA AND WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE I RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THESE NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE AS THE SREF OUTPUT INDICATES LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME ICY PRECIPITATION AS THE ARCTIC FRONT UNDERCUTS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WX GRIDS WAS TO ADD SOME SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SOME ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION MAY BE PRESENT. ALSO STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY OOZE SOUTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL ANY PRECIP WHICH FALLS AS RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE SREF WANTS TO KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE GREATER QPF ACROSS AREAS WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT ACCUMULATIONS. SAW && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ mo