FXUS62 KKEY 011345
AFDKEY

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE 
AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST. IN ADDITION...KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE DRY 
TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. C-MAN 
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S. ONLY ABOUT FOUR DEGREES OF WARMING 
IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO GENTLE EAST SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. 

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. 
CHRIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH TODAY. FOR 
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...PLEASE REFER 
TO THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS 
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST 
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY. THE 12Z KEY WEST SOUNDING HAD A FAULTY 
HYGRISTOR. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING IS TYPICALLY UNSTABLE...BUT VERY 
DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE 
JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD 
INCREASE TODAY. BE THAT AS IT MAY...PWAT VALUES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE 
TO JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH TODAY. DUE TO THE DRY AIR 
MASS IN PLACE...NO MORE THAN DIME POPS ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY. THE 
CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HANDLES THIS SITUATION 
WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. 

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ON FLORIDA BAY AND GULF 
WATERS TODAY. EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ON ATLANTIC 
WATERS TODAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT EYW-MTH-MIA. CUMULUS CLOUD BASES WILL 
RANGE FROM FL025 OVER THE OCEAN AND KEYS TO FL040 OVER THE 
EVERGLADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP 
QUICKLY AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS 
AFTERNOON...INITIATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY 
WEST OF THE PRIMARY EYW-MIA AIRWAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS THROUGH 24Z... 
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CELL 
MOVEMENT WILL BE ABOUT 090/18KT. FINALLY...THE SAHARAN HAZE LAYER 
HAS MOVED WEST OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND PILOT 
REPORTS INDICATE MUCH BETTER VISIBILITIES TODAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............KBK
DATA ACQUISITION.............MP