Fire Behavior Forecast for September 2008
Current Fire Behavior
For most of the season, fires have been primarily fuels driven with profuse spotting up to a mile ahead of the main fire at times. Reports indicate that fires are completely consuming 1000 hour fuels in the lower elevation areas with live fuels contributing towards fire spread. During the last week, winds have been a critical component in fire spread. Re-burn potential is high in islands of unburned or partially burned fuels. It is important to consider your local conditions and observed fire behavior when evaluating fire behavior potential.
Energy Release Component (ERC) values are at record highs in
the Northern Sierra,
The following table summarizes NFDRS outputs taken on September 2. The cells highlighted in red text indicate values exceeding
critical values for each PSA.
9/2/2008 |
Bay Area |
East side |
Mid Coast |
|
North Sierra |
North eastern |
North western |
|
1000 hr
Current |
10 |
6 |
8 |
16 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
100 hr
Current |
8 |
5 |
7 |
12 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
4 |
ERC
Current |
70 |
91 |
79 |
42 |
91 |
80 |
71 |
95 |
*Data based on FireFamilyPlus runs for Predictive Services Area using September 2, 2008 1400 weather observations and historic data from 1972.
Keep
informed on fire weather conditions and forecasts. Remember
to watch out when wind increases and/or changes direction.
8-4-08
MW