AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 431 AM MDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT... CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHERWISE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER EARLY THIS MORNING THAN EARLY MON MORNING. FOR EXAMPLE...WOLF CREEK PASS...MONARCH PASS...AND LA VETA PASS DOT SENSORS ARE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER AT 06Z/19 COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. 43F AT WOLF CREEK PASS AT 06Z/19 VS 28F LAST NIGHT AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...WARMING ALOFT IS OCCURRING AND VERIFYING MODEL TRENDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED FLATTING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WAS SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING TOWARDS OR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A NEARLY CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS. TODAY...LATEST DIGITAL FORECAST LOOKS WELL ON TARGET. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUD-FREE TODAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW CI/CS CLOUDS OR SHALLOW INSTABILITY CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MIXING...CURRENT TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGES LOOKS GOOD. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS DO START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK THE MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR JUST THE MOUNTAIN-VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN-PLAIN CIRCULATIONS TO FORM IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. NO THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. TONIGHT...PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVANCE ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED 90-110KT H25 JET STREAM MOVING OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. H65-H5 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS DURING THE NIGHT. MIDLEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS A GOOD DIRECTION FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE FORMATION...CROSS-BARRIER FLOW...FOR SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES...NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED EASTERN SAN JUANS...NORTHERN SANGRE DE CHRISTOS..AND WET MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH OF A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER AND NO CRITICAL LEVEL PER 00Z/19 WRF DATA. HOWEVER...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SEND SOME 40KT GUSTS DOWN OR THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE LEE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOUNTAIN RANGES. CHALLENGING MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS GIVEN INCREASING WINDS ALOFT... POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS. SHOULD SEE INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 6K-9K FT MSL ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP. PLACES LIKE PUEBLO IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CHALLENGE AND COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AROUND SUNRISE. IF WINDS PICKUP IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT COOL AS MUCH AS PREDICTED. NO THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. METZE .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH ARE POPS AND WINDS. LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY NOON THURSDAY AND THEN INTO WISCONSIN BY LATER FRIDAY. TRAILING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP FROM FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE PUSHING INTO IOWA BY LATER SUNDAY. SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE PLAYED UP THE POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING INITIAL SYSTEM AND THEN BUMPED UP POPS AGAIN MOST SECTIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO TRAILING SECOND SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO A DEFINITE CONCERN AND HAVE BEEFED UP THE WINDS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES. FINALLY IT APPEARS THAT SOME MEASURABLE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...THIS TIME POSSIBLY REACHING DOWN TO AROUND THE 7300 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COLDER TRAILING 2ND SYSTEM AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THIS IN GRIDS/ZONES. SLOWLY IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRACES THE REGION. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION/COLLABORATION. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 959 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .UPDATE... JUST ABOUT AS NICE OF A DAY AS YOU COULD WISH FOR TODAY...OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS THAT BECAME ALMOST...IF NOT...COMPLETELY OVERCAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH HIGHS WERE NEARLY 7 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS AVERAGE HIGH (LOWS) TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 76 TO 78 (56 TO 59) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S(HIGHS) AND MIDDLE TO LOWER 50S(LOWS) BYTHE END OF THE MONTH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH THERMAL TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE NORTHWEST DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...WITH CLOUDS REGULATED TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND BECOMING MORE RAGGED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ANDH850 TEMPS NEARING 1C AT THE OHIO RIVER AT 12Z AS PER THE LATEST RUC DATA. EVENING TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY DROPPED TO NEAR 60 FOR MOST SITES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE SDF AND LEX REGIONS...WITH MORE CLEARING AND BIGGER DROPS ACROSS THE BWG AND HNB EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NEARLY NO CLOUDS REMAIN AT THOSE SITES. ALSO NOTED THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT FALLEN AS FAST AS FORECAST...ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. SO DUE TO THE COMBO OF THE TWO (CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS) AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...MORE SO WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON LONGER SDF/LEX. NOT THINKING THAT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE AND SLIGHTLY MIXY CONDITIONS WITH 5 TO 10 MPH NW WINDS OUTSIDE OF STRONGLY SHELTERED AREAS. --SCHOTT && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... LARGE MASS OF COLD AIR STRATOCU HAS ROLLED SE INTO THE FCST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA HAVE GONE BKN WITH DECK AROUND 5KFT. FURTHER SOUTH FEW-SCT DECK CONTINUES AROUND 5 KFT AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN WITH MOST LOCALES REPORTING MID TO UPPER 60S. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL H5 TROF AXIS IS JUST WEST OF HERE NOW AND WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE TROF HEADS EAST WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER. IF WE CLEAR OUT...LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IF CLOUDS HANG IN...OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FOR TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH DEEP NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL ON WEDNESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER CU FIELD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE NE TO THE SW. TEMPS IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 WHILE AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S. -MJ LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING: TEMPERATURE TRENDS LIKE YDA ARE STILL THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM. COLDEST AIR IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARMING DURING THE NIGHT..IF YOU GO WI THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND GFS MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...WI LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL STILL GO WI LOWS NEAR 40 EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WITH USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES VARIOUS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPLEX SERIES OF RATHER VIGOROUS IMPULSES DROPPING DOWN IN THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTING ON THURSDAY WITH THE LAST OF THE SERIES EXITING THE REGION DURING THE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME WHEN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REBUILDS. WITH GULF MOISTURE LIKELY WITH THIS SERIES OF IMPULSES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WE COULD EASILY GET WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG STORMS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY: DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMP TRENDS AFTER RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO START THE LONG TERM SHOULD REBOUND TO NR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. --21 LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .UPDATE... EVENING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING 85H TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LAKE EFFECT SHRAS CONTINUING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS. LATE AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE U.P. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. MOST OF THE INLAND SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET BUT STILL GETTING A FEW -SHRAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE IN THE WEST. WITH COOL FLOW REMAINING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT FOR LONG DURATIONS...EVEN IN THE INTERIOR...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH. ONGOING FCST HAS SITUATION HANDLED VERY WELL WITH SHRAS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EAST. PATCHY FROST WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL UPDATE FCST TO CLEAN UP EVENING PRECIP WORDING AND TWEAK DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006... .SYNOPSIS... 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY...RIDGING BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT INTO THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS...AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXIST WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM INL REPORTING -21C 500MB TEMPERATURE AND -3C AT 850MB. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A LITTLE EXTRA INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE...HAS PRODUCED PLENTY OF BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THOSE AWAY FROM THE LAKES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...HOWEVER NEAR THE LAKES SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP 0.25 INCH BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. THE HEATING THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE HAS MANAGED TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...DESPITE SATURATED CONDITIONS ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH (THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT REMAINS AT 45 F AT THIS TIME). ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND 997MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE SE END OF JAMES BAY. EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW WAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AT THIS TIME. FARTHER TO THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR COVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH 30S F DEWPOINTS NOW ALL THE WAY S INTO KANSAS. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...IT WILL CAUSE BOTH THE RIDGE NEARING THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO BE PUSHED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS PROGGED TO BE QUITE SLOW... NOTED BY 500MB HEIGHTS ONLY RISING ABOUT 6 DAM BY 00Z THU. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROCESS...NORTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN THE -2 TO -3C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN THING DIFFERENT FROM TONIGHT COMPARED TO TODAY IS THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... CURRENTLY FROM THUNDER BAY TO IRONWOOD. WITH THIS MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF HERE...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS IT WAS TODAY AND THE INLAND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS IDEA IN THEIR QPF FIELDS BY SHOWING SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE LONGER FETCH AND HELP FROM LAND BREEZES...AND LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P.. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE...WHICH IS ALREADY NOTED BY THE MIXING THAT HAS HAPPENED TODAY. THIS CLEARING...ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS INLAND...MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FROST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. NO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE AREAS FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED HAVE ALREADY HAD A HARD FREEZE. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C AND SUNSHINE DISRUPTS THE LAKE EFFECT BANDING. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. ON LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND 10000 FT. WITH THESE LEVELS AND LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF 16-18C...THE CHANCE IS STILL WARRANTED. HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LEVELS AND DELTA-T\S BEGIN TO COME DOWN. LONG TERM...(WED NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR SOME EVENING LAKE CLOUDS FOR ERN COUNTIES...EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEAR FOR REST OF FCST AREA. INITIAL ONSHORE NW OVER ERN COUNTIES WILL BACK SW ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THERE BY OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SFC RDG AXIS OVERHEAD...EXPECT FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WED NIGHT OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS PER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FOLLOWED BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THU (UPR 50S TO AROUND 60F) GIVEN 8H TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 3-5C BY MIDDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED 12Z UKMET WHICH AGREES WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF INDICATING NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD GREAT LAKES BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SOLN SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF SFC LOW INTO ERN DAKOTAS AND WAS PREFERRED BY NCEP AS IT HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO UPR MI BY 12Z FRI. KEPT IN GOING CHC POPS LATE THU NIGHT FOR WRN 2/3RDS OF FCST AREA. BELIEVE INITIAL RDGG AND DRIER SERLY FLOW WILL DELAY ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO ERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 12Z PER UKMET QPF FIELDS. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....WITH DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV...295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GOOD 5H DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR FRI ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF LOW BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE GFS QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW EAST OF FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WEAKENING...THESE MODELS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH SYSTEM TO THE EAST. GIVEN CONTINUITY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF/UMKET SOLN AND WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS GOING FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED 00Z ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH IS MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND PREFERRED NCEP SOLN. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED MID-LVL TROF CONTINUING TO SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT AS IT LIFTS NE OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN. WILL KEEP IN HIGH CHC POPS FOR SAT GIVEN THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITH LOW NEARBY BUT THEN EXPECT SHRA TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SAT NIGHT AND END BY SUN IN LINE WITH GOING FCST AS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD ARGUE FOR A DRY FCST CONTINUING MON WITH MID LVL RDG BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A DRY FCST FOR TUE MAY BE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE 00Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA ...BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE OF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DECIDED TO KEEP TUE DRY FOR NOW AS RIDGING PERSISTS A BIT LONGER OVER THE WRN LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PREV DISCUSSION...AJ(SHORT TERM)/VOSS(LONG TERM) UPDATE...MZ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY...RIDGING BEGININNG TO MOVE OUT INTO THE U.S. AND CANADIAN PLAINS...AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXIST WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM INL REPORTING -21C 500MB TEMPERATURE AND -3C AT 850MB. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A LITTLE EXTRA INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE...HAS PRODUCED PLENTY OF BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THOSE AWAY FROM THE LAKES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...HOWEVER NEAR THE LAKES SOME PLACES SUCH AS THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP 0.25 INCH BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. THE HEATING THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE HAS MANAGED TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...DESPITE SATURATED CONDITIONS ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE MUCH (THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT REMAINS AT 45 F AT THIS TIME). ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND 997MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR THE SE END OF JAMES BAY. EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW WAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AT THIS TIME. FARTHER TO THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR COVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH 30S F DEWPOINTS NOW ALL THE WAY S INTO KANSAS. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...IT WILL CAUSE BOTH THE RIDGE NEARING THE PALINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO BE PUSHED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS PROGGED TO BE QUITE SLOW... NOTED BY 500MB HEIGHTS ONLY RISING ABOUT 6 DAM BY 00Z THU. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROCESS...NORTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING IN THE -2 TO -3C RANGE...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN THING DIFFERENT FROM TONIGHT COMPARED TO TODAY IS THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... CURRENTLY FROM THUNDER BAY TO IRONWOOD. WITH THIS MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF HERE...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE AS IT WAS TODAY AND THE INLAND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS IDEA IN THEIR QPF FIELDS BY SHOWING SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE LONGER FETCH AND HELP FROM LAND BREEZES...AND LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P.. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE...WHICH IS ALREADY NOTED BY THE MIXING THAT HAS HAPPENED TODAY. THIS CLEARING...ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS INLAND...MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE TO FREEZING TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FROST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. NO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED...THOUGH...BECAUSE THE AREAS FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED HAVE ALREADY HAD A HARD FREEZE. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C AND SUNSHINE DISRUPTS THE LAKE EFFECT BANDING. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. ON LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND 10000 FT. WITH THESE LEVELS AND LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF 16-18C...THE CHANCE IS STILL WARRANTED. HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LEVELS AND DELTA-T\S BEGIN TO COME DOWN. LONG TERM...(WED NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR SOME EVENING LAKE CLOUDS FOR ERN COUNTIES...EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEAR FOR REST OF FCST AREA. INITIAL ONSHORE NW OVER ERN COUNTIES WILL BACK SW ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THERE BY OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SFC RDG AXIS OVERHEAD...EXPECT FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WED NIGHT OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS PER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FOLLOWED BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THU (UPR 50S TO AORUND 60F) GIVEN 8H TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 3-5C BY MIDDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED 12Z UKMET WHICH AGREES WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF INDICATING NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD GREAT LAKES BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SOLN SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF SFC LOW INTO ERN DAKOTAS AND WAS PREFERRED BY NCEP AS IT HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV AND INCREASING 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO UPR MI BY 12Z FRI. KEPT IN GOING CHC POPS LATE THU NIGHT FOR WRN 2/3RDS OF FCST AREA. BELIEVE INITIAL RDGG AND DRIER SERLY FLOW WILL DELAY ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO ERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 12Z PER UKMET QPF FIELDS. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....WITH DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV...295-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GOOD 5H DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR FRI ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF LOW BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE GFS QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW EAST OF FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WEAKENING...THESE MODELS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH SYSTEM TO THE EAST. GIVEN CONTINUITY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF/UMKET SOLN AND WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS GOING FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED 00Z ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH IS MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND PREFERRED NCEP SOLN. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED MID-LVL TROF CONTINUING TO SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON SAT AS IT LIFTS NE OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN. WILL KEEP IN HIGH CHC POPS FOR SAT GIVEN THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITH LOW NEARBY BUT THEN EXPECT SHRA TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SAT NIGHT AND END BY SUN IN LINE WITH GOING FCST AS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD ARGUE FOR A DRY FCST CONTINUING MON WITH MID LVL RDG BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A DRY FCST FOR TUE MAY BE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE 00Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA ...BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE OF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DECIDED TO KEEP TUE DRY FOR NOW AS RIDGING PERSISTS A BIT LONGER OVER THE WRN LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ(SHORT TERM)/VOSS(LONG TERM) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .UPDATE...14Z SATELLITE/SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING MID LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...WIND SHIFT LINE/TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH MODERATE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (KGRB 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C PRODUCING LAKE SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T/S APPROACHING 17C) GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING BEST PLUME ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY IN EMMET COUNTY...WHICH COINCIDES WITH LONGEST WEST WIND FETCH OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON THE CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL. CAA ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO DROP TO -1C TO -2C BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE YET TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH 850MB-700MB RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 90 PERCENT. GIVEN ABOVE PARAMETERS...EXPECT LAKE MACHINE TO CONTINUE IN FAVORED REGIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND THE EASTERN UPPER WITH INDIVIDUAL BANDS GRADUALLY ORIENTING TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS WIND FIELD SLOWLY VEERS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS DIURNAL INFLUENCES ACT ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS SOUTH OF M-72 SHOW A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER INVERSION LEVEL THAT MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ALL IN ALL...ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE. MARINE...CURRENT SCA WILL STAY UP FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS AND FROM THE STRAITS TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL IN NORTHERN LAKE HURON. NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY STILL SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF 7 FT WITH WIND GUST TO 27 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS OVER WATER INSTABILITY INCREASES. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKES. 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS AND LAKE GENERATED CLOUD DEPTH OF 5000 FT PER 12Z KAPX SOUNDING SOMEWHAT MARGINALLY FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION. HOWEVER...ALL OTHER PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN NEARSHORE FORECAST. MSB .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IMPACTING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...AS ASSOCIATED FORCING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE/DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TODAY/TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXITING NORTHEAST LOWER...ATTACHED TO A 998MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BACK ACROSS MN/IA/WESTERN MO...WITH MAIN JET CORE (120+KT) OVERHEAD...500MB LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING INTO CENTRAL UPPER WITH SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND A FEW SHOWERS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER (ALSO EVIDENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY) LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN). 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN TO +4C WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS WI AND HITTING THE LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTING IN BROKEN-OVERCAST CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/ NORTHWEST LOWER...CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS NORTH/WEST OF A FKS-GOV-SLH LINE EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER SHORT WAVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS INCREASING UPSTREAM ACROSS WI/MN...ROTATING AROUND STACKED CIRCULATION ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LITTLE DOUBT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INTERACTING WITH OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND AIDED BY DIURNAL COMPONENT. SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT. BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF M-72...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOWER AND MID LEVELS A BIT DRIER (TQ INDEX ALONG M-55 CORRIDOR AOB +8...RAISING CONCERNS THAT CONVECTION MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY). AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT DROPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...JET STREAK DIVING ACROSS WI WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO AROUND -2C OVERNIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY THAT ISN'T COLD ENOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SNOW (SURFACE BASED LAPSE RATES TOO STEEP...MELTING VERY EFFICIENT AND QUICK). NEED SOMETHING CLOSER TO -5C OR BELOW UNTIL THE LAKES COOL OFF. WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW WEDNESDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT. THIS MAY END UP IN A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN AREA IS EASTERN UPPER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT STRONGER WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN MI WITH EACH RUN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE INVERSION POPPING UP AGAIN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN. THIS COULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. MARINE...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY UP ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL EXPAND IT THROUGH THE STRAITS AND OUT ALONG LHZ346 (STRAITS TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL). EXPECT STEADY WINDS AROUND 20KT THROUGH THE DAY...WAVE HEIGHTS OUT AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN BUOY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A CONSISTENT 7 FEET ALL NIGHT...WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 5 FOOT WAVES NEAR BEAVER ISLAND. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH SINKS ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA. MIXED LAYER WINDS STILL RUNNING 20-25KT...COASTAL CONVERGENCE COMES INTO PLAY ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS AREA AS WELL TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BACKING SOUTHWEST AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATERSPOUTS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TODAY IN PARTICULAR GIVEN VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW...DEEPER CBL...AND SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR UPDRAFTS/VORTICITY. JPB && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 906 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .UPDATE... STILL A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUD FORECAST OVERNIGHT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU OFF TO OUR N AND SOMEWHAT TRAPPED IN INVERSION. THERE HAS BEEN SLOW EROSION DURING THE EVENING. WITH FORECAST LOW LEVEL DIV BY RUC AND BUILDING RIDGE...FEEL THAT THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE OF SOME CLOUDS REMAINING AROUND WOULD BE IN CENTRAL MN AND MAYBE PART OF WI. WITH THE ALREADY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL MN AND WI HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006/ DISCUSSION... BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS INFLUENCE ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT FROST FORMATION. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...DROPPING WINDS TO NEAR CALM ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND GFS THAT THE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS CERTAINLY REINFORCED BY THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE CHANCES OF THE CLOUD DECK TOTALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT/. THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...SO WE SAW NO REASON TO CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY...AND IN FACT...WE ELECTED TO INCLUDE 3 MORE FAVORED COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE ADVISORY. AFTER A DRY DAY TOMORROW...ANOTHER DEEP SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE HOOKING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET /ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS/ AND ASSOCIATED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMUM WILL MOVE INTO FIRST THE SOUTHWEST...AND FINALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DURATION OF RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LENGTHY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CERTAINLY LAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BY TOMORROW BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH THE RAINY CONDITIONS. LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LONG TERM MODELS INITIALLY ARE BRINGING A DOUBLE BARREL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE OUTLIER OF THE THREE MODELS. ECMWF MODEL WAS FOLLOWED DURING THE PAST FEW FORECAST RUNS...HAVE NOT THROW OUT THE MODEL ENTIRETY. NOW THE LATEST GFS AND DGEX MODELS SEEM REASONABLE WITH OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER AIRFLOW DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE TRENDED DOWN MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF ROCKIES...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-ISANTI- KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE- SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES). WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON- CHIPPEWA-POLK-RUSK COUNTY(IES). && $$ KAT/JVM/JPR mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 849 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED MID WAY ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY TONIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE CRASHING INTO THE 50S IN THE FAR NW CWFA AND THE CLEARING SKY TREND IS ON THE DOORSTEP AS WELL. SOME MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED IN THE TIMING OF THESE FIELDS. WILL ALSO FINE TUNE THE ENDING OF LINGERING CONVECTION...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES CONTINUING FOR AN HOUR OR SO PAST MIDNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 244 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE RUC IS HANDLING THE PRECIP THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION AND LOOKING AT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT AND CONTINUE IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. INSTABILITY IS REALLY LACKING TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF RALEIGH HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF DYNAMICS AND LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING AFTER 5-6PM. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES NW AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THIS ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN NC. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL DESCEND FROM CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SETS UP ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND DROP SOUTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ALLOWING FOR A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD RESULT IN A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DRYING THINGS OUT FOR NEXT WEEK. AVIATION... SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH...HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF HEATING... FAYETTEVILLE MAY REMAIN DRY AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST. FRONT PASSES TONIGHT AND COLD AIR CUMULUS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CLEAR SKIES THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ONCE THE FRONT IS WELL EAST OF ONES LOCATION. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTINESS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MLM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 244 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE RUC IS HANDLING THE PRECIP THE BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION AND LOOKING AT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT AND CONTINUE IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NC...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. INSTABILITY IS REALLY LACKING TO SUPPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF RALEIGH HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF DYNAMICS AND LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING AFTER 5-6PM. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES NW AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THIS ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN NC. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL DESCEND FROM CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SETS UP ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND DROP SOUTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ALLOWING FOR A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A RETURN OF MOISTURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD RESULT IN A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST DRYING THINGS OUT FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH...HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF HEATING... FAYETTEVILLE MAY REMAIN DRY AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST. FRONT PASSES TONIGHT AND COLD AIR CUMULUS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CLEAR SKIES THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ONCE THE FRONT IS WELL EAST OF ONES LOCATION. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTINESS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JO LONG TERM...JO AVIATION...RLH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1222 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .UPDATE /THIS AFTERNOON/... A SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING INDICATED THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KBGM-KSEG-KFDK AND STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. HAVE BEEN STARING AT THE RADAR LOOPS ALL MORNING LONG AND THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REALLY FILLING IN MUCH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES ATTM AND THAT WILL CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT AND WHAT THE 06Z MODELS WERE SHOWING REALLY HAS NOT COME TOGETHER JUST YET, ALTHOUGH MANY WHERE POINTING TO AROUND 18Z ONWARD. SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL /SURFACE/ CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE. THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. A GLANCE AT THE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME ARE DRIER. THE RUC IS NOT TO EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WE WILL BANK ON A RIBBON OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND TREK ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF A BAND TRYING TO ORGANIZE AS OF THIS WRITING IN SOUTHEASTERN PA. ALSO, DID LOWER THE QPF SOME INTO THIS EVENING. NEEDED TO BUMP UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING FORECAST HIGHS. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. HAVE A GOOD ONE! && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GORSE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD EROSION AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ON NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW INVERSION AROUND 800MB GENERATING SOME SPRINKLES. RUC SOUNDING KEEP STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO THE EVENING PAST SUNSET...SO THESE MAY HANG ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. NEXT CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z WED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECOUPLE WEST OF MADISON. WITH TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT AND STRONGER SFC WINDS OVER THE EAST. ALSO CONCERNED THAT MOS MAY BE CLEARING SKIES A BIT TOO FAST IN THE EVENING...WITH A SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND A BROKEN DECK EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...IN CASE CLOUDS DO SCATTER OUT A BIT QUICKER. APPEARS CLOUDS ARE MORE CELLULAR OVER NORTHERN WI BEHIND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. FARTHER SOUTH PVA IS A BIT MORE STRUNG OUT WITH UPPER JET...ALONG WITH A MORE SOLID OVERCAST. SOME POTENTIAL OF FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EARLY. CLOUDS DEPEND ON SPEED OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS NAM/GFS. MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. STRONG ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THEN LINGER LATE FRIDAY...INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AGAIN MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS MID AND EXTENDED RANGE OF FORECAST WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. TENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HENTZ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 337 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TODAY AND THE TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW EMBEDDED IN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY...A WEAK RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST...A LOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL UTAH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL LOW MOISTURE REMAIN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL FEEDING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL EDGE INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC TODAY AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SWINGS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. ANOTHER DEEPER SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SAME LOW WILL SWEEP QUICKLY THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE IDAHO LOW WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN UTAH WHILE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TRY TO TRAVERSE THE RIDGE OVE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RIDGE EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WYOMING LOW WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...IT WILL BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING AND TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG INVERSION AT 800-850MB CAPS THE AIR MASS AND WILL PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY INDICATE THAT A LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND 850MB THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY ABOVE AND BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S AROUND 17C WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR WATER SPOUT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 6500 FT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LAKE REGION AS THE ASSOICATED HIGH BLANKETS EXPANDS TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE... THE COLORADO SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/NAM SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE THAT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WHILE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SWEEP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURE WARMING TO AROUND 60. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO...AS THE PLAINS LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INDICATE INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. GULF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THUS RAIN SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THUS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND START TO FOLLOW THE FIRST LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY DRAWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THUS WILL KEEP THE RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OKLAHOMA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED AND BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW RACES OFF THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ON SUN AND DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL SHOW SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 934 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THESE HAVE RESULTED IN NOT CHANGE TO THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT. HAVE WARMED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST BASED ON THE RUC MODEL AND FULL SUNSHINE. MORNING DEW POINTS ADJUSTED TO REALITY. A DIURNAL DROP NEAR 25 DEGREES IN THE WEST AND APPROACHING 30 IN THE EAST LOOKS GOOD GIVEN A CONSTANT BREEZE TONIGHT AND GREATER COLD ADVECTION LEFT TO OCCUR IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THURSDAY HIGHS ACCEPTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE FRONT HAS EXITED CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY HAS USHERED IN DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE TROUGH AXIS IN VICINITY. ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. ON FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND MAY EVEN PRODUCE PATCHES OF DRIZZLE. MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGIN FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROJECTED TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL WARRANT SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO AID FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF AREA ON MONDAY. MODEL PROJECTIONS MAY BE TOO FAST AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THUS...FRONT MAY ACTUALLY DRAG SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. DECENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY 15 KNOTS ATOP THE MIXING LAYER FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL OMIT GUSTINESS FROM TAFS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 339 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... PRECIP AND WINDS WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. 12Z MAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH A SMALL AREA OF -24 C COLD POOL AND 110 METER HEIGHT FALLS. THE WV LOOP HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH, AND IT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER ON EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS, AND WE SHOULD GET VERY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE STILL DOWN FAIRLY SOUTH OVER TX, BUT WE ARE ALREADY HAVE A NARROW TONGUE OF MID 50S, AND WITH THE DRYLINE RETREATING WE SHOULD GET MID TO UPPER 50S, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOMETHING STARTED IN OUR WEST. THE RUC HAS US GETTING DRYSLOTTED TONIGHT, BUT THINK THE NAM IS A BIT BETTER ON THIS WITH WINDS BACKING AND MOISTURE COMING BACK WEST. THINK THAT WE WILL GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWEST SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT OR AFTER TONIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE NOT AS GREAT, SOMEWHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG AT MOST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL EARLY, BUT THAT SHOULD END AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS MORNING, WITH RAIN AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TOMORROW AND AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT TO AROUND 990MB BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ALL HAVE STRONG WINDS AT 850MB, WITH 35 TO EVEN 60KTS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. THE GFS AND NAM ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS, BUT THE RUC HAS ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AND PTT IS ALREADY BLOWING. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TOMORROW THERE WILL BE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH CAA. BEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEST TOMORROW, BUT IN THE INTEREST OF BEING SIMPLE HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE CWA AND WILL BE SPECIFIC IN THE WORDING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MILD WITH PLENTY OF WIND ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP. TOMORROW WE SHOULD GET SOME COOLER TEMPS FILTERING IN AND THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTH MAY SEE SOME SUN DUE TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WENT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST, AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LOWER, AND LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THE NAM BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT THINK THAT THIS IS A BIT FAST, SO LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/UKMET AND KEPT ONLY LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. DAYS 3-7... FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE MAGNITUDE OF OUR SECOND STORM SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ~10N/140E WHILE EXTENDING FROM THE ARABIAN SEA TO THE SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS. ABOUT A WEEK AGO A CONSOLIDATION OF EASTWARD AND WESTWARD PROPAGATING EQUATORIALLY TRAPPED CONVECTIVELY COUPLED MODES OCCURRED AROUND 10-15N/120E. WE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING THE RAMIFICATIONS FROM THIS EVENT AS I TYPE. THE LATTER LED TO STRONGLY POLEWARD DIRECTED DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WHICH INTERACTED WITH A BAROCLINIC WAVE PACKET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ASIA. THE RESULT WAS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET (AT LEAST 20-30 M/S ANOMALIES) THAT SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFIED. THE PHASE WAS DETERMINED BY THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING INTERACTING OTHER DYNAMICAL PROCESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE EXTRATROPICS. CURRENTLY GSDM STAGE 1 BEST DESCRIBES THE GLOBAL CIRCULATION, WHICH INCREASES THE ODDS FOR TROUGHS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN USA. IN THE LONGER TERM (WEEKS 2-3), I SUSPECT THE TROPICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE WARM SSTS AROUND DATE LINE, LEADING TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF OUR CURRENT REGIME. I CAN ALREADY SEE EVIDENCE OF THIS FROM CURRENT FULL DISK SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALL OF THE ABOVE HAD LED TO THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PER THE NCEP GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AVAILABLE FROM THE ESRL/PSD WEB SITE, ANOMALIES ~5-6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MSLP FIELD ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SURFACE RESPONSE AS IT MOVES INTO MY CWA THURSDAY (VT 1200 UTC 9/21). I HAVE TO BELIEVE THIS NORMALIZATION IS DERIVED FROM THE 1971-2000 CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH WOULD REFLECT A TREND OF LESS FREQUENT INTENSE BAROCLINIC STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING "RECENT YEARS". IN ANY CASE, THERE IS OFTEN A SECOND STORM SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH IN THESE GSDM STAGE 1 SITUATIONS, AND SUCH IS TRUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH HUMANS AND MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM (WHICH IS TYPICAL), AND FORTUNATELY WE HAVE STARTED TO GET BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO (AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT). THERE IS THE GENERAL NOTION FOR THE SECOND TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EJECT TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST (WITHIN A NE-SW TILTED TROUGH; CONSISTENT WITH AAM TRANSPORT CONSIDERATIONS NOT DISCUSSED HERE). THE SURFACE RESPONSE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF MY CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE WELL TO MY SOUTHEAST, THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY REGION FORCED BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL SCALE DYNAMICS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LATTER WILL BE ACROSS MY NORTHERN CWA. I AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. I RAISED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY CWA WIDE AFTER 0600 UTC 9/23, STARTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING AND LEAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE EVENT. I WENT FOR MOSTLY A LIGHT RAIN SITUATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT, ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. I DID NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM EXISTING GRIDS. I DID LOWER MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS SOURCE IS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. AFTER SATURDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY (WITH NICE DOWNSLOPE FLOW). I THINK THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST LOW-MID 40S FOR MINIMUMS. I DID RAISE MAXES A FEW DEGREES TO WELL INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. MY THOUGHTS IS FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH MY CWA SOMETIME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF MY CWA AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING. I DID LOWER MAXIMUMS ON WEDNESDAY TO SUGGEST SOME COOLING. WITHOUT ELABORATING, I THINK THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN SHIFTING THE REGIME EASTWARD LEADING TO A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST, AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF WEEK 2. THIS IDEA SUPPORTS A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND DAYS 6-7 AND THE DAYS 8-10 PREDICTION WILL READ NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 56 72 50 72 / 70 50 20 0 GCK 56 69 47 69 / 60 70 20 10 EHA 55 74 45 71 / 50 30 10 10 LBL 57 75 48 73 / 50 30 10 0 HYS 56 68 48 69 / 80 80 30 10 P28 61 78 53 76 / 70 60 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-KSZ031-KSZ043-KSZ044-KSZ045- KSZ046-KSZ061-KSZ062-KSZ063-KSZ064-KSZ065-KSZ066-KSZ074-KSZ075- KSZ076-KSZ077-KSZ078-KSZ079-KSZ080-KSZ081-KSZ084-KSZ085-KSZ086- KSZ087-KSZ088-KSZ089-KSZ090. && $$ FN26/23 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1106 AM MDT WED SEP 20 2006 .DISCUSSION...JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS FEATURE. NAM AND RUC40 LOOK TO CATCH THIS THE BEST. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROGRESS. I AM THINKING NOT TOO MUCH MORE NORTH. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL KEEP AN UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA SHOULD WARM UP THE BEST. SO LOWERED MAXES NEAR 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF TO THIRD. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION BASED ON REALITY COMBINED WITH RUC AND NAM. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks