FXUS62 KEYW 072035
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
333 PM EST SUN MAR 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO 79 
AT KEY WEST...80 AT MARATHON. CLOUDS BRIEFLY BLOSSOMED AROUND NOON 
AND SHADED US OUT WHICH CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OUR HIGHS. OUR RADAR 
SHOWS JUST A FEW SPECKS OF RETURNS OUT IN THE WESTERN STRAITS.
&&

.FORECASTS...
NORTH WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN STRAITS AND ON 
THE ISLANDS FROM KEY WEST UP TO ABOUT MARATHON. THIS SHOWS THE 
WEAKENING OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH AS IT RETREATS BEFORE AN ADVANCING 
COOL FRONT. LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN STRAITS GRADUALLY WILL BECOME 
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS EVENING. 

THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WET WEATHER 
-- IN FACT WE ARE CARRYING ZERO POPS. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK OR 
ABSENT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AS THE NORTHERLIES SHALL 
HAVE ALREADY BRIDGED THE FRONT...AND STATIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN 
STRONG THANKS TO ANTICYCLONIC TENDENCIES ALOFT SHOWN BY VERY LOW 
VALUES OF IPV THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE NORTH WINDS AND BELOW-NORMAL 
TEMPS WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OUR 
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BRINGING MILDER READINGS AND 
INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES.    
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ARE PRETTY MUCH FLAT CALM AT MOLASSES 
AND LONG. NORTHERLIES TO 10 KNOTS ARE INDICATED FROM SOMBRERO KEY 
LIGHT OUT TO DRY TORTUGAS. WE HAVE HAD NO REPORTS TO CONFIRM THIS 
BUT THE QUANTITY OF RADIO CHATTER SUGGESTS PLENTY OF VESSEL TRAFFIC 
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BUT 
WINDS IN THE EASTERN STRAITS WILL COME AROUND INTO THE NORTH AS 
WELL. 

THE NORTHERLIES HERALD THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT. BY MONDAY SPEEDS 
SHOULD BE UP AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WE HAVE INDICATED SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THAT DAY. IF YOU ARE PLANNING 
A TRIP OR JUST HEADING OUT PLEASE CHECK THE FORECAST AND THE LATEST 
CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY SHELTERED GROUNDS WILL BE FOUND ON FLORIDA 
BAY AND INSIDE THE REEF ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE. THE GULF SIDE AND THE 
TORTUGAS AREA WILL BE MOST EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A LOW LEVEL WAVE PUSHING 
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE PENINSULA...DIMINISHING THE 
THICKER CU ALONG THE LAND PORTION OF THE KMIA-KEYW ROUTE. ALONG THE 
ISLANDS...RAGGED CU LINE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS WILL BE 
DISSIPATING IN AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT BRIEF CEILINGS AROUND 2 KFT AND 
JUST ABOVE 3 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STILL HAVE THE ONSET 
OF NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KT W/GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 12Z 
MONDAY.
&&

PRELIMINARY POINT FORECASTS:

EYW BB 068/073 059/069 070 13000
MTH BB 067/073 058/068 070 13000
&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

DFM/MR