AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 900 PM PDT THU AUG 4 2005 .UPDATE...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS DIED RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET. ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS PUSHED INTO NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THEY DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE KERN COUNTY LINE. TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS...BUT THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY SAW 4 DEGREES COOLING AT BOTH ARVIN AND BAKERSFIELD...THE LATTER HAVING REACHED ONLY 99 DEGREES AS OF 01Z. IF THE HIGH AT BAKERSFIELD HOLDS THROUGH 08Z...TODAY WILL BE ONLY THE SECOND DAY IN THE LAST 24 THAT BAKERSFIELD DID NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE 00Z NAM/NGM/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH AN ELONGATED CENTER THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA. THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING WRAP-AROUND MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE MID- LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHED FURTHER WEST TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY...AND WITH THE CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THE RIDGE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PIVOT...WITH THE EASTERN END DROPPING INTO ARIZONA. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO REACH THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA. 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND UKMET TO INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM RAISING THICKNESSES BY AS MUCH AS 60 METERS...AND THE UKMET BY HALF AS MUCH. THE 00Z NGM AND GFS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN THICKNESSES THROUGH 24 HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST 850-MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY 1-2 C ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WHILE THE NGM HAS LITTLE CHANGE AT 850 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 2-3 DEGREE WARMING FRIDAY...AND MOST FORECASTED HIGHS ARE IN LINE WITH THIS TREND. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE COOL AIR OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL MIX OUT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...LETTING THE NEXT CREW EXAMINE THE FULL SUITE OF NEW MODELS AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT TRENDS. .FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC40 ANALYSIS HAS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEAR RENO. WHILE MOST OF THE MONSOONAL WILL WRAP AROUND THE HIGH...AND AROUND THE CWFA...MOST MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN SIDES OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA/TEHACHAPI AND KERN DESERT AREAS. WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH CLOSER TO THE CWFA...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL SEE FURTHER WARMING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE WARMING TO A MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURE CHANGE MAY ONLY BE BY A DEG-F OR TWO. BEYOND THE HOT WEATHER...THE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN/DESERT CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DOUBLE FROM AROUND .50 INCHES TODAY TO AROUND 1.00 INCHES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF 700MB MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY ALSO SHOW 850-700MB THETA-E VALUES RISE TO AROUND 340K. THIS IS UP FROM NEAR 330K THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ALSO DOUBLE FROM 400J/KG TO +800J/KG ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. BY SATURDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT A CARBON COPY DAY ON SATURDAY FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL START PUSHING TOWARD THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BEGIN CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOURCE. WILL BEGIN LOWERING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY TO A SLIGHT CHANCE BEFORE TERMINATING THEM IN THE LONG TERM. .LONG TERM...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EAST. SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS CONTINUE AS TO WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DISPLACE OUR RIDGE, AND AT THIS TIME PREFER THE CANADIAN AND EURO SOLUTION OF MAINTAINING THE RIDGE TO SOME EXTENT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALONG WITH CONTINUED HOT WEATHER, THIS WILL SPELL SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SATURDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR DETAILS. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ SANGER/MOLINA/BURGER ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 200 PM PDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC40 ANALYSIS HAS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEAR RENO. WHILE MOST OF THE MONSOONAL WILL WRAP AROUND THE HIGH...AND AROUND THE CWFA...MOST MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN SIDES OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA/TEHACHAPI AND KERN DESERT AREAS. WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH CLOSER TO THE CWFA...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL SEE FURTHER WARMING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE WARMING TO A MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURE CHANGE MAY ONLY BE BY A DEG-F OR TWO. BEYOND THE HOT WEATHER...THE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN/DESERT CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DOUBLE FROM AROUND .50 INCHES TODAY TO AROUND 1.00 INCHES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF 700MB MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY ALSO SHOW 850-700MB THETA-E VALUES RISE TO AROUND 340K. THIS IS UP FROM NEAR 330K THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ALSO DOUBLE FROM 400J/KG TO +800J/KG ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. BY SATURDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT A CARBON COPY DAY ON SATURDAY FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL START PUSHING TOWARD THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BEGIN CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOURCE. WILL BEGIN LOWERING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY TO A SLIGHT CHANCE BEFORE TERMINATING THEM IN THE LONG TERM. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EAST. SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS CONTINUE AS TO WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DISPLACE OUR RIDGE, AND AT THIS TIME PREFER THE CANADIAN AND EURO SOLUTION OF MAINTAINING THE RIDGE TO SOME EXTENT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALONG WITH CONTINUED HOT WEATHER, THIS WILL SPELL SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SATURDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR DETAILS. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ MOLINA/BURGER ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 915 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC40 ANALYSIS IS SHOWING ANTICYCLONIC MOTION WELL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. AT THE PRESENT MOMENT... THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS MORE TOWARD WEST CENTRAL NEVADA...WHICH LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE CWFA. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR TODAY AT ISOLATED COVERAGE ...AT BEST...AND WAIT FOR FURTHER INCREASES IN MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW A DEEPER EASTERLY MEAN LAYER WIND FLOW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WITH LI/S NEAR ZERO AND CAPE VALUES RANGING NEAR 400J/KG...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEED THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR DETAILS. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ MOLINA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 215 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SYNOPSIS...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER OUR CWA WITH SOME ENERGY ALSO ROTATING ACROSS THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z TAE SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 2 INCHES...LI OF -6...CAPE OF 2600 J/KG...SE FLOW SURFACE TO 9K FT...THEN S-SW ALOFT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE BEING HELD DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS JUST A BIT MORE WEST...BUT ENERGY WILL STILL ROTATE OVER THE CWA...& WITH IN PLACE MOISTURE & INSTABILITY...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EXPECTED. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY SEES THE UPPER LOW WEAKEN A BIT & DRIFT A BIT FARTHER WEST. GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH S-SE FLOW INTO THE CWA. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL. SUNDAY CONTINUES THE SLOW WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LOW & SURFACE LOW. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN A BIT...BUT WITH 50% BEING CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS WHERE THINGS WILL HOLD. TEMPS MAY COME UP A BIT WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER NW FROM N FL...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SE U.S...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH. A FRONT OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL SAG SOME SOUTH...BUT STALL OVER THE TN VALLEY. SOUTH FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...WITH CLIMO POPS EXPECTED (AROUND 50% EACH DAY). THEN THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN WEAKENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS SE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS FORMS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...A TROUGH BACK TO N FL...& THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A BIT MORE EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WOULD BRING A SW-W WIND FLOW WEDNESDAY...W-NW FLOW THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY COULD INCREASE POPS OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK TO THE END. TEMPS MONDAY & TUESDAY WILL WARM...BUT THEN BACK TO NORMALS OR A BIT LOWER DUE TO INCREASING POP & CLOUDS. && .MARINE...WHILE WIND DIRECTION APPEARS TO BE PRETTY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .AVIATION....FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES THAT WILL MATCH UP BETTER WITH WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE PRESENT TIME ON AREA RADARS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT ISSUANCE FOR VLD...TLH AND PFN TO COVER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY AVOIDED THE TERMINALS...BUT IS SO CLOSE WOULD PREFER TO HAVE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF VCTS. AT ABY AND DHN HAVE HELD OFF ON TEMPOS AT ISSUANCE PER RADAR TRENDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO WITH DENSE FOG AT SOME SITES BECAUSE I AM CONCERNED WE MAY SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKE THIS MORNING AND THIS WOULD PREVENT GOOD DENSE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...DID TAKE SITES DOWN TO 3SM WITH ONLY VLD GOING DOWN TO 2SM PER GFS GUIDANCE. FOR TOMORROW...WHAT FOG WE WILL HAVE LIFTS AND SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR DAY TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. WENT WITH VCTS AT 15Z ALL TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 71 88 72 88/ 40 60 40 60 PANAMA CITY 73 87 74 87/ 40 70 40 70 DOTHAN 70 86 71 86/ 40 70 40 70 ALBANY 72 89 72 88/ 40 60 40 60 VALDOSTA 72 88 71 89/ 40 60 40 60 CROSS CITY 72 90 71 90/ 40 60 40 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ MCT/KGG TREXLER/GODSEY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 950 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005 .DISCUSSION... 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FROM FROM AROUND KDBQ TO NEAR LAMONI. MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER RUC HAS DIMINISHED. DRIER AIR TO NORTH FILTERING IN AND RUC MODEL SHOWING A DESTABILIZING SFC SOUTH OF OTTUMWA AFTER 18Z. HAVE TONED DOWN THE PCPN CHANCES ONLY SLIGHTLY WHILE LEAVING ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL IOWA. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME WEAK 0-2KM CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW HUNDRED ELEVATED J/KG TO WORK WITH. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RUSSELL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 806 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005 .UPDATE... MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING STILL SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS AND LATEST RUC MESO TOOLS SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THOUGH DOWNWARD TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. MAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. SOME TWEAKS NEEDED TO GRIDS/FORECAST, MAINLY FOR EVENING MESO/CONVECTIVE TRENDS, WHICH WILL BE BLENDED INTO LATE NIGHT FORECAST. DARMOFAL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005/ .DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. TONIGHT: COLD FRONT AS OF 19Z DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN BETWEEN SALINA AND WICHITA AND ONLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. SO FAR, CONVECTION RATHER ISOLATED AND RANDOM ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT AS A RESULT OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ON FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO CAP. ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION VISIBLE FROM NORTHWEST KS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAK TONIGHT, WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY, ALTHOUGH CONCERNED CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK, NEVERTHELESS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, COULD HAVE ONE OR TWO WET MICROBURSTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THIS IN CHECK. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN KANSAS, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KANSAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEREFORE SCALED BACK ON POPS. PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN LOWER-MID 80S LOOK VERY REASONABLE. SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW ATTEMPTING TO BECOME WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ETA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT. HOPEFULLY, LATER MODEL RUNS WILL SHED MORE LIGHT ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. VERY GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT WEEKEND PER LATEST FORECAST. MONDAY-THURSDAY: MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA, AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES, ESPECIALLY THE GFS. AS A RESULT, DO NOT REALLY HAVE A MODEL FAVORITE TODAY. THEREFORE, PROBABLY BEST TO NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. CARUSO && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DARMOFAL/CARUSO ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2005 .DISCUSSION... 15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAKER BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WV IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN US. AT THE SURFACE..COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED THE ENTIRE CWA AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...ALTHOUGH ETA WAS GENERALLY WORSE FOR H700 AND UP...AND THE GFS STRUGGLED WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE WEST. OVERALL THOUGH ERRORS WERE MINOR. FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND HOW COOL IT WILL GET. WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR LIFT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORT WAVE SHEARS OUT AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA. SFC HEATING HAS HELPED A FEW STORMS FIRE OFF BEHIND THE ABOUT THE ONLY REMAINING FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER DEEP (SFC-700MB) AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE STRONGEST TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE WEST. BASED ON COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DONT FEEL REAL CONFIDENT WITH POPS AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND WILL ONLY RUN SOME 20-30 POPS TILL 06Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND RATHER SMALL T/TD SPREADS TO BEGIN WITH HAS ME A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BL PROGS ON THE MODELS NOT REALLY SUGGESTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...BUT IF WE GET ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IT WOULD BE ABLE TO FOG IN EASILY SO WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUGH CALL AS IT WILL REALLY HINGE ON CLOUD COVER. THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW CLEAR SPOTS SO DIPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE AT MOST SITES...SIMILAR TO OBSERVED LOWS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA FROM LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS SFC HIGH PUSHES SOUTH AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK...WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A STORM OR TWO...BUT WILL ONLY KEEP POPS IN THE 20 RANGE. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD AS CWA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN SFC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SFC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING AS NO STRONG SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS ON. IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN QUITE A DISAGREEMENT WITH THE H500 FLOW. 00Z GFS/UKMET MUCH MORE ZONAL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...WHILE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED. 06Z GFS MUCH DIFFERENT THEN 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN...AND LOOKS A LOT LIKE CANADIAN. 00Z ENSEMBLES OF GFS FAVOR 00Z SOLUTION...BUT A FEW MEMBERS TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A LOT OF ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...SO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WILL BE THE BEST TEMPLATE TO FOLLOW FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR WX...EVEN SIDING TOTALLY WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED 06Z GFS WHICH PLACES CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH NUMEROUS WEAK SHORT WAVES SLIDING ACROSS...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOOKS VERY SMALL ATTM. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW INDICATE A VERY STOUT CAP IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...AND WILL WAIT FOR A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEFORE TRYING TO ADD ANY POPS. FOR TEMPS...DIDNT SEE THE NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AND INTRUSION OF WEAK FRONTS DECIDED TO KEEP NUMBERS A BIT BELOW 00Z GUIDANCE FOR ALL PERIODS EXCEPT THURSDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JRM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 950 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2005 .UPDATE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TRI STATE REGION...SO HAVE CHANGED THE OUTLOOK FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOWERS FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AROUND 650MB...SO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...CLEARING OUT BY LATE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS VERY MINIMAL ALOFT...SO ONLY ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS SHOULD FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. PATCHY FOG FORMED AROUND GOODLAND...APPEARING LINKED TO STRONGER INVERSION EVIDENCED BY ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION ON RADAR COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND DRIZZLE. THE FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE NEXT ZONE UPDATE. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK...AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW A WARM UP TO NEAR 70 WEST AND 75 EAST. IF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS TOO THICK...HOWEVER...MID 60S FOR HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2005) DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION... ..HOW COOL DOES IT GET TODAY...AND HOW FAST DOES IT WARM BACK UP. SATELLITE SHOWING ACTIVE NORTHERN ENERGY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE AND INCOMING FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN WEAK FLOW TO OUR WEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR 30 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT JET LEVEL...GFS DID A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. AT MID LEVELS...THE RUC IS CATCHING THE SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION. TAIL END OF THOSE DYNAMICS ARE HANGING BACK OVER THE AREA. OF THE OTHER MODELS THE GFS IS OVERALL DOING BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF. HOWEVER THERE ARE PROBLEM AREA. MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE SHARP ENOUGH OR WEST ENOUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO...THE UKMET/ECMWF HAVE THE STRENGTH OF WAVE OVER IDAHO THE BEST. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HAS THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTER OVER KANSAS THE BEST...IT HAS THE RIDGE TO BROAD ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE ECMWF/UKMET CAPTURE THIS THE BEST. AT LOW LEVELS...HARD TO TELL WHERE FRONT IS WITH OUTFLOW. HOWEVER... THE UKMET/NAM LOOK TO BE DOING THE BEST. NAM SEEMS TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH UPSLOPE COMPONENT THOUGH. UKMET LOOKED TO DO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODEL QPF PERFORMANCE NOT THAT GOOD. ALL MODELS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH QPF BASED ON REALITY. RUC40/RUC13 ARE DOING THE BEST AND ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THEIR DEPICTION OF THE QPF MATCHES WELL WITH THE FAVORED MODELS...UKMET/GFS...LIFT ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL USE A BLEND OF REALITY...RUC...GFS...AND UKMET. TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO UPSLOPE BEHIND FRONT. DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE WEST LATER ON. EARLY... COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE 700 MB SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. FOR TODAY...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS LOOK HAVE THE BEST LIFT AT ALL LEVELS WITH COLORADO THE BEST. LIFT AND HIGHER POPS SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST WITH CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON HAVING THE BEST SHOT EARLY. FOR MAXES...THE EASTERN AREAS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT EARLY WITH THE COLORADO COUNTIES NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL. WILL TIER THE TEMPERATURES IN THAT DIRECTION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT LOOK TO HAVE A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS GETTING CLOSE TO RECORDS. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS PUTTING IN LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BY AFTERNOON NAM HAS UPPER JET SOUTH OF AREA WITH THE GFS/UKMET PUTTING A WEAK JET OVER THE AREA WITH THE UKMET A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE MAXES WITH AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS PERIOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...AIR MASS DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLE WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY...AND WARM UP MAXES TO NEAR GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. $$ && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE/BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 300 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE PROSPECT FOR TSRA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES. FOREMOST AT THE PRESENT TIME IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. APPEARS ON RADAR THAT A KH/BORE HAS DEVELOPED, PROBABLY RIDING AN INVERSION. LOOKS LIKE THE "TRUE" FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHERE IN SW NE/NW KS. I THINK THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR EHA TO LARNED AND THEN THEN FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK (ALL THINGS CONSIDERED) BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BECOME GREAT ENOUGH TO FIRE TSRA. I'M FOLLOWING 03Z RUC PRETTY CLOSELY AS I THINK IT HAS THE RIGHT IDEA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY BUT WILL GRADIENT THEM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH HOT TEMPS CONTINUING IN THE FAR SE CWA. MANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE GENEROUS WITH QPF EARLY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND REALLY CANNOT ARGUE. MAX LIFT SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SOLAR INSULATION. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL WARM TEMPS QUICKLY. I DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. DAYS 3-7... LITTLE OR NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AND ON TRACK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 85 60 82 62 / 50 40 20 10 GCK 79 58 81 60 / 40 40 20 10 EHA 80 57 79 61 / 50 60 20 10 LBL 86 59 80 60 / 50 50 20 10 HYS 79 58 81 61 / 30 30 10 10 P28 93 64 84 64 / 50 50 20 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/12 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 920 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005 .DISCUSSION... WILL BE MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST TO ADD CHANCE POP WORDING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND BUMP UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IT APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AS BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SINCE 01Z. QPF FROM 00Z RUC AND EARLIER RUNS OF GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. 00Z NAM STILL HAS NO IDEA THAT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MO...BUT IT DOES HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 315K SURFACE...ALBEIT WEAK...AIDING MID LEVEL CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB PROGS ALSO SHOW/FORECAST TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SD. AS THIS PART OF THE SHORTWAVE PRESSES SOUTHEAST IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A REGION OF WEAK ASCENT. MJ/SF && .PREV DISCUSSION... 200 PM... CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR BUTLER TO SEDALIA WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IRK TO MKC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK. CENTER OF THE UPR RIDGE WAS PARKED OVER THE CWA AS SEEN BY MOISTURE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THIS LIKELY INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER AREA OF SCT SHOWERS WAS IN ERN AND SRN NEBRASKA. H7 MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE PROFILER NETWORK IN SC/SWRN NEB. VERTICAL MOTION MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN ELONGATED H3 JET STRETCHING FROM SD TO MINN. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SRN MO WITH THE WEAK NEB SHORTWAVE SHEARING EAST INTO IA. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H3 JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM NRN IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE AREA OF WEAK UVV MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE H7 MOIST BAND SAGS SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OR 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO ARK AND OKLA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE STABLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DB TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE A SLOW CLIMB INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. STOFLET && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 345 AM... THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS CAUSED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY. THIS CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL IN THE 80S. HOWEVER TEMPS MAY BE EVEN COOLER DEPENDING ON SCATTERED PRECIP AND NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPDATE. CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ALSO WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS EXTENSIVE AS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA. LIKEWISE THE NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SCATTERED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS CREATE MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE MORE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DIFFER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LINGERING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...PUSHING THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HELD ON TO LOW PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ONLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. NRR && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1040 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM...WILL WE HAVE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY CONVECTION? THAT EVENT FLEW UNDER THE RADAR SO TO SPEAK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS REALLY DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THE RUC40 DID INDICATE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND IS DOING SO AGAIN TODAY ALBEIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ILM/MHX SEA BREEZES AFT 18Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE BONE DRY AND THE GFS INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. ALL OF THE MOS POPS ARE STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL. ESTRN NC CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL US UPPER RIDGE AND WILL BE PRONE TO WEAK/ILL DEFINED PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE MODIFIED 12 MHX SOUNDING YIELDED A SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND LI'S NEAR -9 SIMILAR TO WED. THE NAM/GFS MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH 1500 CAPES AND -4 LI'S. RIGHT NOW I WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE AND CONTINUE TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THE RUC DEPICTION LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE SE AS AN INTRUSION OF DRIER 850 MB DEWPOINTS WAS INDICATED IN THIS MORNINGS UA DATA ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. THE SPC GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK IS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH HI VALUES AROUND 100. NO SIG CHANGES TO GRIDS PLANNED UNLESS CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD HAZE IS PRODUCING MVFR VSBY ACROSS THE AREA WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME SCT HIGH VFR CIRRUS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON ALTOCU. LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. && .MARINE...LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) N-NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED. RIP CURRENTS...LOW RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRI. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ JME/RAP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 921 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK S/WV AND ASSOCIATED LL JET PRODUCING AREA OF SHWRS MOVING INTO NW PA THIS EVENING...WHILE EARLIER ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PA HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVR THE GRT LKS...LINE OF CONVECTION W/SFC COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. ASSOCIATED POTENT S/WV APPROACHING WESTERN GRT LKS WILL PUSH COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA DURING FRIDAY. NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FCST OTHER THAN DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED AM POPS OVR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AND LOWERED PM POPS OVR THE NORTH. LATEST SREF DATA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS FRONT TRACKS FROM N TIER AT 12Z TO S TIER BY EVENING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 304 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... ANOTHER HAZY/HOT/HUMID DAY. ALREADY 90 OR ABOVE FROM STATE COLLEGE EAST AND SOUTHWARD AS OF 1PM. ETA12 SHOWS SMALL QPF POSSIBLE OVER FAR NW BETWEEN 21-00Z SO I LEFT THE 20 POP IN PLACE FOR A LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM. BUT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW SMALL SPECKS BEGINNING TO SHOW ON RADAR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. WHILE CAPE IS ABOUT 1/2 TO 1/3 YESTERDAY'S VALUES...RUC AND HIGH RES ETA STILL SHOW CAPES IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE. SO OF THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO BREAK THE LID...A STRONG PULSE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAYED WITH CHC POPS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOC WITH APPROACHING FRONT. AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO DROP INTO VERY HIGH HGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. BEST CYCLONIC SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. SO FRONT SHUD NOT BE A POTENT FEATURE AND JUST BE THE CAUSE FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES NWLY AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS SHUD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. DON'T EXPECT A REAL COOL PUSH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS CUD DROP TO CHILLY LEVELS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. 12Z ETA AND GFS BOTH SHOW NRN AREAS DRAPED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRECIP WATERS...SOME 1-3 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL...SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...SO SOME GOOD RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PROB DEVELOP. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY. TODAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS ABOUT MINUS 10 AT 500 MB...LI VALUES OF MINUS 4 TO 6...ESTIMATED VILS OF MID TO UPPER 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING NOW...AND MODELS LIKE THE NAM HINT AT ADDED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE...THUS THINK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. SINCE SHORT TERM GUY DID NOT CARRY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PAST FRIDAY EVENING...I TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SE PA OUT FOR SAT. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR SUNDAY...NOT LOOKING QUITE AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MREFS AND OTHER MODELS HINTED THAT MONDAY AFTERNOON WOOULD FEATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO I ADDED THEM TO FCST. LIKEWISE FOR TUE INTO THU...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH HPC GRIDS. AVIATION... A BIT MORE HAZE THAN YESTERDAY..BUT BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE 6MI OR GREATER AS OF MID DAY. A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT EXPECTED...TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE A GRADUAL DIURNAL REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY IN THIN FOG AND HAZE. ONLY COMPLICATOR TONIGHT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD AND ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THINKING IS THAT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE PROBLEM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 304 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... ANOTHER HAZY/HOT/HUMID DAY. ALREADY 90 OR ABOVE FROM STATE COLLEGE EAST AND SOUTHWARD AS OF 1PM. ETA12 SHOWS SMALL QPF POSSIBLE OVER FAR NW BETWEEN 21-00Z SO I LEFT THE 20 POP IN PLACE FOR A LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM. BUT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW SMALL SPECKS BEGINNING TO SHOW ON RADAR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. WHILE CAPE IS ABOUT 1/2 TO 1/3 YESTERDAY'S VALUES...RUC AND HIGH RES ETA STILL SHOW CAPES IN THE 1000-1500J RANGE. SO OF THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO BREAK THE LID...A STRONG PULSE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAYED WITH CHC POPS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOC WITH APPROACHING FRONT. AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO DROP INTO VERY HIGH HGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. BEST CYCLONIC SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. SO FRONT SHUD NOT BE A POTENT FEATURE AND JUST BE THE CAUSE FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES NWLY AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS SHUD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. DON'T EXPECT A REAL COOL PUSH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS CUD DROP TO CHILLY LEVELS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. 12Z ETA AND GFS BOTH SHOW NRN AREAS DRAPED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRECIP WATERS...SOME 1-3 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL...SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...SO SOME GOOD RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL PROB DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT I SAW YESTERDAY. TODAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS ABOUT MINUS 10 AT 500 MB...LI VALUES OF MINUS 4 TO 6...ESTIMATED VILS OF MID TO UPPER 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING NOW...AND MODELS LIKE THE NAM HINT AT ADDED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE...THUS THINK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY. SINCE SHORT TERM GUY DID NOT CARRY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PAST FRIDAY EVENING...I TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SE PA OUT FOR SAT. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR SUNDAY...NOT LOOKING QUITE AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MREFS AND OTHER MODELS HINTED THAT MONDAY AFTERNOON WOOULD FEATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO I ADDED THEM TO FCST. LIKEWISE FOR TUE INTO THU...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN LINE WITH HPC GRIDS. && .AVIATION... A BIT MORE HAZE THAN YESTERDAY..BUT BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE 6MI OR GREATER AS OF MID DAY. A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT EXPECTED...TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE A GRADUAL DIURNAL REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY IN THIN FOG AND HAZE. ONLY COMPLICATOR TONIGHT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD AND ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THINKING IS THAT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE PROBLEM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LACORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LACORTE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1054 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR LATE MORNING. 3H WEATHER FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER WELL CAPPED ATMOS. ETA12 SHOWS SMALL QPF POSSIBLE OVER FAR NW BETWEEN 21-00Z SO I LEFT THE 20 POP IN PLACE FOR A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...HIGH RES ETA AND RUC CREATING ONLY ABOUT A 1/3RD OF THE CAPE THAT WAS BEING GENERATED YESTERDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING HIGH AND DRY. LA CORTE && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 447 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... VERY WARM HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY BRINGING MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SUSQ VALLEY. DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 TODAY. WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F...WILL COVER TODAY/S HEAT WITH AN SPS. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...AND AN ISOLATED TSTORM MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BEFORE 00Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL BE TONIGHT AS FRONT BISECTS OUR CWA BY 12Z FRI. COOLER FRI WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A MORNING SHOWER. LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE SE FRI NIGHT...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS. MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK WHEN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RETURN. AVIATION... TRANQUIL CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND ASSOC MVFR CONDS...VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 14Z WITH JUST SOME SCT CU AND HI CIRRUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NW PA NEAR KBFD AFT 00Z. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 830 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 UPDATE ALRDY ISSUED...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EVE POPS. OTHR THAN A FEW CI...XPCT A CLR NITE AHEAD. ADDED PTCHY FOG TO GRIDS AS SOME OBS ALRDY SHOWING HZ...WHICH SHUD BECOME BR AS TMPS FALL TO NR DP TMPS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CWF. FCSTID = 44 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC TSTMS FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR EARLY TONIGHT AS RUC SHOWS SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS. CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTN ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2000-3500 J/KG. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL FAVOR THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE THE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MAV POPS...AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS GOOD WITH BOTH SFC FRONT AND SHTWV SUPPORT. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR FRI AGAIN IN THE 100-105 RANGE. HIGHEST VALUES ARE FOR SUFFOLK AND CHESAPEAKE...BUT BOTH TOP OUT ABOUT 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT (OVERNIGHT FRIDAY)...SO WE GET A SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE HEAT. FRONT ONCE AGAIN STALLS OUT AND WASHES OUT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. TEMPS ON FRI COOL OFF TO MID 80S TO LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LOW 70S. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND HAVE EITHER A SLT CHC OR CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... OCNL PDS OF MVFR (BR/HZ) AFT 02/03Z TNGT/ERY FRI...OTRW VFR THROUGH FRI MORNING. && .MARINE... SUBTROPICAL HI PRES ANCHORED OFFSHR THROUGH FRI...WK FNT SETTLES INTO RGN BY SAT...DISSIPATES SUN...W/ HI PRES RETURNING ERY NEXT WK. WNDS/SEAS/WVS BLO SCA UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM...09 AVIATION...25 MARINE...25 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 226 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC TSTMS FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR EARLY TONIGHT AS RUC SHOWS SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME ISOLATED STORMS. CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTN ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AND ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2000-3500 J/KG. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL FAVOR THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE THE POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MAV POPS...AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS GOOD WITH BOTH SFC FRONT AND SHTWV SUPPORT. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR FRI AGAIN IN THE 100-105 RANGE. HIGHEST VALUES ARE FOR SUFFOLK AND CHESAPEAKE...BUT BOTH TOP OUT ABOUT 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT (OVERNIGHT FRIDAY)...SO WE GET A SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE HEAT. FRONT ONCE AGAIN STALLS OUT AND WASHES OUT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. TEMPS ON FRI COOL OFF TO MID 80S TO LOW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LOW 70S. SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND HAVE EITHER A SLT CHC OR CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... OCNL PDS OF MVFR (BR/HZ) AFT 02/03Z TNGT/ERY FRI...OTRW VFR THROUGH FRI MORNING. && .MARINE... SUBTROPICAL HI PRES ANCHORED OFFSHR THROUGH FRI...WK FNT SETTLES INTO RGN BY SAT...DISSIPATES SUN...W/ HI PRES RETURNING ERY NEXT WK. WNDS/SEAS/WVS BLO SCA UFN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM...09 AVIATION...25 MARINE...25 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1007 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST EXPECTED. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SHOWS SOME PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. YESTERDAY RUC HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE ISOLATED TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...SO DECIDED TO ADD IT FOR THIS AFTN. CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1500-200 J/KG RANGE...BUT NO ORGANIZED LIFT MECHANISM. HOT TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE MAX TEMPS IN U90S EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN L70S WILL GIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105. EAST OF I-95 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER AND HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 EXPECTED. 09 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 909 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... PLAN TO UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE VA EASTERN SHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 750 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005) UPDATE...LATEST SATL SHOWING A FEW BANDS OF LOW STRATO CU ACRS SE VA/NE NC. FOG GNRLY NOT A PROBLEM EXCEPT ACRS PORTIONS OF VA ERN SHORE. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE FOG MENTION (EXCEPT IN VA ERN SHORE) AND TO ADD PSUNNY WORDING THIS MRNG IN SE VA/NE NC. ________________PREVIOUS AFD BELOW___________ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MSTR AXIS THAT WAS ALONG SE VA/NE NC YSDY HAS MIGRATED WESTWARD TODAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY. LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO SE/S BY AFTN. MAY SEE SOME ISO CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS...BUT THINK CHC TOO LOW THAT ANYTHING WOULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR PIEDMNT CNTYS. FOR TEMPS TODAY...LOW LVL THICKNSS VALUES INDICATE HIGHS MAINLY IN MID 90S...W/ A FEW UPR 90S IN THE USUALLY WARMER LOCATIONS. GNRLY UNDERCUT GDNC BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM PAST FEW DAYS AND AGAIN WILL NOT REALLY HAVE ANY DOWNSLOPNG TO BOOST TEMPS MUCH ABOVE THE MID/UPR 90S. STILL...WILL BE A HOT DAY ACRS THE AREA...BUT DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN UPR 60S/NEAR 70 BY AFTN ACRS AREAS WHERE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST (I-95 CORRIDOR). IN FAR SE VA/NE NC...DEW PTS LIKELY A LITTLE HIGHER BUT TEMPS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN LWR/MID 90S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY AROUND 100...W/ A FEW SPOTS PERHAPS REACHING CLOSE TO 105. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVSRY PRODUCTS. FRI...THINK SW FLOW/LOW LVL JET INFLUENCE ON FRI MAY HELP TRANSPORT IN SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVSRY FOR AREAS MAINLY E OF I-95 ON FRI. UPR TROF CURRENTLY OVER UPR MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SEWD...BRINGING ITS ASSOCAITED COLD FRONT CLOSER TO MID ATLC BY FRI AFTN. WLY FLOW ABOVE 900 MB WILL LIMIT MSTR SOMEWHAT...BUT DECENT CONV IN LOW LVLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCTD TSTMS ACRS NW CNTYS BY AFTN...TRACKING TO CNTRL VA/MD BY ERLY EVENG (BEST CHC FROM RIC TO WAL LINE NWD W/ ONLY SCHC IN NC/EXTREME SE VA). ON SAT...FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER VA...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC TSTMS ALL ZONES. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FCST. TROF FLATTENS ACRS NE CONUS AND WK RIDGING RETURNS TO SE STATES. STILL DECENT MSTR AROUND SO EXPECT DIURNAL ISO/SCTD PRECIP THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. AVIATION... PTCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORN. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBYS THRU SUNRISE WITH MNLY VFR EXPECTED BY MID MORN. MARINE... EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT EARLY BECOMING MORE S/SW BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN AHEAD LEESIDE TROF DEVELOPMENT. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS BUT INCRSG TO 10-15 KTS IN SPOTS THIS AFTN. S/SW WINDS CONT INTO FRI AHEAD SFC FRONT WITH GENERALLY 10 KTS IN THE BAY/SOUND...10-15 KTS CSTL WTRS. CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TODAY AT SBY IS 97 AND AT RIC IS 99. THERE IS A SLGT CHC THESE WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN BUT PROBABLY NOT. RIC HAS HAD 30 DAYS OF 90 F (OR HIGHER) TEMPS THIS YR...THIS IS ALREADY MORE THAN THE ENTIRE YEAR OF 2004 (24 DAYS) OR 2003 (28 DAYS). NORMAL FOR ENTIRE YEAR IS 42 DAYS AND MOST IS 70 DAYS IN 1977. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATE...BROWN SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/CLIMATE...BROWN AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 214 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE NAGGING SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON CHAOTIC UPPER AIR PATTERN AND HOW FAST DOES THE WARMUP OCCUR. SATELLITE SHOWING ACTIVE NORTHERN STORM TRACK INTO CANADA WITH BROAD RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB MOVING ALONG JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA HUGGING THE FRONT AND FRONT RANGE. AT JET LEVEL...GFS INITIALIZED BEST ON JET SEGMENT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. AT MID LEVELS...RUC/GFS/UKMET WERE CATCHING THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WELL. OVERALL THE GFS DID A LITTLE BETTER ON THE HEIGHTS OVER THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE GFS TENDED TO BE A TAD HIGH...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF A TAD LOW. THE ECMWF/UKMET DID A LITTLE BETTER ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS WAS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH. THE NAM/NGM WERE TOO HIGH ON THE HEIGHTS. ABOVE 700 MB THE NAM/GFS DID ABOUT THE SAME ON MOISTURE WHILE AT 700 MB THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER WITH GFS LOOKING TOO WET. AT LOW LEVELS...NAM/UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WINDS. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO WARM WITH THE GFS FAIRLY CLOSE AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE UKMET. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF REALITY/RUC/GFS EARLY THEN TREND TOWARD THE RUC13/UKMET LATER ON. TODAY/TONIGHT...SPOTTY/POPCORN SHOWERS COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE IN THIS AREA WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET THERE AS WELL. GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE 700 MB LIFT AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. THIS AREA SINKS SOUTH AND IS DONE BY 18Z. RUC13 WHICH DID WELL WITH PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY AND IS CATCHING THIS AREA OF PRECIPIATION. WILL HAVE SOME KIND OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL TWEEK AREA BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW LITTLE LIFT AS WELL AND WILL PRIMARILY COME FROM SHEARED OUT NORTHERN WAVE. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH MID LEVELS. STEERING FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE BUT WILL PULL IT BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST. MODELS KEPT CLOUD COVER AROUND TOO LONG OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY WHICH LED TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED MAXES. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...IT IS NOT GOING TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING. ALSO WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO A BIG WARMUP. THIS WOULD FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTH AND COOLER SOUTH. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE AN INTERESTING SITUATION SHAPING UP. LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH 700 MB BUT WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE IT. ALSO SHEARED OUT TROUGH BEGINS TO SETTLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT INDICATED AND FLOW ALOFT IS NONEXISTANT. WITH LACK OF FORCING AND WITH LIGHT FLOW/DRY AIR ALOFT...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. WILL HAVE SOUTH WINDS AND A LOT MORE SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND WILL GO CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ROUGHLY THE SAME SETUP AS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. GFS IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HPC INDICATING SOME AS WELL. GFS IS PULLING IN SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT THROUGH 700 MB INTO THIS AREA. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS... MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB IS BARELY ADEQUATE. WHEN YOU COMPARE THE GFS TO THE OTHER MODELS...IT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. UKMET HAS DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH. PLUS ORIENTATION OF UPPER RIDGE AND FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE. BASED ON THAT AND NEIGHBORS NOT BITING ON THIS AS WELL...WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. HOWEVER...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY. A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IN AFTERNOON. LIKE THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BETTER FOR THIS DAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 417 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUSES ON TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP WX DRY. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 5H RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WHICH NOSES INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF UPR GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING AS RDGG AND DNVA FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEM TO WASH OUT NORTH AND WEST OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PREVAILS AND KEEPS FCST AREA CAPPED AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA 2M TEMPS FOR THE HIGH TEMP FCST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS FOR AMS/TEMPS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. 8H TEMPS ARE 10-11C OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY RISING TO 13-15C ON SAT AND 16-18C ON SUN. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS TO REACH THE MID-UPR 70S TODAY...LOW TO MID 80S SUN AND MID TO UPR 80S ON SUN. MOS MIN TEMPS LOOKED GOOD SO GENERALLY ROLLED WITH THEM...TWEAKING SLIGHTLY UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH A DECENT SW GRAD FLOW DEVELOPING. KEPT IN GOING CHC OF TSRA ON MON AS MODELS HAVE SFC BNDRY AND 8H THETA-RDG MOVING OVER THE REGION. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 352 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN THUMB COUNTIES AS SEEN IN SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND AS PER AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SEEMINGLY INDUCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHERWISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SEEN VIA GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND OVERHEAD TONIGHT. 500 MB WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TODAY...BUT IN LIGHT OF GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE IN EVIDENCE TODAY...THOUGH MORE IN WAY OF A PARTIAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE PEELING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWER MOISTURE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING EITHER. SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING AS DECENT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ALSO...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...RELATED TO WEAK DIURNAL TROUGHING OVER LAND...WELL DEPICTED BY RUC13...WHICH WILL BE USED FOR WINDS. DELTA T AND 950 MB WINDS TODAY ALSO WOULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NOT ANTICIPATED... SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AREA SHOW STRONG CAP ABOVE 5K FEET TODAY WHICH WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ADJUSTED VERY LITTLE...NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BY THIS WEEKEND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY WITH VERY NICE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB OF ALMOST 9 C/KM. SKIES WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 700MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PW'S CREEPING UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. WILL STICK WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WHILE WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE WE WILL SIT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. AT THE LEAST AM EXPECTING HUMIDITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS AGAIN. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY FORCING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THEREFORE A FASTER PASSAGE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THURS AND WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS SUPPORT THE FASTER TIMING. && .AVIATION... (ISSUED 101 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) THE SURFACE FRONT IS ANALYZED NEARLY TO THE OHIO BORDER AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO ELIMINATE PRECIP WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATOCU BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONSTITUTE A VFR CEILING FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DET AND DTW WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS. CLEAR CONDITIONS AROUND FNT AND MBS REFLECT THE ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH AND THE LESS HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER ACCOMPANYING IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG AS RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWS CLOSE BEHIND THE DRYING TREND. FRIDAY'S CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH A LIGHT NW SURFACE WIND AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED CU THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN GIVING WAY TO A NE FLOW OF MARINE AIR FROM LAKE HURON OVER MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNSET. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....KEK AVIATION...BT mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 351 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONTINUE TO WATCH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM SAINT JOSEPH TO TRENTON. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED OVER THE 850MB FRONT. MODELS PROG THE LIFT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA SOUTH UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY...A MUCH NICER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE READINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING ONTO THE OREGON COAST. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...PROG THE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND STALLING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE MAY BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE. HAVE LEFT POPS JUST BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...PENDING MORE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 920 PM THU... WILL BE MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST TO ADD CHANCE POP WORDING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND BUMP UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IT APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AS BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SINCE 01Z. QPF FROM 00Z RUC AND EARLIER RUNS OF GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. 00Z NAM STILL HAS NO IDEA THAT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MO...BUT IT DOES HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 315K SURFACE...ALBEIT WEAK...AIDING MID LEVEL CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB PROGS ALSO SHOW/FORECAST TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SD. AS THIS PART OF THE SHORTWAVE PRESSES SOUTHEAST IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A REGION OF WEAK ASCENT. MJ/SF 200 PM THU... CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR BUTLER TO SEDALIA WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IRK TO MKC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK. CENTER OF THE UPR RIDGE WAS PARKED OVER THE CWA AS SEEN BY MOISTURE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THIS LIKELY INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER AREA OF SCT SHOWERS WAS IN ERN AND SRN NEBRASKA. H7 MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE PROFILER NETWORK IN SC/SWRN NEB. VERTICAL MOTION MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN ELONGATED H3 JET STRETCHING FROM SD TO MINN. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SRN MO WITH THE WEAK NEB SHORTWAVE SHEARING EAST INTO IA. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H3 JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM NRN IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE AREA OF WEAK UVV MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE H7 MOIST BAND SAGS SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OR 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO ARK AND OKLA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE STABLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DB TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE A SLOW CLIMB INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. STOFLET && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 345 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005 CORRECTED LANGUAGE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH. .DISCUSSION... WHAT A DRAMATIC CHANGE OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO PAST 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE FRONT HAS INVADED THE ERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. PROVES DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN TRUE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION. PREFRONTAL SURGE MAY BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CARLSBAD REGION...HOWEVER 800-700MB CHART INDICATES BEST CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF CLOVIS TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH MVFR CLOUD DECK. DEEP EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAKING THE BEST THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE NAM. HAVE GUIDED GRIDS WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND KEEPING LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE. ACTIVITY STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES... HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD DRIFT PAST THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING CONCERN PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CLOUD COVER RATHER THICK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL SEVERELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 70S. POTENTIAL TO BUST MAX TEMPS RATHER GOOD AS VALUES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS. CURRENTLY HAVE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NE WITH COOLER VALUES IN THE E/C AND SE PLAINS. RUC80 DEPICTING TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS...ONE LOCATED IN CENTRAL UT AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE... WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ABSORBED BY WRN HIGH. WITH THIS IN MIND... UPSLOPE FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHERLY 500MB PATTERN SHOULD KEEP -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES ELEVATED ALONG ERN SLOPES OF SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EC/SE AND LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DIE. RECYCLING OF MOISTURE PERSISTS ON SAT WITH 500MB HIGH REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATING A DECENT SHORT WAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NE/EC ZONES BY AFTERNOON. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH POPS AND WILL GIVE IT THE NOD. INHERITED GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST SIGNIFICANTLY. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NRN ZONES BY SUNDAY...WHICH MAY REDUCE PCPN CHANCES TO ISOLATED IN NATURE. GFS/NAM BOTH HANGING ON TO SHORT WAVE OVER THE SE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. NOT SURE IF GFS80 IS RECEIVING FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON QPF. ANYWAY...BEST THREAT FOR PCPN FOR SUN/MON WILL BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NONETHELESS...RECYLING OF LINGERING JUICE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST. BOTH GFSLR/DGEX INDICATE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT INTO NRN NEW MEXICO BY TUES/WED WITH GFS FASTER WITH PROGRESSION. GFSLR VERY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE ATTM. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE PROGGED TO MAKE A SURGE NORTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER HIGH. APPEARS ARIZONA WOULD BE THE BIG WINNER...BUT AXIS MAY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 82 60 84 60 / 40 50 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 80 54 80 54 / 40 40 30 30 GRANTS.......................... 77 53 80 54 / 30 40 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 84 57 83 57 / 30 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 68 44 73 44 / 40 40 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 51 78 50 / 40 40 30 30 RED RIVER....................... 66 39 69 38 / 50 50 40 30 TAOS............................ 73 50 75 48 / 40 40 30 30 SANTA FE........................ 74 52 76 52 / 30 40 30 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 55 79 56 / 30 40 30 30 ESPANOLA........................ 78 56 81 55 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 82 62 83 64 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 59 84 60 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 60 82 61 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 61 83 63 / 30 30 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 83 62 84 63 / 30 30 20 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 54 76 56 / 40 40 30 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 49 80 51 / 40 40 30 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 79 56 82 58 / 30 40 30 30 RUIDOSO......................... 71 51 75 54 / 40 40 30 30 RATON........................... 72 52 79 51 / 40 40 40 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 72 51 76 51 / 40 40 40 30 ROY............................. 76 55 80 55 / 40 30 20 30 CLAYTON......................... 78 57 83 60 / 30 30 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 77 59 84 59 / 40 30 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 77 62 86 63 / 30 30 20 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 76 61 85 62 / 40 30 20 30 CLOVIS.......................... 75 62 84 63 / 50 30 20 30 PORTALES........................ 76 61 85 62 / 50 30 20 30 ROSWELL......................... 77 64 87 66 / 60 30 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 345 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION... WHAT A DRAMATIC CHANGE OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO PAST 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE FRONT HAS INVADED THE ERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. PROVES DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN TRUE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION. PREFRONTAL SURGE MAY BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CARLSBAD REGION...HOWEVER 800-700MB CHART INDICATES BEST CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF CLOVIS TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH MVFR CLOUD DECK. DEEP EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAKING THE BEST THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE NAM. HAVE GUIDED GRIDS WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND KEEPING LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE. ACTIVITY STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES... HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD DRIFT PAST THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING CONCERN PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CLOUD COVER RATHER THICK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL SEVERELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 70S. POTENTIAL TO BUST MAX TEMPS RATHER GOOD AS VALUES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS. CURRENTLY HAVE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NE WITH COOLER VALUES IN THE E/C AND SE PLAINS. RUC80 DEPICTING TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS...ONE LOCATED IN CENTRAL UT AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE... WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ABSORBED BY WRN HIGH. WITH THIS IN MIND... UPSLOPE FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHERLY 500MB PATTERN SHOULD KEEP -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES ELEVATED ALONG ERN SLOPES OF SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EC/SE AND LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DIE. RECYCLING OF MOISTURE PERSISTS ON SAT WITH 500MB HIGH REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATING A DECENT SHORT WAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NE/EC ZONES BY AFTERNOON. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH POPS AND WILL GIVE IT THE NOD. INHERITED GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST SIGNIFICANTLY. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NRN ZONES BY SUNDAY...WHICH MAY REDUCE PCPN CHANCES TO ISOLATED IN NATURE. GFS/NAM BOTH HANGING ON TO SHORT WAVE OVER THE SE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY. NOT SURE IF GFS80 IS RECEIVING FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON QPF. ANYWAY...BEST THREAT FOR PCPN FOR SUNDAY WILL BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NONETHELESS...RECYLING OF LINGERING JUICE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST. BOTH GFSLR/DGEX INDICATE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT INTO NRN NEW MEXICO BY TUES/WED WITH GFS FASTER WITH PROGRESSION. GFSLR VERY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE ATTM. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE PROGGED TO MAKE A SURGE NORTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER HIGH. APPEARS ARIZONA WOULD BE THE BIG WINNER...BUT AXIS MAY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 82 60 84 60 / 40 50 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 80 54 80 54 / 40 40 30 30 GRANTS.......................... 77 53 80 54 / 30 40 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 84 57 83 57 / 30 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 68 44 73 44 / 40 40 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 51 78 50 / 40 40 30 30 RED RIVER....................... 66 39 69 38 / 50 50 40 30 TAOS............................ 73 50 75 48 / 40 40 30 30 SANTA FE........................ 74 52 76 52 / 30 40 30 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 55 79 56 / 30 40 30 30 ESPANOLA........................ 78 56 81 55 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 82 62 83 64 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 59 84 60 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 60 82 61 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 61 83 63 / 30 30 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 83 62 84 63 / 30 30 20 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 54 76 56 / 40 40 30 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 49 80 51 / 40 40 30 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 79 56 82 58 / 30 40 30 30 RUIDOSO......................... 71 51 75 54 / 40 40 30 30 RATON........................... 72 52 79 51 / 40 40 40 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 72 51 76 51 / 40 40 40 30 ROY............................. 76 55 80 55 / 40 30 20 30 CLAYTON......................... 78 57 83 60 / 30 30 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 77 59 84 59 / 40 30 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 77 62 86 63 / 30 30 20 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 76 61 85 62 / 40 30 20 30 CLOVIS.......................... 75 62 84 63 / 50 30 20 30 PORTALES........................ 76 61 85 62 / 50 30 20 30 ROSWELL......................... 77 64 87 66 / 60 30 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1005 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD SFC HIGH OVER SE NE. QUITE DRY AIR FILTERING INTO NW IA...WITH AREA OF SFC DEW POINTS IN LOW 50/LOW 40S OVER SE MN AND NEARLY 40 DEG DEW PINT DEPRESSION NEAR 700 MB ON LAPS SOUNDINGS OVER NORTH. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER STATE WILL SEE LIGHT NRLY WINDS AND TEMP ADVECTION NIL. CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER SW MAY HANG ON THROUGH MORNING. RUC PROGS DRY OUT THE 500-300MB RH LAYER OVER THESE AREAS BY 21Z AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TO FOLLOW THIS TREND. MADE SOME UPWARD GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR DEW POINTS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RUSSELL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 556 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO ABOUT TO COME OUT TO ADD POPS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE THE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IN THIS AREA PLUS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET OVER NEBRASKA. ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING THIS IS THE RUC40 WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/QPF CORRESPONDING EXACTLY TO THIS AREA. JUST GOT A COOP REPORT OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN LOGAN COUNTY. RADAR IS CLOSE ON THIS AMOUNT. WEAKER SHOWER COVERAGE MOVING INTO YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHEAR OUT SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1145 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... TEMPERATURES RAISED A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN LATEST SOUNDING INFORMATION AND EXPECTED WIND FLOW. POPS NOT CHANGED AT THE MOMENT. WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PUTS PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHING CT RIVER VALLEY AT 15Z...SURFACE HEAT AXIS IJD TO BOS AND HIGHEST MOISTURE POOLING PVD TO BOS. BOTH RUC AND 12Z NAM INDICATE FORECAST SBCAPES AROUND/A LITTLE ABOVE 2000 J/KG RI AND SE MA...AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BELIEVE THIS MAY BE OUR MOST ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LACKING DEEP/SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...BUT THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ANTICIPATED IN THE LOWEST 5 OR 6 KM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SE OF BOS-PVD LINE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS QUITE HIGH...LOWER 90S. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE DEEP CONVECTION BEGIN TO INITIATE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM EDT CENTRAL/WESTERN SECTIONS...AND THEN SHIFTING E BY 3 PM WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS FORMING S AND E OF ORH. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM COLLAPSING HIGH CORES POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ON THE COASTAL WATERS...NOTE ABOUT A 3 FOOT SWELL MOST BUOYS...PROBABLY GENERATED FROM HARVEY FAR OFFSHORE. MONITORING ANY RIP CURRENT RISK...BUT NOT OVERLY CONCERNED UNLESS SEE THE SWELL AMPLITUDE GROW TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE GRADIENT PICKS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ITS EFFECTS. AT PRESS TIME...THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRINGING THE FRONT TO A MERRIMACK VALLEY-HARTFORD LINE BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE CANAL BY SUNSET AND SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AFTER 06Z. LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST AROUND -3 BY THE GFS AND NAM. CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 1000-2000 J RANGE GENERALLY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST AROUND 1.75 (NAM) TO 2.00 (GFS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AT 850 MB INCREASE TO 25 KTS...ALTHOUGH AT 500 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH 25 KTS (35+ KTS WOULD BE BETTER). FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE STRATUS GOES AWAY THE SUNSHINE SHOULD WORK ON A WARM AIRMASS...FORECAST TEMPS OF 17- 19C AT 850 MB AND 13- 14C AT 800 MB...TO GET MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AWAY FROM THE OCEAN. THIS ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE OUR MAIN MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER? WINDS ALOFT COULD BE ORGANIZED A LOT BETTER. ON THE OTHER HAND...PER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER FEEDING INTO THESE STORMS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER. AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW HIGH UP WILL BE IN NO RUSH TO VENTILATE THE MOISTURE "IN THE PIPE". SO WE MAY ONCE AGAIN BE TREATED TO PULSE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MORE CONFIDENT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. BOTH MODELS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS ALOFT MOVING IN TONIGHT AND IN PLACE BY MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST MOST SPOTS...BUT WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA WITH HIGHS OVER BERMUDA AND NATIONS SW. PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF ALTERING LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN HIGH OVER SW MOVES E THURSDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON WEST COAST. NOT MUCH IN SENSIBLE WEATHER...IF ANY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COMPLIMENTS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT MAKES IT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WHERE IT THEN LINGERS AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND UKMET. EXACT PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. GFS SHOWS A STRONG VORT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT. UKMET HINTS AT THIS VORTICITY AS WELL. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ONLY SHOW LOW LEVEL. BUT GIVEN GFS SOLUTION PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTH COAST AND CT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR EARLY SUNDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. REGION THEN BECOMES SITUATED UNDER RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALOFT...KINKS IN THE UPPER PATTERN BRING CAUSE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... IFR AND MVFR CLOUDS IN STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BREAK TO VFR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. LOWER CLOUDS AND VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NIGHT...THEN CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE... AS THE WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 5 FEET LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THESE SEAS. BENIGN WEATHER AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. && $$ NEAR TERM DAY SHIFT...MCJ/THOMPSON SHORT TERM MID SHIFT...WTB LONG TERM MID SHIFT...KAB ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .UPDATE... TRANQUIL AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH (1025MB) BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY OOZING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE LOW-MID CLOUD DECK SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. LATEST 1KM VISIBLE SHOWS POST-FRONTAL CI/CS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING 300MB JET. FURTHERMORE, SOME CU HAS FIRED UP AS WELL AS OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS NEAR 77F (OF WHICH MOST SITES ARE NEAR THIS POINT). LATEST TAMDAR DATA INTO DTW CONTINUES TO REVEAL PLENTY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND WITH ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR SEEN UPSTREAM PER THIS MORNING H2O VAPOR LOOP AND INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS CU SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED...EXPECT MORE OF A STEADY/SLOW RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEW LAMP AND FWC/MET GUIDANCE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO CURRENT GRIDS AND 12Z SOUNDING MAX TEMPS. SO A FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY. BGM && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SOLIDLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR 24 HOUR PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN...EXCEPT SOUTHERN SITES COULD GO BROKEN OPAQUE MID LAYER THIS MORNING. WAS THINKING OF MENTIONING LIGHT MIST VERY LATE TONIGHT BENEATH RIDGE...BUT NOT MUCH SEEN UNDER HIGH UPSTREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. SO...HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION THEREOF...WITH MAINLY JUST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE SUPPORT...LIKELY OVERDONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN THUMB COUNTIES AS SEEN IN SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND AS PER AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SEEMINGLY INDUCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHERWISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SEEN VIA GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND OVERHEAD TONIGHT. 500 MB WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TODAY...BUT IN LIGHT OF GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE IN EVIDENCE TODAY...THOUGH MORE IN WAY OF A PARTIAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE PEELING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWER MOISTURE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING EITHER. SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING AS DECENT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ALSO...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...RELATED TO WEAK DIURNAL TROUGHING OVER LAND...WELL DEPICTED BY RUC13...WHICH WILL BE USED FOR WINDS. DELTA T AND 950 MB WINDS TODAY ALSO WOULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NOT ANTICIPATED... SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AREA SHOW STRONG CAP ABOVE 5K FEET TODAY WHICH WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ADJUSTED VERY LITTLE...NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BY THIS WEEKEND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY WITH VERY NICE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB OF ALMOST 9 C/KM. SKIES WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 700MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PW'S CREEPING UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. WILL STICK WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WHILE WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE WE WILL SIT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. AT THE LEAST AM EXPECTING HUMIDITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS AGAIN. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY FORCING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THEREFORE A FASTER PASSAGE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THURS AND WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS SUPPORT THE FASTER TIMING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...DWD SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....KEK mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 746 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .AVIATION... SOLIDLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR 24 HOUR PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN...EXCEPT SOUTHERN SITES COULD GO BROKEN OPAQUE MID LAYER THIS MORNING. WAS THINKING OF MENTIONING LIGHT MIST VERY LATE TONIGHT BENEATH RIDGE...BUT NOT MUCH SEEN UNDER HIGH UPSTREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. SO...HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION THEREOF...WITH MAINLY JUST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE SUPPORT...LIKELY OVERDONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN THUMB COUNTIES AS SEEN IN SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND AS PER AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SEEMINGLY INDUCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHERWISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SEEN VIA GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND OVERHEAD TONIGHT. 500 MB WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TODAY...BUT IN LIGHT OF GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE IN EVIDENCE TODAY...THOUGH MORE IN WAY OF A PARTIAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE PEELING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWER MOISTURE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING EITHER. SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING AS DECENT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ALSO...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...RELATED TO WEAK DIURNAL TROUGHING OVER LAND...WELL DEPICTED BY RUC13...WHICH WILL BE USED FOR WINDS. DELTA T AND 950 MB WINDS TODAY ALSO WOULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NOT ANTICIPATED... SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AREA SHOW STRONG CAP ABOVE 5K FEET TODAY WHICH WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ADJUSTED VERY LITTLE...NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BY THIS WEEKEND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY WITH VERY NICE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB OF ALMOST 9 C/KM. SKIES WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 700MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PW'S CREEPING UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. WILL STICK WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WHILE WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE WE WILL SIT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. AT THE LEAST AM EXPECTING HUMIDITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS AGAIN. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY FORCING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THEREFORE A FASTER PASSAGE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THURS AND WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS SUPPORT THE FASTER TIMING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...DWD SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....KEK mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 910 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WEST INTO ERN KANSAS. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE TOO QUICK TO DROP THE 800-700MB MOIST AXIS SOUTH. THIS LAYER IS ALSO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS PER THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING. THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS FM NRN IA TO SWRN NEB APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AS PER LATEST PROFILERS AND MOISTURE IMAGERY. WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN AS PER LATEST TRENDS. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT PROJECTED THROUGH THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY. MAY HAVE TO CUT TEMPS MORE LATER THIS MORNING. DB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 351 AM... CONTINUE TO WATCH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM SAINT JOSEPH TO TRENTON. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED OVER THE 850MB FRONT. MODELS PROG THE LIFT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE IN FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA SOUTH UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY...A MUCH NICER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE READINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING ONTO THE OREGON COAST. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...PROG THE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND STALLING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE MAY BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE. HAVE LEFT POPS JUST BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...PENDING MORE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 920 PM THU... WILL BE MAKING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST TO ADD CHANCE POP WORDING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AND BUMP UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IT APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AS BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SINCE 01Z. QPF FROM 00Z RUC AND EARLIER RUNS OF GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. 00Z NAM STILL HAS NO IDEA THAT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MO...BUT IT DOES HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 315K SURFACE...ALBEIT WEAK...AIDING MID LEVEL CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB PROGS ALSO SHOW/FORECAST TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SD. AS THIS PART OF THE SHORTWAVE PRESSES SOUTHEAST IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A REGION OF WEAK ASCENT. MJ/SF 200 PM THU... CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST SFC MAP INDICATES A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR BUTLER TO SEDALIA WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IRK TO MKC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK. CENTER OF THE UPR RIDGE WAS PARKED OVER THE CWA AS SEEN BY MOISTURE IMAGERY AND PROFILERS. THIS LIKELY INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING...THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER AREA OF SCT SHOWERS WAS IN ERN AND SRN NEBRASKA. H7 MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE PROFILER NETWORK IN SC/SWRN NEB. VERTICAL MOTION MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN ELONGATED H3 JET STRETCHING FROM SD TO MINN. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SRN MO WITH THE WEAK NEB SHORTWAVE SHEARING EAST INTO IA. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H3 JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM NRN IA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE AREA OF WEAK UVV MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE H7 MOIST BAND SAGS SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OR 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO ARK AND OKLA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE STABLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DB TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE A SLOW CLIMB INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. STOFLET && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 742 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 BUT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO THIS AREA WITH THE LATEST RUC REVEALING A NARROW STRIPE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS WILL BE AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE GRIDS AND FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION...GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEK ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AS OF 230 AM BUT HIGH CLOUDS EXTEND WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT REACHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. A COOL AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 50S APPROACHING RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT RECORDS FROM BEING SET. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY RESULTING IN RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE SUN TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS WARM AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ANY KIND OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE TO STAND BY PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLING FOR SEVERAL DRY DAYS AHEAD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...INDICATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BEGINNING TO COME CLOSER TOGETHER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO EFFECT OUR AREA SOMETIME AROUND NEXT FRIDAY. UNTIL THAT TIME...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ 04/WESELY ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED/CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 745 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .UPDATE... BASICALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE SE ZONES TO REMOVE LIKELY WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. DPORTER && .PREV DISCUSSION 345 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005... WHAT A DRAMATIC CHANGE OVER THE CWA COMPARED TO PAST 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE FRONT HAS INVADED THE ERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. PROVES DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN TRUE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION. PREFRONTAL SURGE MAY BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CARLSBAD REGION...HOWEVER 800-700MB CHART INDICATES BEST CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF CLOVIS TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH MVFR CLOUD DECK. DEEP EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAKING THE BEST THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE NAM. HAVE GUIDED GRIDS WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND KEEPING LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE. ACTIVITY STARTING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES... HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD DRIFT PAST THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING CONCERN PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CLOUD COVER RATHER THICK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL SEVERELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 70S. POTENTIAL TO BUST MAX TEMPS RATHER GOOD AS VALUES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS. CURRENTLY HAVE WARMEST READINGS IN THE NE WITH COOLER VALUES IN THE E/C AND SE PLAINS. RUC80 DEPICTING TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS...ONE LOCATED IN CENTRAL UT AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE... WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ABSORBED BY WRN HIGH. WITH THIS IN MIND... UPSLOPE FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHERLY 500MB PATTERN SHOULD KEEP -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES ELEVATED ALONG ERN SLOPES OF SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE EC/SE AND LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DIE. RECYCLING OF MOISTURE PERSISTS ON SAT WITH 500MB HIGH REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATING A DECENT SHORT WAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NE/EC ZONES BY AFTERNOON. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH POPS AND WILL GIVE IT THE NOD. INHERITED GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST SIGNIFICANTLY. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NRN ZONES BY SUNDAY...WHICH MAY REDUCE PCPN CHANCES TO ISOLATED IN NATURE. GFS/NAM BOTH HANGING ON TO SHORT WAVE OVER THE SE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. NOT SURE IF GFS80 IS RECEIVING FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON QPF. ANYWAY...BEST THREAT FOR PCPN FOR SUN/MON WILL BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NONETHELESS...RECYLING OF LINGERING JUICE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST. BOTH GFSLR/DGEX INDICATE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT INTO NRN NEW MEXICO BY TUES/WED WITH GFS FASTER WITH PROGRESSION. GFSLR VERY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE ATTM. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE PROGGED TO MAKE A SURGE NORTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER HIGH. APPEARS ARIZONA WOULD BE THE BIG WINNER...BUT AXIS MAY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT AND SEE. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 82 60 84 60 / 40 50 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 80 54 80 54 / 40 40 30 30 GRANTS.......................... 77 53 80 54 / 30 40 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 84 57 83 57 / 30 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 68 44 73 44 / 40 40 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 51 78 50 / 40 40 30 30 RED RIVER....................... 66 39 69 38 / 50 50 40 30 TAOS............................ 73 50 75 48 / 40 40 30 30 SANTA FE........................ 74 52 76 52 / 30 40 30 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 55 79 56 / 30 40 30 30 ESPANOLA........................ 78 56 81 55 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 82 62 83 64 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 59 84 60 / 30 30 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 60 82 61 / 30 40 30 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 61 83 63 / 30 30 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 83 62 84 63 / 30 30 20 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 54 76 56 / 40 40 30 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 49 80 51 / 40 40 30 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 79 56 82 58 / 30 40 30 30 RUIDOSO......................... 71 51 75 54 / 40 40 30 30 RATON........................... 72 52 79 51 / 40 40 40 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 72 51 76 51 / 40 40 40 30 ROY............................. 76 55 80 55 / 40 30 20 30 CLAYTON......................... 78 57 83 60 / 30 30 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 77 59 84 59 / 40 30 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 77 62 86 63 / 30 30 20 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 76 61 85 62 / 40 30 20 30 CLOVIS.......................... 75 62 84 63 / 50 30 20 30 PORTALES........................ 76 61 85 62 / 50 30 20 30 ROSWELL......................... 77 64 87 66 / 60 30 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 950 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .MORNING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR UPDATE CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDING WIND AND TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED BELOW...RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE E OF AREA SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. 12Z RUC INCREASES 850MB TEMPS AROUND 6C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVING CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS. CURRENT SFC TEMPS INCREASING A BIT FASTER THAN PROJECTED...BUT ALL IN ALL CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE (IF ANYTHING MAY NEED TO INCREASE MAXT 1F-2F). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ADIABATIC LAYER TO ALMOST 700MB...WITH POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP SFC MOISTURE LOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS HIGH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB WINDS ACROSS E ND AND N RRV WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KTS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. WITH ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AREA MAY BE A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT WIND FORECAST 10-15MPH AND WILL OPEN THIS UP A BIT (10-15MPH G25MPH). ---------------------------------------------------------------- ...PREV DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND ND. WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO USED COMPROMISE FOR FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS MOVES E OF THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING S RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S. THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRI AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO ORGANIZE IN THE ROCKIES. CONTINUED SUNSHINE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR MON...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY TUE. WHEN LOOKING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...STILL HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ NG/TG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... BUSY MORNING ACRS FCST AREA. FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS REGION WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF BNDRY. HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN ACRS NRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES HAVE FALLEN. ADDL CONVECTION HAS DVLPD ACRS CNTRL/EASTERN INDIANA AND IS PROPAGATING INTO WHITEWATER VLY. SVRL AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR MID MRNG UPDATE. ALL MODELS (RUC/NAM/GFS) PICKED UP ON LO LVL CONV AXIS ACRS CNTRL OH AT 12Z...AND THAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PART OF THE CULPRIT IN THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO PCPN EARLIER. GOOD PEFF VALUES EARLIER THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL OH AS WELL COMBINED WITH WEAK 950-850 MB LAYERED JET AND 850-700 MB CONV. RUC AND NAM INDCG LO LVL CONV AXIS BREAKING DOWN CURRENTLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE SEEN AREAL COVERAGE TO PCPN DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER LAST HOUR. LO LVL CONV AXIS THEN REFOCUSES ACRS SRN INDIANA/OHIO FOR THIS AFTN...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDL CONVECTION TO DVLP FURTHER SOUTH ACRS FCST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED PCPN CHANCES AT 50 POPS...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED COVERAGE WORDING FROM CHANCE TO SCATTERED BASED ON RADAR OBS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CONCERN FROM TSTMS...AS PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND 12Z KILN SOUNDING INDCG STORM MOTION AT A MERE 7 KTS. RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG THIS AFTN ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE. RUC INDCG SFC TEMPS TO NEAR 95 THIS AFTN ACRS SRN OHIO AND NRN KY...AND WITH CLOUD SHIELD MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND CUTTING OFF SFC HEATING DO NOT SEE CAPES GETTING THIS HIGH. PREFER LOWER VALUES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG AS PER THE NAM. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS/CLOUDS...TEMP RISE HAS BEEN CURTAILED ACRS NRN FCST AREA THIS MRNG DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. HAVE DROPPED AFTN HIGHS ABOUT A CAT ACRS THE BOARD FOR WEST CNTRL/CNTRL OH. LEFT TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS FURTHER SOUTH...AS THEY HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO L/M80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH OF FRNTL BNDRY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ACRS FCST AREA FOR MUCH OF AFTN/EVNG. ACRS NRN KY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SO FAR TODAY...VIS SAT INDCG CLOUD SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH HERE AS WELL. WILL INDICATE MSTLY CLDY FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR AFTN HOURS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RYAN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 650 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENCTRATING OVER AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS HELPING TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WTH LINGERING SHRA BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY NOON WITH FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED IN SRN FORECAST AREA...WONT BE TIL AFTERNOON AS SFC FNT GETS CLOSER TO AREA. SOME HAZE RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS. BY END OF TAF PERIOD...FRONT PUSHES TO SE...WTH LIFTING OF CLOUDS. JDR SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP TO TRAIN. CLEZFPILN ALREADY OUT. SITES (ISSUED 420 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NW OH. COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING THE LAST HOUR...SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO 50 POPS ALL AREAS. PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT....WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEM MUCH OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME POST FRONT INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT GFS LOOKS WAY TOO SLOW IN PUSHING THE INSTABILITY SOUTH. WILL HOLD ONTO 20 POP THIS EVENING ONLY IN SOUTHERN THIRD. GFS STALLS FRONT IN TN...BUT RUNS SERIES OF VORT ACROSS FA...THUS GENERATING QPF. PREFER THE DRY NAM/NGM SOLUTION. GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK IN RETURNING PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY. NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...WHICH A SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MAV...DUE TO QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEN ABOVE MAV HIGHS SAT AND SUN...DUE TO LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS. SITES LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... BACKED OFF ON POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH. GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1038 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE DIURNAL TREND. AS CLOUDS THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. MORNING SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND ADJUSTED GRIDS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. KEPT A LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED MENTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES...HOWEVER 0-6 KM WIND SUGGESTS ANYTHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST. MWM && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 556 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2005) DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO ABOUT TO COME OUT TO ADD POPS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE THE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IN THIS AREA PLUS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET OVER NEBRASKA. ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING THIS IS THE RUC40 WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/QPF CORRESPONDING EXACTLY TO THIS AREA. JUST GOT A COOP REPORT OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN LOGAN COUNTY. RADAR IS CLOSE ON THIS AMOUNT. WEAKER SHOWER COVERAGE MOVING INTO YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHEAR OUT SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 229 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ITS AFFECT ON POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME TOWERING CU OVER SEMO AND WESTERN KY WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS SEEN ON THE 88D. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PULSY THUS FAR AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. GOES VISIBLE ALSO SHOWS SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC TURN TO THE CLOUDS AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGING...AS SEEN ON WV LOOP AND THE RUC...INFRINGING ON THE BOUNDARY AND KEEPING ACTIVITY SCATTERED AT BEST. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE PRIMARY NCEP MODELS THE NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON THE HANDLING OF THIS FRONT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RIBBON OF HIGHER COLUMN RH BEHIND THE STALLING FRONT...WHICH SEEMS IN LINE WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY. GFS PUSHES THE BRUNT OF THIS THROUGH ON SAT ALONG WITH A SFC WIND SHIFT...SO HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST POPS THEN. THESE HOWEVER ARE STILL ONLY CHC AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. UNTIL THEN WILL KEEP LOW END CHC POPS GOING TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS IS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO WIDELY VARYING MOS POPS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER SCENARIO MAINLY SHIFTS INTO A DIURNAL CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY. STILL HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER SAT NIGHT. THOUGH MORE CONVINCING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z ETA STILL USHERS BULK OF MOISTURE AND OUTPUT QPF THROUGH THE AREA BY SUN BEFORE STALLING OVER THE MID SOUTH. GFS AND NGM MORE BELIEVABLE WITH WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD STILL OVER OUR AREA. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THEN ON SUN AND DRY SUN NIGHT AS PARAMETERS ALOFT AND MODEL OUTPUT QPF POINT STRONGLY TOWARDS ONLY HEATING OF THE DAY ACTIVITY. FOR TEMPS HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES BUT CONTINUE TO BE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV. THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUN DURING THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RESIDING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNDER THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. WITH THE OLD FRONT DECAYING INTO A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DAYTIME TSRA CHANCE MON THROUGH WEDS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...12Z GFS TRANSITIONS THE DYING FRONT INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MODEL ALONG WITH HPC PROGS INDICATE AN EMBEDDED WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS FEATURE MAY RENDER GREATER AFTN COVERAGE ON TUES. GFS SOLUTION H850 AND H700 TEMPS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTN CONVECTION ON MON AND TUES...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST. SO THEREFORE HAVE NUDGED UP POPS BOTH OF THESE DAYS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS WEDS AS LINGERING HIGH COLUMN RH AND AFTN QPF STILL PAINTED BY 12Z GFS. BY WEDS NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WEAK SFC RIDGING AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD HAMPER CONVECTION SO HAVE KEPT DRY. SYNOPTIC WAVES WILL REMAIN WITH THE JET AND NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR TEMPS HAVE LEANED VERY CLOSE TO MEX MOS DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUE TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS AND NEAR HPC PROGS DURING LATE IN THE EXTENDED. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CN/MTF LONG TERM...MTF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 107 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .AVIATION... OUTSIDE OF SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME CI/CS FROM DEPARTING 300MB JET...VERY QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BGM && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT TRANQUIL AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH (1025MB) BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY OOZING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE LOW-MID CLOUD DECK SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. LATEST 1KM VISIBLE SHOWS POST-FRONTAL CI/CS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING 300MB JET. FURTHERMORE, SOME CU HAS FIRED UP AS WELL AS OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS NEAR 77F (OF WHICH MOST SITES ARE NEAR THIS POINT). LATEST TAMDAR DATA INTO DTW CONTINUES TO REVEAL PLENTY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND WITH ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR SEEN UPSTREAM PER THIS MORNING H2O VAPOR LOOP AND INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS CU SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED...EXPECT MORE OF A STEADY/SLOW RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEW LAMP AND FWC/MET GUIDANCE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO CURRENT GRIDS AND 12Z SOUNDING MAX TEMPS. SO A FAIRLY MINOR UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY. BGM && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN THUMB COUNTIES AS SEEN IN SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AND AS PER AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SEEMINGLY INDUCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHERWISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SEEN VIA GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND OVERHEAD TONIGHT. 500 MB WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TODAY...BUT IN LIGHT OF GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE IN EVIDENCE TODAY...THOUGH MORE IN WAY OF A PARTIAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE PEELING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LOWER MOISTURE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING EITHER. SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING AS DECENT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS WELL...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ALSO...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...RELATED TO WEAK DIURNAL TROUGHING OVER LAND...WELL DEPICTED BY RUC13...WHICH WILL BE USED FOR WINDS. DELTA T AND 950 MB WINDS TODAY ALSO WOULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NOT ANTICIPATED... SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AREA SHOW STRONG CAP ABOVE 5K FEET TODAY WHICH WILL BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ADJUSTED VERY LITTLE...NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BY THIS WEEKEND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY WITH VERY NICE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB OF ALMOST 9 C/KM. SKIES WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 700MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PW'S CREEPING UP TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. WILL STICK WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WHILE WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE WE WILL SIT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. AT THE LEAST AM EXPECTING HUMIDITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS AGAIN. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY FORCING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THEREFORE A FASTER PASSAGE ACROSS MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THURS AND WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS SUPPORT THE FASTER TIMING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....KEK mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 225 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS WHICH LINGERED THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS APPEARED TO BE AIDED BY AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH WAS PICKED UP BY THE RUC AND HAS SINCE PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN/H85 THETA/E ADVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT APPEARS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WILL BE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SURROUNDS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE 06Z AND NOW 12Z NAM BRING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH THE UKMET SO HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE MORE NORTHERN/DRIER SOLUTIONS. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS H85 TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS BY SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...FROM 12Z MONDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH BUILDING A RIDGE BACK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS BY MID WEEK...BUT DIFFER WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TIED TO A STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE AS THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE 00Z...06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS ALL ARE DIFFERING BY 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THESE SOLUTIONS TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TIMING IS RATHER LOW SO WILL AIM CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE AT THIS POINT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A RATHER WARM AND DRY WEEK UNTIL FRIDAY WHERE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AND TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ 04/CK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 134 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... FRNTL BNDRY ACRS REGION ATTM. FEW AREAS OF -SHRA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRNTL BNDRY...CURRENTLY AFFECTING NRN TAF SITES (KDAY/KCMH/KLCK). IMPRESSIVE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACRS SE INDIANA APPEARS DESTINED TO AFFECT KCVG AND KLUK BY 1830-19Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE PLACED PREVAILING VCSH IN AT BOTH KCVG/KLUK/KILN WITH TEMPO -TSRA THRU 22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR APPCHG CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THESE STORMS WOULD STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF KILN...BUT MAY SEE THESE STORMS DVLP A LITTLE FURTHER TO NORTH AND EAST AS AFTN PROGRESSES. FURTHER NORTH...ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FROM MORNING CONVECTION SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. WILL KEEP VCSH INTO ERLY EVNG TO ACCOUNT FOR WDLY SCT -SHRA. FRNTL BNDRY LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINANT AC DECK ACRS REGION LIKELY TO HANG THRU THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES HAVE DEALT WITH MVFR HZ TO SOME EXTENT OVER LAST FEW HOURS...AND WITH FRNTL BNDRY REMAINING IN THE AREA...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AT KCVG/KLUK/KILN THRU TAF FCST PERIOD. THINK ENUF DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO DAYTON/CMH METRO AREAS TO ALLOW A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR VSBYS FOR LATE AFTN/EVNG BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLD -SHRA OVERNIGHT IN CVG AREA INVOF FRNTL BNDRY. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KCVG/KLUK TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY SPOTTY. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING MVFR HZ IN CVG AREA SAT MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. RYAN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... BUSY MORNING ACRS FCST AREA. FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS REGION WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF BNDRY. HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN ACRS NRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES HAVE FALLEN. ADDL CONVECTION HAS DVLPD ACRS CNTRL/EASTERN INDIANA AND IS PROPAGATING INTO WHITEWATER VLY. SVRL AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR MID MRNG UPDATE. ALL MODELS (RUC/NAM/GFS) PICKED UP ON LO LVL CONV AXIS ACRS CNTRL OH AT 12Z...AND THAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PART OF THE CULPRIT IN THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO PCPN EARLIER. GOOD PEFF VALUES EARLIER THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL OH AS WELL COMBINED WITH WEAK 950-850 MB LAYERED JET AND 850-700 MB CONV. RUC AND NAM INDCG LO LVL CONV AXIS BREAKING DOWN CURRENTLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE SEEN AREAL COVERAGE TO PCPN DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER LAST HOUR. LO LVL CONV AXIS THEN REFOCUSES ACRS SRN INDIANA/OHIO FOR THIS AFTN...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDL CONVECTION TO DVLP FURTHER SOUTH ACRS FCST AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED PCPN CHANCES AT 50 POPS...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED COVERAGE WORDING FROM CHANCE TO SCATTERED BASED ON RADAR OBS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CONCERN FROM TSTMS...AS PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND 12Z KILN SOUNDING INDCG STORM MOTION AT A MERE 7 KTS. RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG THIS AFTN ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE. RUC INDCG SFC TEMPS TO NEAR 95 THIS AFTN ACRS SRN OHIO AND NRN KY...AND WITH CLOUD SHIELD MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND CUTTING OFF SFC HEATING DO NOT SEE CAPES GETTING THIS HIGH. PREFER LOWER VALUES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG AS PER THE NAM. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS/CLOUDS...TEMP RISE HAS BEEN CURTAILED ACRS NRN FCST AREA THIS MRNG DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. HAVE DROPPED AFTN HIGHS ABOUT A CAT ACRS THE BOARD FOR WEST CNTRL/CNTRL OH. LEFT TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS FURTHER SOUTH...AS THEY HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO L/M80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH OF FRNTL BNDRY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ACRS FCST AREA FOR MUCH OF AFTN/EVNG. ACRS NRN KY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SO FAR TODAY...VIS SAT INDCG CLOUD SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH HERE AS WELL. WILL INDICATE MSTLY CLDY FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR AFTN HOURS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RYAN (ISSUED 650 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENCTRATING OVER AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS HELPING TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WTH LINGERING SHRA BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY NOON WITH FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED IN SRN FORECAST AREA...WONT BE TIL AFTERNOON AS SFC FNT GETS CLOSER TO AREA. SOME HAZE RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS. BY END OF TAF PERIOD...FRONT PUSHES TO SE...WTH LIFTING OF CLOUDS. JDR SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP TO TRAIN. CLEZFPILN ALREADY OUT. SITES (ISSUED 420 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NW OH. COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING THE LAST HOUR...SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO 50 POPS ALL AREAS. PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT....WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEM MUCH OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME POST FRONT INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT GFS LOOKS WAY TOO SLOW IN PUSHING THE INSTABILITY SOUTH. WILL HOLD ONTO 20 POP THIS EVENING ONLY IN SOUTHERN THIRD. GFS STALLS FRONT IN TN...BUT RUNS SERIES OF VORT ACROSS FA...THUS GENERATING QPF. PREFER THE DRY NAM/NGM SOLUTION. GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK IN RETURNING PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY. NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...WHICH A SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MAV...DUE TO QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEN ABOVE MAV HIGHS SAT AND SUN...DUE TO LESS PCPN AND CLOUDS. SITES LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... BACKED OFF ON POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH. GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005 .SHORT TERM... BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM THE MIDLAND AREA NORTHEAST TO AROUND WICHITA FALLS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS WHICH HAS NOW DRIFTED NORTHWEST. WITH THE LATEST RUC SHOWING THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY BY MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING. PW'S STILL IN THE SAME ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCH RANGE AS YESTERDAY...LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY DEVELOPING CELLS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INSTABILITY TOMORROW AND WITH THE PROXIMATY OF WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO TOMORROW EVENING AND HAVE BROUGHT AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. .LONG TERM... LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BUILDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING NOW INDICATED BY MIDWEEK FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE FIRST OF THE COMING WEEK...WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH ANTICIPATED PERIODIC IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CARRIED BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCSTD SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD DRYING AT ALL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY...WILL END MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT THE FORMATION OF SEVERAL TUTT LOWS FORMING IN THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO FACTOR THESE INTO THE FORECAST RUN THIS FAR OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 67 86 69 90 / 50 40 20 30 SAN ANGELO 67 86 69 91 / 60 40 20 30 JUNCTION 67 87 69 90 / 40 40 20 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 99/15 tx