SRAK48 PACR 052205 RVAAK AKZALL-022300- ALASKA SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY NWS ALASKA-PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK 200 PM ADT SAT MAY 05 2007 ...SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR ALASKA... FLOOD WARNING/WATCHES: NONE CURRENTLY ********************************************************************* *EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY * *OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO * *MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION AT* *ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS. * ********************************************************************* RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY: TANANA RIVER... THE TANANA RIVER AND MOST OF ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE OPEN AND WATER LEVELS ARE LOW. LOTS OF SHORE ICE AND SOME ICE COVER LIKELY EXISTS IN SLOUGHS. TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE ALASKA RANGE MAY STILL BE ICE COVERED AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. YUKON RIVER... THE YUKON RIVER ICE AT EAGLE BROKE 4-30. THE YUKON RIVER ICE WENT OUT AT DAWSON ON 5-4. AN ICE RUN IS MOVING BY EAGLE TODAY. DOWNSTREAM AT CIRCLE THE ICE IS STILL INTACT BUT ROTTEN. AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TANANA RIVER AT TANANA AN OPEN LEAD FORMED 4-30. THIS LEAD HAS PROGRESSED DOWNRIVER TOWARD RUBY. ADDITIONAL SHIFTING HAS OCCURRED DOWNSTREAM OF RUBY ALL WAY TO NULATO. THE ICE IS REPORTED TO BE ROTTEN IN THE REACH FROM RUBY TO NULATO AND MORE SHIFTING AND DECAYING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOVEMENT WAS ALSO REPORTED AT MARSHALL ON 4-30 AND SOME SHIFTING WAS REPORED 5-2 DOWNSTREAM OF HOLYCROSS AT THE MOUTH OF THE INNOKO. KUSKOKWIM RIVER... THE RIVER ICE IS OUT ON THE ENTIRE RIVER EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH. THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS OVER. SOME SLOUGHS REMAIN ICE COVERED AND LOTS OF SHORE STILL EXISTS. ICE RUNS EXIST AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE LONGER AT DOWNSTREAM POINTS AS MOST OF THE RIVER WENT OUT IN A VERY SHORT TIME PERIOD. NUSHAGAK RIVER... THE ICE WENT OUT ON THE NUSHAGAK RIVER DURING THE LAST WEEK IN APRIL. SOME SMALL ICE RUNS LIKELY STILL EXIST AND SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATION TRIBUATIRES STILL HAVE ICE COVER. COPPER RIVER... AT CHITINA THE RIVER IS MOSTLY OPEN AND HAS BEEN SINCE 4-26. AN ICE JAM FORMED ON THE GULKANA RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY BRIDGE 5-3. MOST COPPER RIVER TRIBUTARIES SHOULD BE BREAKING UP AND ICE RUNS SHOULD BE THINNING OUT DURING THE NEXT WEEK. KOYUKUK RIVER... THE KOYUKUK RIVER FROM BETTLES TO THE MOUTH IS SHIFTED WITH LOTS OF OPEN LEADS. AN ICE JAM FORMED JUST DOWNSTREAM OF HUGHES 5-2 BUT NO OVERBANK FLOODING OCCURRED. THE VOLUME OF WATER IN THE KOYUKUK RIVER SYSTEM IS REPORED TO MUCH LESS THAN USUAL DURING THIS BREAKUP SEASON. A THERMAL BREAKUP IS OCCURRING AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT EXISTS. SOUTHCENTRAL... THE RIVER ICE IS OUT OF YENTNA RIVER DOWN TO THE MOUTH. THE SUSITNA RIVER IS OPENING QUICKLY FROM TALKEETNA DOWNRIVER. THE ICE IS ALSO REPORTED TO BE OUT ON THE SUSITNA RIVER FROM COOK INLET UP UP RIVER TO ALMOST THE YENTNA COUNFLUENCE. MOST TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE TALKEETNAS ARE RIVER ICE FREE HOWEVER HIGH ELEVATION REACHES STILL LIKELY HAVE SOME ICE. THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING THE MELT SEASON. FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR ICE JAMS. * AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1970 THROUGH 2006 AND ARE CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA. ** ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE FOR THIS YEAR --------------------------------------------------------------------- SNOWMELT FLOOD AVERAGE NO. OF FORECAST RIVER - REACH RUNOFF POTENTIAL BREAKUP YEARS BREAKUP VOLUME DATE * RECORD DATE ------------- ---------- --------- ------- ------ -------- SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ABOVE KENAI RIVER AVERAGE ANCHOR RIVER BELOW MATANUSKA RIVER BELOW SUSITNA RIVER BELOW GOLD CREEK LOW SUNSHINE LOW 05/03 17 5/03** YENTNA RIVER BELOW LAKE CREEK LOW 04/30 16 4/30** SKWENTNA RIVER BELOW SKWENTNA LOW 04/30 13 4/30** COPPER RIVER BASIN AVERAGE GAKONA RVR @ HWY LOW 04/29 20 4/30** GULKANA RVR @ HWY LOW 04/28 18 5/05-5/06 CHENA RIVER BELOW CHENA LAKES PROJECT LOW FAIRBANKS LOW 04/25 21 4/24** TANANA RIVER BELOW NORTHWAY LOW 04/22 20 4/26** SALCHA LOW-MOD FAIRBANKS LOW 04/29 8 4/24** NENANA LOW 05/02 33 4/27** MANLEY LOW 05/03 17 4/25** KUSKOKWIM RIVER BELOW NIKOLAI LOW 04/23 22 4/21** MCGRATH LOW-MOD 05/07 33 4/30** STONY RIVER LOW 05/06 19 4/29** SLEETMUTE LOW-MOD 05/05 18 4/30** RED DEVIL LOW-MOD 05/06 21 4/30** CROOKED CREEK LOW-MOD 05/07 21 4/29** ANIAK LOW-MOD 05/07 24 4/29** KALSKAG LOW 05/08 18 4/30** TULUKSAK LOW 05/10 15 5/02** AKIAK LOW 05/10 21 4/29** KWETHLUK LOW-MOD BETHEL LOW 05/12 36 5/03** NAPAKIAK LOW 05/13 13 5/03** YUKON RIVER (UPPER) AVERAGE EAGLE LOW 05/05 27 4/30** CIRCLE LOW-MOD 05/10 24 5/05-5/07 FORT YUKON LOW 05/10 24 5/06-5/10 BEAVER LOW 05/12 11 5/07-5/11 STEVENS VILLAGE LOW 05/14 10 5/07-5/12 RAMPART LOW 05/14 11 5/08-5/12 YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE) BELOW TANANA LOW 05/11 21 4/30** RUBY LOW 05/12 23 5/05-5/09 GALENA LOW-MOD 05/12 24 5/05-5/09 KOYUKUK LOW-MOD NULATO LOW-MOD 05/14 10 5/04** KALTAG LOW 05/14 30 5/07-5/13 ANVIK LOW 05/18 18 5/10-5/17 YUKON RIVER (LOWER) BELOW HOLY CROSS LOW 05/16 18 5/07-5/12 RUSSIAN MISSION LOW 05/15 21 5/07-5/15 PILOT STATION LOW 05/18 9 5/08-5/17 MOUNTAIN VILLAGE LOW 05/19 18 5/10-5/18 ALAKUNUK/EMMONAK LOW-MOD 05/22 23 5/14-5/21 KOYUKUK RIVER BELOW BETTLES LOW 05/10 25 5/2** ALLAKAKET LOW 05/11 20 5/2** HUGHES LOW-MOD 05/12 19 5/2** SEWARD PENINSULA BELOW BUCKLAND RIVER BELOW BUCKLAND LOW-MOD 05/19 15 5/14-5/24 KOBUK RIVER BELOW KOBUK LOW-MOD 05/17 26 5/09-5/16 SHUNGNAK LOW 05/19 16 5/11-5/18 AMBLER LOW 05/19 23 5/11-5/18 NOATAK RIVER BELOW NOATAK LOW 05/20 12 5/13-5/21 BROOKS RANGE - NORTH BELOW COLVILLE @ UMIAT LOW 05/24 9 5/20-5/28 COLVILLE @ COLVILLE LOW 05/31 10 5/26-6/04 FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP... BREAKUP MAP... AND OTHER BREAKUP INFORMATION FOR ALASKA REFER TO OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV. IF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS PRODUCT PLEASE EMAIL BECKY.PERRY@NOAA.GOV THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY IS SCHEDULED AT 2 PM SUNDAY MAY 6. $$ DPS