FXUS61 KBUF 110235
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 PM EST MON NOV 10 2003

THE AVN STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EASTWARD 
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. 
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA IS STILL VERY DRY BELOW 500 MB...SO MOST 
OF OUR FA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. I WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE POPS 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TOWARD 
MORNING ACROSS MONROE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...ASSUMING THE FASTER 
TREND DEPICTED BY THE GFS CONTINUES TO VERIFY. 

AREA TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT ACROSS WESTERN 
NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE EAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF EARLY 
MINS FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS GOOD. 

THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS. 

TUE...MODELS NOT VASTLY DIFFERENT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH WARM FRONT 
AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BULK OF 
THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING WEST AND DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. QPF TAPERS OFF DURING THE EVENING. OUR REGION WILL 
BE UNDER A REGION OF LITTLE DYNAMICS BUT A FAIRLY SHARP NORTH TO 
SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT. REDUCED POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS TUESDAY 
NIGHT...BUT KEPT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. DECIDED TO BE 
MORE OPTIMISTIC ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY 
HAVING NO PRECIP AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIMITED SUN. POPS INCREASED 
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM.

WED LATE-EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION. LIKELY 
POPS WERE USED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. MODEL FCST CAPES IN THE WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL REGION IN THE 400-600 J/KG RANGE. THUNDER IS A 
POSSIBILITY...BUT WONT PUT IN FCST FOR NOW. H8 TEMPS WILL DIVE FROM 
THE 5-7 C RANGE ON 00Z THU TO THE -4 TO -7 RANGE BY 12Z THU. WINDS 
WILL INCREASE AS THE CAA STRENGTHS ACROSS REGION...MODELS SHOW 
SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 25-40 KNOT RANGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL 
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE 
REQUIRED IN FUTURE FCSTS.  

XTENDED FORECAST...(THU-MON). AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...COLD 
AIR AND LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT. UPPER LOW REMAIN JUST NORTH OF REGION WITH ABUNDANT RH 
CIRCULATING ACROSS REGION. BASICALLY USED CHC POPS MOVE ENTIRE FA 
WITH AREAS OF LIKELY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS. REGIONS TO THE 
EAST OF THE LAKES ARE FAVORED THURSDAY...BUT AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LAKE EFFECT 
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. IT SHOULD 
REMAIN IN THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES UNTIL CONDITIONS BECOME 
MORE UNFAVORABLE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY INHIBIT ORGANIZATION OF THE BANDS SOMEWHAT. 

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MORE SATURDAY 
THROUGH MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THIS PERIOD EXCEPT A FEW 
SHOWERS LATER MONDAY IN THE SW CORNER OF THE STATE...TO BLEND THE 
KCLE'S GRIDS. 

.BUF...NONE.

$$

TJP/PO