FXUS63 KDTX 260705
AFDDTX

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
305 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHCS BECOMING MAIN CHALLENGE...

A VERY STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING INTO AN ACTIVE ONE THIS 
WEEK AND MAYBE BACK TO STAGNATION NEXT WEEKEND? 00Z UAA SHOWED UPPER
LOW NOW A FAR DISTANCE EAST OF CWFA...BUT MODELS STILL WOBBLE IT BACK
THIS WAY FOR TUE/WED. THEREAFTER A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RACE INTO 
THE AREA ON NW FLOW FROM THE NRN PACIFIC...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS NOW
PROGGED INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU AM...A BIT FASTER. THIS STILL
KICKS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OUT OF AREA...BUT REALLY DOESN/T CHANGE
THE BLOCKING PATTERN APPRECIABLY...SAVE A FEW DAYS LATE THIS WEEK. 
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WRN CONUS AND TROFFING CONTINUES OFF THE 
WEST COAST.

WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THIS FORECAST. FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS. 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN MODEL PROGS SO ONLY MINOR TWEEKS NEEDED. 
THEREAFTER...THE BUSINESS OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN MORE OR LESS 
HOLDING BECOMES AN ISSUE. AFTER SVRL NW FLOW WAVES RACE THRU 
AREA...GFS NOW DROPS A BIG CHUNK OF COOL AIR DOWN FROM CANADA AS 
RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CMC AND UKMET SUPPORT THIS GENERAL IDEA...BUT 
ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH DROPPING HGHTS THAT FAR SOUTH INTO THE 
REGION.
 
GIVEN THESE ARE DAYS 6/7...NOT WILLING TO BITE HOOK/LINE/SINKER...BUT
WILL TREND SUNDAY COOLER. THIS WOULD BE A RATHER UNFORTUNATE DVLPMNT
IF THINGS SHAPE UP IN THIS GENERAL WAY...EXTENDING AN ALREADY COOL/
DAMP SPRING INTO JUNE.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST W/ TEMPS PUSHING 70 TODAY
THEN DROPPING BACK 5 OR SO DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW WOBBLE
THEN EDGING BACK UP TO 70 THU AND INTO THE 70-75 RANGE FRI/SAT. BEST
SHOTS AT PRECIP WILL BE SOME SHRAS ON TUE W/ UPPER LOW...SCT SHRAS
AND TSRAS WED NIGHT/THU AND FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH NW FLOW WAVES. WE/LL
SEE HOW THINGS SHAPE UP AFTER THAT.

.DTX...NONE. 

$$

GURNEY

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