AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 940 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SE GULF GRADUALLY DEEPENING WHICH IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. GRAYS REEF IS SHOWING A SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS...ST AUGUSTINE PIER 19 KNOTS. AS LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NE OVERNITE ...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. PREVIOUS FCST OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS ALONG THE COAST (RUC IS SHOWING SOME 6 HOUR PCP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENDING AT 12Z). INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH BOUNDARY WINDS STRONGER TONIGHT AND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT...PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT SOME AREAS GOT LAST NIGHT. .JAX... .GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH. .FL...SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH. PETERSON/CARROLL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 900 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 TLH SAT 00Z SOUNDING HAS A PW OF .76 IN AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTER AIR FILTERING BACK INTO EASTERN BIG BEND WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO HI LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE SAME AREA. 500 MB RUC DOESN'T INDICATE MUCH MOVEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND MSAS HAS SFC LOW IN SE GULF CONTINUING TO PUMP GULF MOISTRE NORTHWARD. WL UPDATE ZONES TO CHANGE CLOUD COVER AND TWEAK MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND VALDOSTA PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ELSE CLR SKIES AND CALM WIND FCST ON TRACK REST OF CWA. SCEC CRITERIA BEING MET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WL LEAVE UP. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WX WATCH FOR FL ZONES NOON TIL SUNSET SATURDAY. MME fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 CURRENT...SFC FRONT IN SIMILAR POSN TO THU ALTHOUGH H925-H85 WINDS OVER HAVE BECOME LGT/VRBL AS OPPOSED TO SW @5-10 ON THU. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATOR THAT THE FRONTAL SURFACE HAS DEEPENED OR NUDGED SOUTH A BIT. 12Z RAOBS INDICATE A 1/2" DROP N PWATS COURTESY OF PRONOUNCED DRYING ABOVE H70...HOWEVER AIR MASS REMAINS SATURATED BELOW. RAOBS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS DEPICTS UNUSUALLY STRONG 80KT+ H25 JET CORE OVHD WITH STRONG JET DIFFLUENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF LINE FROM ABOUT KSRQ-KMLB..AND EXTENDING WELL SW INTO THE GOMEX/YUCATAN AREA. PLETHORA OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORT FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING SE U.S. H50 TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF COAST. NUMEROUS IMPULSES ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER JET OVER THE GOMEX. FCST...EXPECT VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER GUNGE LIMITING SUN TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH...SIMILAR TO THU. THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH...AND MAY SHADE BACK POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DON'T PLAN TO MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD PAN OUT SIMILAR TO THU AS WELL. MARINE...BUOY DATA SHOWS NW WINDS @5-10KT AT 41009/41010...LIKELY A FUNCTION OF THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER JUST TO THE NORTH AS SAUF1 IS REPORTING 17-18KT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLIP NORTHERNMOST PART OF FLG-COF LEG. MAY NEED TO SHADE WINDS TO N-NE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS SHOULD BE MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE COF-JUP LEG (AND WILL WORD AS SUCH) GIVEN THE POSN OF BOTH THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE...AS WELL AS THE FRONT ITSELF. .MLB...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD...OSCEOLA ...OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES. PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UDAPTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 845 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2001 WILL UPDATE NORTH ZONES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SOUTH TO PARTIAL CLEARING. SOME HOLES OPENING...OTHER CLEAR AREAS FILLING IN NEARBY TO OUR CWFA. A LITTLE MORE DEFINITIVE "BACK EDGE" OF CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER LAKE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP NORTHERN CWFA IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. NOT MUCH LOWERING OF INVERSION FORECAST OVERNIGHT BY LATEST RUC/MESOETA, WHICH COULD TEND TO SUPRESS STRATOCU. KAPLAN il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 300 PM EST FRI SEP 28 2001 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ETA/RUC SHOWING HIGH LEVEL RH IN SFC-850LYR OVERNIGHT. SOME BREAKS ERN ZNS WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FM NE. ELEVATED INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT AND SUSPECT ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING. FOG MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN TMRW NIGHT WITH HIR RH ONLY IN BL AND RADNL INVERSION BUT WL NOT MAKE MENTION AS OF YET. CORE OF COLD AIR MOVES TO WPA/WV/ERN OH TMRW WILL FINALLY SEE SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. LTL CHNGS LTR PDS. MISFWA AVBL. .IWX..NONE. PBM in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1050 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 CU STARTING TO DVLP LATE THIS MORNING. WILL GO MCLDY IN THE NW...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL...AND BEC PARTLY SUNNY SE. LIMITED SHRA ACTVTY IN PA/OH/WV IS DISSIPATING. 06Z ETA KEEPS IT DRY EXCPT A COUPLE HNDTHS IN THE MTN NW. WILL DROP POPS BACK TO 20 EXCPT IN THE NW AND WORD AS A SLGHT CHC OF A LTE AFTN SHRA. 500MB TMPS GET QUITE COLD AND RUC SNDGS INDCTE SOME INSTAB TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH IMPENDING S/W. STRONG .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 UPDATE CONCERNS ARE FROST POTENTIAL AND MIN TEMPS. WV LOOP/00Z RAOB PLOT SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPR RDG AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN GRT LAKES. ASSOC SFC RDG CNTRD OVR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SCNTRL ONTARIO FCST TO BUILD SE OF FA OVRNGT AS LGT SFC FLOW VEERS NE TO SW. COMBINATION OF LGT WND...CLR SKIES...AND STG SUBSIDENCE UNDER RDG SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE 10-12F THRU CURRENT DWPNTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT OVER SRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO UPPER 30S/LWR 40S AS OF 01Z OBS. GIVEN THAT THE 18Z AVN/ETA AND 00Z RUC SHOW THE RDG AXIS BUILDING INTO SWRN AND SCNTRL COUNTIES...HAVE INCLUDED IRON...DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES IN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY ON UPDATE. SINCE MUCH OF GOGEBIC COUNTY SAW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER IN WEEK...THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN HEADLINE ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY SEE FROST AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES TO BE MADE ON UPDATE. .MQT...FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT MIZ001-003>007-010>013-014. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH CLEARING OVER EAST UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CENTERED AROUND CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 850/500 MB QVECTORS SHOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...500 MB CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND LAKE HURON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA...WILL MENTION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER EAST UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 958 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AT 1403Z. WHILE RUC AND MESOETA DEPICT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDING OVER THE U. P. AS 5H RDG AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...HOWEVER ENOUGH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO LIFT INVERSION THRU THE DAY WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER ONCE THE CLOUDS LIFT WITH READINGS REBOUNDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN LATER THIS AFTN WINDS TO STAY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS PARAMETER NEEDED WITHIN ONGOING FORECAST. .MQT...NONE. RJT mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 840 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2001 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SE MT WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ISN SOUTHWESTWARD TO MLS AND SHR. GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENING IN WESTERN CWA AS LOW NUDGES TO THE EAST. 00Z RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW 40+ KT 850MB SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT...SO IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF NE WY AND NW SD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND THRU REST OF CWA...EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH THIS IN MIND...ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. WILL DECREASE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND CLEAN UP SOME OF THE WORDING. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS IN NE WY...NW SD...AND THE HILLS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOME WIND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. .UNR...NONE. ST sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 940 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 UPR LOW OVR SE NY FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD THRU TNGT. RUC 925 MB STRMLN ANALYS SHWS LL CIRCLN ACRS SNE. LOW CLDS LOCKED IN ACRS RGN IN MOIST NE FLOW WITH SCT SHWRS INDCTD ACRS CNTRL/S VT. RH PROFILES MAINTAIN DEEP MSTR TO ABT 10K FT THRUT TDA ACRS CNTRL/S ZNS WITH MSTR DECRG AFT 18Z ST LAW VLY AND NR CNDN BDR. CRNT FCST OF CHC N ZNS AND LKLY S VT LOOKS RSNBL. WL SCALE BACK TMPS A BIT AS DO NOT XPCT MCH INCR FM CRNT RDGS WHICH ARE CRNTLY IN U40S. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 820 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2001 WITH THE SUN DOWN...RUC SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT THEN PULLING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA SUPPORT THIS. SO HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS (WEST EARLY AND IN MOUNTAINS LATER) AND PUT IN SOME PATCHY FOG. SUN ACTION SATURDAY SHOULD PERMIT THE RETURN OF SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH CLEARING AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. .END /AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 307 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2001 IMMEDIATE FCST CONCERNS THIS MRNG WL BE ST CROSSING MS RVR...AND PCPN CHCS LATE IN WEEKEND...BUT FCST BASICALLY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LTL CHGS FORESEEN. LOW CLDS HAVE REACHED ERN PTNS OF IA BUT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY HINTS AT TURN TO NW WHICH MAY JUST BRUSH ERN FA. LOWEST GATES OF LCL PROFILERS ALSO SUGGEST THIS WITH SUBTLE VEERING. 06Z RUC 925MB DELIMITING STREAMLINES WOULD KEEP ST OVR ERN FA JUST N AND E OF KDSM SO WL ADD CLDS TO THESE LOCATIONS. UPR LVL TROF NOW OVR WRN U.S. BCMS NOTHING MORE THAN SHEAR AXIS BY SUN AS IT FLATTENS UPR LVL RDG THRU CNTRL CONUS. ALTHOUGH ETA AND AVN FORCING FIELDS QUITE SIMILAR...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA AS MDL OF CHOICE THIS MRNG WHICH IS DRY. ETA SFC AND ELEVATED CAPE/SHOWALTER INDICES ALL NEUTRAL OR SLGTLY STABLE SO DO NOT XPC MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. STRATIFORM PCPN MAY BE CLOSE HWVR. AVN CONTS TO WANT TO GENERATE MINOR QPF AMTS WITH TROF PASSAGE BUT CANNOT FIND ENOUGH REASONS TO BUCK PERSISTENCE ATTM. THERE MAY BE SOME LGT AMTS...BUT AVN/ETA QG FORCING AND OMEGA ALL DMSH INTO SUN NGT AS TROF CONTS TO SHEAR OUT. BETTER CHCS JUST TO N. ETA 300-305K NET ISENT ADIABATIC OMEGA DOES INDC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS HWVR SO WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMTS OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WL GO WITH THE OLE SILENT POP JUST UNDER 20 PERCENT FOR NOW. COORDINATION W/ARX. WL CONT TEMP TREND OF FOLLOWING WRM END OF GUID FOR MAXES AND LOW END FOR MINS AS WE TYPICALLY SEE LRGR DIURNAL SWINGS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS HAS SEEMED TO WORK WELL LATELY. NO SGFNT CHGS TO ANYTHING BYD MON. CURRENT FCST HAS POPS TUE INTO WED WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD PER 00Z AVN. HWVR 00Z AVN REFLECTS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO MAY CHG RAIN CHCS TO SHWRS/TSTMS. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2001 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION/ SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY FROM HIGH BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO FAR EASTERN CWA AGAIN THIS MORNING. RUC INDICATES THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THIS AREA AS INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. WILL BREAK OFF THE FAR EAST FOR MORNING CLOUDS/FOG. PROBLEM THEN BECOMES HOW WARM THIS REGION WILL GET. SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AND MORNING CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURE DOWN QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD WARM READING INTO THE LOWER 70S AT LEAST. 60S TO HANG ON IN THE EAST. LIKED NGM MOS IN THE EAST AND LEANING TOWARD WARMER AVN WEST TODAY. FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. VERY WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION SMALL POP IN THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA FOR SUNDAY. DRY IN THE FAR EAST. LINGERING SMALL POP INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...OTHERWISE DRY. NGM MOS LOOKS LIKE THE ETA 2M TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THICKER CLOUDS/ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA...SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. AVN APPEARS TO BE TOO COLD. EXTENDED...NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUE/TUE NITE. THEN COOLING BEGINS FOR THE END OF THE WEAK. .MSP...NONE. DWE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 120 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2001 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION...EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION NEWD THROUGH MN/WI. UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WITH H5 TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK INTO N AR/OK RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI/MI RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CWA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF IL ADVECTING INTO REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MO AS OPPOSED TO IL...AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLOUD DECK ERODING AS IT ADVECTS WEST. NONETHELESS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CAA SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABOLIZATION OF LOW LEVELS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...ALLOWING SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. OTHERWISE ETA PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL COOLING OF 2-3C AGAIN TODAY OVER FRI...WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY FOR SUNDAY. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS AS THEY SEEM TO FOLLOW THIS TREND THE BEST. WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED BY MODELS FOR MONDAY. GULF WILL REMAIN CLOSED AS SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN STATES...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG COAST. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...AND WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE. MODELS STILL INDICATING LONG WAVE RETROGRESSION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BECOMING REPOSITIONED ALONG WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH PLAINS. COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED BY AVN FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH MENTION OF RAIN WED AND COOLDOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ SEAMAN mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1010 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2001 A LOT OF CI OVER THE CWA ESP ALG THE COAST. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING. ETA/MESOETA ARE DOING A BETTER JOB WITH SYS IN SE GULF. AVN IS TOO STRONG AT THE SFC AND H85. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW INVOF NEW ORLEANS. NOT PLANNING MANY CHANGES ON THE UPDATE BUT WILL ADJUST SKY COVER TO P/CLOUDY ALG THE COAST. WILL KEEP M/SUNNY INLAND WITH JUST THIN CI EXPECTED. WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN A COUPLE OF ZONES...BUT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL ALSO BEEF UP WINDS IN A COUPLE ZONES. MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR NEARSHORE SC AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS AND A STRONG SCA FOR NEARSHORE GA WATERS AND CHS HARBOR. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. TIDES...PREDICTED HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING 7.5 FT AT SAV AND 6 FT AT CHS. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEARLY 1.5 FT AT SAV AND 3/4 FT AT CHS. WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE INTO ACCOUNT AND STRONG NNE FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT SAV AND POSSIBLE AT CHS. WILL HEADLINE PRODUCTS THAT WAY. FCSTID = 20 CHS 72 52 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 SAV 75 54 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 CHL 71 59 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 NBC 73 53 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 RBW 74 50 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 .CHS... GA...GALE WARNING AMZ374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ354. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. SC...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. TJR/JMB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 953 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2001 UPPER RIDGE OVER MN...WITH UPPER TROUGH HUGGING IMEDIATE E COAST. CI MOVING NE ALONG COAST...WHILE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY SW ALONG APPALACHIANS. RUC SHOWS MOISTURE AT 850 MB REACHING N TIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST. RUC LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS TMEPERATURES ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER THAN CURRENT RANGE AT GSP AND CLT...BUT WILL NOT ADJUST DUE TO EXPECTED COOLER READINGS N PART OF THESE AREAS. WIND WASTED NO TIME IN COMING UP TO EXPECTED RANGE OF 15 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. SOME GUSTING AT CLT NOTED...BUT WITH WIND STILL BELOW 10 MPH SOME AREAS...WILL LEAVE CURRENT WIND SPEED ALONE. FCSTID = 7 GSP 71 48 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 AND 72 47 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 CLT 70 48 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 HKY 68 46 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 AVL 66 44 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 .GSP... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1015 AM MDT SAT SEP 29 2001 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONT INCHING EAST FROM KBIS TO KCDR. TS AHEAD OF IT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. 12Z RUC PAINTS VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WON/T START ACCELERATING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MT/ID CATCHES UP WITH IT. HENCE...SUMMERLIKE READINGS EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT WITH A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE. 12Z ETA SIMILAR TO RUC. UPDATE COMING SOON. .UNR...NONE. HELGESON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2001 PATCHY DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE ABOUT GONE PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS...ALTHO STILL A PROBLEM AT TRI. RUC MODEL DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE (70-80% RH) AROUND 900-850 MB LEVEL OVER EXTREME NE ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL EQUATE TO PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE. OTHERWISE...MINS THIS MORNING REFLECTED QUITE A RANGE FROM TRI TO CHA (15 DEGREES DIFF)...AS NE WINDS STAYED UP AROUND 10 KTS AT CHA AND TYS...WHILE CALM WINDS AND DENSE FOG OCCURRED AT TRI. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...BUT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOKS GOOD...AND SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MAX TEMPS. MORNING UPDATE TO FOLLOW...BUT MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 352 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2001 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW PERSISTENT TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. NARROW VORT MAX LOCATED OVER MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN...EVEN STRETCHING SOUTH INTO NEVADA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG FROM OVERNIGHT HAVING MIXED OUT...LINGERING LONGEST OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MONTANA SHORTWAVE/DAKOTAS TROUGH WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH. NEXT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH. STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN PAST TWO NIGHTS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...CWA WILL SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LAST NIGHT. 12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWS A LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. ETA/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIMILAR PROFILE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG FORMATION. ANY THAT DOES WOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCAL MOISTURE SOURCES SUCH AS LAKES OR PONDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...BUT TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. UPPER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA...WITH THE FRONT NEARLY WASHING OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICS AND LACK OF MOISTURE...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDS. CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH AREA OF WEAK/NARROW UVM/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH. EVEN THROUGH THERE IS NO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MONDAY...WITH CLEARING AIDED BY MIXING DURING THE DAY. PRESENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY...BUT NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY. WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM THE YUKON AND REACHING UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. DEEP TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MRF/UKMET BRING THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF/12Z AVN SLIGHTLY FASTER. BIG FEATURE OF CONCERN WILL BE UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. ECMWF/UKMET ARE FASTER/SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE MRF... BRINGING IT TO WESTERN ONTARIO RATHER THAN CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 12Z FRIDAY. CANADIAN SOLUTION SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BY 144H. DPROG/DT FOR 12Z THURSDAY SHOWS THE MRF HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER...AND THE MRF KEEPS THIS SLOWER TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REINFORCING SHORTWAVE... WITH -12C 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE CWA SATURDAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 1275M BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND PRECIP LOOK TO MIX WITH SNOW. SIMILAR PATTERN/TIMING TO SYSTEM FROM OCTOBER 7 OF LAST YEAR...WITH A LARGE VARIABILITY OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN LAKESHORE LOCATIONS AND THOSE INLAND AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. EARLY BRUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA ON FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE THE MAIN PUSH. .MQT...NONE. JHB mi