ARESE 48 hour Meteorological Forecast

			  12z 24 October 1995
			  

Forecast Based on Satellite, Current Surface Observations, 12z ETA, 12z NGM,
      06z RUC Output Animation, 12z 23 Oct. ECMWF, 00z 24 Oct. MRF 


Synopsis:    Scattered cirrus and altostratus are occurring in advance of a
weak upper-level disturbance over the southwestern states, with cirrus
generating over the southern Rockies.  High pressure dominates the surface
weather with light winds and a dry, stable lower troposphere. 

Prog Discussion:  Scattered to occasionally broken cirrus and altostratus
will approach from the west and gradually dissipate as they pass.  Continued
cirrus generation over New Mexico should cause an increase in cloudiness for
the afternoon.  The chance for high cloud will remain through tomorrow as
a weak trough in the upper troposphere holds to our west.  Models disagree
on the magnitude of an increase in low-level moisture for tomorrow, but it is
safe to say that there will be a greater chance for low cloud tomorrow.  
Forecast low-level stability is sufficiently low to indicate that there will
be slight to moderate vertical development of the clouds (read, cumulus).

48-Hour Forecast:

12z 24 Oct - 00z 25 Oct:  Scattered to broken cirrus and occasional altostratus
expected with the most extensive cloud cover likely to the northwest.
Surface winds light northwest shifting to southwest to 3 - 7 m/s.  Cool.

00z 25 Oct - 12z 25 Oct:  Scattered high clouds and cool.  Light winds.

12z 25 Oct - 12z 26 Oct:  Continued chance for high cloudiness with scattered
cumulus developing in the late morning or early afternoon.  Warmer with
generally south winds to 9 m/s. 


Extended Range Discussion:

Continued chance for scattered to broken clouds on Thursday, nothing extensive
expected.  Decreasing chance for cloud Thursday night through Saturday.

Syrett