FXUS62 KEYW 151324
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS 
SURROUNDING THE KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION 
ECHOES IN THE SERVICE AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY 
CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN 
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN 
THE MID 80S. ONLY ABOUT SEVEN DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY 
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.      

.SHORT TERM...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE KEYS TODAY. 
LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO 
ISLAND CUMULUS LINES DEVELOPING OVER THE KEYS TODAY. AS A RESULT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS 
HANDLED WELL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE 12Z KEYW SOUNDING 
IS TYPICALLY UNSTABLE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.63 
INCHES. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
SHOULD SUPPRESS THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES. IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD 
LINE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR 
TODAY...WHICH IS NEAR ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS. THE 
CURRENT ZONE FORECAST HANDLES THIS SITUATION WELL...SO NO UPDATES 
ARE EXPECTED. 

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONSTANT TODAY. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS ON ALL WATERS TODAY. THE CURRENT COASTAL 
WATERS FORECAST HANDLES THIS SITUATION WELL...SO VERY LITTLE WILL 
CHANGE IN THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. 

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE NEAR 5 KNOTS OR BELOW OVER THE 
KEYW-KMIA AVIATION ROUTE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGH 10K 
FEET WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND 
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. OVER THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE 
WATERS...EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS 
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEATING OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. 
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED 
OVER THE AVIATION ROUTE FROM KEYW TO THE MAINLAND COASTLINE.

&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS