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WASHINGTON D.C. -- Congresswoman Jane Harman (D-Venice), Chair of the Intelligence Subcommittee of the Homeland Security Committee, today delivered a keynote address at a New America Foundation forum titled US-Iran Relations: Collision, Stand-Off, or Convergence? Below are her remarks, as prepared:
Iran is extremely dangerous. Their highly developed indigenous missile capability can hit Israel in a matter of minutes and parts of Europe (Turkey) as well as Russia. With a developing nuclear capability, most intelligence analysts believe it could produce a bomb by the end of the decade. They are a sponsor of an A-List international terror organization - Hezbollah - which has worldwide reach and most recently provoked a war with Israel. Hezbollah soldiers in that war were trained and equipped by Iran.
Iran recently meddled in Lebanon - where Hezbollah is destabilizing the Siniora government, and in Iraq - where Iranian-made EFPs (Explosively Formed Projectiles) have been used for several years, and there is some information that al Quds fighters are also present there.
But although Iran is decidedly dangerous, the policy question is what to do about it. The recently declassified summary of the second Iraq NIE made clear that Iran's influence in Iraq "is not likely to be a driver of violence." If this is so, why did the Bush Administration roll out old information (from unidentified senior officials) over the weekend about Iran's activity in Iraq?
Possibly to distract attention from the daily suicide bombings and mass carnage? Or, perhaps, to provoke Iran into actions that could justify retaliation? Surely that is a fair question - and many speculate that there are plenty of neo-cons who want to take action.
The information itself has provoked controversy about whether, as claimed, the Iranian government is involved. I won't reveal classified information, but it is reported today that [Chairman of the Joints Chiefs General] Pete Pace is not ready to conclude that Iran's top leaders are behind the attacks.
Rather than attack Iran about Iraq - a subject which plays to our weakness - we should go after Iran where we are strong and it is weak: economic sanctions.
Sanctions are working - some major international banks have cut Iran off, and its economy is suffering. But, the Iran Sanctions Act is not being fully enforced - the US should refuse to do business with subsidiaries that still do business with Iran. An op-ed in yesterday's Washington Post listed many of these.
Countries like Russia which have transferred missile technology and continue to aid Iran should be told they are putting their WTO status at risk. Europe continues to trade although the EU has agreed to sanctions. Royal Dutch Shell just signed a $12 billion agreement to aid Iranian refineries. China and India still trade with Iran. A good play there would be for the Saudis, who fear Iranian hegemony, to force them to choose between Saudi oil and trade with Iran.
The bottom line is we need to expand sanctions, not saber-rattling. Teddy Roosevelt said, "speak softly and carry a big stick." Saban Center Research Director Ken Pollack worries we may "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."
I also do not favor taking military force off the table - but we must require authorization by Congress. Our military is depleted and over-stretched. Our country is divided. Inserting Congress will assure we comply with our Constitution and prevent rogue action by this Administration or any future one. But there may be a time when we will have to act. Congress acted in a day following Pearl Harbor. I would fly to Washington, DC at a moment's notice to pass a war resolution if the circumstances justified it.
A nuclear Iran will threaten US interests as well as world security, and we must adopt effective strategies to prevent it. Israel's Deputy Minister of Defense Ephraim Sneh explains the effect simply possessing the bomb would have on our democratic ally in the region, Israel: peace negotiations would end, Israel's military options to defense itself would be limited, and foreign investors would flee.
And I believe an Iranian nuclear capability would start a Middle East arms race - Egypt and Saudi Arabia have made that clear. We have evidence that our economic and diplomatic strategies are working - so we should expand them and reject needless saber-rattling that will undercut them.
Most observers believe Iran's internal economy and political situation are increasingly fragile. Today's bombing in Tehran was carried out by its own ethnic Baloch minority, who see themselves as heirs of an ancient tradition distinct from ethnic Persians. They identify with a larger community in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and with Sunni Islam.
And this week's nuclear deal with North Korea, while imperfect, is a very welcome outcome.
The sun and moon may be aligned to do something even better in Iran - if we keep our policy focused and disciplined.
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