A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

Growth of College

The first point made by the critics is that people have come to believe that most or all high school graduates should go to college. Stanfield (1997), for example, observes that 96 percent of teenagers polled by the Public Agenda Foundation said that going to college was "important." This finding is certainly relevant, but it doesn't tell us how expectations have changed over the years or what kind of institution students have in mind when they refer to "college."

Data from three longitudinal surveys conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) enable us to address these questions. The data, based on nationally representative samples of high school seniors, are drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of 1972 (NLS72); High School and Beyond (HSB), the 1980 Senior Cohort; and the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS), Second Followup, 1992. Table 1 shows (a) the percentage all seniors in 1972, 1980, and 1992 who expected to complete various levels of education, (b) the percentage who planned to contin Postsecondary educational expectations, plans, and enrollments of high school seniors a. Percent of all seniors who expected to attain various levels of education postsecondary education in the following year, and (c) the percentage of high school graduates in 1973, 1981, and 1993 who enrolled in the following year.²²

Part "a" of the table shows that 95 percent of 1992 seniors expected to finish at least some college?virtually the same as the proportion of teenagers in the Public Agenda poll who said college was important. This NCES finding represented an increase from 1972, when 81 percent said they intended to finish at least some college. Even then, the great majority of high school seniors saw college in their future. However, smaller proportions expected to attain at least a 4-year degree. In 1972, 50 percent of the seniors said they expected to get a bachelor's degree or a graduate degree. In 1992, 69 percent of the seniors said so. The increase in those expecting to earn a bachelor's degree or higher was accounted for entirely by the increase in seniors expecting a graduate degree, from 13 percent in 1972 to 33 percent in 1992. In general, as the "% change" column shows, there was a net upward shift across levels of expected educational attainment over this period.²³

It is one thing for seniors to have general expectations about finishing college and another to have plans to enroll in the immediate future. Part "b" of the table shows the proportion of high school seniors planning to continue their education the following fall. In 1992, some 73 percent planned to enroll in a 2-year or 4-year college in the fall. This represented a substantial increase from 1972, when half of the seniors had such plans. Over the same period, those planning to attend 4-year schools increased from 34 percent to 54 percent. In general, as in part "a," there was net upward shift in plans for postsecondary education over this period. Between 1972 and 1992, the proportion planning to attend trade or technical school fell 60 percent, while the proportion planning to enter a 4-year college increased 61 percent.

To what extent are these plans realized? Part "c" of the table shows the proportion of youth graduating from high school in the 12 months preceding October 1973 (1981, 1993) who were enrolled in 2-year or 4-year colleges that October. In 1993, only 39 percent of graduating seniors actually enrolled in a 4-year college the October following graduation, a modest increase from 32 percent in 1973. A comparison of Parts "b" and "c" of the table suggests (but does not demonstrate²⁴) that the gap between plans to attend a 4-year college and actual attendance grew over this period. In 1972?73, the difference was only 1.9 percent (33.6 percent vs. 31.7 percent). By 1980?81, the gap had increased to 4.8 percent, and by 1992?93, to 14.9 percent. We do not know why the apparent disparity between plans and enrollments increased, but one reason may be that many high school seniors, thinking they are expected to go to college, answer questions about their plans by giving what they consider the desired response. Some are unable to carry out their plans for 4-year college and go to community college instead. Between 1973 and 1993, the October enrollment growth in 2-year colleges for recent high school graduates was about twice that of enrollment growth in 4-year colleges.

Changes in high school guidance counseling may have contributed to the rising expectations about college and to the growing gap between expectations and outcomes. As Rosenbaum et al. (1996) and Rosenbaum (1998) point out, counselors acted as gatekeepers in the 1960s, restricting the flow of high school graduates into college. Criticism of this gatekeeping role and the expansion of community colleges led counselors to change their approach, the authors believe. In 27 interviews in the Chicago area, they found that counselors do not like giving low-achieving students bad news about their future prospects, do not think they have the authority to do so, and instead advocate "college for all." Students of limited ability are encouraged to enter community colleges and possibly transfer to 4-year schools to earn their bachelor's degrees. However, Rosenbaum observes, their subsequent performance in community college is poor, on average, and they tend to drop out after a while.

Statistical evidence supports Rosenbaum's argument about changes in high school counseling. Gray and Herr (1996) reported that in 1982, 32 percent of the seniors in the High School and Beyond Survey²⁵ said their guidance counselors urged them to go to college. In 1992, more than twice as many seniors in the National Educational Longitudinal Survey—66 percent—said their counselors urged them to do so. Even among seniors in the bottom half of academic rankings, 57 percent said their counselors recommended college.

In sum, there is among high school students a generalized expectation of "college for all," if by "college" we mean either a 2-year or 4-year institution. If we limit ourselves to 4-year schools, a substantial majority of seniors (69 percent) have a general expectation that they will attain bachelor's degrees. If we limit our scope to plans to attend a 4-year college in the immediate future, we find that 54 percent of high school seniors had such plans in 1992. The proportion of recent high school graduates who actually enrolled in a 4-year college was smaller still (39 percent). The gap between 4-year college plans and enrollments seems to have increased between 1972 and 1992, and community colleges probably absorbed some of those with unrealistic plans. In general, the data are consistent with the critics' contention that expectations about college are outrunning students' abilities and/or interest in attending, although other explanations are possible.

Introduction

Changes in Ability Levels