HDR1012000110080512951500POTATO STOCKS HDR2012000110080512951500PSTK HIGHLIGHTS Released May 12, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent Potato stocks totaled 81.5 million cwt on May 1, 1995, up 10 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago. May stocks include considerably more seed than would normally be on hand because of late planting in many States. Disappearance for the season is a record high 319 million cwt of potatoes, 6 percent above last year and 9 percent above 1993. Shrink and loss of 30.9 million cwt was 8 percent above a year ago. Processors used a record high 152 million cwt of potatoes, up 8 percent for the season. April processing totaled 18.4 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from a year earlier. For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Pot 1-2 (5-95) HDR2012000110080512951500FALL POTATOES:PROD & STKS, 15 MAJ STS, '85-94 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 343,984 235,475 202,800 171,510 138,720 104,540 65,380 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 400,385 263,630 229,350 196,005 163,305 123,285 81,495 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110080512951500POTATOES:QUANT. USED FOR PRCSNG, 8 STS '92-94 Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1992 : 22,180 29,080 35,710 42,800 50,090 57,090 80,570 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 : ME 2/ : 1992 : 1,195 1,630 2,205 2,720 3,390 4,020 5,055 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,510 1,840 2,275 2,535 2,975 3,330 : WA & OR-Other : 1992 : 26,840 31,550 35,950 41,670 46,530 51,630 63,510 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,690 33,500 39,120 46,070 52,900 59,550 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1992 : 7,140 9,220 11,265 13,305 15,550 17,555 25,070 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 8,790 12,045 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,585 : Total : 1992 : 57,355 71,480 85,130 100,495 115,560 130,295 174,205 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 65,610 81,615 98,330 115,590 133,705 152,145 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. HDR2012000110080512951500FALL POTATOES:PROD&STKS ON MAY 1, '94-95 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 1994-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1993 : Crop of 1994 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 1994 : Prod : : 1995 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,800 1,200 25 4,400 1,100 25 CO : 25,270 6,100 24 25,795 6,000 23 ID : 126,192 35,000 28 134,340 34,500 26 ME : 19,890 3,500 18 17,250 2,800 16 MI : 11,780 700 6 12,180 1,200 10 MN : 12,650 2,300 18 17,755 4,200 24 MT : 2,700 160 6 3,200 350 11 NE : 3,008 100 3 3,888 300 8 NY : Long Island : 1,643 1/ 1,617 1/ Upstate : 6,050 1/200 6,188 1/210 ND : 21,090 2,300 11 28,200 4,700 17 OH : 1,140 1/ 1,348 1/ OR : 23,103 5,400 23 25,784 6,800 26 PA : 4,600 100 2 3,780 135 4 WA : 88,500 13,500 15 88,920 17,000 19 WI : 22,588 3,300 15 25,740 2,200 9 : Total 15 State : 375,004 73,860 20 400,385 81,495 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. HDR2012000110080512951500PSTKS NARRATIVES Potato Stocks Up 10 Percent May 1, 1995, stocks totaled 81.5 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago. Stocks made up 20 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, the same as a year ago. Disappearance was 6 percent more than last year. Processor usage was up 8 percent. Shrinkage and loss was 8 percent above a year ago. Processing continued to move potatoes at a record high pace, accounting for 152 million cwt of potatoes from the 1994 crop, up 8 percent from the same period last year and 17 percent above two years ago. March processor usage was 18.4 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year ago and 25 percent above two years ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest through April totaled 319 million cwt of potatoes, up 6 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago. Shrinkage and loss was 30.9 million cwt, 8 percent above the 28.7 million cwt lost last year but 3 percent below the losses of two years ago. Eastern States stored 3.14 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1995, down 17 percent from last year and 36 percent below two years ago. Maine's stocks were down 20 percent. Pennsylvania and New York are virtually finished shipping for the season. Central States held 12.6 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1995. This is 45 percent above last year and 11 percent higher than two years ago. Wisconsin's stocks are off 33 percent but each of the other Central States held more than a year ago. North Dakota's May stocks were more than double last year, partly because of late planting and slow movement of seed. Minnesota's stocks were up 83 percent and Michigan's storage was up 71 percent from last year. Nebraska's season is nearly finished. Western States potato stocks totaled 65.8 million cwt in six States, up 7 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks of 34.5 million cwt, were down 1 percent from a year ago, and made up 52 percent of the Western total. Colorado was off 2 percent from last year. Washington's stocks of 17.0 million cwt and Oregon's stocks of 6.8 million cwt, were each up 26 percent. Montana's stocks at the end of their seed season were more than twice the May 1 level a year ago. California's stocks were off 8 percent. Changes in Summer and Fall Potato Estimates Acreage, yield, and production estimates of "summer" and "fall" potatoes will be combined into the "fall" season for Michigan and Minnesota beginning in 1995. Eliminating "summer" potatoes in these two States will shift about 20,000 acres from the "summer" season to the "fall" season estimates. The first estimates of summer acreage, published in the "Acreage" report issued June 30, will exclude these two States. Stocks reports, starting in December 1995, will include potatoes from these former "summer" areas. Additionally, potato estimates for Long Island and Upstate New York will be combined in an "All" New York estimate. The first estimate of fall potato acreage is included in the July "Crop Production" report. These changes will provide estimates that more accurately reflect current marketing and production patterns. HDR2012000110080512951500RELIABILITY OF MAY 1 STKS ESTI. NARRATIVE Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 8.4 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 81.5 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.4 percent or approximately 6.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.5 percent or approximately 11.8 million cwt. The 10-year 1985-94 record of the differences between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates average 4.0 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million cwt to 11.5 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years. HDR2012000110080512951500PREL. & FNL MAY STKS, US, '84-94 Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May Stocks, United States, 1984-94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1984 : 51,575 98.3 52,465 1985 : 63,380 96.9 65,380 1986 : 57,040 95.4 59,790 1987 : 71,640 102.3 70,030 1988 : 54,390 91.6 59,355 1989 : 50,125 98.9 50,675 1990 : 54,400 86.3 63,040 1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 92.1 73,860 1994 : 81,495 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potatoes" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. HDR2012000110080512951500NXT RLSE DATE & EEO STMNT The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on December 15, 1995. *********************** The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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