Table 10. Growth factors from the NRG U.S. Lower 48 Fields Monotone - 1998 model "(E.D. Attanasi, written commun., 2001)." "Multipliers, for Forecasts" Years Since Discovery Annual Oil Factors Annual Gas Factors Cumulative Oil Factors Cumulative Gas Factors 30-Year Oil 30-Year Gas 80-Year Oil 80-Year Gas 0 2.62760 1.89830 1.00000 1.00000 7.72740 7.57200 11.18960 11.73370 1 1.40569 1.37302 2.62760 1.89830 2.97096 4.07054 4.28292 6.19781 2 1.14268 1.15205 3.69360 2.60640 2.13518 3.02536 3.06433 4.52620 3 1.09937 1.09725 4.22060 3.00270 1.88774 2.67985 2.69708 3.93942 4 1.03315 1.07907 4.64000 3.29470 1.73470 2.47564 2.46737 3.59996 5 1.03315 1.07910 4.79380 3.55520 1.69625 2.32015 2.40194 3.34521 6 1.03317 1.06342 4.95270 3.83640 1.65865 2.17436 2.33820 3.10838 7 1.03314 1.04696 5.11700 4.07970 1.62185 2.06777 2.27612 2.93088 8 1.03316 1.04696 5.28660 4.27130 1.58590 1.99733 2.21573 2.80697 9 1.03316 1.04696 5.46190 4.47190 1.54942 1.92929 2.15694 2.68830 10 1.03316 1.03291 5.64300 4.68190 1.51276 1.86356 2.09970 2.57464 11 1.03316 1.03292 5.83010 4.83600 1.47697 1.82455 2.04398 2.49932 12 1.02789 1.03069 6.02340 4.99520 1.44203 1.78259 1.98974 2.42621 13 1.02684 1.03071 6.19140 5.14850 1.41511 1.74536 1.94685 2.36032 14 1.01996 1.03070 6.35760 5.30660 1.39012 1.70887 1.90684 2.29618 15 1.01423 1.02618 6.48450 5.46950 1.37479 1.67317 1.88025 2.23381 16 1.01425 1.02580 6.57680 5.61270 1.36731 1.64543 1.86451 2.18268 17 1.01424 1.02581 6.67050 5.75750 1.35984 1.61874 1.84886 2.12778 18 1.01425 1.02579 6.76550 5.90610 1.35242 1.59247 1.82290 2.07425 19 1.01092 1.02048 6.86190 6.05840 1.34504 1.56665 1.79729 2.02210 20 1.01091 1.02048 6.93680 6.18250 1.34210 1.54928 1.77788 1.98151 21 1.01092 1.02048 7.01250 6.30910 1.33918 1.53210 1.75869 1.94175 22 1.01092 1.02049 7.08910 6.43830 1.33623 1.51512 1.73968 1.90278 23 1.01091 1.02047 7.16650 6.57020 1.33331 1.49830 1.72090 1.86459 24 1.01092 1.02048 7.24470 6.70470 1.33042 1.48169 1.70232 1.82718 25 1.01092 1.02049 7.32380 6.84200 1.32418 1.46527 1.68393 1.79051 26 1.01091 1.02048 7.40380 6.98220 1.31738 1.44900 1.66574 1.75456 27 1.01093 1.02048 7.48460 7.12520 1.31064 1.43293 1.64776 1.71935 28 1.01092 1.02048 7.56640 7.27110 1.30391 1.41705 1.62994 1.68485 29 1.01025 1.02049 7.64900 7.42000 1.29723 1.40133 1.61234 1.65104 30 1.01024 1.02048 7.72740 7.57200 1.29143 1.38579 1.59598 1.61789 31 1.01025 1.02047 7.80650 7.72710 1.28569 1.37041 1.57981 1.58542 32 1.01026 1.02048 7.88650 7.88530 1.27995 1.35522 1.56379 1.55361 33 1.01024 1.01363 7.96740 8.04680 1.27423 1.34018 1.54791 1.52243 34 1.01025 1.01129 8.04900 8.15650 1.26854 1.33429 1.53222 1.50196 35 1.01024 1.01129 8.13150 8.24860 1.26288 1.32877 1.51667 1.48519 36 1.01025 1.01129 8.21480 8.34170 1.25726 1.32329 1.50129 1.46861 37 1.01024 1.01130 8.29900 8.43590 1.25163 1.31782 1.48606 1.45221 38 1.00940 1.01130 8.38400 8.53120 1.24605 1.30910 1.47099 1.43599 39 1.00871 1.01129 8.46280 8.62760 1.24154 1.30042 1.45730 1.41994 40 1.00872 1.01129 8.53650 8.72500 1.23788 1.29183 1.44471 1.40409 41 1.00871 1.00917 8.61090 8.82350 1.23423 1.28328 1.43223 1.38842 42 1.00870 1.00916 8.68590 8.90440 1.23059 1.27747 1.41986 1.37580 43 1.00871 1.00916 8.76150 8.98600 1.22698 1.27169 1.40761 1.36331 44 1.00871 1.00916 8.83780 9.06830 1.22337 1.26595 1.39546 1.35094 45 1.00872 1.00917 8.91480 9.15140 1.21976 1.26022 1.38341 1.33867 46 1.00871 1.00916 8.99250 9.23530 1.21616 1.25452 1.37145 1.32651 47 1.00871 1.00916 9.07080 9.31990 1.21258 1.24885 1.35962 1.31447 48 1.00871 1.00915 9.14980 9.40530 1.20901 1.24085 1.34788 1.30253 49 1.00871 1.00917 9.22950 9.49140 1.20545 1.23292 1.33624 1.29072 50 1.00871 1.00917 9.30990 9.57840 1.20190 1.22502 1.32470 1.27899 51 1.00870 1.00917 9.39100 9.66620 1.19836 1.21716 1.31326 1.26737 52 1.00871 1.00915 9.47270 9.75480 1.19484 1.20936 1.30193 1.25586 53 1.00872 1.00916 9.55520 9.84410 1.19132 1.20162 1.29069 1.24447 54 1.00617 1.00917 9.63850 9.93430 1.18780 1.19392 1.27954 1.23317 55 1.00573 1.00916 9.69800 10.02540 1.18730 1.18628 1.27168 1.22197 56 1.00574 1.00916 9.75360 10.11720 1.18729 1.17869 1.26444 1.21088 57 1.00574 1.00917 9.80960 10.20990 1.18730 1.17113 1.25722 1.19988 58 1.00574 1.00916 9.86590 10.30350 1.18729 1.16362 1.25004 1.18898 59 1.00573 1.00917 9.92250 10.39790 1.18730 1.15618 1.24291 1.17819 60 1.00574 1.00916 9.97940 10.49320 1.18731 1.14876 1.23583 1.16749 61 1.00574 1.00916 10.03670 10.58930 1.18730 1.14141 1.22877 1.15689 62 1.00575 1.00916 10.09430 10.68630 1.18730 1.13411 1.22176 1.14639 63 1.00573 1.00917 10.15230 10.78420 1.18729 1.12684 1.21478 1.13599 64 1.00574 1.00711 10.21050 10.88310 1.18730 1.11962 1.20785 1.12566 65 1.00575 1.00712 10.26910 10.96050 1.18730 1.11471 1.20096 1.11771 66 1.00573 1.00711 10.32810 11.03850 1.18729 1.10982 1.19410 1.10982 67 1.00574 1.00461 10.38730 11.11700 1.18730 1.10198 1.18730 1.10198 68 1.00574 1.00459 10.44690 11.16820 1.18052 1.09693 1.18052 1.09693 69 1.00574 1.00461 10.50690 11.21950 1.17378 1.09191 1.17378 1.09191 70 1.00573 1.00460 10.56720 11.27120 1.16708 1.08690 1.16708 1.08690 71 1.00574 1.00460 10.62780 11.32300 1.16043 1.08193 1.16043 1.08193 72 1.00574 1.00460 10.68880 11.37510 1.15381 1.07698 1.15381 1.07698 73 1.00574 1.00460 10.75020 11.42740 1.14722 1.07205 1.14722 1.07205 74 1.00573 1.00460 10.81190 11.48000 1.14067 1.06713 1.14067 1.06713 75 1.00574 1.00460 10.87390 11.53280 1.13417 1.06225 1.13417 1.06225 76 1.00574 1.00460 10.93630 11.58590 1.12769 1.05738 1.12769 1.05738 77 1.00574 1.00270 10.99910 11.63920 1.12126 1.05254 1.12126 1.05254 78 1.00574 1.00270 11.06220 11.67060 1.11486 1.04971 1.11486 1.04971 79 1.00574 1.00270 11.12570 11.70210 1.10850 1.04688 1.10850 1.04688 80 1.00574 1.00269 11.18960 11.73370 1.10217 1.04406 1.10217 1.04406 81 1.00574 1.00270 11.25380 11.76530 1.09588 1.04126 1.09588 1.04126 82 1.00573 1.00270 11.31840 11.79710 1.08962 1.03845 1.08962 1.03845 83 1.00574 1.00270 11.38330 11.82890 1.08341 1.03566 1.08341 1.03566 84 1.00575 1.00271 11.44860 11.86080 1.07723 1.03287 1.07723 1.03287 85 1.00573 1.00270 11.51440 11.89290 1.07108 1.03009 1.07108 1.03009 86 1.00574 1.00269 11.58040 11.92500 1.06497 1.02731 1.06497 1.02731 87 1.00574 1.00270 11.64690 11.95710 1.05889 1.02455 1.05889 1.02455 88 1.00575 1.00270 11.71370 11.98940 1.05285 1.02179 1.05285 1.02179 89 1.00574 1.00270 11.78100 12.02180 1.04684 1.01904 1.04684 1.01904 90 1.00574 1.00270 11.84860 12.05420 1.04087 1.01630 1.04087 1.01630 91 1.00574 1.00271 11.91660 12.08670 1.03493 1.01357 1.03493 1.01357 92 1.00573 1.00270 11.98500 12.11940 1.02902 1.01083 1.02902 1.01083 93 1.00574 1.00270 12.05370 12.15210 1.02315 1.00811 1.02315 1.00811 94 1.00574 1.00270 12.12290 12.18490 1.01731 1.00540 1.01731 1.00540 95 1.00574 1.00269 12.19250 12.21780 1.01151 1.00269 1.01151 1.00269 96 1.00573 1.00000 12.26250 12.25070 1.00573 1.00000 1.00573 1.00000 97 1.00000 1.00000 12.33280 12.25070 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 98 1.00000 1.00000 12.33280 12.25070 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 99 1.00000 1.00000 12.33280 12.25070 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 100 1.00000 1.00000 12.33280 12.25070 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000