Subject: RE: profiler project Date: Mon, 9 Sep 2002 15:10:15 -0600 From: "Stan Benjamin" Reply-To: To: "Cecilia Girz" , CC: , , , , , , Cec and Steve, Here is some more information on the profiler impact work that can supplement the write-up you sent out today, Cec. Here are 4 verification times already determined from the RUC profiler experiments that Barry did as having quite high impact (statistically, on wind forecasts within the profiler area verification rectangle) from the profiler data. I don't know what the synoptic situations looks like, but I am fairly certain that the cases need to be selected from these times. 0103512 - 300-200 mb >>>>>>>>4 Feb 01 0103612 - 850-400 mb >>>>>>>>5 Feb 01 0104212 - >>>>>>>>11 Feb 01 0104412 >>>>>>>>13 Feb 01 I anticipate that to do the cases properly, it will be necessary to do a considerable amount of plotting of difference fields, both of forecast differences as well as analysis increments (analysis-minus-1h fcst) showing where the background forecasts (1h fcsts) were most significantly modified by the profiler data. I think it may be necessary to show vertical cross-sections, not just of fields but of difference fields. There is an NCAR-graphics-based color-fill plotting program that we have developed over the years that can do most of these things -- it is called plotfield. It may be useful to compare the NCL plotting capability with plotfield. Use of plotfield can be taught to a new person. Even though the experiments are performed with the 20km RUC, for most of these plots, 40km data may be adequate. It would be useful to know if there were significant weather impacts on some public or economic activity in any of the above cases, in the Midwest or west of the Appalachians -- if so, that would be the kind of case to look at more closely to see if there was an important 'real weather' impact from the profiler data. I think it will take some careful investigation to link forecast improvements with minimal ambiguity to the profiler data -- there will be some false leads, and due to aliasing, some confusing behavior. I am still optimistic that we can get a convincing case, but it will require some digging. I would like to be a consultant as the work proceeds. Thanks. Stan ____________________________________________ Stan Benjamin benjamin@fsl.noaa.gov NOAA Forecast Systems Lab 303-497-6387 - phone Chief, Regional Analysis and 303-497-4176 - fax Prediction Branch http://ruc.fsl.noaa.gov 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305-3328 USA > -----Original Message----- > From: Cecilia Girz [mailto:cecilia.girz@fsl.noaa.gov] > Sent: Monday, September 09, 2002 11:21 AM > To: koch@fsl.noaa.gov > Cc: schwartz@fsl.noaa.gov; jamison@fsl.noaa.gov; collander@fsl.noaa.gov; > ackley@fsl.noaa.gov; benjamin@fsl.noaa.gov; szoke@fsl.noaa.gov; > mcginley@fsl.noaa.gov; bjohnson@fsl.noaa.gov > Subject: profiler project > > > Steve, > > Barry, Brian, Randy and I met this morning to firm up plans for the > profiler impact assessment. I also spoke with Ed Szoke after > Barry reminded me of his role. > > Here's what we came up with in terms of what's already done, what's > planned, who will do what, and when. > > We did not talk about how many hours will be involved, but I suggest > that there be > > 4 weeks for > Brian's displays > Randy's web page > Ed's case selection > Ed't meteorological interpretation > > 8 weeks for > Barry to run additional permutations > Barry to select cases > Barry to provide interpretation > > We're looking to you for guidance on what project number to charge. > > > Barry > What's done: > - Profiler data denial runs with RUC20 for 4 - 15 (?) Feb. 2001 > - Statistics for these runs > Plans: > - Choose cases from this period based on > o the RUC statistics > o Seth Gutman's GPS PW info for this period > o plots of synoptic data from the NCDC CDs > - Look into other cases (e.g, the dates Steve indicated) > When: > Barry is currently running additional data-denial permutations. > He'll start looking into whether there are any good cases in the > 4-15 Feb. 2001 period. > > Brian > What's done: > - NDL code to display RUC20 data > - For MDSS, NCL code that displays surface T, precip, winds for MM5 > & Avn > - Code to automatically generate these products (may not be needed). > Plans: > - Determine parameters & levels to plot (with Barry) > - Create displays > When: > Brian has 30 Sept. deadlines for MDSS and FAA/Aviation projects. > He can start working on this assessment after 1 Oct. > > Randy > What's done: > - Code to display (& archive) MDSS products on a web page > - Code to automatically generate the products for web page display > (may not be needed). > Plans: > - Modify current code to work for this project > - Create displays > When: > Randy has 30 Sept. deadlines for MDSS and he is tied up with writing > and presenting a paper at the COSPAR through 17 Oct. > He can start working on this assessment the week of 21 Oct.. > > Ed Szoke > Plans: > - Suggest possible cases from a forecaster's perspecitve > - Provide meteorological interpretation of results (in conjunction > with Barry) > When: > Ed has 30 Sept. deadlines for the FAA project. (And maybe Sept. > deadlines on other projects as well--I didn't ask.) > He asked me about a couple of possible cases, so he has some in mind > already. He thinks he can start to look at the cases with Barry after > the FAA deliveralbe is written, if Barry is ready to do so. > > Cec > > ********************************************************************** > Cecilia M.I.R. Girz Phone: 303-497-6830 > Forecast Systems Laboratory R/FS1 Fax: 303-497-3329 > 325 Broadway email: cecilia.girz@noaa.gov > Boulder, Colorado 80305-3328 web: http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/~girz > **********************************************************************