FXUS04 KWBC 080632 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 08/1200 UTC THRU JUN 09/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR PRELIM DAY 1... SRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX SPREADING INTO PARTS OF ERN OK AS DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD FROM THE WRN GULF AROUND UPR RIDGE. WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DVLPMENT OF AN UPR LVL CIRC NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD N TX BY 00Z. ETA SEEMS TO DEPICT THIS FEATURE BEST AS DOES THE UKMET..WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO GET CONTAMINATED BY FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. WHILE THE ETA MASS FIELD IS PREFERRED THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE IMPRESSIVE MSTR WITH OVER 2.25 INCHES REPORTED OVER S TX AT 00Z. LIKELY TO SEE ONE ORGANIZED AREA OF TSTMS DVLP OVER S TX THEN LIFT NNEWD AHEAD OF MID LEVEL VORT. WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SHIFT LITTLE..WE MAY SEE ANOTHER AREA OF STG STORMS REPEA LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT OVER S TX. THE VERY HIGH PWS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT TO THE LOW LEVEL JET ARGUES FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH GENL 2 TO 3 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF E TX INTO PARTS OF SE OK. SE U.S... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAPPED UNDER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE TO THE SRN APLCNS WHERE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN THE ERN SLOPE OF THE MTNS..COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE GFS AND ETA ARE SURPRISING CLOSE HERE..SO GENLY WENT WITH A BLEND IN MODEL QPFS. PAC NW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER ACRS THE PAC NW ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR OREGON AS DVLPG DEFORMATION PCPN BAND TO THE NORTH OF MID LEVEL CIRC INTIALLY OVER OREGON SLOWS BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS THE AREA AS SIGNIFICANT JET AND ASSOCD VORT DIVE SEWD ALONG THE COAST INTO CA. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE ERN SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PICKING UP SOME FAIRLY DECENT RAINS ON THE ORDER OF .50 TO 1 INCH PLUS. WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS HANDING OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROF GIVEN ITS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET/CAN. ...N CNTRL U.S./UPR MS VALLEY.. THE MODELS SHOW SOME SIMILARITY TO THE HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPCED TO WORK SEWD ACRS THE GT LAKES INTO UPR MS VALLEY..WHILE SLOWING ON THE SRN END ACRS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND IA. BAND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EWD THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY BUT AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND HELPS TO DRAWN DEEPER MSTR INTO THE BNDRY...EXPECT THIS INCREASE IN MSTR AND INSTABILITY TO FUEL ADDTIONAL TSTM DVLPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BNDRY. THE MM5 AND BOTH CANADIAN MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS AND ETA. WHILE NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CANADIAN..WITH 1.75 INCH PWS POOLING NEAR THE FRONT TUE NIGHT..ADJUSTED TOWARD THE WETTER SOLNS. SULLIVAN GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 09/12Z 0.01 490661 488657 483652 479650 475649 472651 470656 469669 466680 465683 463684 461684 459686 457689 454700 451709 449720 446731 444744 439783 435806 430828 425845 418864 414873 414877 415884 416892 415897 411910 408918 406927 404936 405950 410979 410988 409994 408007 407018 408023 411027 417032 423035 432039 435041 438045 443055 450064 452067 453072 456073 458070 460066 461057 462047 462038 461035 458022 455007 453993 455985 460976 463968 466957 473935 477922 480910 481904 481900 482893 482886 481874 478866 478861 479855 483843 485831 483816 482810 480808 470812 467810 466808 466803 467790 466777 466773 467768 469766 471762 474757 477744 482723 485703 490678 491668 490661 0.01 489139 488132 483128 477124 475122 474119 475116 475111 474106 469103 461112 457115 458105 455097 452094 447093 442094 436096 434102 435108 439113 446117 457118 456127 452133 449135 446135 442133 439132 433134 430140 433147 435152 436159 437173 438178 437183 434192 432190 431186 427183 423183 421186 419190 415196 410199 398197 384193 379190 373189 373194 376199 395217 399220 402225 398230 396237 400243 406245 420247 432249 439243 446242 452240 457239 458236 455234 456231 460228 465225 469222 473217 473209 471205 469203 466200 466196 470186 472177 475171 480162 485152 488144 489139 0.01 393791 390786 387784 383785 371794 366794 362791 359781 359765 359756 355752 354747 354742 352736 348731 343730 338731 333735 330741 330749 329773 329786 328789 324793 320796 316797 309797 299800 293801 287801 276797 266794 262793 256794 250798 247803 246808 245815 248819 252824 258831 266839 271842 277844 281848 285852 290861 295875 298882 303885 309882 316883 321884 327881 334872 337865 340863 344863 366862 376852 379845 381837 382825 384819 386814 392799 393791 0.01 397922 397917 396914 395909 392908 388907 381909 363918 353922 346924 341925 331925 321926 311926 301927 291929 282931 271936 264937 261939 249950 236964 233970 236978 242985 246987 251989 266993 275997 283001 291005 300008 303010 309010 317009 322006 326004 333000 368980 376974 382965 386956 388946 393930 397922 0.01 319091 320088 319085 316083 313082 312081 310081 307081 305081 303084 302088 302091 302094 304097 307097 310097 313097 316096 317095 318093 319091 0.25 469860 469855 467852 464853 459853 454850 451851 449855 443867 440872 438879 431904 428912 426919 423932 424940 425946 424952 421965 420980 420989 421996 425001 429000 439993 447983 454973 457968 459958 461945 466914 468906 469897 469879 469866 469860 0.25 463182 463176 462172 457168 451169 448171 448175 445188 442194 438203 433208 420213 419216 417221 417230 421233 426233 432231 444228 451223 454220 455216 454209 453201 457193 461186 463182 0.25 368810 367807 364804 357800 352794 347791 324813 320816 315818 307818 300817 295815 281809 272806 263807 259807 255809 257813 261817 268820 275825 284828 308839 309846 310852 314853 319852 325848 329846 334845 342847 352850 355853 359852 366847 369844 370840 369833 369818 368810 0.25 380933 379929 376928 366931 351934 342936 333938 326940 318940 312940 302941 287945 273950 261955 256959 250964 247968 247974 251978 258981 267984 280989 289996 294999 303999 318997 331991 338988 343986 349982 355977 364967 369963 375957 378952 380944 380933 0.50 465871 465866 464862 458861 456860 453862 451867 444876 441888 435911 432927 432932 431940 429953 426965 425972 426977 428984 431988 436988 441984 446977 449971 452965 454951 459925 462894 465871 0.50 460182 460177 458175 455173 451175 450188 447194 445202 437209 432213 426215 422217 421220 421224 426228 431228 442225 447221 450217 449200 456189 460182 0.50 359829 359821 357815 353812 350811 347810 343810 341811 333815 323821 316826 317830 321834 327835 337838 343841 347842 352841 358833 359829 0.50 373946 371939 367937 363937 352939 324946 299947 285950 272954 261960 257963 254967 254971 255973 261977 270982 281986 290992 296994 304994 318991 332987 342981 347977 353971 355967 360964 365960 371954 373946 1.00 453892 452890 449893 447899 444907 443913 441920 441928 439936 438943 434956 432963 433966 436968 439972 443970 444961 447953 448940 448935 449929 451923 454909 453892 1.00 443219 443217 440215 437216 435217 434219 431219 429219 430221 433221 436222 437221 439220 442220 443219 1.00 352825 352821 350821 347821 344822 342822 341822 338822 336823 334825 334829 337831 338832 341832 342833 344833 347834 350832 351829 352827 352825 1.00 368950 366946 361944 355943 350945 343948 336950 330951 306952 294952 283955 273958 268961 265963 263966 264970 268974 275978 291986 301989 309987 323984 331981 340973 346966 364955 368950 1.50 444949 443946 443945 442946 440948 439951 438953 437955 436959 435960 436960 439961 441959 442958 443954 444953 444949 1.50 361952 361948 358948 356948 353949 352950 353953 354954 356954 359953 361952 1.50 346958 341954 334954 319954 306955 296955 289957 276961 272964 271968 275973 286980 292983 298984 307984 314982 323980 328977 339970 343963 346958 2.00 340963 341959 338957 334956 326956 320957 308958 295958 283962 278966 280970 289976 293979 297981 305981 311980 319978 325975 333971 338967 340963 3.00 330964 329963 327961 326961 323960 321963 321965 321966 321967 324968 327967 329965 330964 $$