000
FXUS04 KWBC 052044
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
343 PM EST THU FEB 05 2009


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...WRN U.S...

THE MEAN TROF WL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST DAY 1...WITH THE
EMPHASIS FOR A CLOSED LOW IN THE MEAN OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
OVERALL..MODEL SOLNS DAY 1 ARE IN GOOD AGRMNT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CNTRL TO SRN CA COAST BEING KICKED
INLAND BY ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DIVING SWD OFF THE CA COAST AND INTO
THE MEAN CLOSED LOW PSN.  THE INITIAL INLAND MOVG CLOSED LOW AND
THE REFORMATION OF THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT INTO FRI WL KEEP
SUSTAINED SLY TO SWLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO A LARGE PORTION OF CA.
THIS WL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
REGIONS FROM FAR SWRN OR/NWRN CA...SWD ALONG THE COAST RANGE OF
CNTRL TO SRN CA...ACRS THE TRANSVERSE RANGE AND  INTO THE SRN
SIERRA.  FOR QPF DETAILS..THE 12 KM NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE
FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY.

LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RH WL INCREASE ACRS THE GTBASIN WITH THE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST.  PCPN
AMTS WL BE LIGHTER THAN UPSTREAM ALONG THE CA COAST GIVEN LOWER PW
VALUES AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE CLOSED LOW.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD WITH QPF TO THE EAST OF THE SRN SIERRA
INTO FAR ERN CA AND SRN NV.  A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW
.25-.50"+ AMTS HERE...WHILE OTHERS HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS IN THE
.10"+RANGE.  ATTM...WE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER TOTALS AS
THEY SEEMED OVERDONE...DEPICTING AMTS CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF.

WHILE THE CRUX OF THE NERN PAC HT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SWD
OFF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE MEAN CLOSED LOW PSN OFF THE SRN CA
COAST...SOME HT FALLS WL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES FRI. THIS WL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MDT PCPN AMTS IN THE
.10-.25"+ RANGE ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES

COASTAL SE FL...

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION
ACRS S FL AS THE SFC HIGH OVR THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI OVR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE FL.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF CONSENSUS OF AREAL AVG LIGHT PCPN
AMTS IN THESE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ELY FLOW RAINBANDS.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...WEST...
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND FOCUS
PRECIPITATION IN THE SAME AREAS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON DAY
3 WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. THE EC DEVELOPS
THE EPAC RIDGE A LITTLE BETTER AND MAINTAINS A MORE FOCUSED
TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG 140W AND A
BROADER TROUGH. THIS STRUCTURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INLAND MORE QUICKLY. LOOKING AT SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS THE TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE EC SOLUTION...SO THE MANUAL QPF
FOR DAY 3 WILL FAVOR THE EC MORE THAN THE GFS.

RELATED TO THIS STRUCTURE IS THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NW COAST TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF THE SW
CIRCULATION AHEAD OF IT...AND A TREND FOR THE LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US...GLFMEX-MN. IMPACT ON
QPF IS TO ACCEPT THE EC FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES RATHER THAN
THE GFS SOLUTION OF SPREADING QPF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
KS/NE.

SHORT STORY...GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 2...HEAVIEST QPF IN CA/NV AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AZ/UT.
LIGHT PCPN THROUT VCNTY OF GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

DAY 3...SLOWER TREND OF EC PREFERRED...HEAVIEST PCPN IN SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE PLAINNS LATER.
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CENTERED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ORAVEC/KELLY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 529204 529187 532173 528164 525162 525159 520154 512147
      506142 502139 484128 478127 471127 467138 450143 446140
      443135 443130 443125 449121 452118 461114 463110 463106
      460100 455099 451096 442091 437090 434090 433088 429084
      425083 421087 424093 424100 419102 416104 415099 412093
      408089 404087 404086 408082 412079 415076 417071 413059
      410056 404054 398055 394058 384062 378064 373061 369060
      365062 364066 365069 368073 373080 378090 385097 389101
      386109 377112 367116 361122 354128 352131 350136 352141
      355142 363142 366147 367150 357153 351154 348159 347163
      341161 330159 320161 311166 308170 312175 315183 319191
      327209 336225 346240 349243 355246 361249 366252 378258
      389261 399265 411267 417270 423272 432273 439273 443273
      455269 465270 468269 474271 485274 490278 496280 500279
      505275 513267 516259 516249 513237 510226 512222 515218
      522211 529204
 0.01 474840 474835 472830 469820 463809 458805 453801 451801
      447802 441807 437811 435814 435819 442833 451838 455840
      450847 439853 436859 436861 438863 439864 446863 452859
      463852 470847 474843 474840
 0.01 487197 488192 487191 486187 485187 482185 481182 480181
      477180 476181 476185 475189 474193 473197 472200 471201
      469205 471206 473206 474206 477204 480204 483201 485201
      487198 487197
 0.01 448765 448760 447756 444754 441754 438756 437758 436759
      435763 436767 437771 438775 441777 442777 445777 446775
      446773 447770 448766 448765
 0.01 433204 434200 434197 434193 432189 430187 427183 430177
      433173 434169 434163 431152 431144 430139 427139 424143
      423149 421154 415156 411156 406157 400157 394156 390157
      389163 386168 381174 378177 378181 380185 384189 387193
      390194 395197 398200 406207 408210 414212 418216 418224
      417228 420226 425216 433204
 0.01 275802 274798 271794 267792 259794 251797 245801 243808
      243815 244819 248818 249815 253811 260807 267805 274803
      275802
 0.25 478216 476214 473214 471214 472218 475218 478216
 0.25 461220 457217 451215 442216 437216 433218 428221 427225
      427231 422233 414231 413227 414219 412217 409216 402216
      398217 396214 394208 391204 386196 376188 373185 369183
      366181 360180 357183 357186 359191 361197 360200 356202
      354201 351197 348186 348180 346175 344168 341165 330164
      325164 321166 319169 319172 321178 330193 339212 346220
      351226 359232 369239 377244 388249 396253 407256 418256
      428256 436254 446250 450248 454243 454239 452236 451233
      452229 455226 460223 461220
 0.25 443109 435104 432104 424107 424112 421115 419116 414115
      409111 405111 400113 406119 414119 418120 421123 423127
      429122 434116 440112 443109
 0.50 449221 448220 445219 443219 442220 439221 436221 436222
      434225 435228 438228 440227 442225 445225 446224 448222
      449221
 0.50 440243 442240 440237 434237 425237 413235 408232 405233
      393231 389232 384233 384236 386241 394247 399249 405251
      416252 425251 433249 437247 440243
 0.50 384204 385200 384197 381194 373187 368183 362183 359185
      362190 366193 369198 370203 367208 357205 352202 349197
      347188 346175 344169 341166 328165 325169 324171 329180
      338199 343207 350214 358223 362225 368228 372227 375223
      376215 379210 384204
 1.00 426243 424241 421240 418239 416239 415239 415241 418243
      421243 424244 426243
 1.00 378196 378195 376194 375191 373190 371188 369186 368186
      365185 365187 365189 367191 370192 373194 374195 375195
      378196 378196
 1.00 364218 364217 361214 361213 359212 356211 355212 356213
      357216 358217 360218 363218 364218
 1.00 349204 348200 347194 346189 345185 344178 344173 341168
      337170 338176 338181 339185 341191 342195 343199 345204
      348205 349204

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 532735 530727 527719 521715 518714 514715 507716 493717
      487718 480719 470724 465726 461730 457739 453743 447739
      442737 439739 437742 432748 423766 415781 409795 403810
      395826 388841 383855 378871 376879 373888 367903 361918
      362923 361926 359931 358938 360940 363941 369939 375935
      379929 396924 404921 412917 418916 424916 428917 431919
      437923 442929 461950 463957 465965 469974 474979 481981
      490982 496982 502980 508975 515967 518963 521959 523953
      523950 525938 524924 524909 524900 526888 529877 531865
      533851 534840 533817 533810 533804 532794 533762 532735
 0.01 517176 519169 519162 516151 513141 510136 505131 497127
      493123 490121 488118 484112 482105 483096 482086 479085
      474090 470091 468089 463085 461082 460076 460062 459059
      455058 448060 438066 436069 438077 444086 444089 441091
      438091 434091 429085 424081 423079 423074 423069 422064
      418060 411056 402055 395056 384061 379065 375069 373075
      374079 376082 384090 386092 388096 390101 389105 387106
      380105 374108 365108 359111 352110 345100 340097 337102
      335109 332113 329115 321115 313115 306116 298121 288129
      280138 277146 277154 278160 280165 286175 292183 305201
      308205 314211 323218 346231 354234 362235 367233 372233
      375235 380237 386239 392238 395237 399235 403230 407222
      409214 408207 409197 409187 413180 416177 416170 417164
      421160 420142 422133 424127 425115 428114 433113 438114
      440117 442125 443143 446161 443169 440177 437189 436195
      435201 429199 427193 428188 426183 420189 420197 419202
      415209 412215 411232 414239 420244 424246 429246 433244
      436240 444231 450225 454220 458212 457206 454202 454199
      457193 465181 462173 456169 456164 458160 462161 469167
      481168 487173 492170 496168 498168 499168 507176 511180
      514180 517176
 0.01 432100 430096 430095 427092 425092 424090 421091 421092
      419095 420099 421100 422103 424104 426104 427104 429102
      432100
 0.01 266796 265791 263787 260782 257780 254782 250786 245789
      241794 234803 232816 229829 229836 229841 229845 233845
      237841 242836 247832 250826 251821 252814 255807 260803
      264800 266796
 0.25 502845 501834 498824 495817 491809 487804 482799 477798
      475799 472802 472807 471814 473832 474849 476860 479870
      482875 487878 492878 496881 499880 501877 501870 502861
      502850 502845
 0.25 403151 397138 395130 394127 391124 387119 383118 379118
      368122 363122 360121 354117 347114 340116 337122 332126
      328131 326138 328146 327151 325152 309152 303153 301156
      304162 306168 307172 310175 314180 322188 333199 342206
      360211 368212 373209 380208 386205 390200 393192 395183
      397172 399162 402155 403151
 0.50 387149 381137 380131 381126 380123 378124 374125 362130
      354127 351120 342123 338130 335136 336143 338150 343154
      350158 354163 358165 362164 368163 376165 380163 382159
      386153 387149
 0.50 373191 373187 371184 370183 368182 366180 363179 360179
      357179 356180 355184 356187 357187 359190 361192 362192
      364193 367194 369194 370193 373191
 0.50 352197 353193 351190 349183 348175 346168 343165 339164
      331163 326163 322164 320166 320171 324176 329181 331186
      336190 341195 345199 349199 352197
 1.00 371154 369152 368150 366148 363147 361146 360146 358148
      356149 358149 360151 361153 363154 366153 366154 369154
      371154

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 529242 516237 505230 490226 483225 477229 470236 467239
      462242 458245 454246 450245 448242 445237 441227 436223
      430220 424220 419221 416219 415215 414212 391194 385188
      394180 403177 410171 418163 421158 427151 435159 439155
      440151 440145 438140 433136 430132 430125 432120 437117
      443117 450119 453117 455108 453098 449094 440095 436095
      432094 426090 424091 424095 427099 425101 421103 420104
      419109 417111 415100 414094 416088 423079 430066 442048
      448039 452027 452019 451015 449010 443008 433006 428004
      423999 417988 413983 409978 399971 393968 390961 392947
      391934 392926 392919 394903 396877 397867 398859 400854
      402847 405845 408846 413846 419842 438827 442821 445822
      447826 453838 458840 462840 464842 469845 475848 479847
      485845 489842 492837 500826 503819 504811 505794 505787
      505779 504770 505764 503748 511690 510680 508672 508664
      505657 494646 489645 482644 473646 468654 461660 458659
      456660 453663 449664 446670 441675 439679 437681 429687
      419698 416703 413710 410722 405734 400743 395754 392768
      387781 382793 379806 376816 376820 377823 379823 381824
      382827 380832 376845 374854 371865 366890 364904 362916
      361920 361926 360933 361941 362949 364957 365962 364966
      358970 350978 347982 343989 336007 331018 324029 318036
      311042 296053 288056 276059 264059 253054 249053 244054
      243061 244069 245074 247081 250086 253089 257093 258097
      258109 258123 259137 257147 257152 259157 264164 262173
      262178 264182 272190 279196 284200 289202 293205 298206
      303207 310205 329199 332197 336199 338203 344210 347214
      354217 361219 362222 361228 358234 356239 353248 355254
      361260 371265 374268 380271 387274 393278 402283 415289
      423293 427299 433312 439323 447332 454339 463346 468349
      474351 482352
 0.01 410765 407767 406767 407769 410766 410765
 0.25 523257 513250 506248 501248 486246 477249 466256 459263
      455269 456274 458280 458286 454293 455300 458307 461312
      467317 475319 487322 499323
 0.25 481689 479683 477682 474684 473688 470697 469704 466713
      464717 461720 454725 448733 439747 435754 435757 435760
      437762 443762 448764 452765 455762 460754 468740 472733
      476724 478717 481709 482703 482698 481693 481689
 0.25 489756 489747 487739 484738 481740 479745 478750 476756
      475762 474771 475775 479777 482776 486773 489767 489761
      489756
 0.25 410072 411065 406061 404060 400061 394061 389062 383064
      375061 372059 366059 357063 351070 348073 345074 341072
      332069 327071 324074 321078 317080 313081 307082 302081
      299079 292074 288072 284071 278069 272070 268072 265075
      263078 262081 263084 270102 275109 282115 290119 295127
      301133 306135 311135 318129 324129 331132 345141 353145
      365150 369151 374151 381148 385144 387139 389132 388123
      385114 380105 378097 384090 399083 406079 410075 410072
 0.25 301161 301156 299151 297148 296145 293141 288139 283138
      277139 275142 274145 275149 277152 279155 282159 286162
      289164 294165 298164 301161
 0.50 522265 511259 504256 498255 487255 480256 475258 471261
      470265 473268 480270 482272 482276 473286 466296 464300
      469305 476306 481306 488307 493309 504313
 0.50 399072 395070 389072 387075 382072 378069 375067 372067
      370068 370075 372083 375085 381084 385083 385079 387076
      392077 395075 399072
 0.50 365139 365131 361127 357121 354117 351110 347106 340102
      336099 340093 341089 337084 333081 327082 321085 315086
      307086 301084 296082 285076 278075 271076 269081 271087
      271094 274099 277104 281109 287111 294112 302112 309113
      320108 326116 334125 339128 345131 351134 354138 357140
      362140 365139
 0.50 333102 332102 329101 329102 332102 333102
 1.00 288090 288087 287084 285083 283082 280083 277083 277084
      277086 277087 280089 281090 283091 285092 288090

$$