MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 141849Z - 142215Z
   
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
   MOVE EWD AFFECTING MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH 22Z. PRECIPITATION
   ACCUMULATION RATES OF .10 TO .20 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS MOVED RAPIDLY INTO
   ERN OK...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND ALVA OK TO
   MWL. MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLEET WITH AN
   OCCASIONAL MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN CNTRL OK. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATES MUCAPES OF AOB 500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN OK AND N-CNTRL TX
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL. AT 18Z...THE
   SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED FROM AROUND 20 W OF FYV TO NEAR
   DFW. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE JUST W OF
   THIS LINE...ALONG THE US-69 CORRIDOR IN ERN OK.
   
   MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS 850 TO 700 MB WINDS
   BECOME MORE WLY WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASES IN RH AND INTENSIFYING
   ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 01/14/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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   36539622 36799596 36939537 36739500 36579477 36199502
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