On August 2, 2002, Dr. Jesse Johnson of Logistics Management Institute (LMI) completed an OAT-sponsored study of the OAT capacity objective to triple the capacity of the aviation system by 2022. The purpose of the study was to determine the level of technology and system changes required to meet the Enterprise's stretch goals for the National Airspace System (NAS).

The study methodology relied on a computer model of scheduled air traffic at the top 102 airports that generate 94% of scheduled air carrier passenger traffic in the United States (U.S.). The first step was to create a flight schedule that would accommodate three times the passenger volume of the 1997 system. In contrast to today's hub-and-spoke system, nearly all passengers would be taken directly to their destinations, thereby providing better service and reducing the number of operations (takeoffs and landings) required.

The resulting flight schedule was compared to the future capacity of each airport, and several options were examined where the demand for flights exceeded the airport capacity. LMI estimated that future capacity at each airport could be increased by 22% with very aggressive technologies applied primarily to the approach and landing phase. Sixty of the 102 airports had a demand for flights that exceeded the capacity.

The next step distributed some flights to other nearby airports that would otherwise have excess capacity; this strategy fully alleviated the capacity problem at two of the airports and helped at six others.

Two alternatives were considered for the final step: distributing flights to additional airports and employing runway-independent aircraft. The first option extends service to some of the more than 4,000 of the nation's airports that currently have no scheduled air carrier service - however, many of these airports are general aviation airports, and instituting scheduled service could be controversial, technically and politically. The second option, short or vertical takeoff and landing (STOL or VTOL) aircraft operating independently of conventional air traffic, would further increase capacity at busy airports, but these aircraft would have to offer reasonable ticket prices and quality and reliability of service comparable to airline standards.

The study found that some routes had too few passengers to justify point-to-point flights, even with relatively small aircraft: accommodating the last three percent of the passengers with non-stop service would double the number of flights in the system. Therefore, the future system still retained a limited amount of hub-and-spoke traffic, but at a much lower level than the current system.

This effort indicates that increasing the efficiency of runway usage is one of the most effective steps to increase system capacity. Also, as air travel demand grows, more point-to-point flights become economically justifiable and improve service to travelers. Finally, the future system is likely to require efficient small aircraft for longer routes, more complex demands on the air traffic management system to accommodate a larger number of routes and airports, and, perhaps, a new generation of runway independent aircraft.

According to Jesse, "The next step will be to determine the sensitivity of the results to key assumptions, and to examine the implications of attempting to meet the mobility objective." Publication of results is expected when the study is concluded early in 2003.