FXUS65 KMSO 251626
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
925 AM MST THU NOV 25 2004

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE FLATHEAD VALLEY A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALSO EXPECT MOST PLACES HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  MADE THESE
CHANGES TO THE ZONES.  NO CHANGES NEEDED TO STATE FORECAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHALLENGING FORECAST
PACKAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SNOW LEVEL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 6000 FEET. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN EFFECT BUT IT WILL BE A SPRINT
FOR THE TAPE TO SEE IF THE SNOW LEVELS CAN FALL BELOW 6000 FEET
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION GENERALLY TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL...GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT..SO THINK SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY IS VERY REASONABLE. MADE
VERY MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS SLOWLY DRIES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND MAIN THREAT OF CONTINUE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AT THAT TIME.  MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR SATURDAY AS ETA IS DEPICTING ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH INCOMING TROUGH...WHILE GFS
IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WET.  LIKE THE GFS...AND WILL FOLLOW ITS IDEA
OF FOCUSING BEST PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER IDAHO AND EXTREME WESTERN
MONTANA...THEN SLOWLY DRYING THROUGH SUNDAY AS TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO THE VALLEYS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH RIDGING MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY WEAK SKIRTING SYSTEM. &&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY ABOVE 4500FT MTZ004...
     ...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY ABOVE 4500FT MTZ002...
     ...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY ABOVE 5000FT MTZ006-043...
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY ABOVE 5000FT IDZ005-006...

&&

$$
UPDATE/LAKE/MWJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/KREYENHAGEN/WHITMORE

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