FXUS65 KMSO 301442
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
842 AM MDT SAT OCT 30 2004

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL WASHINGTON WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR FLATHEAD LAKE FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. MANY LOCATIONS ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THEIR MAX TEMPERATURE. WILL ONLY UPDATE TEMPERATURES AT
LOCATIONS WHERE THEY ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR MAX...AS
AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH HEATING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY SO THE REMAINDER
OF THE TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. AGREE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN
ZONES...SO NO ADVISORIES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AHEAD OF AN VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COOL FRONT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.
WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND THE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THE CASE FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS CREATED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FORCING
WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DECREASE...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
SOME SNOW BANDING OR SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO LINGER UNTIL THE RIDGE FULLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS...WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATER MONDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN PRODUCER.  AN UPPER JET
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
WEST FLOW.  COLD FRONT TIMING AT THIS POINT IS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THAT TIMING HOLDS UP UNDER THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  WEDNESDAY THEN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL SEE
SUNDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE MOIST TROUGH OVER THE AREA. WILL SLOWLY DRY
OUT THE FORECAST DURING LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WEST COAST
RIDGING PRODUCES A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. &&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FLATHEAD LAKE 10AM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY...
ID...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE/KOCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/GILCHRIST/WHITMORE