000 FGUS75 KTFX 112127 ESFTFX 112127- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 227 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009 ...MONTANA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF FEBRUARY 2009... MONTANA WATER SUPPLY FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MISSOULA AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA. THE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2009 SUMMER SEASON PROJECTS WATER SUPPLIES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WATER SUPPLIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH A FEW SITES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND RUNOFF CONDITIONS FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE...70 PERCENT OR LESS...OR ABOVE AVERAGE...110 PERCENT OR MORE...SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAINS. JANUARY SAW WIDELY VARIABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL...BUT RANGED FROM A HIGH OF 71 DEGREES AT HEART BUTTE ON THE 19TH TO A LOW OF -42 AT WESTBY ON THE 15TH. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS. PRECIPITATION WAS VARIABLE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HEAVY SNOWS FELL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON THE 1ST AND 2ND WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING AT WHITEWATER AND EIGHT FOOT SNOW DRIFTS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. KALISPELL RECEIVED TWO FEET OF SNOW OVER THE TWO DAYS...WITH UP TO THREE FEET IN THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS. GREAT FALLS SET A DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD ON THE 2ND RECEIVING 6.2 INCHES OF SNOW. ANOTHER STORM AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THE 6TH AND 7TH...DROPPING UP TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5 INCHES NEAR HARDIN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT ON THE 9TH BROUGHT UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE WHITETAIL AND SCOBEY AREAS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED OVER MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ON THE 11TH AND AGAIN ON THE 13TH. A STORM SYSTEM THEN MOVED INTO THE STATE ON THE 14TH PRODUCING UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILED UNTIL THE 22ND WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT AGAIN BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. A STORM AFFECTED SOUTHERN MONTANA BRINGING UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS ON THE 24TH AND 25TH. ANOTHER 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVER AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON THE 27TH. ONE SITE TO NOTE...BOZEMAN RECORDED ONLY 0.11 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...THE 4TH DRIEST JANUARY OF RECORD AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1987. SNOWPACK... BY FEBRUARY 1...THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 60 TO 65 PERCENT OF SEASONAL SNOWPACK IN PLACE IN MONTANA. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AS OF FEBRUARY 1... PERCENT OF PERCENT OF AVERAGE LAST YEAR STATEWIDE 93 91 WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 90 89 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 97 98 PRECIPITATION... MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR JANUARY... PERCENT OF PERCENT OF AVERAGE LAST YEAR STATEWIDE 98 88 WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 106 98 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 89 79 MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR THE WATER YEAR... PERCENT OF PERCENT OF AVERAGE LAST YEAR STATEWIDE 102 98 WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 98 94 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 106 101 CALENDAR YEAR 2009 AND WATER YEAR 2009 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED CITIES ARE SHOWN BELOW... PERCENT OF NORMAL PERCENT OF NORMAL CALENDAR YEAR 2009 WATER YEAR 2009 CITY JAN 1 TO JAN 31 OCT 1 TO JAN 31 BILLINGS 53 107 BOZEMAN 18 66 BUTTE 28 109 CUT BANK 0 24 DILLON 15 59 GLASGOW 131 185 GREAT FALLS 66 110 HAVRE 85 107 HELENA 77 114 KALISPELL 118 104 LEWISTOWN 75 86 MILES CITY 21 99 MISSOULA 58 116 RESERVOIRS... MAJOR RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 1 PERCENT OF PERCENT OF AVERAGE LAST YEAR STATEWIDE 90 112 WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 126 101 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 78 118 PERCENT OF NORMAL RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 1 FOR SELECTED RESERVOIRS RESERVOIR ERCENT OF NORMAL FEB 1 FEB 1 2009 2008 BIGHORN RESERVOIR 111 102 CANYON FERRY RESERVOIR 101 89 CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR 77 72 FLATHEAD LAKE 97 94 FORT PECK LAKE 67 56 FRESNO RESERVOIR 143 88 GIBSON RESERVOIR 79 NA HEBGEN RESERVOIR 98 96 HUNGRY HORSE RESERVOIR 116 115 LAKE ELWELL / TIBER RESERVOIR 109 96 LAKE KOOCANUSA 150 149 LAKE SHERBURNE 237 114 LIMA RESERVOIR 93 54 NELSON RESERVOIR 105 90 PISHKIN RESERVOIR 104 50 SWIFT RESERVOIR 86 77 WILLOW CREEK RESERVOIR 138 120 STREAMFLOW... STREAMFLOW FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 1 THROUGH JULY 31...ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF PERCENT OF AVERAGE AVERAGE INDIVIDUAL BASINS STATEWIDE 81 TO 94 66 TO 132 WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 83 TO 93 75 TO 110 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 80 TO 96 66 TO 132 BELOW ARE AVERAGED RIVER BASIN RUNOFF FORECAST SUMMARIES FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE...70 OR LESS...OR ABOVE AVERAGE...110 OR MORE...SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN. FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE PROVIDED BY THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN PORTLAND...OREGON. FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE FROM THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN PLEASANT HILL...MISSOURI. ALL FORECASTS ARE IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA. MOST PROBABLE REASONABLE REASONABLE FORECAST MAXIMUM MINIMUM PERIOD /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/ COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN KOOTENAI RIVER LIBBY RESVR INFLOW APR-SEP 84 107 61 CLARK FORK ABOVE BLACKFOOT RIVER APR-SEP 99 155 44 ABOVE MISSOULA APR-SEP 102 149 55 BELOW MISSOULA APR-SEP 97 125 70 ST. REGIS APR-SEP 96 138 53 NEAR PLAINS APR-SEP 91 121 61 BLACKFOOT RIVER NEAR BONNER APR-SEP 100 140 59 BITTERROOT RIVER AT MOUTH APR-SEP 94 120 68 NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA FALLS APR-SEP 83 104 62 MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER NEAR WEST GLACIER APR-SEP 86 106 65 SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER HUNGRY HORSE RES INFLOW APR-SEP 94 122 66 FLATHEAD RIVER COLUMBIA FALLS APR-SEP 88 112 63 FLATHEAD LAKE INFLOW APR-SEP 89 117 62 SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN ST. MARY RIVER BABB NR APR-SEP 77 92 61 MISSOURI RIVER BASIN RED ROCK RIVER LIMA RES INFLOW APR-SEP 89 126 53 BEAVERHEAD RIVER CLARK CANYON INFLOW APR-SEP 87 147 26 BARRETTS APR-SEP 89 160 17 RUBY RIVER RUBY RESERVOIR INFLOW APR-SEP 86 116 56 BIG HOLE RIVER NEAR MELROSE APR-SEP 117 151 84 MADISON RIVER HEBGEN RES INFLOW APR-SEP 87 104 70 ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW APR-SEP 86 106 65 GALLATIN RIVER NEAR GALLATIN GATEWAY APR-SEP 97 118 76 LOGAN APR-SEP 97 131 64 MISSOURI RIVER TOSTON APR-SEP 96 128 63 FORT BENTON APR-SEP 97 131 64 VIRGELLE APR-SEP 98 134 62 NEAR LANDUSKY APR-SEP 94 127 60 BELOW FORT PECK DAM APR-SEP 96 131 60 SHEEP CREEK WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS APR-SEP 105 135 74 SUN RIVER GIBSON RES INFLOW APR-SEP 81 101 61 MARIAS RIVER NEAR SHELBY APR-SEP 66 109 23 MUSSELSHELL RIVER HARLOWTON APR-SEP 98 169 26 MILK RIVER WESTERN CROSSING APR-SEP 67 116 22 EASTERN CROSSING APR-SEP 77 152 39 YELLOWSTONE RIVER YELLOWSTN LK OUTLT...WY APR-SEP 98 114 81 CORWIN SPRINGS APR-SEP 100 116 84 NEAR LIVINGSTON APR-SEP 99 115 82 BILLINGS APR-SEP 100 126 73 MILES CITY APR-SEP 98 124 72 NEAR SIDNEY APR-SEP 99 125 73 BOULDER RIVER BIG TIMBER APR-SEP 108 133 83 STILLWATER RIVER NEAR ABSAROKEE APR-SEP 92 112 73 CLARKS FORK YELLOWSTONE RIVER NEAR BELFRY APR-SEP 97 113 82 LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER NEAR HARDIN APR-SEP 105 142 68 TONGUE RIVER TONGUE RIVER RES INFLOW APR-SEP 126 170 82 POWDER RIVER MOORHEAD APR-SEP 130 176 86 LOCATE APR-SEP 133 185 81 DEFINITIONS MOST PROBABLE FORECAST...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO DATE...THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WHAT THE ACTUAL RUNOFF VOLUME WILL BE THIS SEASON. REASONABLE MAXIMUM FORECAST...GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A TEN (10) PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED. REASONABLE MINIMUM FORECAST...GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A NINETY (90) PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED. SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX... THE SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX...SWSI...IS A MEASURE OF AVAILABLE SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. WATER USERS WHO RELY ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CAN USE THE INDEX TO EVALUATE SEASONAL SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES. THE SWSI ACCOUNTS FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK...MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION... STREAMFLOW...RESERVOIR STORAGE AND SOIL MOISTURE. SWSI VALUES ARE CALCULATED FOR 52 BASINS IN MONTANA. SWSI VALUES ARE PROVIDED BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA. NUMBER OF BASINS SWSI RATING SURFACE WATER CONDITION 2009 2008 -3.0 TO -4.0 EXTREMELY DRY 0 4 -2.0 TO -2.9 MODERATELY DRY 4 0 -1.0 TO -1.9 SLIGHTLY DRY 9 7 -0.9 TO +0.9 NEAR AVERAGE 28 32 +1.0 TO +1.9 SLIGHTLY WET 8 8 +2.0 TO +2.9 MODERATELY WET 2 1 +3.0 TO +4.0 EXTREMELY WET 1 0 NOT AVAILABLE 0 0 VALUES FOR SPECIFIC BASINS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2009 AND 2008 ARE LISTED BELOW... SWSI SWSI BASIN 2009 2008 TOBACCO RIVER -1.1 -0.3 KOOTENAI FT. STEELE TO LIBBY DAM -2.1 0.0 KOOTENAI RIVER BELOW LIBBY DAM 0.3 1.7 FISHER RIVER 1.0 0.1 YAAK RIVER -1.0 1.0 NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER -2.2 0.1 MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER -1.5 -0.5 SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER -0.2 -0.3 FLATHEAD RIVER AT COLUMBIA FALLS -1.3 0.1 SWAN RIVER -0.5 -1.4 FLATHEAD RIVER AT POLSON -1.0 -0.9 MISSION VALLEY 1.2 -3.7 LITTLE BITTERROOT RIVER -0.8 -1.5 CLARK FORK RIVER ABOVE MILLTOWN 1.1 -0.4 BLACKFOOT RIVER 0.5 -0.3 BITTERROOT RIVER 0.4 0.3 CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW BITTERROOT RIVER 0.7 -1.7 CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW FLATHEAD RIVER -0.4 0.0 BEAVERHEAD RIVER -0.2 0.4 RUBY RIVER -0.5 -0.6 BIG HOLE RIVER 1.3 0.6 BOULDER RIVER (JEFFERSON) 0.9 -1.3 JEFFERSON RIVER 1.7 1.2 MADISON RIVER -0.4 0.8 GALLATIN RIVER 0.9 1.2 MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE CANYON FERRY 0.2 0.4 MISSOURI RIVER BELOW CANYON FERRY 0.3 -0.2 SMITH RIVER 0.5 0.5 SUN RIVER -0.4 -0.4 TETON RIVER 0.3 0.4 BIRCH/DUPUYER CREEKS -1.3 -3.5 UPPER JUDITH RIVER 1.1 -1.8 MARIAS RIVER ABOVE TIBER -1.4 -0.3 MARIAS RIVER BELOW TIBER -1.2 -1.4 MUSSELSHELL RIVER 1.1 -0.6 MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE FT. PECK 0.6 -1.1 MISSOURI RIVER BELOW FT. PECK -2.4 -3.4 ST. MARY RIVER -2.4 1.5 MILK RIVER 0.5 -0.4 DEARBORN RIVER NEAR CRAIG -1.0 0.2 YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE LIVINGSTON 0.8 1.7 SHIELDS RIVER 0.2 -0.1 BOULDER RIVER (YELLOWSTONE) 2.2 0.5 STILLWATER RIVER 0.3 0.5 ROCK/RED LODGE CREEKS 0.1 -3.1 CLARKS FORK RIVER 0.6 2.0 YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE BIGHORN RIVER 0.8 1.4 BIGHORN RIVER BELOW BIGHORN LAKE 0.9 -0.1 LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER 1.8 -0.3 YELLOWSTONE RIVER BELOW BIGHORN RIVER 0.9 0.7 TONGUE RIVER 3.1 0.2 POWDER RIVER 2.4 1.8 OUTLOOK... THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY INDICATES THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA...AND A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO TENDENCIES FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...STATISTICAL TOOLS NO TENDENCY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO TEMPERATURE TENDENCIES FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR PRECIPITATION...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO TENDENCY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE. THE NEXT WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR 2009 WILL BE ISSUED BY MARCH 15. $$ .END/LOSS