FXUS62 KTBW 202028
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
327 PM EST MON JAN 20 2003

INVIGORATING WARM-UP UNDERWAY TODAY...IN LINE WITH THE JOYFUL MOOD
AROUND THESE PARTS.  EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE BUT STILL PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE PLEASANTNESS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR SETS ITS SITES ON THE EASTERN U.S...
WITH CHILL-DOWN SLATED TO END THE WORK WEEK.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED ANCHORED TO THE S HALF OF THE STATE
RIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUE AT 500 MB.  MODIFYING AIR MASS MEANS AN END TO THE HEAVY
FROSTS FROM THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS STILL DRY ENOUGH
AND RADIATIONAL CONDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TONIGHT...SO RURAL LIGHTER
FROST FROM PASCO CO N A GOOD BET AS CURRENTLY FCST.

TUE THROUGH WED WILL EACH WARM A COUPLE DEGREES ON TODAY...WITH
SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE WED OVER INTERIOR AND S PORTIONS.  EXPECT SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG WED MORNING...PERHAPS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ADVERTISED GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE BUT WILL LEAVE AS "PATCHY"
UNTIL DWPT TREND DEVELOPS LATER TUES.

SHEAR AXIS SLIDES THROUGH AHEAD OF SFC FRONT WED NIGHT...WITH
THINNING BAND OF MOISTURE.  PCPN WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST AND SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE N ZONES AS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED GIVEN LACK
OF ANY REAL S/SE FLOW.  FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING BREEZY
CONDS LATER THU.  TEMPS MAY FALL STEADILY DURING THE AFTN...ESP N
OF TAMPA BAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO PLUNGE IN.

EXTENDED...FRI-MON...
POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO
THE PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PROBABLE FREEZING TEMPS NORTH
FRI-SUN MORNINGS AND AROUND FREEZING INTO AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE CENTRAL PNSULA SAT MRNG. COLD MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S FRI-
SAT WILL MODIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY INTO THE 60S SUN-MON. SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY EACH DAY WITH JUST BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLDS STREAMING ACROSS THE PENINSULA. MORE INFORMATIONS ON
THIS NEXT COLD EPISODE TO FOLLOW IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS/DISCUSSIONS.

FIRE WX:DEW POINTS WITHIN AMBIENT DRY AIR MASS TO RISE A LITTLE INTO
TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY MAX TEMPS ALSO RISE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MID-LATE
AFTN RH VALUES TO TUMBLE TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR AREAS. NO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL THROUGH WED...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.  BY WED NIGHT...SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH CAUTION AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONT...AND
AT LEAST CAUTION CONDS EXPECTED THU THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG
CAA AND INCREASING N GRADIENT DEVELOPING.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 034/070 044/073 000-
TPA 045/068 053/071 0000
GIF 045/072 052/074 0000
SRQ 043/067 050/070 0000
FMY 042/071 048/074 0000

.TBW...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH SUNSET FOR SUMTER...POLK...
       HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...AND DESOTO COUNTIES AS WELL AS INTERIOR
       SECTIONS OF ALL COASTAL COUNTIES...EXCEPT PINELLAS.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY FOR THE COUNTIES OF POLK...HARDEE
       DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...EASTERN CHARLOTTE...AND EASTERN LEE.

BSG/DMR