Mathematical Modeling and Analysis
Mathematical Modeling and Analysis
Gerardo Chowell
Mathematical Modeling and Analysis, T-7
Mail Stop B284
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fax: +1.505.665.5757
Email: gchowell@t7.lanl.gov
ASU webpage
H. Nishiura, G. Chowell. Rurality and pandemic influenza: geographic heterogeneity in the risks of infection and death in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, from 1918-19. The New Zealand Medical Journal. (forthcoming, 2008)
M. Nuno, T. A. Reichert, G. Chowell , A. B. Gumel. Protecting residential care facilities from pandemic influenza. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 2008;105(30):10625-30.
G. Chowell , P. Diaz-Duenas, D. Chowell, S. Hews, J. Ceja-Espiritu, J. M. Hyman, C. Castillo-Chavez. Diagnostic delays and epidemiology of dengue fever during the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico. Dengue Bulletin (forthcoming)
G. Chowell , N.W. Hengartner, C.E. Ammon, J.M. Hyman. Learning from the past to prepare for the future: Modeling the impact of hypothetical interventions during the great influenza pandemic of 1918. CHANCE 21(2) , 55-60 (2008)
G. Chowell , C.A. Torre, C. Munyaco-Escate, L. Suarez -Ognio, R. Lopez-Cruz, J.M. Hyman, C. Castillo-Chavez. Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006. Epidemiology and Infection, 2008 Apr 8:1-11. (Epub ahead of print).
G. Chowell, H. Nishiura. Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza. Physics of Life Reviews, 2007;5:50-77 (pdf)
G. Chowell, L.M.A. Bettencourt, N. Johnson, W.J. Alonso, C. Viboud. The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: Spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 2008;275(1634):501-9 (published online)
T. L. Burr and G. Chowell. Signatures of non-homogeneous mixing in disease outbreaks. Math. Comp. Model. 2008;48:122-140 (pdf)
H. Nishiura and G. Chowell. Household and community transmission of the Asian influenza A (H2N2) and influenza B viruses in 1957 and 1961. Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Pub. Health. 2007;38(6):1075-1083 (pdf)
A.B. Gumel, M. Nuno, G. Chowell. Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan. Can. J. Inf. Dis. & Med. Microb. (in press).
G. Chowell, M.A. Miller, C. Viboud. Seasonal influenza in the United States, France and Australia: Transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiology and Infection 2008;136(6):852-64. Epub 2007 Jul 18. (pdf) (Supplement)
M. Chaffer, A. L. Rivas, D. Elad, O. Koren , S. Garazi, G. Chowell, S. J. Schwager. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-based assessment of a serological test used to detect Johne's Disease in Israeli dairy herds. Can. J. Vet. Res. (to appear, 2007)
L.M.A. Bettencourt, R.M. Ribeiro, G. Chowell, T. Lant, C. Castillo-Chavez. Towards real time epidemiology: data assimilation, modeling and anomaly detection of health surveillance data streams. Zeng et al.(Eds.) Intelligence and security informatics: Biosurveillance. Proceedings of the 2nd NSF Workshop, Biosurveillance, 2007.Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2007
G. Chowell, C. E. Ammon, N. W. Hengartner,
J. M. Hyman. Estimating the reproduction number from the initial
phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.
Math Biosci Eng. 2007 Jul;4(3):457-70.
R. I. Rodr?guez-Vivas, A. L Rivas, G. Chowell,
H. Fragoso, R. Rosario, Z. Garcia, S. D Smith, J. J. Williams, S. J. Schwager. Spatial
distribution of acaricide profiles (Boophilus microplus strains
susceptible or resistant to acaricides) in southeastern
Mexico. Veterinary Parasitology 2007 May 15;146(1-2):158-69. Epub 2007 Mar 8.(pdf)
M. Nuno, G. Chowell, A. Gumel. Assessing the role of
basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing
pandemic infuenza: Scenarios for the US, UK, and the Netherlands.
J R Soc Interface 2007 Jun 22;4(14):505-21. (pdf)
G. Chowell, P. Diaz-Duenas, J.C. Miller, P.W. Fenimore,
J.M. Hyman, C. Castillo-Chavez. Estimation of the reproduction number
of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data. Math. Biosci. 2007 Aug;208(2):571-89 (pdf)
G. Chowell, H. Nishiura, L.M.A. Bettencourt. Comparative
estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from
daily case notification data. J R Soc Interface 4, 155-166 (2007) (pdf)
M. Nuno, G. Chowell, X. Wang, C. Castillo-Chavez. On the
role of cross-immunity and vaccination in the survival of less-fit
flu strains. Theor. Pop. Biol. 71, 20-29 (2007) (pdf)
T.L. Burr, G. Chowell. Observation and model error
effects on parameter estimates in susceptible-infected-recovered
epidemic model. Far East J. Theor. Stat. 19(2), 163-183
(2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, F. Sanchez. Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever.
J. Env. Health 68 (10) Jun, 60-3 (2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, C. E. Ammon, N. W. Hengartner, J. M. Hyman.
Estimation of the Reproductive number of the Spanish
Flu Epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland. Proceedings of the Second
European Influenza Conference (St-Julians, Malta, September,
2005). Vaccine 24, 6747-6750 (2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, P. Diaz-Duenas, R. Bustos-Saldana,
A. Aleman-Mireles, and V. Fet. Epidemiological and Clinical
Characteristics of Scorpionism in Colima, Mexico
(2000-2001). Toxicon 47(7), 753-758 (2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, A. Cintron-Arias, S.
Del Valle, F. Sanchez, B. Song, J. M. Hyman, H. W.
Hethcote, and C. Castillo-Chavez. Mathematical applications associated with the deliberate release
of infectious agents. Modeling The Dynamics of Human Diseases: Emerging Paradigms and Challenges.
AMS Cotemporary Mathematics Series Vol. 410, pp. 51-71.
Gumel A. (Chief Editor), Castillo-Chavez, C., Clemence, D.P. and
R.E. Mickens. (pdf)
G. Chowell, C. E. Ammon, N. W. Hengartner, J. M. Hyman.
Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918
in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical
interventions. J. Theor. Biol. 241(2), 193-204 (2006) (pdf)
A. L. Rivas, B. Kunsberg, G. Chowell, S. D. Smith, J. M. Hyman, S. J. Schwager. Human-mediated foot-and-mouth disease epidemic dispersal: disease and vector clusters. J. Vet. Med. B 53, 1-10 (2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, A. L. Rivas, N. W. Hengartner, J. M. Hyman, C. Castillo-Chavez. Critical response to post-outbreak vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease. Modeling The Dynamics of Human Diseases: Emerging Paradigms and Challenges. AMS Cotemporary Mathematics Series Vol. 410, pp. 73-87. Gumel A. (Chief Editor), Castillo-Chavez, C., Clemence, D.P. and R.E. Mickens.(pdf)
G. Chowell, P. Diaz-Duenas, and D. Chowell. The dynamics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Colima, Mexico (1999-2002). Scand. J. Infect. Dis. 37(11), 858-862 (2005)(pdf)
J. Gjorgjieva, K. Smith, G. Chowell , F. Sanchez, J. Snyder, and C. Castillo-Chavez. The Role of Vaccination in the Control of SARS. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2(4), 753-769 (2005) (pdf)
G. Chowell, A. L. Rivas, N. W. Hengartner, J. M. Hyman, C. Castillo-Chavez. The Role of Spatial Mixing in the Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Prev. Vet. Med. 73, 297-314 (2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, E. Shim, F. Brauer, P. Diaz-Duenas, J. M. Hyman, C. Castillo-Chavez. Modeling the transmission dynamics of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis: Application to the 2003 Outbreak in Mexico. Stat. Med. 25(11), 1840-1857 (2006) (pdf)
G. Chowell, A. L. Rivas, S.D. Smith, J. M. Hyman. Identification of case clusters and counties of greater infective connectivity in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Am. J. Vet. Res. 67(1), 1-12 (2006)(pdf)
G. Chowell, J. M. Hyman, P. Diaz-Duenas, N. W. Hengartner. Predicting scorpion sting incidence in an endemic region using climatological variables. Int. J. Env. Health Res. 15(6), 425-435 (2005) (pdf)
G. Chowell, N. W. Hengartner, C. Castillo-Chavez, P. W. Fenimore, and J. M. Hyman. The Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The cases of Congo and Uganda. J. Theor. Biol. 229(1), 119-126 (2004) (pdf)
G. Chowell , C. Castillo-Chavez, P.W. Fenimore, C. Kribs-Zaleta, L. Arriola, J.M. Hyman. Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS. Emerg. Inf. Dis. 10 (7) (2004)(pdf), Supplementary materials (pdf)
G. Chowell, P. W. Fenimore, M. A. Castillo-Garsow and C. Castillo-Chavez. SARS Outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism. J. Theor. Biol. 24, 1-8 (2003) (pdf)
G. Chowell and C. Castillo-Chavez. Worst-Case Scenarios and Epidemics. In: T Banks and C. Castillo-Chavez (eds.), Bioterrorism: Mathematical and Modeling Approaches in Homeland Security. SIAM's series Frontiers in Applied Mathematics (2003) (pdf)
G. Chowell, J. M. Hyman, S. Eubank, C. Castillo-Chavez. Scaling Laws for the Movement of People between Locations in a Large City. Phys. Rev. E 68, 066102 (2003) (pdf)
P. Diaz, G. Chowell, T. C. D'Auria, R. C. Lloyd, C. Castillo-Chavez, Pediatric electrocardiograph abnormalities following Centruroides limpidus tecomanus scorpion envenomation, Toxicon 45(1), 27-31 (2005) (pdf)
G. Chowell, P. Diaz-Duenas, C. Castillo-Chavez, Characterization of an oubreak of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in Mexico, 2003. Dig. J. Ophtalm. 11/1 (2005) (online)
G. Chowell. PhD Thesis: Mathematical models of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases: Assessing the effects of public health interventions on disease spread. Adviser: Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez. Cornell University (2005) (pdf)
Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Carlos Castillo-Garsow, Gerardo Chowell, David Murillo, Melanie Pshaenich. Promoting research and minority participation via undergraduate research in the mathematical sciences. MTBI/SUMS-Arizona State University. Proceedings of the conference on promoting undergraduate research in mathematics. (pdf)
