FXUS63 KFSD 180824
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SHRTWV CONTS TO APPCH AND MOVE INTO AREA. WHILE SHWRS ACTVTY IS 
RATHER BLAH RIGHT NOW...AND WILL NOT REALLY GET THAT EXCITING... 
EXPCT A SLW AND STEADY INCRS IN AREAL CVRG OVER FSCT AREA NEXT SVRL 
HRS. STILL WILL KEEP SHWR MENTION IN THE SCT CATEGORY AND DONT EXPCT 
A LOT IN THE WAY OF AMTS. THIS SHUD SLWLY END FROM THE SW LATE TDA 
AND THIS EVE. ANOTHER WK SHRTWV COMPLICATES THE PICTURE BY DRIFTG 
INTO AREA FROM THE W TNGT. WILL GO WITH IDEA WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 
OF THIS FEATURE PROLONGING SHWRS NERN HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE MID 
LVL MOISTR WILL STILL BE AVBL...BUT NOT MENTIONING REDVLPMNT FAR 
S/SW WHERE DECENT MID LVL DRYING WILL BE TAKING PLACE.

WHILE THERE IS A SLGT CHC A FEW SHWRS CUD THEREFORE LINGER FAR E/NE 
INTO TUE MRNG...AM BETTING DRYING WILL BE STG ENUF AS SHRTWV MOVES 
NEWD OUT OF AREA THAT PCPN WILL BE GONE BY TUE MRNG...SO WILL KEEP 
MENTN OUT FOR TUE AND TUE NGT.

EXPCT LWR LVL MOISTR TO INCRS OVER AREA TDA AND CIGS TO LWR 
ACCORDGLY. PRBLM FOR TUE WILL BE THESE LWR CLDS CLRNG OUT OF THE 
NERN HALF OF CWA. AM GOING WITH THE PRTL CLRNG FOR NOW BUT SOME QSTN 
FAR E/NE. THIS OF COURSE WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFRNCE IN TUE HI TEMPS 
AFTER A COOLER DAY TDA FROM CLD CVR AND ERLY SFC FLOW. AM GOING WITH 
WHAT SEEMS MIDDLE GROUND ON HI TEMPS TUE...WARMER OF COURSE BUT WITH 
FASTER/STGR CLRNG CUD BE WRMR THAT WHAT I HAVE.

FCST MODELS SEEM A LTL BETTER THAN USUAL ON CONSISTENCY WITH EACH 
OTHER REST OF FCST AND AM NOT MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES. STILL SOME 
QSTNS ON PCPN WED BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SUPPORT AND MOISTR. IN FACT 
THIS IS WHERE THE BIGGEST MODEL DIFFRNCE APPEARS AS ETA SHOWS VERY 
GOOD SUPPORT AND GFS VERY WEAK DESPITE MODELS LOOKING NOT TOO 
DIFFERENT IN OVERALL PATTERN.

STILL QSTNS ON THU PCPN AND THATS WHY WE HAVE BEEN GOING CHC ALL 
ALONG...SO WILL KEEP. DRY SLOTTING AND SYS MOVG UP W AND N OF AREA 
RISE SOME DOUNT...BUT CONVECTIVE PCPN QUITE PSBL SO WILL KEEP PRETTY 
MUCH AS IS FOR NOW. SAME FOR ENDG PCPN BEFORE FRI NGT AT LEAST TIL 
THAT STG SHRTWV FOR FRI NGT SHOWS MORE CONSISTENT SIGNS OF AFFECTG 
AREA THEN AND MOVG A LTL FRTHR N. MORE OR LESS DRY WRLY AND MILD 
FLOW SHUD TAKE OVER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
 
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE. 
IA...NONE. 
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
WILLIAMS