FXUS04 KWBC 081841 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 241 PM EDT SAT MAY 08 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAY 09/0000 UTC THRU MAY 10/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...GTLKS EWD INTO NY STATE/SERN NEW ENG... LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT OVRRNG RNFL/CNVCTN FOR THE GTLKS REGION AGAIN THIS PD..AS NEXT WELL DEFINED S/WV MOVG EWD OUT OF THE NRN HI PLAINS ENHANCES LIFT ALG THE WRMFNT LIFTING INTO THE AREA AND POOLING OF REASONABLY HI PWS CONTS VCNTY OF THE BNDRY. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A REAL GOOD HANDLE ON THE S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING RNFL PATN..WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK PROBS. THUS..MANUAL QPF LEANED STGLY TWDS THE ETA SOLN HERE. S/WV WL BE A STEADY ENUF MOVER SUCH THAT AN AXIS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINS IS XPCD FM SRN WI EWD INTO SRN NY STATE/NRN PA/SWRN MA AND CT..WITH SOME ISOLD GTR THAN 1 INCH TOTALS PSBL. AGAIN..GFS LOOKS TOO HVY WITH ITS RNFL OVR EXTRM NRN WI AND NRN MI DUE TO THE FEEDBACK PROB..WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO BE FARTHER S IN THE GTLKS REGION..AS PER THE ETA SOLN. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VLY... CNVCTV ACTIVITY SHLD REALLY INCREASE SUN AFTN ALG WRN PTN OF THE WRMFNT OVR THE UPR MS VLY..AS LOW LVL CNVGNC INCREASES AHD OF THE DVLPG SFC LOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS INTO THE BNDRY AHD OF THE STG H5 TROF DROPPING SEWD INTO SCNTRL CANADA. AGAIN..PREFER THE ETA QPF SOLN HERE..WHICH IS HVIER ACRS THE UPR MS VLY LTR SUN AFTN. GENLY XPC SOME GTR THAN 0.50 INCH RNFL AMTS PTNS OF MN..WITH LESSER AMTS INTO WI AND BACK INTO THE HI PLAINS. ...SRN/CNTRL TX NWD INTO ERM OK/WRN AR... INDICATIONS FM BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE THAT THERE WON'T BE A REPEAT OF THE ISOLD VRY HVY RAINS OVR ERN TX AGAIN THIS PD..AS HAS HAPPENED THIS MRNG/AFTN. BOTH MDLS..AND ESP THE GFS..DRY OUT THE REGION..RELATIVELY SPEAKING..WITH THE INITIAL AXIS OF PWS GTR THAN 1.75 INCHES REDUCED TO 1.25 INCHES SAT NGT INTO SUN. ALSO..THE MDLS LIFT A S/WV OUT OF TX NNEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO..BELIEVE COVERAGE OF CNVCTN WL INCREASE..IN A SCTTD FASHION..BUT THREAT WL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESSENED FOR REAL HVY RAINS IN ANY ONE SPOT. THUS..MANUAL QPF HAS AN AXIS OF GENLY LGT RAINS SRN/CNTRL TX NNEWD INTO ERN OK AND WRN AR..IN LN WITH THE GFS QPF SOLN. TERRY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 10/00Z 0.01 520034 522007 535982 552951 555936 549918 538902 528888 515880 502878 483879 471877 461868 457849 456824 451775 438729 422687 417678 415673 412670 408668 402671 400675 398680 397688 396697 397716 397725 397733 392751 392757 393763 396773 399781 400792 401802 402812 402835 403854 403869 404881 406893 406913 404920 404923 402936 401944 400953 399965 400978 399987 398994 399001 399004 402007 403008 408010 412009 419004 425998 430992 441983 448981 455980 460983 463990 463999 454022 451027 450035 451046 456059 461067 466072 474069 479063 486060 489070 489098 487125 476124 471126 469130 469137 463140 459140 454142 450149 449158 449169 449176 448182 448190 450192 456189 459186 461182 463174 463169 471175 477180 488182 493184 495186 496190 495194 493198 465215 458217 454218 455219 459222 464224 473224 482224 491228 499234 508241 516240 523234 529223 535201 538186 539153 538145 533138 529130 527127 525122 522112 520105 520100 517087 514081 512076 511070 511052 511044 514040 520034 0.01 383811 382808 379805 375804 370798 365800 361802 356812 351818 348823 346827 344832 345835 344843 345846 348848 355840 359833 365823 367819 373817 379816 381815 383811 0.01 379944 380939 379934 376927 371925 367926 359930 347937 335945 322952 317955 307956 285959 279963 272966 259967 255966 252970 254976 261987 265992 271994 276996 285996 299995 304994 307991 309987 308983 306979 304977 305973 337972 361962 369957 375953 379944 0.01 353044 354034 352029 350027 343025 334028 326026 320026 306022 302021 298021 292021 287023 284028 286034 290040 295043 299048 305051 313052 330051 347049 351047 353044 0.25 453963 462960 469956 475951 479947 486942 491941 498945 506953 513951 523949 532945 534934 527923 518917 506914 478909 468910 465910 459912 454919 445938 443943 441950 442958 445962 453963 0.25 525202 525196 523188 522182 527180 529174 528168 525164 521158 514152 503148 500147 497149 499159 500163 501173 506183 511191 519199 525202 0.25 493010 492996 492983 491969 489966 486964 480962 477963 475967 472976 472986 471999 470008 469014 470021 474024 478024 486019 491014 493010 0.25 437762 434749 429736 425725 420712 416704 412700 408701 406710 407721 407739 406748 406759 409772 411782 412793 413805 413825 415838 417873 416899 415919 417926 420927 424924 426919 439888 446850 445803 441780 437762 0.25 353831 353830 354830 354829 354828 353827 352828 350830 350831 351832 352832 353831 0.50 461952 470944 474937 473929 468924 463923 459925 456932 450950 454955 457954 461952 0.50 426739 423729 419723 415718 413722 414725 414733 413741 411748 410757 413774 416791 419808 421827 422845 423862 423875 420898 420906 424907 432889 439862 443833 441801 430751 426739 1.00 432792 430774 428770 427769 427777 428790 430794 432792 $$